TIGGE and operational EPS

経田　正幸KYOUDA Masayuki

Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency

9th THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE Working Group meetingGeneva, WMO Headquarters

31 August – 2 September, 2011

Contents• Outline of JMA operational Ensemble Prediction

System (EPS)• Update of operational EPS

– JMA One-week EPS– JMA Typhoon EPS

• Distribution of operational EPS output– TIGGE– SWFDP

• WMO/CBS Lead Centre of EPS verification

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Outline of JMA Operational EPS

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JMA operational EPS

4More detailed information is available at the JMA part of the latest “WMO Technical Progress Report on GDPSF and NWP

Research” and the standardized EPS documentation in Excel spreadsheet format at http://tigge.ecmwf.int/models.html

You know the One-week EPS!!!

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Spaghetti diagrams viewing each EPS data of all TIGGE partners (Original image source : Mio-san’s TIGGE page http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/TIGGE/index.html)

• The EPS data delivery to TIGGE started in October 2006.

• Thanks to David-san, the specification is available at http://tigge.ecmwf.int/models.html .

You also know the Typhoon EPS!!!

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Ensemble TC tracks viewing each Cyclone XML file (Original image source : MRI of JMA page http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/cyclone/index.php)

Up to 216 hours updated only once a day

Up to 132 hours updated every 6 hours

Update of JMA Operational EPS

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Recent updates of JMA One-week EPS• Introduction of the stochastic perturbation of

physics tendency as a model ensemble technique in December 2010

Yonehara, H. and M. Ujiie, 2011: A Stochastic physics scheme for model uncertainties in the JMA one-week Ensemble Prediction System., CAS/JSC WGNE Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling., 41, Section 06, 09-10

– Representation of model uncertainties• Reduced amplitude of the initial perturbation (IP)

and IP expansion into the southern hemisphere in March 2011– Contribution to appropriate ensemble spread– Improvement of the forecast skill

You can trace its history with the standardized EPS documentation in Excel spreadsheet format at http://tigge.ecmwf.int/models.html .

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Impact of IP amplitude reducing

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Time evolution of the monthly average of ensemble-mean’s error (plotting symbol is filled circle: ●) and ensemble spread (circle: ○) for 500hPa geopotential height for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. -Left and right panels show January 2009 and September 2009, respectively. -CNTL(orange and red lines) and TEST(yellowgreen and green lines) are for the previous and current system, respectively.

Time evolution of the MAM-averaged ACC (anomaly correlation coefficient) of ensemble-mean for 500hPa geopotential height from 2003 to 2011 (Original image source : WMO/CBS Lead Centre on verification of EPS website) -Color of lines separates the verification period. -Top and bottom panels show the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere, respectively. -Left and right panels are based on JMA’s and ECMWF’s EPS verification reports, respectively.

ECMWF EPS

It is planned to extend the forecast range up to 17 days during the next computing

period.ECMWF EPS

JMA EPS

JMA EPS

ACC

ove

r NH

ACC

ove

r SH

Diagnosis of EPS improvement

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9 days 10 days, the 2011 ACC reaches 0.60

9 days, the 2011 ACC reaches 0.608 days

IP installed in March 2011

Comparison with past skill or another skill is helpful to review performance .

Recent updates of JMA Typhoon EPS

• Revisions of the singular vector (SV) method, a generator of initial perturbation, in May 2010– A group of SV spatial target areas around the central

positions of TC forecasts is set as circular region– in contrast to the previous rectangular-area setting.

– The amplitude of the perturbation is normalized using the moist total energy value

– in contrast to the previous normalization using the maximum meridional or zonal wind speed.

• Introduction of the stochastic perturbation of physics tendency as a model ensemble technique in December 2010– A near-neutral impact in the TC track forecast

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Distribution of Operational EPS Output

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JMA EPS data to TIGGE

Incorrect value

Correct value• Incorrect ‘Land-sea mask’ values

– Although the land-sea mask in JMA EPS has not changed, an error in output processing resulted in only incorrect ‘land-sea mask’ data from 16 December 2010 to 28 March 2011.

– Putting the announcement on both “News” of TIGGE site @ECMWF and “tiggeusers” mailing list in February 2011

• There is no inquiry for its announcement.

• Distribution scheme– still old type … http-get by ECMWF

• New data distribution– ECMWF started adding on 3rd August 2011 to

the TIGGE database• You can check it at

http://tigge.ecmwf.int/tigge/d/tigge_history/.

– Providing analysis (T+0) field initialized at 00UTC• Following Action 8.6.1 of 8th GIFS TIGGE WG meeting report

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SWFDP in SOUTHEAST ASIA• Participating Centres

– Global Centres : CMA, JMA, KMA, and ECMWF– Regional Centres : Viet Nam (Regional Forecast Support Centre), RSMC

Tokyo, RSMC New Delhi (tropical cyclone forecasting support), and HKO (training and technical support)

– NMCs : Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., Thailand, and Viet Nam

14The red-colored rectangle is the target domain for SWFDP-SeA.

• Field phase– Period : One-year period from

2012 to 2013– Target Severe Weather

– Tropical cyclone both from the South China Sea and from the Bay of Bengal

– Heavy rain

JMA webpage for WMO/CBS SWFDP

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• URL: http://ddb.kishou.go.jp/swfdp/

• Three-type products, including EPS product, for RA V are now available.• Deterministic

Forecast from Global Model

• Probabilistic Forecast from Global medium-range EPS

• MTSAT Product• Plan

• Providing the similar products for SWFDP-SeA.

WMO/CBS Lead Centre on Verification of EPS

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Lead Centre on Verification of EPS• The Japan Meteorological Agency, as the Lead Centre on

Verification of EPS, promotes both exchanging of EPS verification reports and presenting skill of EPS.

• JMA has been operating two Internet sites since January 2004.– FTP site ( ftp://ftpepsv.kishou.go.jp ) for the EPS producing

centres to upload for gathering the statistic data of their EPS verification

– Web site ( http://epsv.kishou.go.jp/EPSv/ ) for the NMHSs of WMO Members to view EPS verification reports for a better use of EPS products.

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Exchange of EPS verification reports

- current status -

Internet

FTP site(password protected)

CMA

CMC

CPTEC

ECMWF

JMA

KMA

Lead Centre (JMA)

Publishing

Web sitehttp://epsv.kishou.go.jp/EPSv/

NMHSsofWMOMembers

Access to the EPS verification reports

Monthly upload

RUMS

UKMO

BOM

MF

(as of Aug. 2011)

Registered centres

NCEP

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Access to EPS verification reports

To Click a link “*** tables”

leads to get any EPS verification

reports.

To Click a centre name leads to display figures visualized from its EPS reports.

To Click the link “Reported status”

leads to see the list of all reported

elements.

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Exchange scheme• Original verification statistics

– are replicated at the Web site and available to confirm at least in a day after the registered centre puts it on the FTP site

• Web site– Shows the original verification statistics, their update

information, and their visualized figures– Makes it possible to diagnose the skill of EPS of each

EPS producing centre through comparison with those of other EPSs

– Contributes to improvement of the performance of each EPS.

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Availability

• The number of verification reports remains limited– JMA’s plan

• Start reporting new table, CRPS table, in the next few months

– CMA’s plan• Start reporting its reliability table by the end of 2011

– RUMS’s plan• Start reporting other variables and tables by November 2011

– BOM, CMC, MF, NCEP and UKMO• Be expected to submit their reports as soon as possible

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Thank you for your kind attention.

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