top 10 forecasts, 2008 let’s get right to it…. why bother with the future "if you think...
TRANSCRIPT
Top 10 Forecasts, 2008
Let’s get right to it….
Why bother with the future
"If you think that you can run an organization in the next 10 years… … as you've run it in the past 10 years…
you're out of your you're out of your mind."mind."
CEO, Coca Cola
““When the rate When the rate of change of change
outside your outside your company company
exceeds the exceeds the rate of change rate of change
inside your inside your company, company, disaster is disaster is imminent”imminent”
Lou Pritchet Senior VP, Procter & Gamble
Looking to the future:common mistakes Making predictions rather than
attaching probabilities to possibilities
Simply extrapolating current trends
Thinking of only one future
“When faced with a totally new situation we tend to attach ourselves to the objects of the most recent past.
Marshall McLuhan
We look at the present through a rear view mirror”
Looking to the future: common mistakes
People consistently Overestimate the effect of short term change
& Underestimate the effect of long term change.
Ian Morrison,
former president of the Institute for the FutureConsider the "Historical Record
of Inane Inaccuracies" ”
Effective Forecasting - The Desired vs The Likely
The best way to predict the future is to invent it–
Alan Kay--‘Father’ of the PC and GUI interface
R E A C T I V E
C R E A T I V E
Change how you “C” things!
The point is not so much to predict “the” future…
but to prepare for various contingencies
Based on the logical extension of established trends
The point is not so much to predict “the” future…
but to prepare for various contingencies
Based on the logical extension of established trends
How best to prepare for the future
0%
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60%
70%
80%
%of GNP
1850 1950 2050
AgricultureManufacturingServices
Some things are clear--
How best to think about the future
Think of the drivers of change
Use the drivers to imagine different scenarios of the future
Imagine perhaps three; each should be plausible but different
Extrapolate back from those future scenarios to think about what to do now to prepare
TechnoSphere InfoSphere SocioSphere PsychoSphere Bio & PowerSpheres
TechnoSphere InfoSphere SocioSphere PsychoSphere Bio & PowerSpheres
What “Drivers” Have We Observed?
What “Drivers” Have We Observed?
What occurred in past few decades to precipitate a
paradigm shift in Marketing…
From product to customer centered
From mass to micro strategy
From customer acquisition to retention
From regarding marketing as a function to envisioning it as a philosophy
Enabled by TechnologicallyPrecipitated by GlobalizationNecessitated by Consumers
technology convergence is fueling a new economy
Computing Computing TechnologiesTechnologies
Communication Communication TechnologiesTechnologies
Content Content TechnologiesTechnologies
The resulting Techno/Info-sphere is re-defining the business landscape for the 21st
century
COMPUNICATIONS
COMPUNICATIONS
CONVERGENTTECHNOLOGY
Socio/Psycho-
Graphic
DIVERSITY
Future Marketing Environme
nt
NONCONVERGENTTECHNOLOGIES
Socio/Psycho-Graphic
HOMOGENEITY
Past Marketing Environme
nt
TechnoSphere DriversTechnoSphere Drivers
Ubiquitous- Imbedded Intelligence
Ubiquitous- Imbedded Intelligence
Information technology will transform our day-to-day lives.
"The big trends - are the availability of cheap sensors that provide digital data, cheap computing power and ubiquitous connectivity - the ability to connect to networks,"
by 2020 everything large enough to carry a microchip probably will, and from there the possibilities are endless.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/0,15047,1299021,00.html
Imbedded intelligence & low-cost omnipresent bandwidth
3G videophones w/ broadband – 2 megper second –
AI Enhanced PDA devices w/ speech recognition & avatars
RFID – everywhere & in everything
Enabled by TechnologicallyPrecipitated by GlobalizationNecessitated by Consumers
After more than a century of electric technology, we have extended our central nervous system in a global embrace, abolishing both space & time”
-Marshall McLuhan, Understanding Media- 1955
Rise of the “Global Village”Rise of the “Global Village”Rise of the “Global Village”Rise of the “Global Village”
…… not just the “shrinking” of time & space
The new electronic media have transcended time & space w/ “virtual mobility”
Borders have become meaninglessBorders have become meaningless
Trans-National* Cross-Cultural
High Speed/ Low Cost
Transportation & Communication
The entire globe is now tied
together as a single
community operating 24/7/365
The Compunications DriverThe Compunications Driver
The further, faster, easier, cheaper & more frequent people are able
to travel & communicate…
the greater the amount of interaction &
influenceThe greater the degree
of Globalization
Enabled by TechnologicallyPrecipitated by GlobalizationNecessitated by Consumers
20th CenturyHomogenous Consumers
21st CenturyFragmented Consumers
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Extreme shifts in:
AgeWealthEthnicity CultureLifestage patterns Household compositionValue systems
Source: IBM Institute for Business Value analysis
Consumer values are fragmenting
X+ generation=techno-savvy accessing information whenever & wherever they want it
Product knowledgeThird-party commentary Ubiquitous networkingNext-generationmobile devices
Advanced infomediaries
Source: IBM Institute for Business Value analysis
& Info Savvy
Source: (1) GMA Forum, “Do We Have a Crisis in Brand Management,” Q3 2003; (2) Forrester Research, “Privacy for Sale,” 11 Jun 02; IBM Institute for Business Value analysis
Blocking Out, Shutting Down
Overexposed & “on” to marketing
Ignore irrelevant, low-value messages
Actively block unsolicited communications
Becoming more complex--age, sex & income
reversals
Becoming more self-centered & Home centered
Have less time & more choices
Are less brand loyal
More connected & more informed
Have lower attention spans
& higher expectations
Are living & shopping more
for today…Less long range
planningSeeking new/ heightened sensation
& experiences
Today’sConsumers
Preparing for the Future:
A Quick N’ Dirty Environmental Scan
• “By 2015, desktop operating systems will be largely irrelevant. •The Web will be the only OS worth coding for.• It won't matter what device you use, as long as it runs on the Web OS.•You will reach the same distributed computer whether you log on via phone, PDA, laptop, or HDTV”
The "global brain” is
beginning to emerge
We are the web—Kevin Kelly-Wired magazine-August 2005
Each time we forge a link between words, we teach it an idea…. That massive cross-referencing is how brains think and remember.
What will most surprise us is how dependent we will be on what the Machine knows - about us and about what we want to know.
We already find it easier to Google something a second or third time rather than remember it ourselves.
The more we teach this megacomputer, the more it will assume responsibility for our knowing. It will become our memory. Then it will become our identity.
Within a quarter century,
nonbiological intelligence
will match the range and subtlety of
human intelligence
The Singularity is Near
rise of…atomic & molecular computersquantum computersnanotechnologyoptical computers DNA computers–or even a “computer in a pen”
Age of Silicon is at
an end!
More Concerned w/ Corporate citizenship
More Eco-conscious
Expect immediate personalized attention
Health #1
Very tech savvy
70% music & books bought
online
shopping more on impulse…
High levels dissatisfaction w/
retailing
TomorrowsConsumers
Living/ Growing up in the Global Village Cross- generations Cross- cultural Cross- mediated experiences
Emergence of an inter:
•National
•Cultural
•Changeable workforce
Global- Psycho-Spheric
Schizophrenia
Multi-National Commercialization of
Public Sector Services
The De-Definition of American
0%
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30%
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50%
60%
70%
80%
%of GNP
1850 1950 2050
AgricultureManufacturingServices
Some things are clear--
Evolving Now into Just One Big Market: Evolving Now into Just One Big Market: The Global EconomyThe Global Economy
Evolving Now into Just One Big Market: Evolving Now into Just One Big Market: The Global EconomyThe Global Economy
…… the increasing tendency of economies around the world to interact w/ one another as one market instead of many national markets
For US- Presently about 1/3 of profits and 1/5 of economic growth are related to global business
The Global Village
The Global Economy
The Global Corporation
http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/0,15047,1299021,00.html
•Growing divergence between those employed in highly skilled, highly paid
professions, and those at the bottom .. The economy of work.. will be increasingly hourglass-shaped. "At the top end of the jobs hierarchy, people are likely to enjoy substantial discretion over their hours, places and patterns of working time…
•Outsourcing, … will continue. Reservation agents, computer programmers, database managers, financial analysts - all those whose jobs that depend, in part, on an ability to master repetitive tasks performed on a computer - will have been relocated abroad. "Only the customer-facing jobs will be left,"
•Growing divergence between those employed in highly skilled, highly paid
professions, and those at the bottom .. The economy of work.. will be increasingly hourglass-shaped. "At the top end of the jobs hierarchy, people are likely to enjoy substantial discretion over their hours, places and patterns of working time…
•Outsourcing, … will continue. Reservation agents, computer programmers, database managers, financial analysts - all those whose jobs that depend, in part, on an ability to master repetitive tasks performed on a computer - will have been relocated abroad. "Only the customer-facing jobs will be left,"
Networking is critical in building competency & competitiveness
2nd WavePowerSphere~Collapse
2nd WavePowerSphere~Collapse
"As the Second Wave produced a mass society, the Third Wave de-massifies us,………. moving the entire social system to a much higher level of diversity & complexity.
This revolutionary process, much like the biological differentiation that occurs in evolution, helps explain one of today's most noted political phenomena - the collapse of consensus."
Toffler, The Third Wave, p. 408 Toffler, The Third Wave, p. 408
What, then, happens to the very notion of
'representative democracy?' Under the convergence of speed & diversity,
can any constituency can be "represented?" In a mass industrial society, when people and
their needs were fairly uniform and basic, consensus was an attainable goal.
In a de-massified society, we not only lack national purpose, we also lack regional, statewide, or city-wide purpose. ... The elected representative cannot
represent the general will for the simple reason that there is none
Under the convergence of speed & diversity, can any constituency can be "represented?"
In a mass industrial society, when people and their needs were fairly uniform and basic, consensus was an attainable goal.
In a de-massified society, we not only lack national purpose, we also lack regional, statewide, or city-wide purpose. ... The elected representative cannot
represent the general will for the simple reason that there is none
Toffler, The Third Wave, p. 410
the collapse of consensus
In 2nd Wave society a political leader could glue
together half a dozen major blocs, as Roosevelt did in
1932, and expect the resulting coalition to
remain locked in position for many years.
the collapse of consensus
Today it is necessary to plug together hundreds, even thousands, of tiny, short-lived special interest groups… that cleave together just long enough to elect a president, then break apart again the day after the election, leaving him without a base of support for his programs
“In all likelihood it will require the radical overhaul –or even scraping-of:
.. all the unwieldy & unworkable apparatus of supposedly representative governments”…
“In all likelihood it will require the radical overhaul –or even scraping-of:
.. all the unwieldy & unworkable apparatus of supposedly representative governments”…
Toffler- The 3rd Wave
http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/0,15047,1299021,00.html
“The onward march of individualism - either through choice or fate - is still probably
the major force shaping our world”
“The onward march of individualism - either through choice or fate - is still probably
the major force shaping our world”
The central question is: Will the slow collapse of institutions that have been vehicles for our shared identity mean
collapse of identity itself?
Frontline- The Persuaders
The Near Future: Marketing
Considerations
The Near Future: Marketing
Considerations
“In today already walks
tomorrow.” Friedrich von
Schiller
Marketing’s Evolution Mirrors Civilization’s….
From 2nd wave Manufacturing Mentality
To 3rd Wave Information & Relationship Mgt. Process
Welcome to the Future
Real time data mining— conducted ‘round the world 24/7/365
On-going Consumer input & generated content
Marketing messages constructed “on the fly”-and delived thru integrated & individualized communication channels…
Analytical marketing skills and processes will be paramount
Career Competencies Needed by New -Marketers…
Traditional Skills Sales mgt Advertising mgt Sales promotion
mgt Marketing
research Pricing
Traditional Skills Sales mgt Advertising mgt Sales promotion
mgt Marketing
research Pricing
PLUS: Customer relationship
management (CRM) Partner relationship
management (PRM) Marketing Resource Mgt.:
Database Mgt & Data-mining Lifetime Profitability
analysis by segment, customer, channel
Integrated marketing communications; Public relations -(including event & cause sponsorship, buzz marketing)
PLUS: Customer relationship
management (CRM) Partner relationship
management (PRM) Marketing Resource Mgt.:
Database Mgt & Data-mining Lifetime Profitability
analysis by segment, customer, channel
Integrated marketing communications; Public relations -(including event & cause sponsorship, buzz marketing)
From Decision Support to Decision Automation: A 2020 VisionRandolph E. Bucklin, Donald R. Lehmann, and John D. C. Little; In coming decades, a
growing proportion of marketing decisions will be automated by ever-more-powerful combinations of data, combinations of data, models, and models, and computers.computers.
New age of marketing decision support will usher in an era of decision automation.
In coming decades, a growing proportion of marketing decisions will be automated by ever-more-powerful combinations of data, combinations of data, models, and models, and computers.computers.
New age of marketing decision support will usher in an era of decision automation. Marketing Resource Mgt
User Interface
WorkflowCollaboration
ContentManagement
Marketing Functionality
Marketing Context
Living Tomorrow –
Got Milk?
Got Pants?
Watching TV
Washing Clothes
Going to the Bathroom
Going to Bed
& Most Significantly:
Decision Support & Automation Systems- will be implemented within the consumer as well as business environments--
& Most Significantly:
Decision Support & Automation Systems- will be implemented within the consumer as well as business environments--