tiểu luận kinh tế lượng năm học 2014-2015.docx

MC LCI. M U

1. Tnh cp thit ca ti

2. Mc tiu nghin cu

3. i tng v phm vi nghin cu

II. PHNG PHP NGHIN CU

1. Thu thp s liu

2. Phng php phn tch

III. KT QU NGHIN CU

1. nh gi thc trng

2. Phn tch cc yu t nh hng

IV. KT LUN

1. Kt lun

2. Kin ngh

I. M U1. Tnh cp thit ca tiHng nm, sau k ngh h, hng ngn sinh vin li v cc trng i hc trn khp c nc hc tp. i hc xa nh, ni lo ca sinh vin khng ch cm o, hc hnh m c ni sinh hot, ch . La chn ni ca h thng l k tc x hay tr nh dn gn trng. Tuy a s cc trng i hc u c khu k tc x cho sinh vin nhng quy m, cht lng vn cn cha c p ng tt. S lng sinh vin ng, do ch c mt phn sinh vin c trong k tc x, cn li l phi tm nh tr gn trng.Nhc n nh tr cho sinh vin, chng ta thng ngh n nhng khu nh tr cht chi, ngt ngt, nhiu bt tin. Tuy nhin cc ch nh dn ch trng hn n cht lng phng tr, v vy xut hin nhng phng tr vi din tch rng hn, thong mt hn, c kt ni mng Internet cho sinh vin thu. C nhiu yu t tc ng n quyt nh thu tr ca sinh vin; trong , gi phng tr l mi quan tm ca sinh vin trong hon cnh chi tiu cn hn hp thiu thn. Vy lm th no xc nh c nhng yu t nh hng n gi phng tr v mc tc ng ca chng nh th no v lm cch no sinh vin ln u i thu tr c th d tnh c mc gi thu phng ti khu vc xung quanh Hc Vin Nng Nghip Vit Nam nhm chng ti quyt nh tin hnh nghin cu ti: Phn tch cc yu t nh hng n gi phng tr sinh vin ti t dn ph o Nguyn, th trn Tru Qu - Gia Lm, H Ni.2. Mc tiu nghin cu Tm hiu v s lng, cht lng, gi c cc phng tr sinh vin trn khu vc kho st l t dn ph o Nguyn, th trn Trn Qu. nh gi c nhng yu t c tc ng n du lch ny trong hin ti v tng lai. nh gi khi qut v thc trng ca dch v kinh doanh phng tr sinh vin ti khu vc tin hnh kho st. Nu ra nhng xut, kin ngh thit thc i vi ngi kinh doanh phng tr trn khu vc kho st.3. i tng v phm vi nghin cu Ni dung: Nhng dy nh tr cho sinh vin thu ti t dn ph o Nguyn Phm vi nghin cu: T dn ph o Nguyn, bao gm ng ng . Thi gian: Thng 9/2014.II. PHNG PHP NGHIN CU1. Thu thp s liu: Cch thc iu tra: m bo chnh xc ca m hnh, nhm thc hin iu tra trc tip. Cc thnh vin trong nhm n gp trc tip sinh vin thu tr, phng vn trc tip, kt hp vi nhn nh ca bn thn a ra cc thng s ca phng tr mt cch chnh xc nht. Phm vi iu tra: Cc phng tr ti cc ng ng s. S lng c th: 30.2. Phng php phn tch S dng phng php thng k m hnh:Nh chng ta bit, gi c l mt trong nhng vn nhy cm, c rt nhiu sinh vin quan tm; nhng xc inh gi ca mt ti sn li khng d dng.Khi nghin cu vn ny, da trn c s cc l thuyt hnh vi ngi tiu dung v chi ph li ch ca ngi cung ng chng ti a ra nhng bin nh hng ti gi phng tr. khng lm mt i tnh thc tin v mi khu nh tr li c c tnh ring, chng ti nhn thy cc yu t nh hng n gi phng tr ni chung l: Din tch: d nhn thy, din tch cng rng, gi phng cng cao. iu ny xy ra l d hiu v ch tr chu chi ph xy dng cao hn, nhng ngi thu c sng trong khng gian d chu, thoi mi hn. S ngi trong phng: s gia tng s ngi s dn ti gia tng gi c, hoc khng Tnh hnh an ninh trt t : tnh hnh trm cp, nghin ht, ma tytc ng n tm l la chn ca sinh vin. Khong cch t ni tr ti ging ng: sinh vin u mun thu tr ni thun tin c th ti ging ng mt cch nhanh chng nht c th. c im v tr: trong ng hm hay ngoi mt ng. Thng thng, nhng phng thu ngoi mt mt ng s c gi c cao hn, ngi thu tr c iu kin s sn sng tr gi cao hn c ni thun tin trong vic i li. iu kin v sinh c nhn: v sinh khp kn (bn trong) hay v sinh chung (bn ngoi). Phng tr c h thng v sinh khp kn s to s thoi mi hn trong sinh hot cho ngi thu. Chi ph xy dng phng tr khp kn cao hn, nn gi thu cng cao hn so vi phng tr bnh thng.

Tuy nhin, vi ti ny, chng ti ch thc hin iu tra trong phm vi t dn ph o Nguyn, th trn Tru Qu; do vy nn khi la chn bin, chng ti ch chn nhng bin c trng nht, c nh hng r rng nht khu vc ny. Sau khi xem xong, chng ti quyt nh i n nghin cu cc bin sau: Th nht: X1 (m2) l din tch phng tr.Thng th din tch phng cng rng th gi cng cao, nn k vng mang du (+). Th hai: X2 (ngi) l s ngi thu trong phng . Sau khi iu tra, theo quan st ca chng ti, s ngi cng trong mt phng cng nhiu th gi cho thu cng cao. K vng mang du (+). Th ba: X3 (pht) l thi gian i hc t ch tr ti ging ng. Sinh vin u mun phng tr ca mnh cng gn trng cng tt thun tin cho vic i li. thun tin cho vic tnh ton thi gian i b t cc nh tr o Nguyn ti trng, chng ti ly ging ng Nguyn ng lm gc. Thng thng, khi cng xa trng, gi phng tr s cng r.Do vy, k vng mang du dng (-). Th t: D1 l m hnh nh tr c xy dng l nh mi bng hay nh cp bn. Hin nay, cc khu tr t dn ph o Nguyn c 2 loi phng tr l phng tr nh mi bng (nh tng) v phng tr nh cp bn. Vi cc iu kin sinh hot nh nhau, th phng tr mi bng s c gi cao hn phng tr cp bn v em li khng gian thong ng, sch s hn.Nhm quy c: D1 = 0: phng tr nh cp bn;D1 = 1: phng tr nh mi bng. Th nm: D2 l iu kin v sinh c nhn ca phng tr, c th l chung hoc ring vi cc phng tr khc trong khu tr. Nhm quy c:D2 = 0: khu v sinh chung;D2 = 1: khu v sinh ring. Bin c gii thch l Yi (triu VN): gi phng tr. M hnh hi quy mu l:Yi = a + b1X1 + b2X2 + b3X3 + b4D1 + b5D2 + uiIII. KT QU NGHIN CU1. Phn tch thc trng:Hin nay s lng cc phng tr c xy ln cho sinh vin thu ngy mt tng nhng thc s ch tr mi ch quan tm n nhu cu ca sinh vin ch cha quan tm ti cht lng mi trng sng xung quanh khu tr. V vy, c th ni dch v cho thu phng ang chy theo xu hng m ng, cn mang tnh t pht. Nhiu sinh vin chuyn tr v cht lng v sinh km, ch tr cha ch nhiu n iu kin v sinh, sinh hot s ring t, tnh an ton trong khu tr th nn h cm thy bt tin,v thi ca ch tr vi ngi thu khng c mn m. Tuy nhin, nhiu sinh vin li chu sng chung vi l v h khng bit chuyn i u, trong khi chi tiu eo hp, v cho rng: i u th phng cng th thi, s ch tr kh tnh hn; s va vp, xch mchvi ngi cng khu tr. H cho rng quen np sng ni c, nn chuyn th khng quen.2. Phn tch cc yu t nh hng:Nhm chng ti thc hin chy m hnh trn phn mm Excel 2010, kt qu nh sau:STTYi (triu)X1 (m2)X2 (ngi)X3 (m)D1D2

10,810160000

21,210250010

31,2511245011

41,312355011

51,313350001

61,313155010

71,3414470011

81,3514580011

91,3714355011

101,415480001

111,515355011

121,515250001

131,515455011

141,515445010

151,5216365011

161,616365011

171,616470011

181,5616475011

191,617370001

201,617460010

211,6517460011

221,718565011

231,718370000

241,719480011

251,719470011

261,7220390011

271,7521485010

281,75215100001

291,8214120011

302256120011

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R0,966763149

R Square0,934630986

Adjusted R Square0,921012441

Standard Error0,065329217

Observations30

ANOVA

dfSSMSFSignificance F

Regression51,4645169080,29290338268,629285662,01102E-13

Residual240,1024297590,004267907

Total291,566946667

CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-value

Intercept0,4502263560,0616484227,3031286211,523E-07

X1(m2)0,0763974680,00655872211,648224332,308E-11

X2 (ngi)0,0088270670,0160678740,5493612680,5878333

X3(m)-0,0003902630,000107244-3,639027680,0013045

D10,0487968490,0293617741,6619175820,1095375

D20,0517975340,0306574881,6895557330,104064

Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

0,322990270,57746240,3229902670,577462446

0,062860930,0899340,062860930,089934005

-0,02433540,0419895-0,024335390,041989529

-0,0006116-0,0001689-0,0006116-0,000168923

-0,01180290,1093966-0,011802870,109396573

-0,01147640,1150715-0,011476410,115071478

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

ObservationPredicted Yi (triu)Residuals

10,988870031-0,188870031

21,0855202930,114479707

31,2332284660,016771534

41,2794266570,020573343

51,326540447-0,026540447

61,2863724560,013627544

71,382509142-0,042509142

81,352309865-0,002309865

91,432221592-0,062221592

101,3710834160,028916584

111,508619059-0,008619059

121,4705083150,029491685

131,517446127-0,017446127

141,504674938-0,004674938

151,545990182-0,025990182

161,5459901820,054009818

171,5353040770,064695923

181,5157909050,044209095

191,5540776280,045922372

201,5989303560,001069644

211,65072789-0,00072789

221,716439252-0,016439252

231,5786775620,121322438

241,725470135-0,025470135

251,76449648-0,06449648

261,754014191-0,034014191

271,806954364-0,056954364

281,7602426-0,0102426

291,7221596920,077840308

302,045403697-0,045403697

Sau khi c lng v kim nh m hnh bng Excel, ta c c m hnh hi quy sau:Y= 0,450226 + 0,076397 X1 + 0,008827 X2 - 0,000390 X3 + 0,048797 D1 + 0,051798D20,065329tk = (7,303129) (11,648224) (0,549361) (-3,639028) (1,661918) (1,689556)Se = (0,061648) (0,006559) (0,016068) (0,000107) (0,029362)(0,030657)R2 = 0,934631df = 5Fk = 68,629286 H s xc nh: R2 = 0,934631; nh vy, m hnh c lng gii thch c 93,46% bin ng ca gi phng tr. H s xc nh hiu chnh: R2 Tng s quan st l 30 Nhn xt: Vi cc yu t khc khng i, nu din tch tng (gim) ln 1 m2 th gi phng tr s tng (gim) thm 0,076397 triu ng. Vi cc yu t khc khng i, nu tng (gim) thm 1 ngi, gi phng tr tng (gim) thm 0,008827 triu ng. Vi cc yu t khc khng i, thi gian n trng tng (gim) thm 1 pht th gi phng tr gim (tng) thm 0,000390 triu ng. Vi cc yu t khc khng i, khi phng tr cho thu c mi bng s c gi cao hn phng tr nh cp bn l 0,048797 triu ng. Vi cc yu t khc khng i, phng tr c khu v sinh khp kn s c gi cao hn phng tr c khu v sinh chung l 0,051798 triu ng. Kim nh theo tham s thng k:Vi n - k - 1 = 30 - 5 - 1 = 24 = 0,05 ; /2 = 0,025 => tc (0.025, 24) = 2,492Ta c: Kim nh a: H0 a = 0 H1: a 0 = 7,303129 > tc (0.025, 24) = 2,492. Bc b H0; chp nhn H1. Nh vy, = 0,450226 c ngha thng k ti mc ngha = 0,05 ; tin cy 95%. Kim nh b1: H0: b1 = 0H1: b1 0 = 11,648224 > tc (0.025, 24) = 2,492 Bc b H0; chp nhn H1. Nh vy, h s = 0,076397 c ngha thng k ti mc ngha = 0,05 ; tin cy 95%. Kim nh b2: H0: b2 = 0 H1: b2 0 = 0,549361 < tc (0.025, 24) = 2,492 Bc b H1, chp nhn H0. Nh vy, h s = 0,008827 khng c ngha thng k ti mc ngha = 0,05 ; tin cy 95%. Kim nh b3: H0: b3 = 0 H1: b3 0 = 3,639027 > tc (0.025, 24) = 2,492 Bc b H0; chp nhn H1. Nh vy, h s = 3,639027 c ngha thng k ti mc ngha = 0,05 ; tin cy 95%. Kim nh b4: H0: b4= 0 H1: b4 0 = 1,661918 < tc (0.025, 24) = 2,492 Bc b H1, chp nhn H0. Nh vy, h s = 0,048797 khng c ngha thng k ti mc ngha = 0,05 ; tin cy 95%. Kim nh b5: H0: b5 = 0 H1: b5 0 = 1,689556 < tc (0.025, 24) = 2,492 Bc b H1, chp nhn H0. Nh vy, h s = 0,051798 khng c ngha thng k ti mc ngha = 0,05 ; tin cy 95%. T nhng phn tch m hnh v bng tng quan gia cc bin, nhm chng ti quyt nh loi cc bin khng c ngha thng k X2, D1, D2.M hnh c lng lc ny:Yi = a + b1 X1 + b3 X3 + uiChy li m hnh mi trn Excel 2010, c kt qu:SUMMARY OUTPUT



R Square0,912643103



Observations30

ANOVA


Regression21,4300630690,715031534141,0384575,09932E-15

Residual270,1368835980,005069763

Total291,566946667


Intercept0,4971898160,0628273697,9135864751,65751E-08

X1(mt 2)0,0795095970,00637458812,472899351,01961E-12

X3(mt)-0,0003748230,000114702-3,2678011250,002951188


0,3682787030,6261009280,3682787030,626100928

0,0664300220,0925891710,0664300220,092589171

-0,000610171-0,000139474-0,000610171-0,000139474

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

ObservationPredicted Yi (triu)Residuals

11,067392169-0,267392169

21,1048744380,095125562

31,2031251690,046874831

41,2451524970,054847503

51,343403228-0,043403228

61,324662093-0,024662093

71,347948287-0,007948287

81,3104660180,039533982

91,40417169-0,03417169

101,3899756140,010024386

111,4836812870,016318713

121,502422421-0,002422421

131,4836812870,016318713

141,521163556-0,021163556

151,525708615-0,005708615

161,5257086150,074291385

171,506967480,09303252

181,4882263460,071773654

191,5864770770,013522923

201,623959346-0,023959346

211,6239593460,026040654

221,6847278080,015272192

231,6659866740,034013326

241,708014001-0,008014001

251,74549627-0,04549627

261,750041329-0,030041329

271,84829206-0,09829206

281,792068657-0,042068657

291,7171041190,082895881

302,035142506-0,035142506

M hnh c lng mi: Y = 0,49719 + 0,07951 X1 0,00037 X3 uiTheo bng s liu, R2 = 0,91264, c ngha l 91,26% bin ng ca cc bin ph thuc gii thch qua m hnh. Ta c: k = 2, n k 1 = 27 , = 0,05; Fc (0.05, 2, 27) = 3,35 Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh: H0: R2 = 0 (M hnh khng ph hp) H1: R2 0 (M hnh ph hp)Ta c Fk = 141,038457 > Fc (0.05, 2, 27) = 3,35 Bc b H0, chp nhn H1. Nh vy, R2 = 0,91264 c ngha thng k tin cy 95%

Kim nh khuyt tt ca m hnh:1. Kim nh m hnh c hin tng a cng tuyn khng:Ta s kim tra xem din tch phng tr ( X1) c ph thuc vo thi gian i t phng tr ti trng (X3) khng kt lun.M hnh hi quy ph gia X1 v X3:X1 = 1 + 1 X3 + ui

Cho chy m hnh trn excel, thu c kt qu: SUMMARY OUTPUT



R Square0,642207334



Observations30

ANOVA


Regression1223,9376973223,937697350,257612991,03215E-07

Residual28124,76230274,455796525

Total29348,7

T bng trn, ta c: R2 = 0,642207, Fk = 50,2576 Ta c: k = 1, n - k - 1 = 30 - 2 = 28Fc (0.05 , 1, 28) = 4,20 Fk = 50,2576 > Fc (0.05 , 1, 28) = 4,20. Vy, m hnh c tn ti hin tng a cng tuyn. Bin php khc phc:Ta quyt nh loi b bin X1 hoc X3 khi m hnh Y = a + b1 X1 + b3 X3 + ui Loi b bin din tch phng tr X1, ta c m hnh mi: Y = a + b3 X3 + uiCho chy trn Excel, ta c kt qu:SUMMARY OUTPUT



R Square0,409295195



Observations30

ANOVA


Regression10,6413437420,64134374219,401002620,000140834

Residual280,9256029250,033057247

Total291,566946667


Intercept0,9862070570,125360437,8669725251,43714E-08

X3(mt)0,0007716810,0001751974,4046569250,000140834


0,7294178571,2429962560,7294178571,242996256

0,0004128070,0011305540,0004128070,001130554

Nh vy: R23 = 0,409295. M hnh mi Y = 0,98621 - 0,00077X3 + ui

Loi b bin X3 ta c m hnh hi quy mi:Y = a + b1 X1 + uiCho chy m hnh trn Excel, ta c kt qu: SUMMARY OUTPUT



R Square0,87809337



Observations30

ANOVA


Regression11,3759254831,375925483201,68398522,5416E-14

Residual280,1910211830,006822185

Total291,566946667


Intercept0,507326260,0727925336,9694821221,40741E-07

X1(mt 2)0,062816170,00442319214,201548692,5416E-14


0,3582175140,6564350,3582180,656435

0,0537556770,0718770,0537560,071877

Nh vy: R21 = 0.878093; M hnh hi quy mi: Y= 0,50733 + 0,06282X1 + ui So snh R23 v R21, ta thy: R23 = 0,409295 < R21 = 0.878093.Vy loi b bin X3 ra khi m hnh th s tt hn.Vy, sau khi cho chy m hnh v kim tra, ta c m hnh c lng v gi phng tr theo din tch phng: Y= 0,50733 + 0,06282X1 + ui Vy c 87,809% s thay i ca gi phng tr Y c gii thch bi din tch phng tr X1. Vi cc yu t khc khng i, nu din tch phng tr tng (gim) thm 1 m2 th gi phng tr tng (gim) thm 0,0628 triu ng.3. Gii php :Ngi cho thu kinh doanh nn cn ch hn v iu kin sinh hot ca phng tr, quan tm hn n thi sinh vin thu tr, c bit l thay i thi v nhu cu phng tr, c th: Nn xy dng phng khp kn, v tuy chi ph xy dng s cao hn nhng y l c s c mc gi thu tr cao hn. Phng tr nn c xy dng kin c c th s dng cho thu trong thi gian lu di, trnh phi tu sa qu nhiu v tn chi ph, nhng cng nn ch tu b gi mc gi cao nht. Nn xy dng khu v sinh ring cho tng phng tr, m bo s ring t, thoi mi cho sinh vin. Quan tm hn v iu kin sng hin ti ca sinh vin ang thu tr, tnh hnh an ninh trt t xung quanh khu vc cho thu.

IV. KT LUN

1. Kt lun:Vi m hnh ny, nhm xy dng c biu gi phng tr ca khu vc t dn ph o Nguyn, th trn Tru Qu, Gia Lm. Gi phng tr c xp hng theo mc t thp n cao, ph thuc vo cc tiu chun: din tch, s ngi , thi gian i b ti trng, iu kin v sinh c nhn, cht lng phng tr. Nhm hi vng rng vi ti ny s gip cho cc bn sinh vin phn no c th da vo thu c mt phng tr ng , hp l v gi c, trnh c s chn p t pha ch tr khi ln u i thu.2. Kin nghTrong qu trnh iu tra kho st dch v cho thu phng tr sinh vin bn con ng trn, chng ti nhn thy c nhiu vn cn tn ti. ngy cng nng cao cht lng cc phng tr, p ng c nhu cu ca sinh vin, ngi kinh doanh nn ch trng khc phc gii quyt; bn cnh , cn c s phi hp hnh ng ca cc cp chnh quyn. V vy, chng ti xin a ra mt s kin n nh sau: i vi chnh quyn a phng: Cn phi c nhng quy nh c th, cht ch v dch v cho thu nh tr sinh vin. y nhanh tin xy dng h thng h tng c s to iu kin cho lu thng v tham gia cc dch v cho thu phng tr sinh vin. Phi hp gia cc phng ban m bo mt mc gi chung, ph hp v gi phng, gi in nc. C trch nhim hn trong vic m bo an ninh cho khu vc c nhiu dy tr sinh vin. i vi ngi kinh doanh dch v cho thu phng tr sinh vin: Ch tr nn mnh dn u t nhng nh tr sinh vin c cht lng cao, p ng c nhu cu ca sinh vin. ng thi cng cn nng cao trch nhim i vi vic bo m an ton v ti sn, cuc sng cho sinh vin an tm thu tr lu di, thay i quan nim, thi i vi vic cho thu. i vi sinh vin: Nn cn nhc, la chn phng tr ph hp vi bn thn, p ng c nhu cu hc tp song cng m bo c cht lng, c trt t an ninh tt. Sng xa nh, mi trng xung quanh xa l nn sinh vin cn c thc t bo v mnh v ti sn c nhn. Sng c thc gi gn, bo v mi trng t nhin, mi trng xung quanh ti ni tr, khng gy mt trt t an ninh.

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