traffic pollution, climate change and restricting car use
DESCRIPTION
Prof Margaret Bell CBE (Newcastle University) http://www.ncl.ac.uk/transport/people/profile/margaret.bell speaking at Acorn Road group meeting 18 July 2013TRANSCRIPT
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Traffic related pollution: Our progress managing air quality and
carbon emissions
Professor Margaret Bell CBENewcastle University, School of Civil
Engineering and Geosciences,Transport Operations Research Group
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
This Presentation• Local Authority Responsibilities • History and health impacts• Effect of driver behaviour on emissions• Carbon Emissions: How are we doing?• Effect of tailpipe emissions on roadside concentrations• Background versus roadside monitoring• Some Solutions?• The Challenge• The Future• Summary But………………….
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Responsibilities
Binding targets: 67% reduction eCO2 by 2050 over 2010Meet Air Quality Objectives - Nitrogen Dioxide and PM10Health: 50,000 deaths brought forward in 2010 due to poor air
qualityAccidents: In UK 1870 fatal accidents in 2010 Congestion:
• Damaging the economy• Major source emissions, • Destroying planet, • Reducing life expectancy and
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
History and Health Impacts
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
London Smog• 4th December 1952 for 5 days• 4,000 deaths• Anti cyclone over London, wind dropped, air
damp, thick fog• Air dark, tinged yellow, smelled of rotten eggs• Sulphur and other toxins from coal fires• BBC 5th December 2002 Reported
– 12,000 Deaths– Chronic respiratory cardiovascular
complaints– Mortality from bronchitis and pneumonia
increased >7 fold
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
London Smog
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
People and animals wore face masks
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Problems Today• Smoke and sulphur dioxide pollution in cities is much lower
than in the past
• BUT rapid growth of transport in the last 20 years has resulted in a different kind of pollution in urban areas
• Nowadays Photochemical Smogs build up during warm sunny days in summer, when air pollutants are trapped at ground level
• Experienced in Europe and Los Angeles for many years due to climate
• UK Government responded imposing standards and tasking LA to establish Air Quality Management Areas
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Traffic and Environmental Impacts
Source: The effects of emerging vehicle technologies on certain vehicle emissions not currently regulated (DfT 2006)
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Pollutants sources
• CO (poor combustion of carbon fuel• NO2 (motor vehicles, combustion) • SO2 (combustion, power stations)• PM10 (diesel and combustion)• HC benzene, butadiene (petrol)• O3 (secondary from sunlight on NOx and VOCS)
• Pb (Industry - removed from petrol)
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Cycling and walking: Win – Win for Health
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Effect of Driver Behaviour on Emissions
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Characterising UK vehicle emissions
Chassis dynamometer (e.g. Bath University)
Highly Instrumented vehicle (e.g. Leeds and Southampton University UK
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
RETEMM (Real-world Traffic Emissions Monitoring and Modelling) Project funded by UK EPSRC at Leeds University40 drivers (20 male, 20 female)Ages 21-63 years10 loops of the same 0.6km circuit
Data collection
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
(a) Carbon dioxide (b) Hydrocarbons (c) Oxides of Nitrogen
Driver 7 `
Driver 31
Over revving and Sloppy Gear changing is more polluting
Engine Speed versus Vehicle Speed
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Real-World Network Driving Emissions: Petrol
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
NO
x (g
/km
)
HC (g/km)0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
EURO0 EURO1 EURO2 EURO3 EURO4
NOX-HC
Aromatic & Olefin are predominant HC in O3
formation.
Not meeting targets
Ozone forming potential increasing
Diesel mainly emit NOx and Particulates More efficient engines burned PM10 to PM2.5
Increase in NH3 Daham (2006), Li et al (2006)
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Carbon Emissions- How are we doing?
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Carbon Emissions How are we doing?
2013 20501990
? 80% of 19902010
….
1998 20111987
2 Regions 600 links 900 links
SCO
OT
Leicester SCOOT database20...
Model change in UK Fleet emissions over time
Flow and Congestion
205067% of 1990
2005
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Carbon Emissions 1998-2011
• Traditional emission models - reduction in 2008 of about 10% over 1998
• Complex congestion related emission model - increase of about 3% over 1998 data
• After the recession the complex congestion related emission model – recession fall of 5% over 1998.
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Effect of tailpipe emissions on roadside concentrations
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Air Quality Monitoring
AURN Cabin
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Archive Data Analysis: AURN – Newcastle
Regeneration FiltersPrimary NO2 increases
Euro 3 Diesels Reduce VKT and promote public transport
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Engine Technologies In reducing primary NO
Fitted TRAPS Regenerate particle filters
BUT FineParticulates increased
Secondary NO2 dropped
Exacerbated Air Quality
Rhys-Tyler GA, Legassick W, Bell MC (2011).
Increased primary NO2
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Futures Project - London (Black Cabs) – NO / Smoke
Particle Traps fitted - elevated emissions NO2
FUTURES project
55,000 tailpipe emissions
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
London - NO2
mg/m3
Marylebone (outside RUC) Westminister (inside RUC)
NO2
Oct 97 – Oct 11
NO2
July 01 – Oct 11
Level and Duration increased since ~2005
mg/m3mg/m3
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Background versus roadside monitoring
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Novel Pervasive MonitoringGateway Mote
27
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Understanding Air Quality
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
BUS STATION
Provides evidence of the causes of the pollution problems
METRO STATION
OPEN SPACE
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
AQMA in Newcastle Area
AQMA corridor Canyon: Prevailing wind westerly
Regent Centre
Commuter traffic; School Run; High Bus Frequency; Pedestrian Activity
What can we do?
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
BUS STATION
METRO STATION
AQMA Newcastle Centre
Pedestrian Activity
High Bus flows and bus stops
High Bus flows into Haymarket Bus Station
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Bus-Bus Hub
• 0. Current Transport network for Gosforth
• 1. Bus hub - reduced number buses replaced with electric
• 2. Bus hub ditto with 10% modal shift 07:30- 08:45
• 3. Bus hub ditto with 20% modal shift 07:30 – 08:45
•
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Carbon SavingsScenario 0 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
CO2NOxVOCPM
Scenarios
Perc
enta
ge d
iffer
ence
s be
twee
n sc
enar
ios
Scenario 0 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 317.5
18
18.5
19
19.5
20
20.5
21
21.5
22
Average Speed comparisons between scenarios
Ave
rage
Spe
ed (k
m/h
)
Only 25% contribution against 67% reduction in level over 2010 needed by 2050
Over 4.2km saving of 1minute over a journey of 8.3minutes
Air Quality problem partially addressed
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
The Challenge
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
CO2 Emissions – Annual Household Travel and Energy Use
Gas
Annual emissions equivalent CO2
ElectricityTravel
575 Households 1527 individuals Energy used in home is 70% higher than saved not using car work
Respondent
50% gross emitters responsible for 96% travel; 60% household energy together 67% reduction at 2010
Gas
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
The Future…..
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
SECURE: Cycle of Living
Need to understand Inefficiencies
TRANSPORT-Supports every aspect of Living
‘Energy conservation’ policies – Resource Supply Waste Demand?
• Food Miles• Household kerbside
Recycling• Anaerobic Digestion
human waste• Biomass• School policies• etc
Gas
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Summary
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Summary• Scientific Evidence
– Not meeting Air Quality Standards– Not delivering Carbon Targets– Admissions to Hospital and Deaths attributed to traffic
related AQ and Noise• Emissions Control strategies – vehicle tax and Fuel duty
not delivering• Substantial reduction in Vehicle Kilometres necessary
– Every school a good school– Live close to work and Walk to shops– Use public transport or for necessary trips share ride– Adopt eco driving styles for essential journeys
• Sustainable futures rests with ‘doing things differently’
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
But…………..
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
For Interest: PM10 Levels in Four Cities
Cycle Taxi Car Motorcycle Minibus BRT Bus Train0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Mumbai
Wuhan
Jakarta
Newcastle
PM10
ug
m-3
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Concluding Remarks• Public Transport Operation should:
– Have symbiotic relationships with other transport systems– Accommodate non-motorised vehicles– Consider CO2 as a metric for performance evaluation
• ITS manage across modes and provide data to: – Inform/educate public– Improve operation– Monitor CO2
However:…….. Address need to travel…….. Land Use……… Education and Social
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Thank you for Listening
Questions?
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Acknowledgement EPSRC, Newcastle and Medway Councils and Dft, UK for
funding the research presented. Colleagues at the Transport Operations Research Group,
Newcastle University.
• Please take opportunities to reference the research presented. Consult the Reference list on the Personal webpage at the University www.newcastle.ac.uk
• or • Contact Margaret Bell directly.
18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences Cassie Building Newcastle UniversityNewcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU
Prof Margaret Bell CBEScience City Professor in Transport and Environment, [email protected]
Professor Bell was honoured as CBE, Commander of the British Empire for her services to Sustainable Transport in 2006 and is the Chair of the ITS(UK) Smart Environment Interest Group which was launched at 13th ITS World Congress in London in 2001
Professor Bell’s has almost forty years of research experience which embraces monitoring, modelling and management of traffic, emissions, air quality, noise and exposure; evaluation of health and carbon emissions impacts.