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Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development Aging, Structural Change, Sustainability2016/11/18 Mamoru Taniguchi Professor, University of Tsukuba 1

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Page 1: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

Tokyo Past, Now and Future:Transportation and Development~Aging, Structural Change, Sustainability~

2016/11/18

Mamoru Taniguchi

Professor, University of Tsukuba

1

Page 2: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

Mamoru Taniguchi, Dr. Eng.

Chair of Department of Policy and Planning Sciences

International Federation for Housing and Planning (Previous Council Member)

In Japan, Member of

National Land Council

Council for Transport Policy

National Council for Infrastructure

Central Environment Council

2

Page 3: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

Population density of Tokyo metropolitan area (1970)

0- 10001000- 20002000- 30003000- 40004000-

Unit:People/km2

3

Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)

Page 4: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

4Population density of Tokyo metropolitan area (2010)

Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)

0- 10001000- 20002000- 30003000- 40004000-

Unit:People/km2

Page 5: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

5

Page 6: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

首都圏における市街地の拡大

1937年 1947年 1957年1880年 1910年 1932年

1976年 2006年出典:新谷洋二,都市交通計画,技法堂出版,1993 (1880年から1957年の図)

国土数値情報ダウンロードサービスhttp://nlftp.mlit.go.jp/ksj/index.html より作成(1976年から2006年の図)

市街地

Page 7: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

7Urban Area :Sprawl Tokyo suburb (1956)

Page 8: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

8Urban Area: Sprawl

Tokyo suburb (1991)

Page 9: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

9

Late development areas after 1985, that locate far from

train stations cause serious problems in near future.

How to explain citizens? → ‘Inferno Cartton’

Page 10: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

典型的郊外住宅地

• 六地蔵

• 那古の

10

Page 11: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

11Population estimation of Tokyo metropolitan area

TMA/Japan

Tokyo/TMA

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Population[Million]

Chiba

Saitama

Kanagawa

Tokyo

TMA/Japan

Tokyo/TMA

TMA/Japan[%]Tokyo/TMA[%]

Source: Mohri, Morio (2014) and National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

Page 12: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

Population Desity 2010

Page 13: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

Increase of Population

Desity 2000~2010

Page 14: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

Railway network of Tokyo metropolitan area (1960)

14

Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)

Page 15: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

15Railway network of Tokyo metropolitan area (2010)

Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)

Page 16: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

City Name TsukubaTozuka Ward(Yokohama)

Tama Mishima

Population1960 52,568 113,514 9,746 64,9712010 214,590 274,324 147,648 111,921Ratio 4.11 2.42 15.15 1.72

Main Station1960 Tsukuba Sta. Tozuka Sta. Seiseki Sakuragaoka Sta. Mishima Sta.2010 Tsukuba Sta. Tozuka Sta. Keio Tama Center Sta. Mishima Sta.

Route

1960

1. Tsukuba~Tsuchiura(Tsukuba Line)

2. Tsuchiura ~ Ueno(Joban Line)

3. Ueno ~ Tokyo(Yamanote Line/Kehin Tohoku Line)

Tozuka ~ Tokyo(Yokosuka Line)

1.Seiseki Sakuragaoka~ Shinjuku

2. Shinjuku ~ Tokyo(Chuo Line)

Mishima ~ Tokyo

(Tokaido Line)

2010

1. Tsukuba~Akihabara(Tsukuba Express)

2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo(Yamanote Line/Kehin Tohoku Line)

Tozuka ~ Tokyo(Tokaido Line/Yokosuka Line/

Soubu Line)

1. Keio Tama Center~ Shinjuku

(Keio Sagamihara Line)2. Shinjuku ~ Tokyo

(Chuo Line)

Mishima~Tokyo(TokaidoShinkansen)

Required Time to Tokyo Sta.

(min)

1960 168 44 75 1112010 62 41 58 55Ratio 0.37 0.93 0.77 0.50

Frequency of Service

(/3h)

1960 4 14 9 62010 17 57 20 12Ratio 4.25 4.07 2.22 2.00

Improvement of railway services 16Source: Mohri et al.(2014)

Page 17: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

48

30

12

12

3

22

15

10

21

14

32

23

15

30

39

21

12

23

40

33

20

11

6

4

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Tokyo

Seoul

GreaterLondon

New York

Beijing

Train Bus Bicycle Walk Car Others[%]

Mode of transportation in world cities 17

Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism(2013)

Page 18: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

Transportation share of trips in Tokyo metropolitan area

24,8

22,8

25,1

25,5

29,7

17,0

24,4

27,5

32,9

28,0

5,7

12,9

14,8

14,6

14,1

43,1

33,9

27,0

22,5

21,5

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

1968

1978

1988

1998

2008

Train Bus Car Motorcycle Bicycle Walk Others

(%)

18

Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)

Page 19: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

19

Tokyo.Met. Nagoya.Met. Osaka.Met.

Change of Commuting Minutes (Only Season Thickets Passengers)

http://www2.ttcn.ne.jp/honkawa/2340.html

Page 20: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

行動群分析への展開Differet Groups (Transportation Modes and Lifestyle)

①非車依存ホワイトカラー

②非車依存ブルーカラー

④非車依存農林漁業

⑤非車依存非就業者

⑥非車依存高齢者

⑦車依存就業者公共交通併用

⑧車完全依存就業者

⑨車依存女性就業者

⑩車依存非就業者

⑪生徒・児童・ 園児

③非車依存学生

Page 21: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

非車依存一般タイプ

非車依存児童タイプ

非車依存高齢者タイプ

車依存一般タイプ

車依存公共交通タイプ

全体に占める割合(%

昭和62年

平成4年

平成11年

平成17年

行動群構成比の経年変化(Total Japan)

⑧⑨⑩

①~⑤

From 1987to 2005

Page 22: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

Transportation mode of trips to Tokyo city area

63,9

69,4

72,5

73,9

78,8

9,7

11,0

10,1

8,7

4,3

3,7

5,2

6,4

7,7

7,4

13,8

9,6

6,0

5,8

5,2

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

1968

1978

1988

1998

2008

Train Bus/Tram Car Motorcycle Bicycle Walk Others

(%)

22

Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)

Page 23: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

18,7

19,1

16,6

14,5

14,9

8,8

8,7

8,4

6,7

5,8

9,5

11,4

15,5

25,0

29,6

7,8

10,3

13,2

14,5

15,3

53,9

48,5

44,3

37,6

28,0 4,8

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

1968

1978

1988

1998

2008

Train Bus/Tram Car Motorcycle Bicycle Walk Others

(%)

Transportation mode of elderly people(Over 65 years old)

23

Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)

Page 24: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

Population estimation of Tokyo metropolitan area (Over 65 years old)

4.139 4.498 3.934 5.170

3.179

4.827

5.959 6.025

7.319

9.326 9.893

11.195

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

2010 2020 2030 2040

Over 75 65-74Over 75 65-74

Elderly population [/Thousand]

Elderly Population Ratio [%]

24

Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)

Page 25: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

25

Decrease of Trip Numbers

AGE

TRIP NUMBERS/Person Day

TOKY MET.

← Young Old →

Page 26: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

Purpose of Network-based Compact City

Difficulty in maintaining medical, welfare, and commercial service

Shrink of the public transportation network and deterioration of the quality of the service

■ Regional Economic Decline

■ Deterioration of functions supporting urban lives

Regional industrial stagnation Increase of vacant lands and stores, decline of downtown

Increasing social security costs Addressing the aging infrastructure

■ Strict Governments’ Finances

Challenges of Urban Area Effects of Compacness

Maintenance and improvement of urban livability Maintaining community services Improving accessibility to local services Social participation by the elderly

Revitalization of regional economy

More productive in service industries, such as public transport, medical care, welfare and commerce.

Reduction of administrative cost Reducing the maintenance cost of for

infrastructureMore efficient in administrative serviceMaintaining land value and the revenue of

property tax Controlling social security cost through health

enhancement

Less burden on global environment

Compact CityAgglomeration of population by

guiding and concentrating community amenities and residence

Restructuring of transportation network coordinating with community development

+Network

More efficient use of energy Reducing CO2 emission

Polycentric Network-based Compact City with city center and local cores linked by

user-friendly public transport

Making urban Environment to safe and comfortable for the elderly and households with children

Maintaining and improving business environment

Financially sustainable urban management

Realization of urban structure with low carbon emission

○ Depopulation and Aging○ Urban Sprawl

Current urban trend

26

Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure,

Transport and Tourism

Page 27: Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development€¦ · (Tokaido Line) 2010 1. Tsukuba~Akihabara (Tsukuba Express) 2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo (Yamanote Line/ Kehin Tohoku Line)

【機密性2】

◆ Lenient control of residential developments outside the districtsPrior notification of a large residential development outside the

district, followed by consultation with local municipalities.

Working Toward “Network-based Compact City”

Based on the Act on Special Measures concerning Urban Reconstruction and Act on Revitalization and Rehabilitation of Local PublicTransportation Systems amended in 2014, the local municipalities are expected to guide houses and community amenities into key areas andto develop a sustainable local public transportation network which connects these areas, while taking the entire city structure into account.

In order to encourage the municipalities to guide community amenities into designated districts, the Japanese Government providesincentives such as budgetary support for creating and implementing such plans.

Siting Optimization Plan (created by cities)【Amended Act on Special Measures concerning Urban Reconstruction】

(Enacted Aug 1 2014)

◆ Lenient control of community amenity siting outside the districts Prior notification of community amenity development outside

the districts, followed by consultation with local municipalities.

◆ Improving living conditions within districtsEnable housing developers to make proposals on urban planning and landscape planning

Residential advancement districtEstablish areas that attract residents and maintain population density

Community amenity advancement districtIdentify the areas where certain amenities are encouraged to be sited

◆Promote establishment of urban functions (such as welfare, healthcare, commerce.)

Provide tax and financial incentives to service-attracting facilities Relax floor area ratio requirements, etc. for rebuilding welfare

and healthcare-related facilities Effective use of public real estate and

unused/underused land◆Walkable city Support development of pedestrian walkways

Local public transportation networking plan【Amended Act on Revitalization and Rehabilitation of Local Public Transportation Systems】

(Enacted Nov. 20 2014)

Developed by local government lead Integrated with city development Takes the whole city structure into account to

redevelop public transportation networks for the entire region

Approval by MLIT (Minister)

Improve related laws and establish new incentives, such as budgetary support.

Regional public transportionreorganization plan(created by local government, with consent from the operaters,etc.)

Reinforce public transportation services

Improve transit hubs

ZGuide and concentrate community amenities

to key areas

Walkable/bike-friendly development

Circular transportation system

Feeder lines such as community buses

Demand-responsive bus (taxi)

Siting Optimization Plan

Local public ranpsortation networking plan

integration

Positive cycle

Polycentric network-based Compact City

27

Encourage more housing near public transportation

Source: Ministry of Land,

Infrastructure,

Transport and Tourism