tnc 2004, rhodes lajos bálint, hungarnet/niif 1 projecting past into the future lajos bÁlint...

TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF

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Projecting Past into the Future

Lajos BÁLINT

HUNGARNET / NIIF

[email protected]

TERENA Networking Conference,

Rhodes, 7-9 June 2004


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Introductory remarks

A promising title – don’t be disappointed

Title is selected by Session organisers (Jorge, Stelios) accepted by author - in relation to the SEE region

Do you consider it an easy topic?I did … but …

(technology, operation, management,...: much easier!)

What to talk about? (“boundary conditions”)Conference: One step ahead (evolution vs.status)Session: Networking Prospects in SEEContribution: Projecting Past into the Future


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Contents

• Background

• Overall objective

• Goals of the presentation

• Difficulties

• The past

• The future

• How to get there?

• A possible model

• Alternative options

• Potential results

• Tasks for all

• Questions

• Conclusions


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BackgroundSEEREN• Digital divide - considerable gaps• Emerging infrastructures• International connectivity• Preliminary actions• A model project• EC support• Support from partner NRENs

The results:• A giant starting leap• Greatly improved connectivity• Breakthrough in awareness• Entering the European network• Gaps not yet eliminated

The question marks:• Sustainability• The next steps• How to handle the gaps


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Overall objectiveFacing the digital divide – looking for solution

A multifaceted problem• Technical shortcomings• Financial problems• Expertise needs• Organisational issues• Legal-commercial environment

Far reaching influence• Education• Research• Innovation• Competitiveness• Cooperativeness• IT proliferation + IS evolution• Wide social-economical effects

Perspectives for less developed NRENs:• To be investigated• To be improved


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This presentationGoal of the contribution:• Analysis (presentation)• Evaluation (discussion) Model (suggestion) Method (proposal)

Approach: Look for CEE-REN analogy

Forecast: Projecting CEE-REN past into SEEREN future

Intention: Find a recipe of sustainability and coming abreast

Objective of the contribution:• properly addressed messages

– encouraging developing NRENs– urging developed NRENs

• convincing outlook


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The difficulties

Non-technical problems --- Non-technical solutions

Non-technical questions) --- Non-technical answers

Digital divide:• Geographical (macro - micro)• Disciplinary (access - aptitude)

Typical issues: repeating themselves in space and time ...

SEE is just an example! (Today!)


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Outlines of a model

NREN groups: G1 - G2 - ... - GNcharacterised by average Si measure of performance

Digital divide: gaps between groups Gi and Gi-1

Si(t) < Si-1 (t)

National development: gaps decreasing (Gi approaches Gi-1)

Si (t+t) - Si-1 (t+t) < Si (t) - Si-1 (t)

Fragmentation: N ~ 4 ?


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Examples

Examples in case of N = 4:SEE NRENs: ~ G3CEE NRENs: ~ G2(WE NRENs: ~ G1)(KCA NRENs: ~ G4)

[European scene under consideration][i > 4 not investigated here][Some special cases also not considered]

International co-operation: subsidiarity + solidarity

Support of development: by Gk to Gi (normally i > k)

Does this 0-level model work?


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About the past (averages)

CEE NRENs in early 90s:2 orders of magnitude behind WE NRENs

CEE NREN development from mid-90s to early 2000s:• Organisational structure• National coverage• Integrated resources• Uniform policy• Joint lobbying• Internal development• International co-operation• Multinational projects• EC support• TERENA, DANTE, consortia• Gradual development


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About the past (cont’d)

CEE NREN position in mid-2000s:• Gap mostly disappeared• Equivalent opportunities• Advanced infrastructure• High standard of services• Up-to-date applications• Elevated expertise• Prepared user community• Demanding attitude• Wide cooperativeness


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About the future (averages)

SEE NRENs in early 2000s:2 orders of magnitude behind CEE NRENs

An optimistic forecast:

SEE NREN development from mid-2000s to early 2010s:• Organisational structure• National coverage• Integrated resources• Uniform policy• Joint lobbying• Internal development• International co-operation• Multinational projects• EC support• TERENA, DANTE, consortia• Gradual development


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About the future (cont’d)

SEE NREN position in mid-2010s (optimistic projection):• Gap mostly disappeared• Equivalent opportunities• Advanced infrastructure• High standard of services• Up-to-date applications• Elevated expertise• Prepared user community• Demanding attitude• Wide cooperativeness

Key external + internal issues:• Overall awareness (government, industry, …)• Telecom market liberalisation• Inclusiveness (coverage of user community)• Leading edge (locally)• Partnership (globally)


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What to do?

How to get there – what to do?[Don’t forget: 10 years is very short a period of time! But in 10 years SEE may also be part of the EU!]

Needed:• NREN devotedness and enthusiasm• Immense integrated efforts• Internal (moral + financial) support• International co-operation (foreign help)• Patient gradual progress• Step by step elimination of digital divide

CEE NRENs didn’t exactly copy WE NRENs

SEE NRENs shouldn’t exactly copy CEE NRENs


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Promising perspectives

Some promising elements in development:• better conditions for fast progress (organisational/political)• slow-down in the developed NRENs (saturation effects)• good examples to follow (start with novel approaches)• well known traps to avoid (IXI, ATM, … procurement …)• international co-operation (established frameworks)• EC support (better than ever)

Clever development / wise support:Good model needed

(although no good general model!)(what is common, what is different?)

Another giant step ahead:

Gi (t) Gi (t+t) [Gi (t+t) ~ Gi-1(t)]


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A possible model

(Model to be further elaborated)

Aggregate measures needed(to characterise level of development)

Let the measure (status of the NRENs) be: S (t)

Normalised parameters (pj, j = 1…P) to be involved in the measure:

• p1 Users (users / population)• p2 Infrastructure (access capacity / users)• p3 Traffic (total traffic / users)• p4 Finances (NREN budget / users)

(and some more)

Measure: norm, eg. S ~ π(pj) or S ~ (pj2)

Model: Gi ~ M [Si (t)], i = 1…N

(NRENs and/or groups of NRENs comparable)


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Progress / catch up

Progress: Si (t+t) > Si (t)

Catch up: Si (t+t) - Si (t) > Si-1 (t+t) - Si-1 (t)

Alternative catch up options:

• Slow Si (t+t) < Si-1 (t)

• Medium Si-1 (t) < Si (t+t) < Si-1 (t+t)

• Fast Si (t+t) > Si-1 (t+t)(Gi to Gi-1 gap eliminated)

Basic question: t = ?

Continuous follow-up needed:Progress, speed of catch up to be investigatedConditions to be analysed, further steps to be planned


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Foreseeable results

Supposed progress for t ≈ 10 years:G3 to G2 gap almost disappears!

Potential positive outcome:R&E competitiveness + cooperativeness

(stability on NREN level)Country-level economic development

(stability on national level)Improved international relations

(stability on regional level)

Pre-condition of a positive outcome:

Joint interests joint efforts needed


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Tasks for all of us (but major role of NRENs)

Supportive political and legal environment• Political/moral support on behalf of European/international

organisations• Stable, conflict-free political situation in the country• Awareness of the importance of R&E networking on behalf of the

government• Political/moral support to the NREN community on behalf of the

government• Appropriate legal environment for NREN operation and services• Preferable customs regulations and taxation rules/conditions• Liberalisation, as early as possible, of the telecommunication market

Enabling technical and infrastructural background• Availability of affordable networking equipment• Availability of reasonably priced background (telecom) infrastructure• Scalability of the NREN infrastructure (allowing smooth gradual

upgrades)


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Tasks for all of us(cont’d)

Availability of financial resources• Annually increasing local governmental funding (preferably close to 100 %)• Availability of additional sources of funding (internal/external)

Stable NREN organisation and operation• Stable and harmonious country-wide co-operation in research networking• Well-defined powers and responsibilities, clear decision making mechanisms• Politically independent NREN operation• Top-down management + bottom-up representation of user interests• Clear, GEANT-conform, consistently applied AUP

Availability of technical expertise within the NREN• Expertise for developing/operating the network infrastructure• Reproducible development/management/technical/administrative staff• Organisational and technical support on behalf of the European NRENs• Demanding user community (exploiting the benefits of the infrastructure)• Continuous feed-back of the user experiences to the developing/operating staff

SERENATE Report: excellent source of information/advices!(NRENs, R&E institutions, politicians/governments, regulators, operators, EC)


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To be discussed

Statements (asking for agreement or disagreement):

• conditions• saturation in developed NRENs• good examples (CEE …)• known traps• co-operation• support• sustainability aspects• chances of closing up• what to do, how to help


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Conclusions

• Good chances• Joint efforts needed• Joint benefits foreseeable

tnc 2004, rhodes lajos bálint, hungarnet/niif 1 projecting past into the future lajos bÁlint...

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