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8/6/2019 TW 23 05 11

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20 May 2011

Retail Research

TECHNICAL WATCH By Dr. Nazri Khan, MSTA, CFTe

03-2145 [email protected]

Today’s Technical Highlights

Local Market Highlights – FBMKLCI (Buy On Weakness) An Attempt To Break 1,550 Resistance Level

Price Catalyst Highlights (Bullish Bias)Expect More Strength

Global Indices Highlights (Bullish Near Term) Another Positive Session

Sector Highlights – Industrial Product Sector (Bullish Near Term)Bounced Higher

Stocks Highlights – RHBCap Berhad (Buy)Technical Breakout

Special Trade Highlights – Gold Futures (Buy)Trends Higher

Table Highlights (Bullish Near Term) A Broad Based Rally

Bursa Malaysia

KLCI 52-wk range 1,574.49 - 1,248.94

Mkt Cap (RM bn) 1,306.32

Vol (mshrs) 1,007.68

Value (RMm) 1,256.80

KLCI futures (spot) CLOSED

KLCI futures (1-mth) 1,526.50

KLCI Index (12- mth)

Top 5 Gainers

Price (RM) chg (RM) %chgF&N 18.38 0.68 3.8

DIGI 29.60 0.52 1.8

NESTLE 48.40 0.42 0.9

PANAMY 23.00 0.30 1.3

SHANG 2.90 0.22 8.2

Top 5 Losers

Price (RM) chg (RM) %chg

MBSB 1.90 unch 0.0

MISC 7.50 (0.30) (3.8)

GENTING 11.42 (0.18) (1.6)

PETDAG 15.30 (0.18) (1.2)

TCHONG 4.54 (0.14) (3.0)

Top 5 Value Traded

Price (RM) chg (RM) Val (RMm)

SIME 9.00 (0.02) 100.1

CIMB 8.19 unch 72.2

AXIATA 4.93 0.03 62.7

AIRASIA 3.00 0.13 58.8

PCHEM 7.22 (0.01) 45.5

Key Equity Indices

C lose % chg Y td chg (%)

KLCI 1,531.47 (0.23) 0.8

Dow J ones 12,807.51 0.00 10.6

Nasdaq 2,841.62 (0.78) 7.1

FTSE100 6,082.88 0.21 3.1

East. Europe 2,387.22 (0.44) 2.6

M exico 35,873.21 (1.97) (6.9)

Shenzen B 1,214.12 1.12 (5.9)

Shanghai B 2,932.19 0.71 4.4

Hong Kong 23,633.25 (0.37) 2.6

Korea 2,200.73 (1.27) 7.3

Singapore 3,153.57 (0.83) (1.1)

Indonesia 3,813.87 (0.92) 3.0

Philippines 4,319.37 (0.17) 2.8

Thailand 1,070.43 (2.12) 3.6

Vietnam CLOSED CLOSED (0.9)

India 18,534.69 (3.14) (9.6)

Taiwan 8,946.08 (0.69) (0.3)

1,200.00

1,250.00

1,300.00

1,350.00

1,400.00

1,450.00

1,500.00

1,550.00

1,600.00

May -10 Aug- 10 Nov -10 Feb-11 Ma y- 11

mailto:[email protected]


8/6/2019 TW 23 05 11


1. LOCAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS – An Attempt To Break 1,550 Resistance Level : Buy On Weakness

FBMKLCI DAILY CHART – Sets To Fly Higher

The FBMKLCI made a flat daily candle but a good weekly follow through hammer with a decent gain on the last few days and abig gap yesterday. We can see that the consumer sector led the charge last week with FBMKLCI jumping over 2%. The dailychart shows three bullish features namely the hammer, upside gap and flag breakout. With this move, the FBMKLCI is nowtesting the early April high of 1,550. Yesterday's big gap marks the first zone to watch. Strong moves and 1,530-1,535 gapsshould hold. On a closing basis, support is set at 1,520, which is just below the open of the hammer. The oscillator indicator also shows MACD turning back up and moving above its signal line. MACD is also positive. Ability to hold this signal-linecrossover and a move above zero would be bullish for more upside momentum. Even though the major indices surged towardstheir early April highs, the technology and industrial sector remains a major laggard as it trades near its mid March low. There ispossibly some support at hand from the mid March low, but there are certainly no signs of selling pressure. In fact, we see signsof rising volume to indicate more accumulation soon. Overall, traders should start accumulating on dips as market is expectedto have deeper upside in the near future.

FBMKLCI Price 1531.47, -3.48, -0.23%

Volume 10,073 mn shares, RM 1,247 mn

Breadth 255 Advancers 519 Decliners

Support Levels 1,530 and 1,500

Resistance Levels 1,550 and 1,560

FBMKLCI Technical Call Buy

Best Sector To Buy Industrial Product Sector (Bullish Near Term)

Best Stock To Buy RHBCap (Buy)

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2. PRICE CATALYST HIGHLIGHTS – Expect More Strength : Bullish Bias

1:00am JPY BOJ Monthly Report3:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI3:00am EUR French Flash Services PMI3:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI3:30am EUR German Flash Services PMI4:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI4:00am EUR Flash Services PMI11:00pmNZD Inflation Expectations q/q

3. GLOBAL INDICES HIGHLIGHTS – Another Positive Session : Bullish Near Term

FBMKLCI – 20 MA Line Broken : Bullish

Our View : Bullish near term but a break above 1,550 support level suggests a confirmed upleg with more upside ahead in thelocal broad market.Our Preference : Long positions above 1,500 with 1,600 as the next target.Alternative Scenario : The downside penetration of 1,500 will call for sell towards 1,450.

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USA DOW JONES – Sets To Fly Higher : Bullish

Our View : Bullish near term with a breakout from 11,000 range with a spotted bullish white candle.Our Preference: Long positions above 12,000 with 13,000 as the next target.Alternative Scenario: The downside penetration of 10,000 will call for a short towards 9,600.

JAPAN NIKKEI – Risk Taking Appetite : Bearish

Our View : Bearish near term reinforced by a close below the 10,000 support level.Our Preference: Given the strong decline from 10,000 support level, we favour a downside move towards 8,000 as the next

targets.Alternative Scenario: A break above 10,000 would invalidate our bearish scenario. The index could then move back to 12,000.

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HONG KONG HANG SENG – Key Reversal Day : Bullish

Our View : Bullish near term with a spotted long white candle above 22,000 support level.Our Preference: Only the downside breakdown of 22,000 will invalidate our bullish scenario. In this case, a rally should shapetowards 26,000.Alternative Scenario: Once 22,000 support is broken, a decline towards 20,500 seems likely.

AUSTRALIA ASX – Crossing Moving Averages : Bullish

Our View : Despite weakness near term, still healthy with a positive moving average crossover.

Our Preference: Long positions above 4,500 with 5,100 as next targets.Alternative Scenario: The downside penetration of 4,500 will call for short towards 4,300.

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CHINA SHANGHAI COMPOSITE – Three White Soldier Candles : Bullish

Our View : Bullish near with a series of three white bullish candle above 2,700.Our Preference: An upside penetration of 2,700 would call for a follow through rally towards 3,200.Alternative Scenario: The crucial 2,700 psycho support must be broken to the downside to allow a potential break towards2,500 target level.

INDIA SENSEX INDEX – Breaking Out : Bullish

Our View : More strength as a long white candle has appeared after breaking from the crucial 50 moving average.

Our Preference: An upside penetration of 18,400 would call for a rally towards 20,500.Alternative Scenario: Once 18,400 support level is broken, a break towards 16,500 is possible as the next psycho support level.

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4. SECTORS HIGHLIGHTS – Industrial Product Sector Bounced Higher : Bullish Near Term

Following the strong uptrend since October 2010, the industrial product sector finally take a breather after breaking out from thepsycho resistance at 115.00. Given that the solid breakout comes with a huge accumulation volume, the sector is now poised totest 125.00 resistance level. Any weakness is therefore a buy on dip. The sector currently shows a temporary corrective patternwith negative MACD and declining Stochastics which suggest a near term downside. The higher smart funds volume basicallyunderscores its leadership qualities and bottom picking activities, calling for 130.00 as the long term upside target for the sector

index. Despite the short term broad market weakness condition, we are still optimistic on the long term picture of the sector dueto its robust medium term technical picture.

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5. STOCK HIGHLIGHTS – RHBCap Breaks RM9.00 Resistance Line : Buy

RHBCap – A Fresh All Time High Scored This Week

Given the ETP hype and the strong performance of the banking sector, we are not surprised to see RHBCap extending itspositive momentum by breaking out from the four months consolidation resistance line, triggering a strong uptrend early thisweek. The surge above RM8.00 marked the first part of the advance which is yet to go into an overbought situation ever since.

Since this surge, the stock has worked its way higher after having a solid twelve months uptrendline. Many strong whitecandlesticks have formed with an up pointing MACD firmly in positive territories since the last two weeks. A break above thepsychological resistance at RM10.00 would argue for a rally towards immediate resistance around RM11.00. Currently, thestock looks strong in its bull zone with more upside momentum towards RM11.00 and RM12.50 in the near future.

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6. SPECIAL TRADE HIGHLIGHTS – Gold Futures Sets To Correct : Buy On Weakness

Gold futures prices at the Global Exchange (GLOBEX) flew higher and notched an all time high of USD1,576 last week. Giventhat, the recent price action has been bullish, from a technical perspective as the parabolic curve has more upside on the dailychart. This month, the precious metal futures prices have decisively penetrated above USD1,500 psychological resistance witha broken 20 weekly moving average. This week however we saw the yellow metals broke back below 1,500 support levelsuggesting a deeper correction near term. The gold futures are ripe to dip to the next support level of 1,450 which we believe agood buying opportunity on weakness. The next upside near-term price objective for the gold bulls is to produce a close aboveimmediate resistance at the USD1,550 level. Once USD1,550 resistance is broken, our preferred view is for the bulls to rallytowards USD1,600 within months. A downside penetration of USD1,400 would call for a decline towards USD1,300 whichremains as an alternative view at this moment.

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7. TABLE HIGHLIGHTS – A Broad Based Rally : Bullish Near Term

FAVOURITE BUY STOCKS

Stocks TechnicalCall

LastPrice

Target StopLoss

S1 S2 R1 R2 Remark

RHBCap Buy xx 12.50 7.90 9.00 8.00 11.00 12.50 Solid uptrendline

APFT Buy xx 2.00 0.85 1.00 0.90 1.50 2.00 Bullish ascending triangle breakout

TradeWinds

Buy xx 9.50 7.50 7.60 7.00 8.80 9.50 Bullish range breakout

PressMetals


QLResources

Buy xx 4.00 2.65 3.00 2.70 3.50 4.00 Bullish parabolic curve

Hong Leong

Bank


MediaChinese

Buy xx 3.00 0.90 1.00 0.70 2.50 3.00 Bullish cup and handlebreakout

F&N Buy xx 20.00 15.90 17.50 16.00 19.00 20.00 Solid uptrendline

UMLand Buy xx 2.50 1.45 1.70 1.50 2.30 2.50 Solid uptrendline

Mamee Buy xx 5.00 3.65 4.00 3.70 4.50 5.00 Bullish range breakout

Karambunai


SPSetia Buy xx 7.50 5.70 6.40 5.80 7.00 7.50 Solid uptrendline

Century Software

Buy xx 2.50 1.15 1.20 1.00 2.00 2.50 Bullish ascending triangle breakout

MMHE Buy xx 8.00 5.60 6.00 5.70 7.50 8.00 Bullish ascending triangle breakout

WTK Buy xx 2.20 0.95 1.20 1.00 2.00 2.20 Bullish ascending

triangle breakout Cypark Buy xx 3.50 1.75 2.20 2.00 3.00 3.50 Bullish parabolic curve

Nestle Buy xx 52.00 41.50 44.00 42.00 50.00 52.00 Solid uptrendline

PetChem Buy xx 7.50 5.95 6.40 6.00 7.00 7.50 Bullish ascending triangle breakout

TDM Buy xx 4.00 2.40 2.50 2.00 3.40 4.00 Bullish parabolic curve

Hartalega Buy xx 7.00 4.79 5.80 4.80 6.50 7.00 Bullish ascending triangle breakout

PetronasDagangan


Sunway Buy xx 3.00 1.60 2.00 1.70 2.40 3.00 Bullish ascending triangle breakout

MAHB Buy xx 7.50 5.70 5.80 5.20 7.00 7.50 Bullish ascending triangle breakout

MRCB Buy xx 2.50 1.10 1.40 1.20 1.80 2.50 Solid upchannellineFajar Buy xx 2.40 0.90 1.15 1.00 2.00 2.40 Bullish parabolic curve

E&O Buy xx 2.00 0.90 1.30 1.00 1.70 2.00 Bullish ascending triangle breakout

UMW Buy xx 8.50 6.60 7.00 6.70 7.80 8.50 Bullish flag breakout Dialog Buy xx 3.00 2.00 1.40 1.20 1.80 3.00 Bullish parabolic curve

UEMLand Buy xx 3.00 1.90 2.00 1.80 2.50 3.00 Bullish rectanglebreakout

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SPECIAL TRADE

FuturesInstrument

TechnicalCall

LastPrice(USD)

Target StopLoss

S1 S2 R1 R2 Remark

Gold Futures

Buy xx 1,600 1,290 1,400 1,300 1,550 1,600 Bullish parabolic curve

CoffeeFutures


CanadianDollar Futures

Buy xx 1.1000 0.9490 1.0000 0.9500 1.0500 1.1000 Solid uptrendline

Lumber Futures

Buy xx 280.00 219.00 220.00 200.00 250.00 280.00 Bullish symmetrical triangle

10 Year Bond

Futures

Buy xx 128.00 121.90 124.00 122.00 125.00 128.00 Solid uptrendline

AustralianDollar Futures


SoybeanFutures


Heating Oil Futures


EuroFutures

Buy xx 1.5000 1.3990 1.4000 1.3000 1.4500 1.5000 Bullish cup handle pattern

Silver Futures


LOCAL VIEW

Indices Price Technical View

Trading Services 195.14 Bullish

Finance 14025.8 Bullish

Industrial 2766.87 Bullish

Industrial Products 118.96 Bullish

Properties 1090.72 Bullish

Construction 282.36 Bullish

Plantation 7593.18 Bullish

Mining 506.61 Bullish

Technology 17.17 Bearish

Consumer 467.76 Bullish

FBMKLCI 1531.47 Bullish

FBM70 11355.45 Bullish

FBMEmas 10552.00 Bullish

FBMSCap 13022.19 Bullish

GLOBAL VIEW

Indices Price Technical View

Dow Jones Futures 12736 Bullish

S&P 500 Futures 1350.5 BullishNasdaq Futures 2384.5 Bullish

Crude Oil Futures 110.75 Bullish

Gold Futures 1536.6 Bullish

Copper Futures 4.2405 BullishEuro Futures 1.4812 Bullish

British Pound Futures 1.6475 BearishUSDMYR Spot 2.97 Bearish

CPO Futures 3360.0 Bearish

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FBMKLCI Futures 1532.0 Bearish

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This report is intended for information purposes only and has been prepared by Affin Investment BankBerhad (“Affin Investment Bank”) based on sources believed to be reliable. However, such sourceshave not been independently verified by Affin Investment Bank, and as such Affin Investment Bankdoes not give any guarantee, representation or warranty (express or implied) as to the adequacy,accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information and/or opinion provided or rendered in thisreport. Under no circumstances shall Affin Investment Bank, its associates and/or any person relatedto it be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but are not limited to anydirect, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profit and damages) arising from the use of or relianceon the information and/or opinion provided or rendered in this report. Any opinions or estimates in thisreport are that of Affin Investment Bank as of this date and subject to change without prior notice.Under no circumstances shall this report be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer tobuy any securities. Affin Investment Bank and/or any of its directors and/or employees may have aninterest in the securities mentioned therein. Affin Investment Bank is a participant of the Capital MarketDevelopment Fund-Bursa Research Scheme, and will receive compensation for the participation.

Investors are advised to seek independent financial, legal and other advice and make their own

evaluation on the information and/or opinion contained in this report before investing or participating inany of the securities or investment strategies or transactions discussed in this report.

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