the german wine market - structure and trends – by d. hoffmann geisenheim research institut...
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The German Wine Market
- Structure and Trends –
by
D. Hoffmann
Geisenheim Research Institut
Germany, Sept. 2005
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Germany: Consumption of Alcoholic Beverages
0
5
10
15
20
25
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Liter / capita Beer
Wine sparkling wine Spirits Beer
a)
b)
c)
Wine sparkling wine Spirits
Beer
Wine
Spirits
Sekt
a) Schätzung. - b) Einschl. Wermut- und Kräuterwein (ohne Schaumwein); jeweils Weinwirtschaftsjahr (1.9. bis 31.8.). Ab dem Weinwirtschaftsjahr 2000/2001 vom 1.8 - 31.7. - c) Einschließlich Spirituosen-Mischgetränke, umgerechnet auf einen durchschnittlichen Alkoholgehalt von 33%. Source: Berechnungen des ifo Instituts auf der Grundlage von Daten der amtlichen Statistik und von Branchenverbänden sowie eigene Berechnungen des Fachgebietes Betriebswirtschaft und Marktforschung, Forschungsanstalt Geisenheim im Auftrag des Deutschen Weininstituts.
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1) Wirtschaftsjahre 1.9 - 31.8., 2) Ab der Periode 00/01 erstreckt sich das Weinwirtschaftsjahr vom 1.8. – 31.7.,
3) ab 1991 einschl. der neuen Bundesländer; 4) at the end of the period
Quelle: Weinmarktbilanz des Deutschen Weinbauverbandes, Statistisches Bundesamt, Wiesbaden und eigene Berechnungen
durch das Fachgebiet Betriebswirtschaft und Marktforschung, Geisenheim
Germany: Wine Market
Production, Stock, Foreign Trade, Consumption in 1000 hl
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
2)1)
German wineproduction
Import
Export3)
stock 4)
total consumption
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(indoors)
11,2(10,1)Mio. hl
= 100 %
85 % (83 %)
Wine and sparkling wine
15 % (17 %) sparkling wine
private consumption(outdoors)
stillwine - total -
100 %
private consumption
100 %
Direct-purchasingfrom the producer
18 % (23 %)
82 %(77 %)
17 % (19 %)
83 %(81 %)
off-trade
19,4(19,6)Mio. hl
2,9(3,4)
Mio. hl
16,5(16,2)Mio. hl
2,3(2,4)
Mio. hl
3,0(3,7)
Mio. hl
13,5(12,5)Mio. hl
The market for still and sparkling wine in Germany (2000) and 2004 (in Mio. hl und %)
Quelle: Erstellt nach Daten der Weinmarktbilanz des Deutschen Weinbauverbandes, des GfK-Haushaltspanels sowie eigene Erhebungen und Berechnungen durch das Fachgebiet Betriebswirtschaft und Marktforschung, Geisenheim im Auftrag des Deutschen Weininstituts.
11,2(10,1)Mio. hl
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Sales of still wine purchased in the distribution channels for household consumption in Germany in 2004
8 % 0,9 Mio. hl
3,0 Mio. hl
0,55 Mio. hl
0,55 Mio. hl
2,8 Mio. hl 25 %
30 %
5 %
5 %
27 %
Small groceries
Supermarkets
Discounter Aldi
Other discounters
Others
Specialists
11,2(10,1)
Mio. hl
Quelle: Erstellt nach Daten der Weinmarktbilanz des Deutschen Weinbauverbandes, des GfK-Haushaltspanels
sowie eigene Erhebungen und Berechnungen durch das Fachgebiet Betriebswirtschaft und Marktforschung, Geisenheim
im Auftrag des Deutschen Weininstituts.
Off-trade
- total -
3,4 Mio. hl
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Development in the distribution channelsof bottled German wine in Germany
- Changes per quater in comparison to the previous year by information from selected wine companies in Germany -
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
I00
II00
III00
IV00
I01
II01
III01
IV01
I02
II02
III02
IV02
I03
II03
III03
IV03
I04
II04
III04
IV04
Supermarkets Specialists Restaurant Direct Export
* Salden (Differenz der Meldeanteile) der befragten Unternehmen mit der Angabe einer positiven (+) oder negativen (-) Einschätzung. Die Salden geben die Tendenz der Firmeneinschätzung an.Quelle:Quartalsumfrage des Bundesverbandes der Deutschen Weinkellereien und des Weinfachhandels e. V. sowie des Fachgebietes Betriebswirtschaft und Marktforschung: bei 279 Unternehmen der Weinwirtschaft in Deutschland mit einem gemeinsamen Jahresumsatz von 1,33 Mrd. Euro, erstellt durch das Fachgebiet Betriebswirtschaft und Marktforschung der Forschungsanstalt Geisenheim.
increased
decreased
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Distribution channels in Germany in 2003 and 2004
•* m. W. : with estates /cooperatives
• * o. W. : without estates / cooperatives
(Basis: bis einschließlich 2002 17.000 berichtende Haushalte. Ab 2003 13.000 berichtende Haushalte)
(Share of the Channel %)
East West
20
20
30
55 63 23
54 4 5
3 34
31 32 33 25 27
19 1817 30
24
35353420
25 25
877 97 8
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2003 m. W.*
2003 o. W.*
2004 o. W.*
2003 m. W.*
2003 o. W.*
2004 o. W.*
small groceries
Supermarkets
Discounter Aldi
Otherdiscounters
estates /cooperatives
Specialists
Others
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Germany: Distribution Channels of Wine (Purchase of Private Households: % by Volume)
Source : Erstellt nach Daten des GfK-Haushaltspanels durch das Fachgebiet Betriebswirtschaft und Marktforschung, Geisenheim
im Auftrag des Deutschen Weininstituts.
(Basis: bis einschließlich 2002 17.000 berichtende Haushalte. Ab 2003 13.000 berichtende Haushalte)
6 7 5 5 4 5 3 5 38 8 6 7 6 5 4
3 32 2 2 1
17 16
13 1417 17 18 19
22 23
17 17 18 18 19 20 22 23 24
24 23 23 22 23
8 7 8 8 7 7 7 6
47 01
1819
21 2120 19 19
21
2323 2423
7
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
sm all groceries
superm arket
hyperm arket
Aldi
other discount
producer (direct)
Cash & Carry
specialis ts
others
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Germany: Share of the Colour of Wines
(Purchase of Private Households: % by Volume)
Source : Erstellt nach Daten des GfK-Haushaltspanels durch das Fachgebiet Betriebswirtschaft und Marktforschung, Geisenheim,
im Auftrag des Deutschen Weininstituts.
(Basis: bis einschließlich 2002 17.000 berichtende Haushalte. Ab 2003 13.000 berichtende Haushalte)
29 29 27 26 24 23 27
64 63 63 65 68 69 66
7 8 8 7
2626
6667
78910 7
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
White wine Red wine Rosé wine
69 67 69 68 64 61 59 56 59
21 24 25 25 28 31 33 34
10 9 6 7 9 8 10
33
8 8
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
White wine Red wine Rosé wine
Imported wine German wine
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Germany: Import of Wines(Category of Quality, Colour of Wines)
- Volume -
0
500.000
1.000.000
1.500.000
2.000.000
2.500.00019
85
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
*
VQPRD white VQPRD red/rosé table wine white table wine red/rosé
1)
1) Umstellungseffekt der statistischen Erfassung durch den Wegfall der Importformalitäten an den Grenzen (Einführung des Binnenmarktes). * Schätzung
Source: Erstellt nach den Daten des Statistischen Bundesamtes, Außenhandel, Fachserie 7, durch den Deutschen Weinbauverband
sowie das Fachgebiet Betriebswirtschaft und Marktforschung, Geisenheim, im Auftrag des Deutschen Weininstituts.
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Germany: Import of Wines (Category of Quality, Colour of Wines)
(Average Value per Bottles: € / hl)
0,00
100,00
200,00
300,0019
85
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
*
VQPRD white VQPRD red/rosé table wine white table wine red/rosé
1)
1) Umstellungseffekt der statistischen Erfassung durch den Wegfall der Importformalitäten an den Grenzen (Einführung des Binnenmarktes). * Schätzung
Source: Erstellt nach den Daten des Statistischen Bundesamtes, Außenhandel, Fachserie 7, durch den Deutschen Weinbauverband
sowie das Fachgebiet Betriebswirtschaft und Marktforschung, Geisenheim, im Auftrag des Deutschen Weininstituts.
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Germany: Import of Wines in Bottles from »Europe«- Volume -
France
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
*
hl
Italy
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
*
hl
Spain
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
table wine red/rosé table wine whiteVQPRD red/rosé VQPRD white
hl
1)
Source: Data of the Federal Statistical Office, foreign trade, Serie 7, different years.
1) Change of import reporting system (introduction of the common market)
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Germany: Import of Wines in Bottles from the»New World«- Volume -
USA
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
*
hl
Chile
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
*
hl
Source: Data of the Federal Statistical Office, foreign trade, Serie 7, different years.
Australia
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
*
table wine red/rosé table wine white
hl
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Germany: Import of Wines in Bottles from the»New World«- Volume -
South - Afrika
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
*
hl
Newzealand
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4*
table w ine w hite table w ine red/rosé
hl
Argentina
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
*
hl
Source: Data of the Federal Statistical Office, foreign trade, Serie 7, different years.
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Germany: Import of Wines in Bulk from »Europe«- Volume -
France
0
500.000
1.000.000
1.500.000
2.000.000
2.500.000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
*
hl
Spain
0
500.000
1.000.000
1.500.000
2.000.000
2.500.000
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
*
VQPRD white VQPRD red/rosétable wine white table wine red
hl
1)Italia
0
500.000
1.000.000
1.500.000
2.000.000
2.500.000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
*
hl
Source: Data of the Federal Statistical Office, foreign trade, Serie 7, different years.
1) Change of import reporting system (introduction of the common market)
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Germany: Import of Wines in Bulk from » New World«- Volume -
USA
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
*
hl
Chile
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
*
hl
Australia
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
198
5
198
61
987
198
8
198
9
199
01
991
199
2
199
3
199
41
995
199
6
199
7
199
81
999
200
0
200
1
200
22
003
200
4
tablewine white tablewine red/rosé
hl
Source: Data of the Federal Statistical Office, foreign trade, Serie 7, different years.
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Germany: Import of Wines in Bulk from » New World«- Volume -
South-Afrika
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
*
hl
table w ine w hite table w ine red/rosé
Argentina
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
*
hl
Newzealand
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
*
hl
Source: Data of the Federal Statistical Office, foreign trade, Serie 7, different years.
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Summary:
The German Wine Market
is changing from Europe to New World
is changing from VDQPRD to Table Wines
continues to change from white to red
is very competitive in terms of price and quality
is demanding innovations
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‘Terroir or Brand‘
by
D. Hoffmann
Geisenheim, Sept. 2004
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Situation:a comfortable situation for consumers
a large number of shops offering wines
a large number of wines on the shelf (100 – 600 wines) in all price segments
wines from different regions, varieties, producers...
But the decision is difficult,
because different wines from the same origin
the same variety
with different prices
How to find the best price / quality relation ?
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Terroir / Origin
a new term came up
terroir defines the impact of
• soil
• climate / weather
• tradition (style of wine, variety ......)
a confusing number of various definitions exists
Therefore: terroir describes very individual
philosophies than a scientific term
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Brandis made by people, using
• land, sites (terroir)
• varieties
• vineyard management
• wine making
• philosophy
• an individual communication system (persons, a name, a
sign......)
Each family with his estate is a brand !
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What is about the impact of terroir or brands
on the quality of wine ?
We defined:
Quality = f (brand, terroir,.....others)
Question:
how important are the brand and the terroir ?
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Empirical analysis 2002:
Aim: quantification of the impact of brand and terroir
Methode: sensorical judgement (0-10 points) by 10 experts
Material: of 123 wines (99er and 2000er Riesling dry, QbA and Spätlese)
from 5 wine regions, 55 estates,37 sites collected by 5 students
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Results from a multifactoriell analysis of variance
Source: own estimation
% F-W erte
Rest 8,6% 8,49***factor: estate (brand) 79,2% 3,94*factor: sites (terroir) 12,2% 7,35***Modell 91,4%Total 100,0%
r2 des Modells: 0,914; korrigiertes r2 des Modells: 0,790
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Results from a regression modell
independent variables sites estates sites and estates1 Lage Pfalz 18 estates:
- 4 Pfalz- 3 Nahe- 7 Rheinhessen- 4 Rheingau
16 estates:- 2 Pfalz- 3 Nahe- 7 Rheinhessen- 4 Rheingau3 sites (alle Pfalz)
Resultsestimated variance by regression 11,728 217,125 232,078rest-variance 351,868 146,471 131,517total variance 363,596 363,596 363,596r2 of the modells 0,032* 0,597*** 0,638***korrig. r2 of the modells 0,025* 0,532*** 0,576***
Dependent variable: winequality
Source: own estimation
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Impact on quality =
60-80% by brand (estate)
3-12% by terroir (site)
8-37% others
Results:
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Empirical analysis 2003:
Aim: identification of origin (terroir) for premium Riesling (1. Gewächs, große Lage, .....)
Methode: sensorical judgement (0-5 points) by 19 experts
Material: 22 premium wines from the variety Riesling, from 11 wine regions, 16 estates,
collected by 5 students
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average of identification: 16 %
one region was identified by: 30 %
418 judgements = 100 %
(22 wines X 19 experts)
Results:
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Customers view: terms of origin (terroir):
confusing
high involvement necessary
world of experts
brand: easy to understand
easy to find on the shelf
source of confidence
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The market classifies by brands: e.g. Gaja,
Chateau Petrus, Weil, Torres, Penfolds, Mondavy, Opus One, Gunderloch, Schloß Vollrads, Heger,............................
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Summary:
Comparing the impact on winequality and on success in the market:
brands are much more important than terroir.
The image of famous terroirs are build by brands !
Future in the international winemarket:
Brands (have and) will become very important !!
Brand management is the key of success in a growing international wine business !