Trends and Forecasts 2011Up to the year 2030

russell.schmieder@scb.se

Forecast Institute Statistics Sweden

Education and Labour market projection to 2030

http://www.scb.se/Pages/Product____9938.aspxWith summary in English!

1. The purpose of the forecast and how it is used

2. The model

3. Findings for 2011

f• fTrender och

Prognoser 2011

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Nursing Education

TillgångEfterfrågan

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Primary school teachers edcucation

TillgångEfterfrågan

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Biology education

TillgångEfterfrågan

How Trends and Forecasts is spread

• Printed book• Access to data if requested• ’Forecast Day’ at SCB• Special analysis• Regional adaptations for municipalities

(2012)

How Trends and Forecasts is used

• Used by the Swedish government in the budget process.

• Used as background information in discussions on increasing or decreasing the number educational places

• Used by Ministries of Education and Finance, the Agency for Higher Education, members of Parliament, universities, other higher education institutions, and the Swedish Public Employment Agency.

How Trends and Forecasts is used

• Agency for Higher Education uses a version of ToP in discussions with higher education institutions

• information helps the institutions decide enrollment levels, new faculty to recruit, new programs, old ones to expand or close.

• Also helps study advisors at the institutions give concrete information to students so they can make better decisions about a career and education.

Trends and Forecasts also used in other political decision making

• inform and update Sweden’s political leadership on the current and future state of the educational system

• Example: the Ministry of Education recently used Trends and Forecasts as background support for a recommendation to increase the financing of adult education in the wake of the financial collapse

Purpose of the calculations

• is to focus on the imbalance between supply and demand for educated in the future

• is not to predict the future, but try to influence it

Characteristics of the calculations

• Consequence calculations

• No adjustment mechanisms in the calculations

• Calculations show 'gaps' between future supply and demand. A large gap implies need for action from policy makers

Central assumptions for calculations of supply

• Secondary• ’All' continue to upper

secondary school• The distribution

between study programmes unchanged

• Unchanged proportion complete their studies

• Post Secondary• The number of beginners

is set as the same as 2009/10, both totally and by education

• Graduation rate unchanged by sex and education

Central assumptions for calculations of demand

• Employment by economic activity is based on an branch forecast model developed with Caimbridge Econometrics

• Changes in the occupation structure is based on the development 2005-2009

• Compared to today, a stronger bond between occupation and education is assumed.

The Models

Education level Education Education Population and of the population A A forecast of number

2010 B B gainfully employed

Forecast over C C Economicstudy completion

D Ddevelopment

Migration . . Industy sector forecast

Deaths . . Occupation forecast

Rate of employmentetc. etc.

Skills needed

SUPPLY DEMAND

Basics for calculations

-102 Education groups- 48 industry branches -144 occupation categories -- Ages 16-74 - Forecast up to 2030 -

Modeling supply

(X)

(+)

(-)

(+)

(X)

1.Population 2010 - education

2. Survival Probability

3. Population 2010, projected to 2011 -education 2011

4. Graduates 2010 -education 2010

5. Graduates 2010 former education -education 2009

6. Migration -education 2010

7. Population 2011 -education 2011

8. Participation rates by education

9. Workforce 2011 - education2011

Reiterating procedure

Modeling demand1. Population and employment forecast

2. Economic development according To economic branch forecast 2012 -

3. Demand for labour by industry4. Assumptions on occupational

structure by industry5. Demand for labour by industry and occupation

6. Assumptions on educational structure by occupation

7. Demand for labour by occupation and education

8. Demand for labour by education

Gainfully employed 1985-2030, age 16-74 Forecast and zero option from 2007, thousands

Thousands

Outcome

ForecastZero option

Forecast

Level of Education by sexage 20-64, 1990-2030

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Tuse

ntal

Eftergymn.

Gymnasial

Förgymnasial

1990 2007 2030Kv M Kv M Kv M

1990Female Male

2011Female Male

2030 Female Male

Post Sec.

Secondary

Compulsory

Thou

sand

s

Supply and demand for labour 1990-2030By educational level

Thousands

Supply

Demand

FORECAST 2007-2030

Compulsory

Post secondary

Secondary

Post secondary,

GAINFULLY EMPLOYED1990-2006 Post Secondary

without completion

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gymnasial utbildning

Eftergymnasial utb. examen

Förgymnasial utb.

Demand

Supply

Förvärvsarbetande 1990-2010

ForecastDemand

Supply

Thousands

Demand

Supply

Future developments within industry and occupation

• By industryIncreased empl.:

• Public services• Private services• Construction

Decreased empl.:

• Agriculture and forestry• Industry

• By occupation Increased empl.:

• Health• Engineering• Economists• Construction

Decreased empl.: • Services, without

educational requirements • Industrial trades

Supply and demand 2030 by field of education

0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200

Tjänster

Hälso- o sjukvård, social oms.

Lant-och skogsbruk

Teknik och tillverkning

Naturvetenskap, data

Ekonomi, samhällsv., handel

Humaniora och konst

Lärarutbildning

Allmän inriktning

Tusental

EfterfråganTillgång

General studies

Pedagogic and teacher training

Humanities and arts

Social sciences, business and law

Science, math and computing

Technology and manufacturing

Agriculture and forestry

Health and welfare

Services

DemandSupply

Thousands

2011 Trends and Forecasts Conclusions

We need more:• Healthcare• Engineering and technical/industrial educated (Secondary)• Teaching with orientation towards young children

We need fewer:• Humanities and arts• Business (Post-Secondary educated)• General education• Teaching with orientation towards older children