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Tokyo Past, Now and Future: Transportation and Development Aging, Structural Change, Sustainability2016/11/18 Mamoru Taniguchi Professor, University of Tsukuba 1

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  • Tokyo Past, Now and Future:Transportation and Development~Aging, Structural Change, Sustainability~

    2016/11/18

    Mamoru Taniguchi

    Professor, University of Tsukuba

    1

  • Mamoru Taniguchi, Dr. Eng.

    Chair of Department of Policy and Planning Sciences

    International Federation for Housing and Planning (Previous Council Member)

    In Japan, Member of

    National Land Council

    Council for Transport Policy

    National Council for Infrastructure

    Central Environment Council

    2

  • Population density of Tokyo metropolitan area (1970)

    0- 10001000- 20002000- 30003000- 40004000-

    Unit:People/km2

    3

    Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)

  • 4Population density of Tokyo metropolitan area (2010)

    Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)

    0- 10001000- 20002000- 30003000- 40004000-

    Unit:People/km2

  • 5

  • 首都圏における市街地の拡大

    1937年 1947年 1957年1880年 1910年 1932年

    1976年 2006年出典:新谷洋二,都市交通計画,技法堂出版,1993 (1880年から1957年の図)

    国土数値情報ダウンロードサービスhttp://nlftp.mlit.go.jp/ksj/index.html より作成(1976年から2006年の図)

    市街地

  • 7Urban Area :Sprawl Tokyo suburb (1956)

  • 8Urban Area: Sprawl

    Tokyo suburb (1991)

  • 9

    Late development areas after 1985, that locate far from

    train stations cause serious problems in near future.

    How to explain citizens? → ‘Inferno Cartton’

  • 典型的郊外住宅地

    • 六地蔵

    • 那古の

    10

  • 11Population estimation of Tokyo metropolitan area

    TMA/Japan

    Tokyo/TMA

    0,0

    10,0

    20,0

    30,0

    40,0

    50,0

    60,0

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    Population[Million]

    Chiba

    Saitama

    Kanagawa

    Tokyo

    TMA/Japan

    Tokyo/TMA

    TMA/Japan[%]Tokyo/TMA[%]

    Source: Mohri, Morio (2014) and National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

  • Population Desity 2010

  • Increase of Population

    Desity 2000~2010

  • Railway network of Tokyo metropolitan area (1960)

    14

    Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)

  • 15Railway network of Tokyo metropolitan area (2010)

    Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)

  • City Name TsukubaTozuka Ward(Yokohama)

    Tama Mishima

    Population1960 52,568 113,514 9,746 64,9712010 214,590 274,324 147,648 111,921Ratio 4.11 2.42 15.15 1.72

    Main Station1960 Tsukuba Sta. Tozuka Sta. Seiseki Sakuragaoka Sta. Mishima Sta.2010 Tsukuba Sta. Tozuka Sta. Keio Tama Center Sta. Mishima Sta.

    Route

    1960

    1. Tsukuba~Tsuchiura(Tsukuba Line)

    2. Tsuchiura ~ Ueno(Joban Line)

    3. Ueno ~ Tokyo(Yamanote Line/Kehin Tohoku Line)

    Tozuka ~ Tokyo(Yokosuka Line)

    1.Seiseki Sakuragaoka~ Shinjuku

    2. Shinjuku ~ Tokyo(Chuo Line)

    Mishima ~ Tokyo

    (Tokaido Line)

    2010

    1. Tsukuba~Akihabara(Tsukuba Express)

    2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo(Yamanote Line/Kehin Tohoku Line)

    Tozuka ~ Tokyo(Tokaido Line/Yokosuka Line/

    Soubu Line)

    1. Keio Tama Center~ Shinjuku

    (Keio Sagamihara Line)2. Shinjuku ~ Tokyo

    (Chuo Line)

    Mishima~Tokyo(TokaidoShinkansen)

    Required Time to Tokyo Sta.

    (min)

    1960 168 44 75 1112010 62 41 58 55Ratio 0.37 0.93 0.77 0.50

    Frequency of Service

    (/3h)

    1960 4 14 9 62010 17 57 20 12Ratio 4.25 4.07 2.22 2.00

    Improvement of railway services 16Source: Mohri et al.(2014)

  • 48

    30

    12

    12

    3

    22

    15

    10

    21

    14

    32

    23

    15

    30

    39

    21

    12

    23

    40

    33

    20

    11

    6

    4

    0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

    Tokyo

    Seoul

    GreaterLondon

    New York

    Beijing

    Train Bus Bicycle Walk Car Others[%]

    Mode of transportation in world cities 17

    Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism(2013)

  • Transportation share of trips in Tokyo metropolitan area

    24,8

    22,8

    25,1

    25,5

    29,7

    17,0

    24,4

    27,5

    32,9

    28,0

    5,7

    12,9

    14,8

    14,6

    14,1

    43,1

    33,9

    27,0

    22,5

    21,5

    0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

    1968

    1978

    1988

    1998

    2008

    Train Bus Car Motorcycle Bicycle Walk Others

    (%)

    18

    Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)

  • 19

    Tokyo.Met. Nagoya.Met. Osaka.Met.

    Change of Commuting Minutes (Only Season Thickets Passengers)

    http://www2.ttcn.ne.jp/honkawa/2340.html

  • 行動群分析への展開Differet Groups (Transportation Modes and Lifestyle)

    ①非車依存ホワイトカラー

    ②非車依存ブルーカラー

    ④非車依存農林漁業

    ⑤非車依存非就業者

    ⑥非車依存高齢者

    ⑦車依存就業者公共交通併用

    ⑧車完全依存就業者

    ⑨車依存女性就業者

    ⑩車依存非就業者

    ⑪生徒・児童・ 園児

    ③非車依存学生

  • 0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    非車依存一般タイプ

    非車依存児童タイプ

    非車依存高齢者タイプ

    車依存一般タイプ

    車依存公共交通タイプ

    全体に占める割合(%

    昭和62年

    平成4年

    平成11年

    平成17年

    行動群構成比の経年変化(Total Japan)

    ⑧⑨⑩

    ①~⑤

    From 1987to 2005

  • Transportation mode of trips to Tokyo city area

    63,9

    69,4

    72,5

    73,9

    78,8

    9,7

    11,0

    10,1

    8,7

    4,3

    3,7

    5,2

    6,4

    7,7

    7,4

    13,8

    9,6

    6,0

    5,8

    5,2

    0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

    1968

    1978

    1988

    1998

    2008

    Train Bus/Tram Car Motorcycle Bicycle Walk Others

    (%)

    22

    Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)

  • 18,7

    19,1

    16,6

    14,5

    14,9

    8,8

    8,7

    8,4

    6,7

    5,8

    9,5

    11,4

    15,5

    25,0

    29,6

    7,8

    10,3

    13,2

    14,5

    15,3

    53,9

    48,5

    44,3

    37,6

    28,0 4,8

    0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

    1968

    1978

    1988

    1998

    2008

    Train Bus/Tram Car Motorcycle Bicycle Walk Others

    (%)

    Transportation mode of elderly people(Over 65 years old)

    23

    Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)

  • Population estimation of Tokyo metropolitan area (Over 65 years old)

    4.139 4.498 3.934 5.170

    3.179

    4.827

    5.959 6.025

    7.319

    9.326 9.893

    11.195

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    0

    2.000

    4.000

    6.000

    8.000

    10.000

    12.000

    14.000

    2010 2020 2030 2040

    Over 75 65-74Over 75 65-74

    Elderly population [/Thousand]

    Elderly Population Ratio [%]

    24

    Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)

  • 25

    Decrease of Trip Numbers

    AGE

    TRIP NUMBERS/Person Day

    TOKY MET.

    ← Young Old →

  • Purpose of Network-based Compact City

    Difficulty in maintaining medical, welfare, and commercial service

    Shrink of the public transportation network and deterioration of the quality of the service

    ■ Regional Economic Decline

    ■ Deterioration of functions supporting urban lives

    Regional industrial stagnation Increase of vacant lands and stores, decline of downtown

    Increasing social security costs Addressing the aging infrastructure

    ■ Strict Governments’ Finances

    Challenges of Urban Area Effects of Compacness

    Maintenance and improvement of urban livability Maintaining community services Improving accessibility to local services Social participation by the elderly

    Revitalization of regional economy

    More productive in service industries, such as public transport, medical care, welfare and commerce.

    Reduction of administrative cost Reducing the maintenance cost of for

    infrastructureMore efficient in administrative serviceMaintaining land value and the revenue of

    property tax Controlling social security cost through health

    enhancement

    Less burden on global environment

    Compact CityAgglomeration of population by

    guiding and concentrating community amenities and residence

    Restructuring of transportation network coordinating with community development

    +Network

    More efficient use of energy Reducing CO2 emission

    Polycentric Network-based Compact City with city center and local cores linked by

    user-friendly public transport

    Making urban Environment to safe and comfortable for the elderly and households with children

    Maintaining and improving business environment

    Financially sustainable urban management

    Realization of urban structure with low carbon emission

    ○ Depopulation and Aging○ Urban Sprawl

    Current urban trend

    26

    Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure,

    Transport and Tourism

  • 【機密性2】

    ◆ Lenient control of residential developments outside the districtsPrior notification of a large residential development outside the

    district, followed by consultation with local municipalities.

    Working Toward “Network-based Compact City”

    Based on the Act on Special Measures concerning Urban Reconstruction and Act on Revitalization and Rehabilitation of Local PublicTransportation Systems amended in 2014, the local municipalities are expected to guide houses and community amenities into key areas andto develop a sustainable local public transportation network which connects these areas, while taking the entire city structure into account.

    In order to encourage the municipalities to guide community amenities into designated districts, the Japanese Government providesincentives such as budgetary support for creating and implementing such plans.

    Siting Optimization Plan (created by cities)【Amended Act on Special Measures concerning Urban Reconstruction】

    (Enacted Aug 1 2014)

    ◆ Lenient control of community amenity siting outside the districts Prior notification of community amenity development outside

    the districts, followed by consultation with local municipalities.

    ◆ Improving living conditions within districtsEnable housing developers to make proposals on urban planning and landscape planning

    Residential advancement districtEstablish areas that attract residents and maintain population density

    Community amenity advancement districtIdentify the areas where certain amenities are encouraged to be sited

    ◆Promote establishment of urban functions (such as welfare, healthcare, commerce.)

    Provide tax and financial incentives to service-attracting facilities Relax floor area ratio requirements, etc. for rebuilding welfare

    and healthcare-related facilities Effective use of public real estate and

    unused/underused land◆Walkable city Support development of pedestrian walkways

    Local public transportation networking plan【Amended Act on Revitalization and Rehabilitation of Local Public Transportation Systems】

    (Enacted Nov. 20 2014)

    Developed by local government lead Integrated with city development Takes the whole city structure into account to

    redevelop public transportation networks for the entire region

    Approval by MLIT (Minister)

    Improve related laws and establish new incentives, such as budgetary support.

    Regional public transportionreorganization plan(created by local government, with consent from the operaters,etc.)

    Reinforce public transportation services

    Improve transit hubs

    ZGuide and concentrate community amenities

    to key areas

    Walkable/bike-friendly development

    Circular transportation system

    Feeder lines such as community buses

    Demand-responsive bus (taxi)

    Siting Optimization Plan

    Local public ranpsortation networking plan

    integration

    Positive cycle

    Polycentric network-based Compact City

    27

    Encourage more housing near public transportation

    Source: Ministry of Land,

    Infrastructure,

    Transport and Tourism

  • Siting Optimization Plan Area=Urban Planning Area

    Siting Optimization Plan (figure)

    28

    Urbanization promotion area

    Residential advancement district

    Community amenities advancement district

    Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure,

    Transport and Tourism

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7fpj8rbIkYw/UUhhhdZPRWI/AAAAAAAAO74/BnpLP-WFwT4/s1600/train_red.pnghttp://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7fpj8rbIkYw/UUhhhdZPRWI/AAAAAAAAO74/BnpLP-WFwT4/s1600/train_red.pnghttp://3.bp.blogspot.com/-B7oe4x6llFw/UUFxol28B7I/AAAAAAAAOyM/UD4uONn35NE/s1600/car_taxi.pnghttp://3.bp.blogspot.com/-B7oe4x6llFw/UUFxol28B7I/AAAAAAAAOyM/UD4uONn35NE/s1600/car_taxi.pnghttp://3.bp.blogspot.com/-B7oe4x6llFw/UUFxol28B7I/AAAAAAAAOyM/UD4uONn35NE/s1600/car_taxi.pnghttp://3.bp.blogspot.com/-B7oe4x6llFw/UUFxol28B7I/AAAAAAAAOyM/UD4uONn35NE/s1600/car_taxi.png