National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2:30 pm Mon Mar 7 2016

Special Weather Update By Roger Erickson, Warning Coordination Meteorologist

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TOP STORY: A heavy rain/flooding

event is expected to start Tuesday afternoon and

last through Thursday or Friday. There is also a

small threat for severe storms.

9.00”

2.00” 3.00”

4.00”

5.00”

6.00”

7.00”

8.00”

Rain Totals Forecast Through Thursday Afternoon

National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2:30 pm Mon Mar 7 2016

Tuesday Rainfall Forecast

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The rain will begin in earnest in the afternoon,

and continue into the evening. The heaviest rain will be seen in southeast

Texas and western Louisiana with over two

inches expected.

Beaumont

Jasper

Alexandria

Lake Charles

Opelousas

Lafayette

Morgan City

DeRidder

2.00”

1.00” 0.50”

0.25”

0.10” 0.01”

3.00”

National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2:30 pm Mon Mar 7 2016

Wednesday Rainfall Forecast

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Wednesday will likely see two periods of heavy rain, one in the early morning

and another in the afternoon and evening. The heaviest rain will again be in

southeast Texas and western Louisiana, with 2-4

inches expected.

Beaumont

Jasper

Alexandria

Lake Charles

Opelousas

Lafayette

Morgan City

DeRidder

2.00”

3.00”

4.00” 5.00”

1.00”

0.50”

0.25”

0.10”

0.01”

National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2:30 pm Mon Mar 7 2016

Thursday Rainfall Forecast

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Thursday is also expected to bring heavy rains, with 2-3

inches forecast across much of our forecast area.

Beaumont

Jasper

Alexandria

Lake Charles

Opelousas

Lafayette

Morgan City

DeRidder

2.00”

3.00”

1.00”

0.50”

0.25”

National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2:30 pm Mon Mar 7 2016

Friday Rainfall Forecast

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Rain will be higher to the east and less in the west, but overall totals for the day is less than one inch.

Beaumont

Jasper

Alexandria

Lake Charles

Opelousas

Lafayette

Morgan City

DeRidder

2.00”

1.00” 0.50”

0.25”

0.10”

National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2:30 pm Mon Mar 7 2016

Saturday Rainfall Forecast

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Rain will be even less on Saturday, ranging from a

tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch.

Beaumont

Jasper

Alexandria

Lake Charles

Opelousas

Lafayette

Morgan City

DeRidder 1.00” 0.50”

0.25” 0.10” 0.01”

National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2:30 pm Mon Mar 7 2016

Sunday Rainfall Forecast

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Sunday looks to be drier, with most places seeing

less than a tenth of an inch of rain.

Beaumont

Jasper

Alexandria

Lake Charles

Opelousas

Lafayette

Morgan City

DeRidder 0.01”

0.10” 0.25”

National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2:30 pm Mon Mar 7 2016

Worse Case Scenario River Forecast

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Pink indicates a major flood, red is moderate,

and orange is minor flood.

Beaumont

Jasper

Alexandria

Lake Charles

Opelousas

Lafayette

Morgan City

DeRidder 0.01”

0.10” 0.25”

National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2:30 pm Mon Mar 7 2016

Severe Weather Threat Tuesday

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There is a small severe storm

threat Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

Mainly in western LA and southeast TX.

5% 15%

30%

National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2:30 pm Mon Mar 7 2016

Severe Weather Threat Wednesday

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There is a small chance for severe

storms Wednesday, with the morning and afternoon hours

having the higher threat.

15%

National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2:30 pm Mon Mar 7 2016

Wind Forecast Tuesday and Wednesday

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A wind advisory will likely be required both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.

Tuesday Afternoon Winds Wednesday Afternoon Winds

National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2:30 pm Mon Mar 7 2016

Sabine Pass Tides

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Tides approach coastal flood warning criteria (4 ft) on Wednesday morning.

03/02 6 pm 03/03 6 pm 03/04 6 pm 03/05 6 pm 03/06 6 pm 03/07 6 pm 03/08 6 pm 03/09 6 pm 03/10 6 pm

National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2:30 pm Mon Mar 7 2016

Calcasieu Pass Tides

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Tides approach coastal flood warning criteria (4 ft) on Wednesday morning.

03/02 6 pm 03/03 6 pm 03/04 6 pm 03/05 6 pm 03/06 6 pm 03/07 6 pm 03/08 6 pm 03/09 6 pm 03/10 6 pm

National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2:30 pm Mon Mar 7 2016

Freshwater Canal Tides

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Tides approach coastal flood advisory criteria (3.5 ft) on Thursday and Friday mornings during high tide.

03/02 6 pm 03/03 6 pm 03/04 6 pm 03/05 6 pm 03/06 6 pm 03/07 6 pm 03/08 6 pm 03/09 6 pm 03/10 6 pm

National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2:30 pm Mon Mar 7 2016

Amerada Pass Tides

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Tides should stay below coastal flood advisory criteria (3.5 ft). The highest tides will occur Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.

03/02 6 pm 03/03 6 pm 03/04 6 pm 03/05 6 pm 03/06 6 pm 03/07 6 pm 03/08 6 pm 03/09 6 pm 03/10 6 pm

National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2:30 pm Thu Mar 3 2016

Weather Summary

• Heavy rains are expected Tuesday through Thursday across the forecast area. Rain totals of 5 to 10 inches is expected, with locally higher amounts possible. A flash flood watch is in effect for southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana, and could be expanded east if conditions warrant.

• There is potential for area river to flood later this week and weekend, and they could reach moderate to major flood levels, depending on the exact location of the heaviest rains.

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National Weather Service Lake Charles, Louisiana 2:30 pm Thu Mar 3 2016

Weather Summary

• Strong southeast winds of 20 to 25 mph, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph, are expected Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. A wind advisory will likely be required both days.

• There is a small severe weather threat, both for Tuesday afternoon and evening, as well as Wednesday morning and afternoon. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible.

• Due to the strong onshore flow, tides will run above normal this week. A coastal flood advisory or warning will likely be issued. Expect minor coastal flooding during times of high tides Tuesday through Thursday.

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