The Role of the Universities In the Millennium Villages Project

Jeffrey D. Sachs

June 5, 2006

Severe malaria

Severe malaria

MAP OF COUNTRIES REQUIRING URGENT EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE

                                                                                                                                                                      

COUNTRIES REQUIRING URGENT EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE (Total: 27 countries)

FAO/GIEWS December 2005

CORRUPTION LEVELS COMPARABLE TO ASIA

Increasing Corruption Decreasing Corruption

Economic Growth1990-2003

Africa

Asia

Gha

naC

hina

Sen

egal

Rw

anda

Indi

aM

ali

Tanz

ania

Mal

awi

Vie

tnam

Uga

nda

Cam

bodi

a

Eth

iopi

a

Indo

nesi

a

Ken

ya Pak

ista

n

Nig

eria

Ban

glad

esh

8.0

4.0

2.0

0

5

10

15

20

U5 Mortality(per 100)

Total FertilityRate

Pop Growth(2003-2015)

Demographic Comparison of South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

AfricaSouth Asia

THREE GREAT CHALLENGES

•Green Revolution

•Health Revolution

•Connectivity Revolution

GREEN REVOLUTION:

Seed, Soils, Water, Climate, Pathogens

FAO Index of Net Food Output per Capita, 1961-2000

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

World E SE Asia South Asia Sub-Sahara

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

55.5

66.5

77.5

8

Observed On-farm

OfficialOn-farm

On-station Commercialfarmers

Gra

in y

ield

(t h

a-1)

ZambiaTanzaniaKenyaUgandaEthiopiaBurkina FasoNigerBotswanaZimbabwe

The Yield GapReported Grain yield levels Some observations from sub-Saharan Africa

Per Hectare Fertilizer Use by Markets 2002/03 (kg/ha)

Nutrient Mining in Agricultural Lands of Africa

1995–97 2002–04

kg/ha

HEALTH REVOLUTION:

Infectious disease control, human resources, public awareness,

logistics

Malaria Ecology Index

Sub-Saharan Africa has the Highest Prevalence

of Nine Neglected Tropical Diseases

Condition Cases in Africa Proportion of Global Burden in Africa

Hookworm 198 million 27%-34%Ascariasis 173 million 14%-22%Schistosomiasis 166 million 89%Trichuriasis 162 million 20%-26%Trachoma 33 million 40%Lymphatic Filariasis 46 million 38%Onchocerciasis 18 million 99%Trypanosomiasis 0.5 million 100%Dracunculiasis <0.1 million 100%

Geographic Overlap of Hookworm and Malaria

CONNECTIVITY REVOLUTION:

Roads, rail, ports, telecommunications, internet

A Comparison of Railway Networks in Africa and India

THE ECONOMIC STRATEGY

•Rural Sector: Millennium Villages

•Urban Sector: Millennium Cities

•Demographic Transition

Rural Sector

Community-led development

through

Millennium Villages

Urban Development

Promote global competitivenessin urban areas

Millennium Cities Project

Demographic Transition:

Total Fertility Rate below 3.0 by 2015

Maternal empowerment, girls’ education,Child survival, contraceptive availability,

Family planning

MILLENNIUM VILLAGES

A NEW STRATEGY TO END EXTREME POVERTY IN AFRICA

THROUGH COMMUNITY-BASED DEVELOPMENT

Income per capita

BasicNeedsLevel

Africa Asia

Dissaving

Saving

Poverty Trap Self-Sustaining Growth

COMPARATIVE GROWTH DYNAMICS OF AFRICA AND ASIA

The Strategy for Ending Extreme Poverty

Millennium Villages:•Raise Farm Incomes and Household Saving•Introduce Microfinance •Introduce Contract Farming•Reduce Population Growth Rates•Bolster Urban Demand and Jobs

Based on Millennium Village Successes:•Scale Up

1960 2005 1960

2005

Yield (tons per hectare)

1.0

2.0

Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia

Africa Has (So Far) Missed the Green Revolution

CROPYIELDS

CURRENT CRISIS

MILLENNIUM VILLAGES

DECLININGSOIL NUTRIENTS,UNSTABLECLIMATE,MONOCULTURE REBUILDING

SOIL NUTRIENTS,RAINWATERHARVESTING,CROPDIVERSIFICATION

Raising Farm Incomes A “Green Revolution”

EconomicSurplus

Area planted to Food

Area planted to Food

cash

cro

psArea plantedTo cash crops

Food production

Cash crop production

Area Planted to Food Declines, While Food Production Rises

Food productionCash crop

production

Contract Farming (some examples)

Nestle (dairy)Carrefour Land o’ LakesRosebud (cut flowers)StarbucksArachide de Bouche (peanuts)ITC South African BreweriesGuiness Nigeria PLC (sorghum)

Agribusiness Development Steps:

•Identify potential commodities and markets •Agronomic expertise•Community Organization•Discussions with potential international buyers and investors•Millennium Cities initiative to create business-friendly environment•Millennium Project policy discussions with national government•Sanitary and phyto-sanitary conditions•Infrastructure: storage, electricity, road transport•Assistance with contract negotiations•Assistance with venture capital financing and management

Cut flowersVegetables: asparagus, broccoli, peas, fine beans, Brussels sprouts, artichokeFruits: pineapple, mango, watermelon, passion fruit, papayaSpices: vanilla, cardamom, peppersCane sugarEthanol from cane sugarCottonDairyHoneyStarchCocoaCoffeePeanutsCashewsWood pulp Carbon sequestration offsets

Examples of Opportunities for Contract Farming

Rosebud Corporation:Located on the shores of Lake Victoria, two rose-growing farms have a total land area of over 600 acres. The farms are both within 30 minutes of Entebbe International Airport.

www.rosebudlimited.com

Blue Skies, Ghana in Partnership with Royal Ahold, Netherlands

The Health Strategy:

Disease Prevention and Health Promotion through:

Insecticide-treated bed netsImproved water points and sanitationAIDS awarenessMicronutrient supplementationDe-wormingSchool feedingAntenatal CareReproductive health services

Disease Treatment through clinical services for:

MalariaTropical parasitesDiarrheal diseaseRespiratory infectionAIDS treatments including AntiretroviralsDOTS for TBSafe delivery

BEFORE AND AFTER THE MILLENNIUM VILLAGE PROJECT

REDUCED MORTALITY, FERTILITY, AND POPULATION GROWTH

MORTALITY FERTILITY POPULATION GROWTH

Under-5 Mortality Rate (female)

020406080

100120140160180

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Year

Dea

ths

per 1

000

live

birt

hs

Baseline (UN mediumforecast)

Accelerated mortalitytransition

Total Fertility Rate

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Year

TFR

Baseline (UN mediumforecast)

Accelerated FertilityTransition

African Population (millions)

0

500

1000

1500

200020

05

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Year

Popu

latio

n

Baseline Projection(UN medium forecast)

Accelerated MortalityTransition alone

Accelerated Mortalityand Fertility Transition

Hea

lth

Infra

Wat

er

Agr

ic

Edu

c

Env

ir

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

Recommended

Current

Sector ODA Per African Per Annum: Recommended versus CurrentSource: OECD DAC, 2003

Note: ODA net of Technical Cooperation

Scaling Up the Millennium Villages:

Proving Success in 2006

From 100 Villages in 2006 to 1,000 Villages in 2007, throughNGO Partnerships

Millennium Villages at the G8 in 2007

Mobilizing Official and Private Donor Support during 2007-2015

Donor Costs Needed for Scaling up the Millennium Villages

$60 per capita x 500,000,000 rural poor = additional $30 billion per year

U.S. part: approximately (1/2) x $30 billion = $15 billion per year

Needed overall U.S. aid to Africa = approximately $25 billion per year

•If we fail to act:•8 million Africans will die each year of preventable or treatable causes

•Africa’s poverty will worsen

•War, violence, and threats of terror will escalate

•The population in Africa will soar

•Global disease transmission will be much more likely

•U.S. energy security will be imperiled

•Environmental degradation will accompany rapid population growth

Hea

lth

Infra

Wat

er

Agr

ic

Edu

c

Env

ir

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

Recommended

Current

Sector ODA Per African Per Annum: Recommended versus CurrentSource: OECD DAC, 2003

Note: ODA net of Technical Cooperation

U.S. Budget Spending

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Budget Category

$ B

illio

ns Aid to Africa

Pentagon Spending

Defense$550 billion

Aid to Africa$4 billion

Aid to Africa$25 billion

Defense

Investing in our National Security

Current For a safer America