the present and prospective role of renewables in meeting energy demand alan lovell, chairman and...
TRANSCRIPT
The present and prospective role of renewables in meeting energy demand
Alan Lovell, Chairman and Chief Executive of Tamar Energy
Tamar Energy
Do help to ‘plug the gap’ Fulfil Britain’s commitments to the EU Are in most cases genuinely sustainable Assist security of supply Provide employment and some export opportunities Can have other benefits such as dealing with waste
…….. but are expensive, especially those which are intermittent and unpredictable
Renewables tick a lot of boxes…..
Overall energy demand will exceed supply
Existing (post decommission) Planned or in construction The Gap Demand0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
UK generating capacity vs demand in 2020 (GW)
41%
7%
3%
Sources: DECC ‘Renewables Roadmap’ July 2011, DECC energy trends June 2011, DECC ‘UK Low Carbon Transition Plan’ 2009,
2%
3
There is a 54 GW electricity generation gap projected by 2020
Highlights of the “20 / 20 / 20” targets embedded in the EU Energy Package
Mandatory target of 20% emissions reduction below 1990 levels by 2020
Mandatory target of 20% of primary energy consumption to come from renewables by 2020
- Burden sharing among Member States – UK given a 15% target- Includes transport and heating as well as electricity
Efficiency target for primary energy consumption of 20% by 2020
The EU Energy Package sets ambitious targets
The UK is way behind most of its European neighbours
2005 actual % of renewable power in generation mix 2020 target
EU Energy Package 2020 renewable energy target
Renewable energy consumption has increased markedly over the last six years
Source: Renewable Energy roadmap, Energy trends
Where does our Renewable Electricity come from now?
20102011
Source: Energy trends, March 2012
… and research indicates that the 15% target can be achieved
Source: Energy trends, March 2012
Technology breakdown of delivery of 15% target in 2020
Source: Analysis of Renewables Growth to 2020, AEA Technology
Even by 2020 the projected levelised cost for most technologies will be more than CCGT
To achieve the growth to date has required generous subsidies.e.g. Solar PV feed-in-tariff at £430/MWh
Offshore wind: - 2 ROCs at £50 = £100/MWh- Power price of £60/MWh
and that conceals the cost of the back-up
Renewable energy is not cheap
ACL credentials for talking on this subject
2006 – 2009Chief Executive, Infinis Landfill gas & early onshore wind
developments2009 – 2011Non-exec Director, Low Carbon Solar Large scale solar
Current portfolioChairman & Chief Executive, Tamar Anaerobic digestionChairman, TidalStream Large platform for tidal turbinesNon-exec Director, Progressive Energy Carbon capture & storage project
It is a waste solution, delivers renewable energy and produces a high quality fertilizer
It delivers baseload power
The output can be electricity, gas to the gas grid or transport fuel
The costs are reasonable, estimated at just over £100/MWh
Anaerobic digestion will never be huge but it gets a lot right
Tamar’s plan: To build a network of 44 AD plants to generate 100MW
More than £65m equity capital raised to build AD plants in the UK
Exceptional consortium of institutional and strategic investors
RIT and Lord Rothschild, Fajr Capital, Duchy of Cornwall and Sainsbury’s
Management team with track record across all areas
Pipeline of developed projects, many with planning permission
Larger (≥2MW) food waste plants
We will use a strong balance sheet to grow the market rapidly, and will reinforce long-term feedstock security through regional focus
Investor return will come from building on the balance sheet a portfolio of plants with stable cashflows
Turbine development is just reaching maturity and attention is turning (belatedly) to deployment
Key is to deliver lots of power from just one foundation The big prize is the Pentland Firth TidalStream is developing a 60 metre high platform which has many advantages:
- Can access the deep fast-flowing water- Up to 10MW on one foundation- Economical to take to site and for maintenance
Tidal: The UK has half of Europe’s potential tidal energy
TidalStream Cost Model (hard colour bars audited by B&V)
Capture Capture and Storage (CCS)
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) captures up to 90% of the CO2 emissions produced from fossil fuels used in electricity generation and industrial processes, preventing the CO2 from entering the atmosphere.
Furthermore, the use of CCS with renewable biomass is one of the few carbon abatement technologies that is 'carbon-negative' - actually taking CO2 out of the atmosphere.
The CCS chain consists of three parts:
Capture: Separation of CO2 from gases produced in electricity generation and industrial processes by one of three methods: pre-combustion capture, post-combustion capture & oxyfuel combustion.
Transport: CO2 is then transported by pipeline or potentially by ship
Storage: CO2 is then stored in carefully selected geological rock formation that are typically located several kilometres below the earth's surface, and usually offshore.
CCS Deployment
Courtesy of the Carbon Capture and Storage Association. Presentation given at the launch of 'A Strategy for CCS in the UK and Beyond‘ 8 September 2011
Globally, carbon capture and storage is vital
Potentially this is the one low carbon sector that can contribute positively to the Treasury
Three elements to a project:• Electricity from fossil fuels without
dangerous emissions
• Help to other industrial emitters: steel works, ammonia plant, aluminium plant, etc
• Storage under North Sea or Enhanced
Oil Recovery
Benefits:• Use UK coal/gas safely• Achieve climate targets• Global opportunities
• Keep industrial companies in business• Jobs in key parts of country • Potential oil revenues to Treasury• Use of own oil helps security of
supply
Incentives have driven big growth in renewable generation - possible we can hit EU 2020 targets
Focus is now switching (correctly) to more economic technologies- ending of high solar FiT- Government statements about offshore wind
Encouragement for cheaper, baseload technologies and those that deal with waste
CCS is potentially the big win
Concluding remarks
