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Toward Electricity Decarbonisation- Japan Perspective -
17 October 2019, Paris
Kazuhiro KURUMIDeputy Director, New and Renewable Energy Division
Agency for Natural Resources and EnergyMinistry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
Sixth Annual Expert Workshop Challenges in Electricity Decarbonisation
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Hokkaido5GW
Tohoku14GW
Kansai25GW
Hokuriku 5GW
Kyushu15GW
Chugoku10GW
Shikoku5GW
1.9GW
Chubu 24GW
Tokyo50GW
50Hz
4.1GW
2.5GW1.2GW 1.4GW
5.2GW
0.9GW
2.5GW
0.3GW
Frequency Converter
1.2GWOkinawa
2GW
Note: The figure in each area indicates the maximum electricity demand in 2016.The italic figure in each interconnection indicates operating capacity.
60Hz
Large electricitydemand areas
Grid structure
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
55606570 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017
新エネ等
石油等
LNG
水力
石炭
原子力
(TWh)
(FY)
3.1%
8.7%
39.8%
32.3%
7.9%
8.1%
1952
1,056
1,150Renewables (excl. hydro)
Oil
LNG
HydroCoal
Nuclear
Source: Energy White Paper 2019 in Japan 2
Power generation and power supply composition in Japan
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
Based on “Outline of electric power development (METI)” and “Outline of power supply plan (METI)”
Based on “Comprehensive energy statistics (METI)”
Non-fossilgeneration
19.1%
Renewable electricity introduction in Japan
3
(FY)
(GW)
10.4% 10.0%10.9%
12.5%
14.3%14.6%
16.0%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Solar PVWindGeothermalBiomassHydroRenewable generation ratio (right axis)
Capacity Renewablegeneration ratio
CO2 emissions from electricity sector in Japan
Source:Ministry of the Environment, GHG Emissions
Coal generation23%
Gas generation15%
Oil generation4%
4
electricity sector42%1.1Gt-CO2
(FY2016)
Industrial sector27%
Transport sector19%
Building sector10%
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Key measures for electricity decarbonisation
Non fossil fuel generation
Improving efficiencyof fossil fuel generation
Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage
(CCUS)
Flexibility sources(Storage, DSR, hydrogen, etc.)
Decarbonisation of transport and building sectorsthrough electrification
Electricity decarbonisation
Long-Term Strategy under Paris Agreement as Growth Strategy
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Sectoral vision
1. EnergyPursuing every option for promoting energy transitions and decarbonisation
2. IndustryDecarbonised manufacturing
5. Measures for Carbon Sinks
4. Community and LivingRealizing carbon neutrality, resilient and comfortable communities and lives by 2050/ creating “Circulating and Ecological Economy”
Cross-sectoral measures to realize a “virtuous cycle of environment and growth”i. Promotion of innovationii. Promotion of green financeiii. Business-led activities (improving business environments) and international cooperation
Vision: “Decarbonised Society” as the ultimate goal 80% GHG emissions reduction by 2050
Basic Principles of Policy: “Virtuous Cycle of Environment and Growth”
3. TransportContribution to the challenge of ”Well-to-Wheel Zero Emission”
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CO2 emissions1.13 Gt 0.93 Gt
Heat (buildings)0.11
Substantial GHG emissions reduction through innovation and international cooperation is indispensable
Non
-ele
ctric
ity s
ecto
rEl
ectr
icity
sec
tor
Industry 0.3
Transport0.21
Electricity 0.51
0.36
0.15
0.09
0.33
2016 2030 (▲26%)
0.2 to 0.3 Gt
2050 and beyond (▲80%)
●Recycling carbon as resource (CCUS)
●Decarbonisation of power and heat by utilisingcarbon-free hydrogen
●Reorganisation of network considering massive renewable introduction and distributed energy system
●Improvement of investment environmentfor improving foreseeability
●Market integration of renewables
●Contribution to global GHG emissions reduction through business-led overseas development
Global hydrogen alliance Overseas expansion of low-carbon
products and services
Decarbonising pathways toward 2050
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Renewable generation ratio
Final energy consumption per GDP
Non-fossil fuel generation ratio
GHG reduction ratio
19
-7
16
22-24%
44%
-26%
-35%
-8
Japan’s progress toward the mid-term target
(%)
(FY)
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Current 2030 2050 and beyond
Volume ofCO2 utilisation
Expected to be highly consumed from 2030 Chemicals
Polycarbonate, etc. Liquid Fuels
Bio-jet fuels, etc. Concrete Products
Road curb blocks, etc.
Phase 2 Attempt to reduce costs of technologies that are
expected to spread from 2030 onwards. Special effort should focus on technologies for
large-volume commodity, which will be enabled by inexpensive hydrogen supply from 2050 onwards. Attempts should be made to reach equivalent cost of existing energy and products from 2050 onward.
Pursue further cost reductionPhase 3
Pursue all potential technologies for carbon recycling initiatives.
Special effort should focus on technologies requiring no hydrogen and producing high-value added materials, both of which shall be expected to spread from around 2030 onwards.
Expected to Spread from 2050 Chemicals
Commodity (Olefin, BTX, etc.) Fuels
Gas, Liquid Concrete Products
Commodity
Expected to Spread from 2030 Chemicals
Polycarbonate, etc. Liquid Fuels
Bio-jet fuel, etc. Concrete Products
Road curb blocks, etc.
Cost must be reduced to 1/3 – 1/5 of current one
Cost must be reduced to around1/8 -1/16 of current one.
Concrete Products (Road curb blocks, etc.)
Liquid Fuels (Bio-jet fuel, etc).
Further reduction volume of CO2, for the polycarbonate.
Chemicals (polycarbonate, etc.)
Phase 1
CO2 capture technology Reducing cost Less than ¼ of current cost
Hydrogen JPY20/Nm3(cost at delivery site)
Roadmap for Carbon Recycling Technologies
https://www.meti.go.jp/press/2019/06/20190607002/20190607002-2.pdf
Conclusion
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Japan set a goal of reducing 80% GHG emissions by 2050 toward “Decarbonised Society”
Electricity decarbonisation could be achieved through:
⁃ Expanding non-fossil generation with flexibility sources
⁃ Improving efficiency of fossil fuel generation as wells as utilizing CCUS
Electricity decarbonisation also leads to other sectors’ decarbonisation through electrification
Innovation is indispensable
Speech by Prime Minister Abe at the WEF Annual Meeting (23 January 2019)
We must invite more and still more disruptive innovations before it‘s too late. CO2, ladies and gentlemen, could well be the best and most affordable resource for multiple uses. There is artificial photosynthesis, for which a key discovery, one for photocatalysis, was made by Akira Fujishima, a Japanese scientist. An old technology of methanation is getting attention anew to remove CO2. It's time now to think about CCU, Carbon Capture AND Utilisation. Hydrogen, as both a primary source, and more importantly, a carrier of energy, must become cheaper and more easily affordable. My government is aiming to reduce the production cost of hydrogen by at least 90 per cent by the year 2050, to make it cheaper than natural gas.We will be inviting to Japan topmost experts in science and technology from G20 member countries to
combine forces in accelerating innovations. I am also pleased to tell you that my government, first among others, published a guidance paper in December last year along with the TCFD, or Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures. ESG investment world-wide has grown over the last five years by more than 9 trillion US dollars. That's a big amount, but we must channel even more into green innovation. And the guideline we put together will help motivate more companies to spend greater amounts on disruptive innovations.I must say that spending money for a green earth and a blue ocean, once deemed costly, is now a
growth generator. Decarbonisation and profit making can happen in tandem. We policy makers must be held responsible to make it happen, as I will be stressing in Osaka this year.
I would very much like to highlight what innovation does and how much innovation counts in tackling climate change, because, and this is an important “because,” we NEED disruptions. To remind us of that, the IPCC, in its recent "1.5-degree report," tells us that global net human-caused emissions of CO2 should reach "net zero" around 2050, meaning that any remaining emissions would need to be balanced out by removing CO2 from the air.
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Thank you