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, (climax) . . (, 1994: 139). (Cryer & Elton, 1990; Masys, 2004) . ' ' .

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2) (, topology) 20 , . . . , , . . . . 20 , (catastrophe theory), (bifurcation theory), (chaos theory) .

31

(, 2001: 271). () (transfer) . (Saunders, 1980).

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1972 R. Thom ,4) E. Zeeman(1973, 1976, 1977) H. J. Sussman(1976, 1978) . .5) . . 1978 Catastrophe Theory and the Study of War .

3) , . . . .

4) Thom . 1966-67 , 1972 (, 1998:2-3). 1960 .

5) Thom , , . 1974 Sussman . , 1978 Behavioral Science .

32 43 3

Lawrence Markus Robert T. Holt Brian L. Job 6) . , (explaining) (description) . , , .7)

. , . , (deus ex machina) . , . (Adelman & Hihn,

1982), (Scott & Sattler, 1983) (Sheridan & Abelson, 1983) . (Smith, 1994), (Kulkoski, 2005) . , , , . , ,

. . (, 1998) (, 2004)

6) Thom . Thom , . ((), 1995).

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33

. (, 2001), (, 1996). (, 1998, 1999) (, 2008) .

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8) . . t t+1 . , .

34 43 3

.9)

(fold) 1 1 1 1

(cusp) 1 2 1 2

(swallowtail) 1 3 3 3

(butterfly) 1 4 2 3

(hyperbolic umbilic) 2 3 3 3

(elliptic umbilic) 2 3 3 4

(parabolic umbilic) 2 4 2 4

: Saunders(1980:41-60) .

7 . . . - (threshold) . , ,

( ) . . (, 1998:80). (butterfly catastrophe) .

.

9) Saunders, P. T. (1980). Cambridge University Press. Guastello, Stephen J. (1995). New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates .

35

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36 43 3

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37

. 3(trimodality) . (sudden jump) , (inaccessibility) . , . () , (divergence) . (context) ,

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.

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, . , . . . .

. . , . . . .

. (narrative fallacy) . , . (, 2008).

. , . . . . , . .

. (the curse of

45

learning) (Taleb, 2007). , . (outlier)

. (the straw that broke the camel's back) (Gilmore, 1996). . , . . (small change)

. , . M. Gladwell(2002) , N. Taleb(2007) . . . ,

((Taleb, 2007: 11). . . . (incremental), (evolutionary) (Guastello, 1995; Rosser, 2000 ). .

4.

, , , , , . . Guastello(1981) (, 1998).

46 43 3

(, 2008). .

. . , . .

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47

( ) . , . . ,

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48 43 3

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. . . .

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: 2008 (: ) , . , , , , (juyongjeong@naver.com)

: 2009 7 15 : 2009 8 20: 2009 9 12

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