the value of gartner. © 2006 gartner, inc. all rights reserved. 2 allen liao 廖銘仁學歷 : b....

The Value of Gartner

2© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Allen Liao 廖銘仁學歷 : B. S. 清華大學核子工程系 M.S. Manufacturing Engineering, Syracuse University, New York, USA 經歷 : 15 years in IT and High-Tech Manufacturing Industry - 業務協理 , Gartner Taiwan - 專案經理 , HP 顧問事業群 , HP Taiwan & Singapore - 資深顧問 , SAP Taiwan - Project Logistic & Global Supply Chain Leader, Ericsson Taiwan - 資材部經理 , Ultima Electronics


Agenda

- Gartner Company Profile

- Gartner Services

- Sample of Gartner Research & Deliverables


Gartner Company Profile

© 2006 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner, TCO and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.


E-Business Hype Cycle ~Gartner made in 1998

We are here

Trigger Peak of InflatedExpectations

Trough of Disillusionment

Slope ofEnlightenment

Plateau ofProductivity

Year

E-Business Forever

E-Tailing

Dot-com starts

Internet / WWW

Dot-com share fallout

Investor disillusionment

Business disillusionment “True” E-Business emerges

Optimized E-Business

E-Business subsumed

into corporate DNA

1997 1998 1999 2000 20011990-1996 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 20082003

Visibility

1998


Corporate Overview

Gartner. The leader in technology research. Trusted – 信賴的 Objective – 客觀的 Results-oriented – 結果導向的


Gartner Basic

Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT)

Founded in 1979

Headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, U.S.A.

Delivery : technology-related insight necessary for our clients to make the right decisions, every day

Client base:- CIOs and other senior IT executives in corporations,

education institutions and government agencies

- Technology companies

- Investment community.


People Data

Number of employees 3,900

Number of analysts 650

Number of consultants 550

Number of quota-bearing salespeople 655

Direct contact with clients: Yes

ISO 9000,ISO 9001,ISO 12000


Client Data

Number of countries where we have clients : 75

Client organizations worldwide: 45,000 clients representing 10,000 distinct organizations worldwide

Client base:- Technology sector is responsible for approximately 30% of

Gartner revenue

- Other sectors comprise 70% of Gartner revenue

Fortune 1000 penetration 66%, Global 500 penetration 80%


University Clients

- U of California (USA) - U of Chicago (USA) - U of Cambridge (UK) - U of Hong Kong (HK) - Singapore Management University (Singapore) - SUNY - Buffalo, Albany (USA) - MIT (USA) - U of Illinois (USA) - U of London (UK) - U of Michigan - Ann Arbor (USA) - U of Minnesota (USA) - U of Washington (USA) - U of Wisconsin (USA) - U of Israel (Israel) - U of Berlin (Germany) ……etc


Gartner Services



Gartner Delivers Insight Through

Research

Executive Programs

Consulting

Events


Gartner is in a unique position to deliver insight you can’t find anywhere else.

“Gartner acts as an extension to my staff and as an intelligent filter to the oceans of information that I need to track and monitor. With Gartner, I get opinions that are objective, unbiased and candid.”JOSEPH D. “JODY” GILESCIO, Under Armour

66% of Fortune 1000

80% ofGlobal 500

70+ Conferences

3,100CIOs

45,000Clients

17,000Benchmarks

650Analysts

75 Countries

215,000Client

Inquiries

10,000Media

Inquiries

2,000Consulting

Engagements

Source: This data is accurate as of March 31, 2006.


Hype Cycles

Hype cycles help determine when a technology will pay off.


Magic Quadrants

Magic Quadrants help you position the leading players.


Example: Magic Quadrant for North America ERP Service Providers, 2006


Sample of Gartner Research & Deliverables



Worldwide DRAM Forecast, 1Q07:Who is Adding Capacity?

0

50

100

150

200

250

1Q

06

2Q

06

3Q

06

4Q

06

1Q

07

2Q

07

3Q

07

4Q

07

1Q

08

2Q

08

3Q

08

4Q

08

Others Samsung Micron

Qimonda Hynix Nanya

Elpida Powerchip ProMOS

Billions of Megabytes

8% 158%

21% 163%

26% 193%

26% 193%

19% 197%

% New Cap. % Increase4Q08 3Q06/4Q08

Total 100% 182%


Regional Semiconductor Packaging Materials Markets

2006 Estimate= $14.7 Billion

2006E 2007F %$B $B Change

China 1.45 1.72 19%

Europe 0.51 0.56 10%

Japan 3.14 3.51 12%

Korea 2.21 2.54 15%

North America 0.38 0.34 -11%

Taiwan 3.59 3.97 11%

Southeast Asia 3.45 4.00 16%

Total Regions 14.73 16.64 13%

Region

Totals may not add due to rounding

Southeast Asia23%

Taiwan25%

North America

2%

Korea15%

Japan21%

Europe4%

China10%

Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription March 2007


CIOs expect modest increases in their IT budgets.

2007

3.0%

2006

2.7%

2005

2.5%

2004

1.3%

2002

1.4%

2003

0.0%0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Ant

icip

ated

ave

rag

e IT

bud

get

incr

ease

Trend Line

Half of CIOs expect their budgets to increase an average of 4.9% while 30 percent expect no change and 20 percent expect an average decline of 1.5%


CIOs must to do more than control cost and service quality to meet business expectations.

2007 2006 2005

Delivering projects that enable business growth 1 1 1

Linking business and IT strategies and plans 2 2 2

Improving the quality of IS service delivery 3 7 7

Attracting, developing, and retaining IS personnel 4 5 **

Demonstrating the business value of IT 5 4 3

Providing new types of information (e.g.: analytics) 6 * *

Developing or managing a flexible technology infrastructure 7 8 **

Improving IT governance 8 9 10

Building business skills in the IS organization 9 3 9

Leading change initiatives (involving more than IT) 10 * *

Top 10 CIO Strategies:

* New question for 2007 ** New question for 2006

To what extent is each of the following a priority for you in 2007?


Ben Lee 李輔邦

學歷 :

B.A., 交通大學管理科學系 M.B.A., 交通大學管理科學研究所經歷 :

17 years in Semiconductor Industry

- 首席分析師 , Gartner Taiwan

- 專案經理 , 資策會 MIC

業務 / 行銷經理 , Clevo Computer Inc. Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Industry –Strength in Diversity

Ben LeePrincipal Analyst, Semiconductor [email protected]


Taiwan Semiconductor Market Forecast

Key Issues- Global Semiconductor Market Overview

- What is the semiconductor market forecast in Taiwan through 2011? by applications, and by device…..

- Who are leaders of semiconductor vendors in Taiwan?

- Taiwan’s semiconductor industry update


Billions of Dollars and Revenue Growth

$0

$60

$120

$180

$240

$300

$360

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

3Q06 4Q06

1Q07 2Q07

$22224.6%

$156 1.4%

$17814.5%

$269 2.5%

$237 7.3%

$263 10.2%

$3147.2%

$2938.7%

$3160.9%

Revenue CAGR

06/11 = 5.1%

Source: Gartner Dataquest Estimates (May 2007)

$22224.6%

$235 5.7%

$260 10.7%

$276 6.4%

$2998.2%

$306 2.2%

$326 6.7% 1Q07

$3376.6%

Semiconductor Forecast: 2Q07 UpdateMarket Weakening

$352 7.7%


WW Semiconductor Market and Electronics Equipment Growth Rates

0

5

10

15

20

25

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Semiconductor IndustryElectronics Industry



Key Issues

- Global Semiconductor Market Overview

- What is the semiconductor market forecast in Taiwan through 2011? by applications, and by device ...




0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Military

Industrial

Automotives

Consumers

Comms

DP

Taiwan Semiconductor Market Will Drop to US$ 9.2 Billion in 2011, from US$ 12.8 in 2006


Market CAGR

06/11 = -6.4%

Millions of US Dollars

WW% 5.7% 4.9% 4.2% 3.8% 3.4% 3.1% 2.8%

Market size in Taiwan has dropped down gradually…


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Military

Industrial

Automotives

Consumers

Comms

DP

Taiwan ODMs Will Grap More Semiconductor PTAM to US$ 82 Billion in 2011, from US$ 59 in 2006


Market CAGR

06/11 = 6.6%

Millions of US Dollars

WW% 21% 22.6% 23.4% 23.7% 24% 24.3% 24.7%

Market size is increasing dramatically over the period…


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Non-opticalSensors General PurposeLogic Discrete

Optoelectronics

Analog

ASIC

Microcomponent

Memory

ASSP

Taiwan Semiconductor Market Forecast by Device


Percentage


AP High TAM Applications Semiconductor 2006 2011 2006-2011 2006 2011

Total Available Market (M$) (M$) CAGR Share Share

Digital Cellular, 2.5G 16,169 14,045 -2.8% 11.7% 6.9%

Mobile PC 13,139 25,805 14.5% 9.5% 12.7%

Digital Cellular, 3G 9,089 33,831 30.1% 6.6% 16.6%

Desktop PC (CPU and memory) 8,872 7,425 -3.5% 6.4% 3.7%

Desktop PC (motherboard) 5,404 7,230 6.0% 3.9% 3.6%

RS3-Flash Cards 4,593 6,268 6.4% 3.3% 3.1%

Portable Media Players – Flash 4,349 5,765 5.8% 3.2% 2.8%

Flat Panel Monitor 4,007 5,983 8.3% 2.9% 2.9%

Graphic Cards 3,977 4,222 1.2% 2.9% 2.1%

Rigid Disk Drive 3,879 5,967 9.0% 2.8% 2.9%

Video Game Consoles 3,597 3,978 2.0% 2.6% 2.0%

Optical Disk Drive 3,171 4,754 8.4% 2.3% 2.3%

Digital Still Camera 2,721 3,556 5.5% 2.0% 1.7%

Others 54,850 74,412 6.3% 39.8% 36.6%

SUM 137,815 203,240

8.1%


AP Emerging Applications Semiconductor 2006 2011 2006-2011 2006 2011

Total Available Market (M$) (M$) CAGR Share Share

Digital Cellular, 3G 9,089 33,831 30.1% 6.6% 16.6%

GPS, Portable Navigation Device 951 3,146 27.0% 0.7% 1.5%

Airbags 336 916 22.2% 0.2% 0.5%

TV, LCD 2,147 4,683 16.9% 1.6% 2.3%

Server, Entry-Level 845 1,760 15.8% 0.6% 0.9%

Smart Cards 632 1,270 15.0% 0.5% 0.6%

PC, Mobile 13,139 25,805 14.5% 9.5% 12.7%

LAN Switches 894 1,733 14.1% 0.6% 0.9%

Wireless LAN Infrastructure 719 1,379 13.9% 0.5% 0.7%

Appliances 697 1,202 11.5% 0.5% 0.6%

Video Game Handhelds 1,379 2,296 10.7% 1.0% 1.1%

Security/Energy Management 705 1,142

10.1% 0.5%

0.6%

Others 106,280 124,076 3.1% 77.1% 61.0%

Sum 137,815 203,240 8.1%




- What is the semiconductor market forecast in Taiwan through 2011? by applications, and by device …..




2006 Taiwan Semiconductor Market Share Leaders

2005 2006 2005(M$) 2006(M$) Growth 2006

Rank Rank Revenue Revenue (%) Share (%)

1 1 Intel 5,168 4,572 -12% 15%

2 2 Samsung Electronics 1,931 2,059 7% 7%

10 3 Advanced Micro Devices 438 1,822 316% 6%

3 4 Texas Instruments 1,220 1,548 27% 5%

5 5 Hynix Semiconductor 736 1,029 40% 3%

6 6 NVIDIA 733 951 30% 3%

7 7 Powerchip Semiconductor 600 923 54% 3%

4 8 MediaTek 925 888 -4% 3%

8 9 Infinion (+Qimonda) 564 655 18% 2%

9 10 Toshiba 524 618 18% 2%

Others 13,593 14,893 10% 50%

Total Market 26,432 29,968 13% 100%




- What is the semiconductor market forecast in Taiwan through 2011? by applications, and by device …..




2006 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturers Leaders

Company Name 2005 2006 AGR

Nanya Technology 1440 2111 47%

MediaTek Inc. 1438 1609 12%

PowerChip Semiconductor 1027 1513 47%

ProMOS Technologies 871 1462 68%

Novatek 809 964 19%

Himax 540 743 38%

Winbond Electronics 655 629 -4%

Macronix International 511 615 20%

VIA Technologies 590 559 -5%

Realtek Semiconductor 352 380 8%

others 4179 4779 14%

Total Taiwan 12,412 15,364 24%

global share 8.0% 8.6%


2006 Taiwan Semiconductor Foundry Leaders

company name 2005 2006 AGR(%)

TSMC 8,228 9,716 18%

UMC 2,882 3,191 11%

PowerChip Semiconductor 114 122 7%

Winbond Electronics 14 16 14%

Vanguard 353 398 13%

Epsil 75 92 23%

Mosel-Vitelic 80 99 24%

total foundry 11,746 13,634 16%


2006 Taiwan Semiconductor Capital Spending

2005 2006 20072006GR 2007GR

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Group 2,527.0 2,473.7 2,801.0 -2.1% 13.2%

Powerchip 1,308.7 2,600.0 2,000.0 98.7% -23.1%

Nanya technology 80.0 122.0 1,900.0 52.5% 1457.4%

ProMOS 860.0 862.0 1,875.0 0.2% 117.5%

Inotera (was Hwaya Semiconductor) 718.0 1,413.0 1,229.0 96.8% -13.0%

United Microelectronics Group 722.0 1,018.0 1,006.0 41.0% -1.2%

Vanguard International Semiconductor 25.0 36.4 225.0 45.6% 518.1%

Others 929.5 861.1 495.3 -7.4% -42.5%

Taiwan Companies 7,170.2 9,386.2 11,531.3 30.9% 22.9%

Global Share 15.2% 16.7% 20.2%



Complementary….


Cellular Phone Production Forecast, Worldwide

Unit: K

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

2G Cellular 2.5G Cellular 3G Cellular Total Cellular

2G Cellular CAGR(06-11): - 42.4%

2.5G Cellular CAGR(06-11): - 2.9%

3G Cellular CAGR(06-11): 32.9%

Driver for semiconductor market:

Higher-than-expected demand for memory, especially flash, could boost overall semiconductor content and increase growth for the semiconductor market.

Advanced mobile devices, offering digital services and robust access to the Internet at attractive prices, could boost sales of 3G devices.

The addition of functions such as GPS functionality and mobile TV could add to the cost of components and increase overall semiconductor value in the handset and devices for enterprise users.


Manufacturers' Sales of Mobile Terminals to End Users: Worldwide, 2006 and 2005

manufacturer 06 units (K) 06 mkt shr 05 units (K) 05 mkt shr Mkt shr change

Nokia 344,916 34.8% 265,615 32.5% 2.3%

Motorola 209,251 21.1% 144,920 17.7% 3.4%

Samsung 116,480 11.8% 103,754 12.7% -0.9%

Sony Ericsson 73,642 7.4% 51,774 6.3% 1.1%

LG 61,986 6.3% 54,925 6.7% -0.4%

BenQ Mobile 23,558 2.4% 39,692 4.9% -2.5%

Sagem 15,893 1.6% 16,327 2.0% -0.4%

Sharp 12,589 1.3% 9,881 1.2% 0.1%

Sanyo 9,040 0.9% 10,690 1.3% -0.4%

NEC 8,403 0.8% 10,572 1.3% -0.5%

Ohters 115,105 11.6% 108,414 13.4% -1.8%

Total 990,863 100% 816,563 100%

ODM Handsets as Percentage of Total is expected to be around 18% in 2006.


Taiwanese ODMs: Strong R&D Keeps Them Competitive in 2006

Name Own brand

Technologies supported

Technology supplier

Customers Shipm. 05(K)

Shipm. 06(K)

Shipm. 07(K)

Arima Comm.

- GSM/WCDMA Broadcom, Agere, Ericsson Mobile

Sony Ericsson, NEC, LG, O2, iSmart

12,000 13,000 20,000

Asus Comm.

- GSM Infineon Technology

Vodafone, O2 600 600 1,000

BenQ Mobile

BenQ-Siemens

GSM/WCDMA, CDMA

- - 3,980 2,400 -

Chi Mei Comm.

- GSM/WCDMA TI, Infineon Motorola 700 12,000 30,000

Compal Comm.

- GSM/WCDMA, CDMA

TI Motorola, Alcatel, Eastcom, Datalog, Panasonic,

30,000 65,000 75,000

HTC Dopod WCDMA, CDMA

Broadcom, TI, Ericsson Mobile, Qualcomm, Samsung

O2, T-Mobile, Orange, Palm, Dopod International, NTT DoCoMo, Cingular Wireless, Softbank

6,850 8,000 10,000

Inventec Okwap GSM - Huawei technologies, JiTong 1,800 2,000 3,000

MiTAC Mio GSM Intel Own-brand only 500 500 500

Quanta - GSM ADI, Qualcomm Toshiba, O2, NEC, HP, E-ten 2,900 2,000 2,600

Others 9,690 1,000 1,200

Total 69,020 106,500 143,300


Personal Computer Production Forecast, Worldwide

Unit: K

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Desktop PCs Mobile PCs Total PCs

Desktop PCs CAGR(06-11): 4.0%

Mobile PCs CAGR(06-11): 18.2%

Forecast Overview:

The upward revision reflects expectations for stronger mobile PC shipment growth as well as more-robust emerging market growth.

Deskbased PC shipment growth has been reduced on expectations of weaker replacement activity and more-aggressive mobile-for-deskbased substitution in mature markets.

Worldwide PC ASP will decline 9.7 percent in 2006 and 7.3 percent in 2007. Windows Vista impact could drive demand gradually in 2007.


Complement—1. Focus Strategy on design-in TAM (1)

Manufacturing Model Brand Design Purchase ProductionOEM Y YODM N YEMS N N YBrand (Assembley Only) Y N N NR&D Only N Y N NSubsystems (not EE) N Y

(Blanks indicate Y or N is possible)

Remember:

OEM, ODM, EMS etc are not Company Types but Manufacturing Models

Five major EE manufacturing models


Complement--2. Focus Strategy on design-in TAM (2)

Equipment Brand Design-Win Purchasing

Suppliers Potential Potential Potential

Canon 977 977 98

Sony 818 818 655

Sanyo 53 692 692

Premier 264 371 148

Kodak 634 290 290

Panasonic 264 264 132

Casio 132 132 132

Fuji Photo 132 58 26

Konica Minolta 95 53 26

Nikon 132 24 24

Olympus 158 21 21

Ricoh 48 11 11

Pentax 26 11 0

Others 50 62 1529

Total 3,783 3,783 3,783

Semiconductor Consumption per EEM(US$M)

Gartner 2007 plan includes

3TAM reports for:

1. 3G Phone

2. Mobile PC

3. Video Game Console

4. Wireless LAN Infrstr

5. LCD TV

6. Portable Navigation dev.

7. Airbag

8. DSL CPE

3TAM analysis for Digital Still Cameras:

the value of gartner. © 2006 gartner, inc. all rights reserved. 2 allen liao 廖銘仁 學歷 : b....

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the value of gartner. © 2006 gartner, inc. all rights reserved. 2 allen liao 廖銘仁學歷 : b....