Election 2012: A Brief Overview and Analysis

September 14, 2012

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Political Context………………………………………………………….………..3

2. Views of Obama..…………………………………………………………….…...7

3. Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race ……………..….…….…10

4. Battleground States……….……………………………………………...……18

5. Battle for Congress……………………….……………………….…………...21

Slide

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Political Context

CHALLENGING ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE

• Tougher political, economic, and foreign policy environment

• Post-2010, narrower field of battleground states • New Republican governors in Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New

Mexico, Wisconsin, and Michigan

• Continuing high unemployment • No President has been re-elected since WWII when

unemployment was above 7.5%

Clinton Sept 1996

Bush Sept 2004

Obama Sept 2012

Satisfied 45 41 30

Unsatisfied 50 56 68

State of the Nation

4

Source: Gallup Poll, September 6-9, 2012

Highest in Three Years.

A year ago, satisfaction

stood at 11%

IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID

5

Source: Fox News Poll, September 9-11, 2012

Which one of the following issues will be most important in deciding your vote for president?

2%

14%

4%

10%

22%

47%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Other (vol.)

All (vol.)

National security issues such as terrorismand ensuring a strong military

Social issues such as abortion and gaymarriage

Fiscal issues such as taxes, the deficit andgovernment spending

Economic issues such as jobs and growth

AMONG LIKELY VOTERS

MORE DEMOCRATS THAN REPUBLICANS FIND CAMPAIGN INTERESTING

6

Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 7-9, 2012

How would you describe the presidential election campaign so far – is it [READ ITEM]?

7

Obama

AMERICANS APPROVE OF OBAMA’S OVERALL JOB PERFORMANCE; SEES BOUNCE FOLLOWING THE CONVENTION

8

Source: Gallup Poll, September 3 – 9 , 2012

50% 44%

6%

Overall Job Approval Approve Disapprove No opinion

Gallup (Adults) Aug 27 – Sept 2

Sept 3 - 9

Approve 44% 50%

Disapprove 47% 44%

Fox News (LVs) Aug 19-21

Sept 9 - 11

Approve 46% 50%

Disapprove 50% 47%

CNN (RVs) Aug 31 – Sept 3

Sept 7 - 9

Approve 48% 51%

Disapprove 45% 44%

9

Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data

ROMNEY’S POPULARITY STAYS LOW, OBAMA IS VIEWED MORE FAVORABLY

UNFAVORABLE 45.1% FAVORABLE 51.1%

UNFAVORABLE 48.3% FAVORABLE 45.6%

As of September 13, 2012

10

Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race

11

AFTER CONVENTIONS, OBAMA TAKES THE LEAD

Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data

Sept 14, 2008 %

Obama 45.3

McCain 47.4

McCain +2.1

Sept 14, 2004 %

Bush 49.0

Kerry 43.3

Bush +5.7

A Look Back Four Years Ago Today*

Eight Years Ago Today

Source: Real Clear Politics

As of September 14, 2012

OBAMA 48.6%

ROMNEY 44.9%

+3.7

* Note that the GOP convention followed the Democratic convention in 2004

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OBAMA GETS A BOUNCE OUT OF CONVENTIONS

CNN Poll (among Likely Voters) Obama Romney Spread

Pre-convention (Aug 22-23) 49% 47% Obama +2

Post-convention (Sept 7-9) 52% 46% Obama +6 Change +3 -1

ABC/WP Poll (among Registered Voters) Obama Romney Spread

Pre-convention (Aug 22-25) 46% 47% Romney +1

Post-convention (Sept 7-9) 50% 44% Obama +6 Change +4 -3

Fox News Poll (among Likely Voters) Obama Romney Spread

Pre-convention (Aug 19-21) 44% 45% Romney +1

Post-convention (Sept 9-11) 48% 43% Obama +5 Change +4 -2

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CANDIDATE BOUNCES BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE

Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data

Democratic candidate

Post-Dem. Convention

bounce

Republican candidate

Post-Rep. convention

bounce

2012 Obama 3 Romney -1

2008 Obama 4 McCain 6

2004 Kerry -1 G.W. Bush 2

2000 Gore 8 G.W. Bush 8

1996 Clinton 5 Dole 3

1992 Clinton 16 G.H.W. Bush 5

1988 Dukakis 7 G.H.W. Bush 6

1984 Mondale 9 Reagan 4

1980 Carter 10 Reagan 8

1976 Carter 9 Ford 5

1972 McGovern 0 Nixon 7

THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES APPEAR TO HURT ROMNEY MORE THAN OBAMA

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Source: CNN/ORC Poll, September 7-9, 2012

Now suppose that the presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Barack Obama as the Democratic Party's candidate, Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian party candidate, and Jill Stein as the Green party candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for?

51% 43%

3% 1% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Obama Romney Johnson Stein

AMONG LIKELY VOTERS

Note: “Other (vol),” “None (vol),” and “No Opinion” results are not shown.

15

WHEN IT COMES TO MOTIVATION, OBAMA HAS AN EDGE

Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 7-9, 2012

(IF SUPPORT OBAMA OR ROMNEY) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Obama/Romney), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

AMONG REGISTERED

VOTERS

ENTHUSIASTIC NOT ENTHUSIASTIC

NET Very Somewhat NET Not so Not at all

Obama supporters 93% 56% 38% 7% 3% 3%

Romney supporters 87% 46% 40% 13% 7% 6%

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LIKELY VOTERS GIVE OBAMA THE EDGE ON MOST ISSUES

Source: CNN/ORC Poll, September 7-9, 2012

Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me if you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would better handle that issue if they were elected President.

47% 50% 51%

54% 54% 54% 50% 49%

46% 45% 43% 42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

The federalbudget deficit

The economy Taxes Healthcare Medicare Foreign policy

Obama Romney

Note: “Neither,” and “No opinion” results are not shown.

R +3

O +1

O +5

O +9

O +11

O +12

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AMERICANS GIVE OBAMA THE EDGE ON PERSONAL DIMENSIONS, SUCH AS BEING IN TOUCH WITH THE PROBLEMS THAT FACE THE MIDDLE CLASS

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies more to Barack Obama or more to Mitt Romney.

39%

45%

44%

41%

41%

44%

37%

45%

48%

50%

51%

51%

51%

57%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Has a clear plan for solving the country'sproblems

Can manage the government effectively

Is a strong and decisive leader

Has an optimistic vision for the country'sfuture

Is more honest and trustworthy

Shares your values

Is in touch with the problems facing themiddle class

Obama Romney

O, +20

O, +7

O, +10

O, +10

O, +6

O, +3

O, +6

Source: CNN/ORC Poll, September 7-9, 2012

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Battleground States

19

OR

AK

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

NH

3 12

7

55 6

4 3

6

11 5

9

3

3

5

4

3

4

38

29

6

7

10

6

10

6

8 6 9 16

29

9 15 13

11

20 11

10 16

18 20

8 5

THE ELECTORAL MAP

Electoral Count (as shown):

Romney: 191 Obama: 237 Toss-Up: 110

VT 3

NH 4

RI 4

NJ 14

CT 7

DE 3

MD 10

DC 3

MA 11

Source: Real Clear Politics (as of September 13, 2012)

BATTLEGROUND STATE DASHBOARD

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Source: Real Clear Politics, as of September 14, 2012

States Obama Romney Obama Romney

Colorado 49.0% 45.3% 9 0

Florida 47.8% 46.5% 29 0

Iowa 45.0% 44.8% 6 0

Nevada 49.0% 45.7% 6 0

New Hampshire 47.3% 43.3% 4 0

North Carolina 45.5% 49.0% 0 15

Ohio 48.5% 44.3% 18 0

Virginia 47.0% 46.6% 0 13

Wisconsin 48.2% 46.8% 10 0

Swing State Voters 111 15

Leaning/Likely State Voters 221 191

Total Overall Votes 319 206

RCP POLL AVERAGE ELECTORAL VOTES

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Battle for Congress

2012 SENATE RACES TO WATCH

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Likely Dem (3) Lean Dem (5) Toss-Up (7) Lean Rep (2) Likely Rep (1) ME* (Open) –

Republican HI (Open) – Democrat

MO (McCaskill) – Democrat

AZ (Open) – Republican

NE (Open) – Democrat

PA (Casey) – Democrat

FL (Nelson) – Democrat

MT (Tester) – Democrat

IN (Open) – Republican

MI (Stabenow) – Democrat

OH (Brown) – Democrat

VA (Open) – Democrat

CT (Open) – Democrat

WI (Open) – Democrat

NM (Open) – Democrat

ND (Open) - Democrat

MA (Brown) – Republican

NV (Heller) – Republican

Source: Roll Call, as of September 13, 2012 *Former Gov. Angus King is likely to caucus with the Democrats if he wins the open Maine seat

Democrats need to win 3 Toss-Up seats to retain control of the Senate if they pick up a seat in ME, while losing a seat in NE.

Republicans need to win 6 Toss-Up seats to gain control of the Senate if they pick up a seat in NE, while losing a seat in ME.

LATEST SENATE POLL AVERAGES

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Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of September 13, 2012)

OR

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

NH

(8/20 – 9/11)

Rehberg : 45% Tester: 44%

MT

Heller: 47% Berkley: 42%

(7/24-8/26)

(8/15-8/21)

Thompson: 51% Baldwin: 43%

(8/22-9/11)

McCaskill: 48% Akin: 43%

Allen: 46% Kaine: 45%

(8/16-9/11)

(6/13-6/25)

King: 53% Summers: 25%

Dill: 8%

Brown: 44%

Warren: 43%

(5/7-8/19)

WI

NV

MO VA

ME

MA

Nelson: 46% Mack: 39%

(8/15-9/9)

FL

NM

Heinrich: 49% Wilson: 41%

(8/5-9/9)

ND

(5/3-7/11)

Berg: 49% Heitkamp: 44%

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GPG Research

GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.

GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.

For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:

Joel Johnson (jjohnson@gpgdc.com) or David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com)