Three Steps to Achieve Ecological Civilization

迈向生态文明的实践步骤 Clifford Cobb 克利福德 · 科布

In the year 1275, when Thomas Aquinas was writing his great synthesis of Greek philosophy and Christian theology, the world that he knew seemed like a healthy body with all of the parts working together smoothly. In that era of order and relative prosperity, intellectual life became so refined that scholars could spend their time debating how many angels could dance on the head of a pin.

1270 年，对于正在写作关于古希腊哲学与基督教神学的集大成之作的托马斯 · 阿奎那而言，他所知道的世界就像一个健壮的身躯，各个组成部分都畅通无阻地运行着。在那个秩序井然而且相对繁荣的时代，知识分子的生活精致而优雅，以至于学者们致力于讨论诸如一个针尖上能够有多少个天使跳舞这样深奥的问题。

One would never guess from reading Aquinas and the work of other scholars at the University of Paris that there was a massive environmental crisis on the horizon. Yet, just three generations later, a seemingly trivial event occurred that almost destroyed European society. As a result of what is now called "globalization," there was growing trade in the Mediterranean and beyond. So, it was easy for a few rats to climb on board a ship in India and jump off again in Constantinople (Istanbul today).

如果阅读阿奎那和他在巴黎大学那些同事们的著作，我们绝对不会推测出一场大规模的环境危机正在向他们逼近。然后，仅仅在三代或四代之后发生的一件似乎毫不起眼的小事，几乎摧毁了整个欧洲社会。作为“全球化”的结果，地中海及其周边地区的贸易日渐繁荣。因此，如果有几只老鼠在印度爬上船板，又在君士坦丁堡（今天的伊斯坦布尔）跳到岸上，是再正常不过的事情了。

Unfortunately, the fleas on those rats carried a disease called Bubonic Plague. From 1348 to 1350, that disease spread throughout Europe and killed 30 to 40 per cent of the population. Trade collapsed. Jews were attacked and expelled from some countries. The lives of peasants improved somewhat as wages rose, but urban development and innovation stalled.

不幸的是，那些老鼠身上的跳蚤携带着一种被称为“黑死病”的疾病。在 1348 到 1350 仅仅两年间，这种疾病蔓延至整个欧洲，有 30% 至 40% 的欧洲人因为它而丧生。它在欧洲人的心灵中留下了无法抹去的伤痕。自然逐渐被视为人类进步的敌人，这种想法强化了那种认为人类必须征服自然而不是在自然的限度内生活的观念。

If globalization contributed to a massive collapse of social order in 1350, a similar epidemic in the near future would cause even greater devastation. Epidemiologists tell us that an epidemic disease would spread around the world far faster today through airports than in did in the past. Depending on the nature of the disease, it could kill the productive members of each family and leave children and the elderly to manage on their own. Already we can observe that phenomenon in South Africa, Uganda, Kenya, and other African countries where AIDS kills men and women at the peak of their lives.

如果全球化要为 1350 年社会秩序的崩溃承担责任的话，那么在我们不久的将来将要出现的类似的流行疾病甚至可能造成更大规模的破坏。在今天，流行疾病在世界范围内传播的速度要甚于从前。由于疾病的性质，它很可能只杀死每个家庭中具有劳动力的成员，而留下家中白发垂髫之人自生自灭。我们已经能够在南非和非洲大陆的其他国家中观察到这种现象，在那里，感染艾滋病而死去的正是那些仍是壮年的男男女女。

Disease outbreaks will be exacerbated by other problems that are also becoming more serious. The rising price of energy has already begun to raise the cost of producing and transporting food. Conflicts over petroleum and water rights are becoming a prominent aspect of global tension, and those conflicts will escalate in the future. Increased climate variability will cause regional crop failures, forcing food prices to rise everywhere.

其他一些同样愈演愈烈的问题将会加剧疾病的爆发。能源价格的不断上涨开始增加了生产和运输食品与水的成本。争夺石油和水资源权利的冲突日渐演变成导致全球紧张气氛的主要因素，而且那些冲突在未来将会逐渐升级。不断加剧的气候变化将会造成地区性的农作物歉收，从而导致各地的食品价格上涨。

Hunger will weaken the poorest members of society and increase the spread of disease. The simplification of eco-systems and loss of genetic variation increases vulnerability to crop failures and destruction by pests. Just as beneficial aspects of social interaction work together synergistically to permit economic growth, the same process can work in reverse to cause accelerating catastrophe.

饥饿会使社会中最贫穷者更加虚弱，从而扩大了疾病传播的范围。生态系统的单一化和基因多样性的丧失（ loss of genetic variation ）增加了农作物歉收和遭受病虫害破坏的几率。正如社会交往的积极方面以一种螺旋式上升的方式发挥作用从而为经济增长提供机会一样，同样的过程也可能以一种螺旋式下降的方式发挥作用从而加速灾难的来临。

If there is failure in the systems that humans have devised to protect society from these problems, the results could be far worse now than in 1348. Seven centuries ago, most people lived on farms and when disaster struck, people from towns could return to villages. In this century, that safety valve is no longer available. Half the world now lives in cities. Village economies have become tied to the world economy. Thus, everyone will suffer as systems fail.

如果人们设计用来保护社会免受这些问题影响的机制失去效力的话，那么这种失效在今天带来的后果要比 1348 年更为严重。 在七个世纪以前，大多数人生活在农庄。而当灾难来袭，城镇中的居民就会返回到乡村。而在本世纪，这种（城市与乡村之间的）安全阀不再发挥作用。如今，世界上有一半人口生活在城市。（即使是）乡村经济也已经变得与世界经济密切相连。因此，当整个系统停止运转时，每一个人都要承受其后果。即使不是疾病的爆发，也可能爆发许多其他类型的灾难。例如，如果世界石油供应在短短几个月内锐减到一般，那么向城市运输食品和水就会成为一个大问题。而当数百万人忍饥挨饿，城市的秩序就会荡然无存。

A world crisis that could destroy civilization is not a distant threat. It is already upon us. The crisis is evident in the form of increasing damage from floods and hurricanes, new viruses such as AIDS, avian flu and "mad cow" disease, a global battle to control energy supplies, the melting of ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland, the rapid extinction of species, particularly in rain forests, the collapse of regional fisheries, and the decline of beneficial insect populations (particularly bees).

一次足以摧毁文明的世界危机并不是一个遥不可及的威胁。事实上，它已经悬在我们的头顶。来自于洪水和飓风、诸如艾滋病之类的新病毒、禽流感和“疯牛”病、控制能源供应的世界性战争、南极洲和格陵兰岛冰层的溶化、物种的迅速绝迹、热带雨林的破坏、地区性渔业的崩溃、益虫数量的减少（特别是蜜蜂）等等的伤害日益增多，无一不在提示我们危机的无处不在。

That is only a partial list of signs of extreme stress on natural systems. In addition to the threats to security from natural causes, there is another list that can be traced to human systems: nuclear weapons, industrial pollution, growing economic instability and inequality. These problems are reported sporadically rather than systematically, so the public remains blissfully unaware of how dangerous the world is becoming.

那还仅仅是自然系统所承受的种种极端压力迹象的清单的一部分。除了这些由自然因素所引发的安全威胁之外，还有一系列威胁可以追溯到人类系统内部：核武器、工业污染、愈演愈烈的经济不稳定和经济不平等。这些问题散见于零星的报道，并没有得到系统地发掘，以至于公众仍沉浸在幸福喜悦之中，丝毫没有意识到危险正在一步步逼近。

As this crisis unfolds, irrelevant debates dominate every academic discipline. It seems that leading intellectuals are once again discussing how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. Recently, I overheard a private conversation among three American philosophers who concluded that their field of study had nothing to teach except how to think more logically.

正如危机所展示的那样，一些无关紧要的争论主导着每个学科。似乎（这个时代）最重要的知识分子们正在再一次讨论一个针尖上能有多少个天使跳舞的问题。我无意中曾经听到过三位美国哲学家的一次私人谈话。他们得出结论说，他们的研究领域唯一教给人们的是如何让思考更富有逻辑性。

Those are the people who should be dealing with the broader questions of meaning and purpose and providing a synthetic view of the world. Instead, they are professionally committed to trivia. We cannot expect the other disciplines to make up for that failure of philosophy.

而这些哲学家，恰恰应该是关注上述那些意义深远并且目的明确的问题的人，他们应该做的是提供一套关于世界的综合性观点。但是，他们却将他们的专业知识用于纠缠细枝末节。我们不能期待让其他学科去为知识整体性的缺乏进行弥补。

They have followed the same path toward specialization and increasing irrelevance. As we race toward the collapse of human civilization, the members of each discipline focus on narrower and narrower questions that serve only to define the nature of that discipline.

所有学科都遵循同样的路径走向专业化和越来越

强调细节。正如我们人类文明的崩溃，每一个学科的成员关注的问题领域越来越狭窄，对于人类的用途也越来越乏善可陈。

Searching for New Tools寻找新的方法

If an intellectual comes to realize that we are in the midst of a growing ecological crisis on a global scale, what should he or she do? Although it is painful to realize, the answer may be that it is too late to make much difference. New ideas usually take at least a generation or two to have an impact.

如果一个知识分子逐渐意识到我们已经身处于日益加剧的全球性生态危机之中，那么，他或她应该采取怎样的行动呢？答案可能是，一切已经太迟了，采取任何行动都已是徒劳。（因为）新的观念通常要经过一代人或者两代人才能产生影响。

Yet within two generations, we are likely to face global system failures that cannot be corrected with minor adjustments. Thus, it may be too late to save the highly integrated form of global civilization that we currently inhabit. Perhaps we should now be planning for the more fragmented type of society that might emerge from a series of climatic and biological disasters.

但是，可能在两代之内，我们就要去面对全球体系运转的故障，而细微的调整已经无法使状况得到（根本性的）改善。因此，可能已是为时已晚，已经无法保护我们当前所生活的全球文明的高级综合形式。或许我们现在应该为更为碎片化的社会类型进行计划，经过一系列气候和生物灾难，这种社会可能就会出现。

But since there may still be time to make corrections that will ease the transition to a new global order, my own approach is to propose options that might reduce the severity of the crises that we will endure.

但是，因为还有时间做出纠正，降低新全球秩序的转变，因此，我自己的思路是要在现存的经济和政治框架内提出观点。

1. Direct vs. Indirect Action 直接行动 VS 间接行动 At the most general level, what is most needed to achieve e

cological civilization is the development of new tools for how to think, specifically how to think holistically. The need for such thinking has frequently been discussed, but with the exception of a handful of people such as Gregory Bateson, Ludwig von Bertalanffy, John Maynard Keynes, and Buckminster Fuller, there has been little specificity about how intellectual activity might be re-oriented. Today, I will just offer one element of that re-orientation.

在最一般的层面上，要想实现生态文明的目标，首先需要做的就是寻找一套新的关于如何思考，特别是如何历史性思考的方法。尽管人们频频提及对这种思考方式的需要，但是，除了像格雷戈里‧贝茨、路德维格 ·冯 ·贝塔朗菲、约翰 ·梅纳德 ·凯恩斯、巴克敏斯特 ·富勒这样的一群人之外，几乎没有任何特征能够说明如何才能对知识分子的行为进行重新导向。今天，我只想提到重新导向的一个因素。

When contemplating an effort to change the direction of social behavior, what kind of process works better: a direct approach or an indirect one? Direct action presumes simple linear causation: A causes B. Indirect action regards causation as complex and following multiple pathways.

当我们在思考如何努力改变社会行为的方向时，哪种类型的过程效果更好：一种直接的进路还是间接的进路？直接行为假设简单的、线性的因果关系： A导致 B 。而间接行为则将因果关系视为复杂的、接下来具有多种途径的行为。

When the governments of India and China decided they needed to curb population growth, each of them approached the problem directly. They tried to limit allowable births. Both discovered that enforcement of a law that contradicts social norms is difficult.

当印度政府和中国政府做出决定要控制人口增长的时候，二者都直接着手处理问题。它们限制正当人口的出生率。

Many problems can in fact be solved through direct action, so it is understandable that it became a dogma of modern thinking to believe that all problems could eventually be solved in that manner. But problems that occur in systems with complex feedback networks cannot be addressed effectively with direct action. That includes most biological and social problems.

事实上，许多问题可以通过直接行动的方式得到解决。所以，那些坚信所有问题最终都能够以这种方式得到解决的现代思想的教条是可以理解的。但是，许多在系统内部与复杂的反作用网络密切相关的问题，是无法通过直接行动的方式被有效提及的。大多数生物的和社会的问题都可以包含在这一类问题之中。

The search for indirect solutions requires a methodology that is quite different from one that seeks direct solutions. Instead of isolating a simple set of relationships, which characterizes the Western mode of scientific thinking, indirect approaches require attention to the context of events. In addition, discovery of indirect solutions can only occur by learning to recognize that invisible relations may be more important than visible ones.

寻找间接解决过程要求一种非常不同于寻求直接解决过程的方法论。寻求直接解答采取的方法是将一套简单的关系彼此孤立，这也是西方科学思维模式的主要特征。而寻找间接解答的进路则与寻求直接解答不同，它要求特别注意问题的背景。除此之外，只有当我们学会承认那些无形的关系比有形的关系更为重要时，才会发现间接的解决途径。

In this regard, the people of East Asia already have an advantage. There are cultural differences in perception that enable East Asians to observe the context of an event instead of focusing narrowly on one aspect of a situation or system. This characteristic has been demonstrated with equipment that reveals how long the eye focuses on different parts of a photograph.

关于这一点，东亚人已经拥有一个有利条件。理解上存在的文化差异使得东亚人能够观察事件的背景，而不仅仅强调一种状况或一个系统的一个方面。这种特征已经用仪器得到证明，这个仪器揭示出眼睛在相片的不同部分能够集中多长时间。

When shown a photograph, Westerners focused almost exclusively on the object in the foreground, spending little time observing the surroundings or context. By contrast, East Asians gazed evenly over the entire photograph, with only a little extra attention devoted to the object in the foreground. This clearly demonstrates that East Asians see wholes, while Westerners see only parts.

如果面前展示出一幅照片，西方人几乎毫无例外地关注前景中的物体，几乎对环境或背景视而不见。而与之相反，东亚人会均匀地注视整幅照片，仅仅会把很少的额外注意力投注到前景的物体上。这就清晰地证明了东亚人看重整体，而西方人仅仅看重部分。

Western perception is thus a kind of partial blindness. The most frightening feature of modern education is that that form of blindness is now being promoted everywhere in the world as the highest form of understanding.

因此，西方人的理解具有一种局部性失明。现代教育最让人恐慌的特征正是那种形式的失明，现在正被作为理解的最高形式在世界范围内四处推广。

Ecological civilization can thus emerge only by reorienting the way in which children and adults are taught to think. The deep cultural resources for this lie primarily in China, not in the West. It may not be too strong to say that the fate of the world depends on China developing that resource and teaching it to the world.

因此，只有重新教会儿童和成人的思考方式，生态文明才可能出现。实现这一目标的深层文化资源在中国而不在西方。说世界的命运在于中国并不为过，要发展这一资源，并将其推广至全世界。

2. Land tenure and Land use 土地所有制与土地使用 Another issue that confronts China is to how to ma

nage a large population on a relatively narrow strip of land along the coast. There are four aspects of this issue: 1) the physical condition of the land, 2) the ownership of land, both in cities and in the countryside, 3) the choice between economic and political methods to decide the way land is to be used, and 4) the density of human habitations. The manner in which these issues are addressed can make a big difference in determining whether ecological civilization will be attained.

中国面临的另一个问题是如何管理居住在沿海相对狭长地带的大批人口。这一问题表现为四个方面：（ 1 ）土地的物理状况；（ 2 ）城市与农村中土地的所有权；（ 3 ）在决定土地使用方式的经济方法与政治方法二者之间进行选择；（ 4 ）人居环境的密度。这些问题以何种方式被提出，会对生态文明是否能够实现产生至关重要的影响。

Scientists tend to treat the question of the physical condition of land in isolation from other factors. They describe the chemical needs of soil to be productive in agriculture and the physical characteristics required for construction of buildings or roads. The fundamental questions for national policy regarding land are not, however, about the physical characteristics of land. The crucial issues for government are indirect: not how to manage the land, but who will manage it.

科学家倾向于在不考虑其他因素的情况下将问题视为土地的物理状况的问题。他们描述农业所需要的具有肥力的土壤的化学要求，描述建筑结构或者道路结构所需要的土壤的物理特性。但是，对于国家政策而言，土地的基本问题并不是其物理特性。对于政府而言，关键的问题是间接性的：不是如何去管理土地，而是谁去管理土地。

There is, however, one physical feature that shapes human settlements and their location more than any other: the weight of water. It is possible to carry water long distances in pipes or to draw it from the earth, but doing so is costly in terms of energy and capital. As a result, human settlements have always been near water, which is necessary for life and for transporting large objects. Land for growing food and land for building cities is far more valuable near water than far away.

然而，有一种物理特征对于人类居住区及其位置的影响远远超过其他因素：水的重要性。利用输送管远距离运水或者从地下取水并非是不可能的，但是这样做在能源和资本方面都是非常昂贵的。因此，人类的居住区总是靠近水，它对于生活和运输大型物体而言必不可少。无论是用于种植粮食的土地还是用于城市建筑的土地，靠近水源的区域要比远离水源的区域昂贵得多。

This may seem obvious, but plans for the construction of new cities in northern China, an area with severe water shortages, seem to ignore these natural limits. Water from the Yangtze can be carried north, but the cost will be quite large, and cities and farms relying on that distant water will be vulnerable.

这一点似乎是显而易见的，但是在中国水资源严重短缺的北方，新兴城市的建筑计划似乎忽视了这些自然条件的限制。长江的水被调到北方，但是成本是非常巨大的，而且那些依赖远距离供水的城市和村庄将是非常脆弱的。

The biggest factors in shaping the use of land are decisions about who owns the land and who will decide how to use it. For farming, the two questions are closely related. When peasants own their own land, they use techniques that maintain the soil for centuries. When another person, either a landlord or a collective, owns the land, the quality of care declines. For ecological civilization, private ownership is not enough.

决定土地使用的最重要因素在于对谁拥有土地和谁决定如何使用土地。对于农业而言，这两个问题是密切相关的。如果农民拥有自己的土地，那么他们会运用各种技术让土壤世代保持肥沃。但如果拥有土地的是其他人，无论这个其他人是地主还是工厂主（ a collective ），这种对土地的关爱都会有所降低。当然，对于生态文明而言，仅仅是私人所有制并不足够。

There are collective problems, such as water management and wildlife preservation, that cannot be solved by individuals. Those problems require collective institutions, both local and national. Chinese civilization was built with a balance between national and local institutions. Although that balance has broken down during the past two centuries, it can be restored.

还存在着诸如水资源管理和野生动物保护这样的集体性问题，这些问题是无法通过个人得到解决的。那些问题的解决需要在地方和国家两个层面都建立集体性制度。中华文明建立于国家制度和地方制度二者之间的平衡。尽管在过去的两百年间，这种平衡已经被打破，但是它是能够被重建的。

Although many people in China are suspicious of the power of the central government, I believe that increasing the power of the central government is the only way to restore ecological balance. Otherwise, local concerns will always take precedence over national and global issues.

尽管许多中国人对中央政府的权力心存疑虑，但是我坚信，只有增加中央政府的权力才是回复生态平衡的惟一途径。除此之外，地方关注将总是优先于国家问题和全球问题。

In urban areas, privatization of land is also necessary to achieve its efficient use, but again private ownership needs to be balanced with institutions devoted to the public interest. The aim of public policy should be to encourage widespread ownership of land and to prevent a few people from gaining control of the land and exercising undue control over local economies. Government ownership combined with private leases might seem to be a way of solving these problems. But that approach will fail in the long run.

在城市地区，土地私有化对于土地的有效利用也是必不可少的（途径）。但是，私人所有制也同样需要与那些致力于公共利益的制度保持平衡。公共政策的目标应该是鼓励土地的普遍所有制，避免少数人对土地进行控制，从而避免少数人对地方经济的不适当控制。政府所有权与私人租赁相结合，似乎是解决这些问题的一种方式。但是这种方法从长远来看是行不通的。

Giving government officials control over land use simply means that power is concentrated in the hands of those officials. Many violent conflicts in China today stem from the abuse of official power over land use. In addition, without prices to allocate land, Chinese officials devote land to low-intensity uses in places that should be intensively developed. Finally, current leases are not effective.

给予政府官员控制土地使用（的权力）就意味着这种权力被集中在那些官员的手中。当今中国的许多暴力冲突东都根源于官员对控制土地使用这一权力的滥用。此外，如果，中国的官员就会把本应该集中发展的土地进行低程度的使用。最终使得当前对土地的租赁并不是非常有效的。

They allow private leaseholders to gain from the increase in value of their locations, even though they do nothing to create that value. As Sun Zhong-shan understood, those increases in land value should be captured for the public. The easiest way to accomplish the multiple goals of China’s leaders and move toward ecological civilization would be to permit private ownership of land, but balance it with a tax that would recapture the public value. China is not currently ready to adopt such a policy, but it should be researched now in anticipation of changes that might occur.

这种租赁允许私人租赁者从他们所租赁土地增长的价值中获益，即使并非是他们创造了这一价值。正如孙中山所认为的一样，那些土地价值的增加部分应该由公众获得。完成中国领导人多样性目标和向生态文明迈进的最简单的方式应该是允许土地的私人所有制，但是应该用一种能够重新获得公共价值的税收来对土地私人所有制进行平衡。中国当前尚不具备采取这种政策的条件，但是现在就应该就可能发生的变化的预测进行调查研究。

Rrelated to the ownership and use of land is the density of land use. There are two kinds of density, one good, one bad. Cities work effectively if the area density (persons per hectare) is high, but they become places of conflict if household density (persons per room) becomes too high. High area density reduces costs of public services and permits public transit to work effectively.

与土地所有权和土地利用密切相关的是土地使用的密度。土地使用密度有两种类型，一种是好的，一种是坏的。如果城市的区域密度（每公顷的人数）高，那么这些城市是有效运行的。但是，如果城市的居住密度（每个房间的人数）太高的话，那么这些城市就会不断地爆发冲突。高区域密度降低了公共设施的价格，并使得公共交通能够有效地运转。

High area density can be achieved with low household density by building a large number of housing units per hectare, which means building upward, not outward. Current urban land use policies in China are extremely wasteful of space. That is why cities such as Beijing are so extensive (spread out) and also why travel within cities is becoming so difficult. High area density would permit more use of underground rail systems.

我们可以通过在每公顷土地上建造大量的住房单元来同时实现低居住密度和高区域密度两个目标，而这就意味着我们的建筑应该向高发展而不是向外发展。当前中国的城市土地使用政策是对空间的极端浪费。这就是为什么像北京这样的城市如此庞大（摊开），这也是为什么城市内部的 travel 正在变得如此困难。高区域密度将会允许地下铁路系统的更广泛运用。

High area density not only improves public services by lowering their cost per person. A high density urban policy would also reduce pressure to encroach on the surrounding countryside. The current pressure on the countryside in China creates constant conflict with farmers and destroys what little wildlife remains. Finding ways to limit the geographical growth of human habitation is crucial to the survival of both humans and other species.

高区域密度不仅是通过降低每个人的成本改善了公共设施。一个高密度的城市政策也应该减少对周边农村的侵食。中国农村当前所面临的受到侵食的压力制造着与农民之间的持续不断的冲突，也毁灭着那些已经所剩无几的野生动植物。寻找途径来限制人类居住地在地理空间上的增长，成为保护人类和其他物种生存之要务。

3. Economic growth vs. the environment – Is there always a trade-off?

经济增长与环境：总是存在一种平衡吗？

Another form of growth that appears to threaten the survival of humans and other species is economic growth. There is some validity to that view. If economic growth is accompanied by increases in consumption of raw materials and increases in the production of dangerous waste materials, then there is a direct conflict between economic growth and ecological civilization. Until economic growth is disconnected from excessive consumption and waste, it will remain the most destructive force on the planet.

另一种看来会威胁人类和其他物种生存的增长形式是经济增长。这种观点有些合理性。如果经济增长伴随着原材料消耗的增长和危险废弃物质生产的增加，那么，在经济发展和生态文明之间就存在一种直接的冲突。除非经济增长与过多的原材料消耗和废弃物生产相脱离，否则，它会一直是地球上最具破坏性的力量。

However, since there are benefits of economic growth, it would be unfortunate if eliminating it became a primary objective of policy. It would be far better if the benefits of growth could be retained while giving up its negative elements. Thus far, that possibility has not been considered. The debate is locked in place between pro-growth and anti-growth factions, with no space available for a third position.

但是，由于经济增长能够带来许多好处，因此，如果要把拒绝经济增长作为政策的主要目标的话，就会显得非常不合时宜。而如果能够保留经济增长带来的好处而抛弃它所带来的消极因素的话，情况则要好很多。迄今为止，这种可能性还没有被考虑。（关于经济增长的）争论被禁锢在促进增长和反对增长两派之间，第三种立场无法找到容身之地。

In my view it is possible to have rapid economic growth in combination with diminishing ecological impacts of economic activity. That combination cannot be achieved in a managed economy, such as China’s, however. It can only be accomplished if the price system is used to allocate resources. With a price system in place, it is possible, in principle, to regulate behavior with taxes and subsidies that alter the price faced by consumers and businesses.

在我看来，经济的迅速增长完全可以与消除经济活动的生态影响相互结合。然而这种结合是无法在像中国这样的调控经济中实现的。只有当运用价格系统来分配资源时才能够达到这一结合的目标。在一个适当的价格系统内部，在原则上可以运用税收和津贴来控制行为，而税收和津贴改变了消费者和商家所面对的价格。

Thus, for example, if an economy is growing by 4% per year, that would normally be associated with an increase in energy consumption of at least 4% per year, perhaps more. But if taxes raised the price of energy by 10% per year, that would create a strong incentive for consumers and businesses to invest in equipment that used far less energy. There are thousands of technical instruments by which households and businesses can substitute capital for energy (and other raw materials), but those instruments are not being used because the current price is too low.

因此，例如，如果经济以每年 4% 的速度增长，那么它通常伴随着 4% 或许更多的能源消耗的增长。但是如果每年税收将能源的价格增长了 10% ，那么就会让消费者和商家产生强烈的动机去投资到那些低能源消耗的设备上。家庭和商家能够使用成千上万的技术设施来用资本替代能源（或者其他原材料），但是这些设备由于当前的价格太低现在并没有投入使用。

Will a rise in the price of raw materials, as a result of taxes on them, impose hardships on the poor? The short answer is yes. The long answer is that it depends on whether other policies are put in place to offset those hardships. If governments care about the poor, they can alleviate poverty. The problem is not the technical means. The problem is that no government on the planet today really cares about the plight of poor people.

作为增加税收结果的原材料价格上涨会给穷人带来负担吗？就眼前而言，对这个问题的回答是肯定的。但是就长期而言，对这个问题的回答则依赖于是否能采取其他适当的措施来抵消那些困苦。如果政府关注穷人，那么它们就能够缓解贫穷。问题并非技术手段能够解决。问题在于，在今天的地球上，没有任何政府真正关注穷人的困境。

A bigger obstacle to what I am proposing stems from the skepticism of Western-trained economists. Almost all of them believe that raising the price of energy and other raw materials would slow down the rate of growth. They use complex mathematical models to explain why a rise in energy prices will cause the economy to grow more slowly. But all of those models begin with the premise that they set out to prove. The negative relationship between growth and energy prices is built into the models.

我要提出的一个更大的障碍来自于受过西方训练的经济学家的怀疑论。几乎所有的经济学家都认为，增加能源和其他原材料的价格将会减慢（经济）增长。它们运用复杂的数学模型来解释，为什么能源价格的增长会让经济增长更加缓慢。但是，所有这些模型都以他们想要证明的前提作为开端。经济增长和能源价格的消极关联被整合到模型中。

The best evidence that they are wrong comes from history. In 1974, when OPEC first engineered a dramatic rise in the price of oil, there was a sharply negative effect on the economic growth of most countries. But the opposite relationship occurred in a few countries, such as Japan and Brazil.

但是我们能够从历史中找到最有利的证据证明他们（的观点）是错误的。 1974 年，当石油输出国组织（ OPEC ）第一次策划了石油价格的急剧上涨，对于大多数国家的经济增长产生了十分消极的影响。但是在日本和巴西等少数几个国家却出现了相反的情况。

They were able to maintain economic growth without inflation, despite the rise of oil prices, by following an expansionary monetary policy. American and European economists learned the wrong lesson from 1974, and ever since then, they have been perpetuating a false concept about linkage between cheap energy and economic growth.

尽管石油价格上涨了，但是它们没有采取一种膨胀的货币政策，因此没有受到通货膨胀的影响，从而继续保持了经济增长的势头。美国和欧洲的经济学家从 1974 年的危机中汲取了错误的经验，并且从那之后，他们让那种认为在价格低廉的能源和经济增长两者间具有紧密联系的错误观念一直延续下拉。

It is possible to delink the use and abuse of nature from the growth of economies. That is true because the crucial feature of economic growth is not resource use but the intensification of human interaction in the sphere of exchange. It is not necessary to damage the earth to promote the well-being of humans.

将利用和滥用自然同各种经济的增长相脱离是可能的。之所以这样说，是因为经济增长的根本特征并不是资源的利用，而是交换领域中人类相互作用的增强。完全没有必要通过破坏地球的方式来促进人类的福利。

Conclusion 结语 In this paper, I have argued that the prospects for the de

velopment of ecological civilization are very limited. Industrial civilization may already have caused so much destruction and human populations may have grown so large that decades of catastrophe will follow no matter how much effort is applied now to changing course. But that is not a certainty. Rather than wallowing in despair, we can try to make the necessary changes before an epidemic or other catastrophe strikes.

在这篇文章中我反复指出，生态文明发展的前景是非常有限的。工业文明已经引发了许多灾难，人类的人口数量也已经膨胀到如此巨大的规模，可能无论我们现在做出怎样的努力来改变这一过程，延续数十年的灾难都将会降临。但是断言一切还为时尚早。我们与其沉浸在绝望的情绪中悲观失望，不如在流行性疾病或其他大灾难来袭之前，努力做出一些必要的改变。

I have offered here just three steps that could be taken to move in the direction of ecological civilization. I certainly do not believe they constitute a comprehensive plan.

在这里，我只是提出了沿着生态文明的方向前进应该采取的三个步骤。当然，我并不认为这三个步骤构成了一个综合计划。

The first step is the most important—to develop new methods of responding to problems. Of those new methods, I have emphasized one: the need to shift from direct to indirect approaches to challenges. That shift is part of a larger one that would enable human societies to consider problems holistically rather than in isolated fragments.

第一个步骤最为重要，那就是寻找新的方法来回应我们当前所面临的问题。在那些新方法之中，我特别强调了一种方法：面对挑战，我们需要从直接方法向间接方法转变。这种转变的背后意味着更大的变化，那就是促使人类社会能够历史性地而不是以孤立地、碎片式地思考问题。

The second step I have proposed is to modify land use by taxing its value and by increasing the density of cities. Those policies would lower costs of public services and reduce demand for land in the countryside. This can be achieved without crowding: the solution lies in increasing area density without increasing household density.

我在文中提出的第二个步骤是要通过根据其价值征税和增加城市密度的方式来改善土地使用状况。这些政策将会降低公共设施的成本，并且减少对农村土地的需要。这一目标可以在不出现拥挤现象的情况下得以实现：解决之道就在于增加区域密度而不增加居住密度。

Third, I recommend maintaining economic growth, but balancing it by raising prices substantially on the consumption of energy, raw materials, and waste disposal. Economic planners should seek to reduce the damage caused by economic activity without destroying the benefits of intensive exchange among humans. There is no need to stop economic growth to achieve ecological civilization, but that is true only if a serious effort is made to pinpoint the negative aspects of growth and to prevent them.

在第三个步骤中，我在主张保持经济增长的同时，希望通过充分提高能源消耗、原材料消耗和废弃物处理的价格的方式来对经济增长进行平衡。经济规划者应该在不破坏人类密集交换行为所创造的利益的情况下，努力寻求减少由经济活动所带来的破坏。我们并不需要停下经济增长的步伐去实现生态文明的目标，但是，我们也确实需要努力查明经济增长的消极方面并且防患于未然。

All of these steps can bring us somewhat closer to the goal of creating an ecological civilization. Whether it is possible to achieve that goal is an open question. Human modification of the environment may have proceeded too far, and the damage we have caused may not be reversible in some cases. The breakdown of civilization seems more likely than the creation of ecological one. All we can do at this stage is to try and hope that our efforts are not in vain.

所有这些步骤都能够让我们在一定程度上向着创造一种生态文明的目标更近一步。（但是，）是否能够实现这一目标还是一个未知之数。人类对于自然的改变可能已经走得太远，我们所造成的破坏在许多情况下可能是不可逆转的。与生态文明的建立相比较，文明崩溃的可能性似乎更大。当前我们所能做的一切就是不断努力，并且祈祷我们的努力不是徒劳。

Thank you!