M. Maki1, R. Misumi1, T. Nakatani1, S. Suzuki1, T. Kobayashi2, Y. Yamada2,

A. Adachi2, I. Nakamura3, M. Ishihara8, and TOMACS members*

* T. Maesaka1, A. Kato1, T. Kayahara1, S. Shimizu1, T.Wakatsuki1, Y. Shusse1, K. Hirano1, K. Iwanami1, N.Sakurai1, D.-S. Kim1, O. Suzuki2, Y. Shoji2, K. Kusunoki2,

” Social System Reformation Program for Adaption to Climate Change”Strategic Funds for the Promotion of Science and Technology (JST/MEXT)

Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Studies Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Studies Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Studies Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Studies

for Extreme for Extreme for Extreme for Extreme Weather Resilient Weather Resilient Weather Resilient Weather Resilient Cities (TOMACS) Cities (TOMACS) Cities (TOMACS) Cities (TOMACS)

Sakurai1, D.-S. Kim1, O. Suzuki2, Y. Shoji2, K. Kusunoki2,H. Yamauchi2, N. Seino2, H. Seko2, E. Sato2, H. Inoue2,C. Fujiwara2, S. Saito2, N. Nagumo2, T. Kawabata2, S.Origuchi2, F. Fujibe2, S. Tsuchiya4, A. Yamaji5, M. Yasui6,Y. Fujiyoshi7, Y. Suzuki8, T. Ushio9, K. Sunada10, T.Yamada11, H. Nakamori12, F. Kobayashi13, H.Sugawara13, H. Yokoyama14, H. Hirakuchi15, T. Sato16, M.Yoshii16, A. Togari17, D. Tsuji18, K. Otsuka19, T. Murano20,D.-I. Lee21, V. Chandrasekar22

1NIED, 2MRI, 3Toyo University, 4NILIM, 5JWA, 6NICT ,7HokkaidoUniv., 8DPRI/Kyoto Univ. 9Osaka Univ., 10Univ. of Yamanashi,11Chuo Univ., 12Nihon Univ., 13National Defense Academy,14TMRIEP, 15CRIEPI, 16Tokyo Fire Dep., 17JR-EAST, 18JR-CENTRAL, 19Obayashi Co., 20Toshiba Co., 21PKNU, 22CSU

Related presentationMaesaka 26QPESuzuki 139CRUshio 141CRYamauchi 201SPKim 238NETKusunoki 269RCS 270RCS

http://www.mpsep.jp/ZENTAI/Brochure/TOMACS_E-J.pdf

BACKGROUND

� Large cities are inherently vulnerable to torrential rainfall.� the number of occurrence of torrential rainfall tends to

increase in these thirty years (JMA, 2010).

” Social System Reformation Program for Adaption to Climate Change”Strategic Funds for the Promotion of Science and Technology (JST/MEXT)

Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Studies Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Studies Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Studies Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Studies

for Extreme for Extreme for Extreme for Extreme Weather Resilient Weather Resilient Weather Resilient Weather Resilient Cities (TOMACS) Cities (TOMACS) Cities (TOMACS) Cities (TOMACS)

increase in these thirty years (JMA, 2010).

AIM� To understand the mechanisms of localized convective

storms and related extreme weather.� To improve an early detection and prediction algorithm of

extreme weather in collaboration with end users.� To put the method into practical use through social

experiments.

PARTICIPANTS

� Core research institutes:� Natl. Res. Inst. for Earth Sci. and Disast. Prevention (NIED)

� Meteorol. Res. Inst. (MRI)

� Toyo University

� More than 100 participants

� Collaboration with 25 organizations:� Collaboration with 25 organizations:

� 16 Research Institutes and UniversitiesNILIM, JWA, NICT, ENRI, TMRI, CRIEP,Hokkaido Univ., DPRI/Kyoto Univ., Osaka Univ., Yamanashi Univ.,Nagasaki Univ., Chuo Univ., Nihon Univ., NDA, PKNU, CSU

� 5 Local GovernmentsTokyo Fire Department, Yokohama City, Fujisawa City,Edogawa-Ku/Tokyo, Minami-Ashigara City,

� 4 Private Companies

JR-EAST, JR-CENTRAL, Obayashi Co., Toshiba Co.

RESEARCH THEMES

Theme 1： Studies on Extreme Weather with Dense Meteorological Observations

【Meteorology】

To obtain new insight on mechanisms of extreme weather

(1) Development of new technologies

(2) Field campaign in the Tokyo area (3) Statistical analysis

To understand mechanism of extreme weatherTargeting Deep Convections Causing Local Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flood in Urban Areas

Many types of deep convection aregenerated in the warm season in the TokyoMetropolitan area which is located in themaritime continent.

3

Theme 3： Social Experiments on Extreme Weather Resilient Cities

Theme 2: Development of Extreme Weather Early Detection & Prediction System

【Engineering】

Developments collaborating with end users

(1) Extreme weather nowcasting methods

(2) Development of test-beds of nowcasting systems

(3) Extreme weather database

【Sociology】

Evaluation and adaption the developed nowcasting system

(1)Social experiments in rescue services, risk management, infrastructure and education

(2)Recommendations for extreme weather resilient cities

To issue more accurate and adequate warning

NowcastingHazard Map

Monitoring/Nowcasting System

To evaluate and adapt the developed systems

Field campaign in the Tokyo Metropolitan area

Understanding the mechanismNew observation

facilities

Theme 1: Studies on Extreme Weather with Dense Meteorological Observations

【New insights for the mechanism of extreme weather】

(1) Development of new technologies（MRI, NICT, Osaka Univ., Toshiba Co.)

(2) Field campaign in the Tokyo area（MRI, Hokkaido Univ., NICT, NIED, NDA, Yamanashi Univ., Chuo Univ., CRIEP, JWA）

(3) Statistical analysis （MRI）

Social Experiments Strategy Committee/Cabinet Office

RepresentativePrincipal investigator

Steering Committee

・Evaluations on research plan

・Progress review・Recommendation to

the Cabinet Office

Liaison Council

・Periodical meeting with all participants

・Observation WG・Nowcasting WG・Social experiment WG

Project Structure and Organizations

Theme 3: Social Experiments on Extreme Weather Resilient Cities

MPSEP outputs

Demand on System

Theme 2: Development of Extreme Weather Early Detection & Prediction System

【Collaborative developments with end users】

(1) Extreme weather nowcasting and forecasting （NIED・MRI・NILIM）

(2) Monitoring and Prediction System of Extreme Weather (MPSEP)

（NIED・JWA・Kyoto Univ.）

(3) Extreme weather data base (NIED）

(3) Statistical analysis （MRI）

Real time obs. data Demand on data

Scientific Interest

Enlightenment of science technologies

【Evaluation and adaptation of MPSEP】

(1) Social experiments in four fields(NIED, Toyo Univ., TMRIEP)① Rescue service (Tokyo Fire Dept.)② Risk managements (Local governments)③ Infrastructure (JR East, JR Central, Obayashi)④ Education (High school)

(2) Analysis of experiments (Toyo, Nihon Univ.)

Observations of convective precipitations with a densemeteorological instruments are planned by MRI, NIED and 12research groups in the summers of 2011-2013 in the TokyoMetropolitan Area.

KuKuKuKu----band Fast Scan MP band Fast Scan MP band Fast Scan MP band Fast Scan MP RadarRadarRadarRadar

2DVD Radar 2DVD Radar 2DVD Radar 2DVD Radar Calibration Calibration Calibration Calibration

MRI CMRI CMRI CMRI C----band band band band SolidSolidSolidSolid----state MP state MP state MP state MP RadarRadarRadarRadar

MTSAT MTSAT MTSAT MTSAT Rapid ScanRapid ScanRapid ScanRapid Scan

Theme 1：：：： Studies on Extreme Weather with Dense Meteorological Observations

5

Microwave Microwave Microwave Microwave radiometersradiometersradiometersradiometers

Doppler LidarsDoppler LidarsDoppler LidarsDoppler Lidars

JMA Lightning JMA Lightning JMA Lightning JMA Lightning Detection SystemsDetection SystemsDetection SystemsDetection Systems

JMA Operation JMA Operation JMA Operation JMA Operation Doppler RadarsDoppler RadarsDoppler RadarsDoppler Radars

RadiosondeRadiosondeRadiosondeRadiosonde

Calibration Calibration Calibration Calibration sitesitesitesite

GPS ReceiversGPS ReceiversGPS ReceiversGPS Receivers

UAV ObservationUAV ObservationUAV ObservationUAV Observation

Dense Surface Dense Surface Dense Surface Dense Surface NetworkNetworkNetworkNetwork

Ｘ－ＮＥＴＸ－ＮＥＴＸ－ＮＥＴＸ－ＮＥＴ(NIEDS and cooperative org.)(NIEDS and cooperative org.)(NIEDS and cooperative org.)(NIEDS and cooperative org.)

Humid Warm AirHumid Warm AirHumid Warm AirHumid Warm Air Relatively Cool Relatively Cool Relatively Cool Relatively Cool AirAirAirAir

Wind ProfilersWind ProfilersWind ProfilersWind Profilers

ScintillatioScintillatioScintillatioScintillation Metern Metern Metern Meter

Target Meteorological parameterInstrument

Research Operational

Environment

Troposphere

Temp., water vapor, wind

Radiosonde

Microwave radiometers

Radiosonde

GPS network (GEONET)

UHF Wind profilers

Boundary layer

Temp., water vapor, wind

UAV

Doppler Lidar

Radiosonde, UHF wind profiler

AMeDAS

Surface

Temp., wind, rain, Td, P High spatiotemporal surface meteorological network

AMeDAS

AEROS

Non-precipitation

Cumulus (VIS, IR)Web cameras JMA MTSAT (rapid scan

imager)

Table 1 Meteorological facilities used in TOMACS（http://www.mpsep.jp/ZENTAI/Brochure/TOMACS_E-J.pdf）

Thunderstorm

Cumulus (VIS, IR)

3D, High spatiotemporal

Precipitation distributionKu-band fast scan radar －

3D field

Precipitation and wind

Polarimetric parameter

Ｘ-NET （X-band polarimetric)

C-band polarimetric radar

MLIT X-band polarimetric radar

JMA C-band Doppler radar

Vertical profile

Drop size distributionMicro rain radar －

Surface

Drop size distribution

Rainfall amount

Disdrometer (2DVD, optical)

AWS

Raingauge network

(AMeDAS, MLIT, local gov)

Lightning － JMA LIDEN

Early detection

（~5 minute）

雨粒

Use of VIL (NIED)

Precipitation core tracking (NIED)

Use of “rapid scan” of MTSAT (JMA, MRI)

Nowcasting of strong wind (Kyoto Univ., NIED, JWA)

Theme 2: Development of Extreme Weather Early Detection & Prediction System

Nowcasting

（~1 hour）

Data assimilation

and numerical forecast

（~6 hours）

(JMA, MRI)(Kyoto Univ., NIED, JWA)

Assimilation of TOMACS data (MRI, NIED)

Improvement of numerical forecast (MRI,

NIED)

Monitoring and Prediction System(NIED, JWA, NILIM, ENRI)

End users

+Edogawa/Tokyo +Yokohama

+Tokyo Fire Department

② River Managements

① Emergency deployments

Improvement of Forecast Techniques

(MRI,NIED,JMA,JWA, Kyoto Univ.)

Theme 3: Social Experiments for Extreme Weather Resilient Cities

+High school+CAMJ

+JR-East+JR-Central+Obayashi

+Yokohama +Fujisawa et.al.

④Education& General

Managements

③Infrastructure

Database of Extreme Phenomena

(NIED)

Target area of TOMACSis the Tokyo metropolitanarea which is defined anarea within a 50kmradius of the TokyoMetropolitan Gov. Office.

There are five mega

Test bed of TOMACS

There are five megacities shown by redcircles. (Number showspopulation in million)

About 30 million peoplelive in the area, whichcorresponds to thepopulation of Canada.

Research Polarimetric (X-band)Operational Polarimetric (X-band)

Research Doppler (X-band)Operational Doppler (C-band)

MKA

HNY

ABK

Metropolitan Area

STM

Research Polarimetric (X-band)Operational Polarimetric (X-band)Research Doppler (X-band)Operational Doppler (C-band)

MRI_C

Research Radars

Radar Network used in TOMACS

Figure shows the locations of

research radars of X-NET and MLIT

operational radars; ten X-band

polarimetric radars and four

Doppler radars are used. Almost

all radar data are sent to NIED and

processed in real time .

10

FJM

SZKKNK Synthetic Doppler radar

analysis area0 50 100km

EBN KSR

BNK

YKS

ABK

YKH

STM

KFUKSW

FJM

SZKKNK

MRI_Ku

Research Radars� C-band polarization radar (1)� X-NET (8)� Ka-band Doppler (1, not shown)� Ku-band rapid scan radar (1)� Doppler Lidar (2, not shown)

Operational Radars� MLIT X-band pol (5)� JMA C-band Doppler (1)� Doppler lidar (1, not shown)

Data level DescriptionFormat

(Coordinate)Example

LEVEL 0 Raw radar datasystem

dependent (usually polar)

T, Z, V, W (for conv. radar)ZDR, ρhv, ΦDP, KDP (for pol. Radar)

LEVEL 1 Raw radar data NetCDF (polar) ditto

LEVEL 1.5 Raw radar data after quality controlNetCDF

(geographic)ditto

LEVEL 22p Two dimensional “basic” precipi. parameters ditto R, M, (u, v, w)

2v Three dimensional “basic” precip. parameters ditto ditto

Table 2 Data level of the X-NET products（http://www.mpsep.jp/ZENTAI/Brochure/TOMACS_E-J.pdf）

LEVEL 3

3p Two dimensional “analysis” precip. parameters dittoAR, CR, ER, VIL, HT, DSD,(u, v)a

3v Three dimensional “analysis” precip. parameters ditto HT, DSD, (u, v, w)a

LEVEL 4

4p Two dimensional “nowcast” precip. parameters ditto R, M, AR, CR, ER, VIL, SW

4v Three dimensional “nowcast” precip. paramaeters ditto R, M, (u, v, w),

SUPLLIMENTAL

CReSS Outputs from Cloud Resolving Storm Simulator ditto Meteorological parameters

JMA Operational weather information from JMA dittoRadar, Objective Analysis, MSN outputs

R: rain rate, M: rain water content, (u, v, w): wind vector, (u, v, w)a: assimilated wind vector, AR: areal rainfallCR: cumulative rainfall, ER: effective rainfall, VIL: vertically integrated liquid water, HT: hydrometeor typeDSD: drop size distribution, SW: strong wind area

Example of X-NET Level 2 Products

An Example of the level 2 products of X-NET. Time change of rainfall andwind distribution at the height of 1km when a cold front passed over theKanto region on 10 May, 2012. Spatiotemporal resolution is 500m, 5 min(will be 250m, 1 min in 2013).

Composite Map of Rain with Wind Wind with Song Wind Area

12

Composite map of X-band dual polarization

radar networkLevel 2 QPE

Level 3 QPE

Level 2 data is not enough

because

1) Signal extinction area cannot

cover X-band radar networks if

the number of radar is limited.

2) More larger area is necessary

for QPF

In such case, one of the solution

is composition with conventional

C-band radar.

Composite rainfall map of X-NET and

operational C-band radar rainfallDynamical adjustment

Rain water content

Example of Level 3 product

Rain rate

Accumulated rainfall

Large accumulated rainfallKim et al (2012)

Social Experiment on Emergency Deployments

16:02• Thunderstorm advisory• Start watching X-NET products

16:49

The headquarter of TFD successfully issue the provision of

levee protection at relevant stations in Tama region, Tokyo

about 50 minutes before the warning issued by JMA.

The Tokyo Fire Department (TFD) examines X-NET informationfor prompt floodpreparedness, emergency deployments of firemen, and efficient and safety rescueactivities.

Rainfall and wind distributions in Tama region in Tokyo at 17:40 JST, July 5,2011. Rectangle and triangle show locations of branch and sub-branch stations,respectively.

16:49• Heavy rainfall of 50～70mm/h at

NW of Tama area• Warning at relevant fire stations

16:50～17:10

• Issuance of levee protection at relevant stations

17:40• A heavy rain and flood warning in

Tama area (JMA)

• Warning for rapid increase of water level

• Warning lamp and anouncement• Automated operation

JMAJMAJMAJMAJMAJMAJMAJMA

………………………………

WatchingWarning

Alarm rainfall

Yokohama City examines QPE and QPF for improvements of the flash flood warning system in urban water parks.

Social Experiment on River Managements

[Present System]

Six children were killed by suddenincrease of river water (Toga river,Kobe, July 28, 2008)

after 10 minutes

Information Lead time EvaluationRaingaugel (on site)

No lead time for evacuation ×

Raingauge (near site)

Some lead time if there is enough number of raingauges near the site

○

River level (on site)

No lead time for evacuation ×

River level (upstream)

Insufficient lead time due to short river channel

×

Info. from JMA

60 minute lead time for nowcast(accuracy ?)

Accuracy or delay of warning

○

XXXX----NETNETNETNET productsproductsproductsproducts 5555----15min with high accuracy15min with high accuracy15min with high accuracy15min with high accuracyunder under under under

examinationexaminationexaminationexamination

Yokohama city set up and operate 21 warning systems at 18 river parks.

[Future System]

Add X-NET products to the present system

・rainfall amount I watershed

・QPE and QPF

X-NET data analysis room

Obayashi Corporation examines X-NET wind nowcastfor safety management at high construction sites.

Nowcast of strong winds

Social Experiment on Infrastructures

Tokyo Sky Tree (634m)Damaged crane

17

Tokyo Sky Tree (634m)Damaged crane

East Japan Railway Company and CentralJapan Railway Company examine X-NETQPE and QPF information for their computer-assisted traffic control system.

Shinkansen, JR-EASTTransport operation control system72 hour effective rain

Tokyo Metropolitan Research Institute for EnvironmentalProtection set up surface meteorological instruments and X-NETmonitor displays in several metropolitan high schools forscience education and students safe managements.

CAMJ examines the accuracy and efficiency of TOMACSinformation for general people.

Social Experiment on Educations

(JMA)

18

How to measure weather ?

What is convection ?

What is weather radar?

Weathereradar Effectiveness of TOMAC QPFMeasurements of atmosphere

SUMMARYSUMMARY

(1) TOMACS� Target: Extreme weather� Provision of high resolution rainfall and wind data� Organization: 25 institutes 100 participants� Interactive research activities with end-users

(2) Observations(2) Observations� Tokyo metropolitan area� Dense meteorological instruments� 2012-14: Full-scale observations with social experiments

(3) Proposal to RDP/WWR/WMO� Nine countries, 19 foreign scientists mainly for nowcasting

and numerical forecasting in urban area will participate.

Thank you.

Any question?

20

Any question?

Any suggestion for social experiments?