A Study on Housing Policy Paradigm Shift

for Social and Economic Structural Changes

2011-47

( )

/

/

2-22 / 2011 12 27 / 2011 12 31

254 (431-712)

031-380-0426() 031-380-0114() / 031-380-0474

ISBN978-89-8182-858-5

SE0601

http://www.krihs.re.kr

2011,

.

11-09-01

2011-47

A Study on Housing Policy Paradigm Shift

for Social and Economic Structural Changes

1.

11-09-01

11-09-02

()

2.

()

-

-

-

() -

3.

()

4.

GS

i

P R E F A C E

10 .

,

.

, .

, ,

.

.

.

.

.

.

. , ,

,

ii

.

.

,

.

.

, , ,

, () ,

. , , ,

, .

.

2011 12

iii

S U M M A R Y

1

2010 2010 5 6

.

1 .

,

.

,

.

,

. ,

.

,

2020 .

, 7

,

.

iv

, , ,

,

.

, , ,

,

, 6 .

2

10 ,

.

, , 1

, .

, ,

. , ,

.

2008

, 1 , ,

.

, 12 . 2010

2020

.

v

(65 )

35

54

.

2020 12 ,

.

1990

.

12

1 4

1 2030 ,

65 .

1~2

,

.

, ,

, , ,

.

, , ,

, ,

.

. 4 ,

vi

1

.

.

.

.

1 () , 2030 1

, (80%) (86.5%)

() .

, , ,

, ,

.

.

3

2010 12

,

.

vii

21

.

,

. ,

.

.

,

.

.

. , ,

,

.

Quandt-Andrews

(Pettitt) . ,

2009 , 2018

.

,

.

,

.

, ,

,

.

viii

.

, ,

.

, , ,

2011 43

3 2020 37 2 .

2011 9 4,

27 5, 6 4, 2020 11 4, 19

2, 6 6 .

2011 60 19 7, 60

85 12 9, 85 10 6, 2020 60 17 9, 6085

11 1, 85 8 2 .

. ,

. ,

.

, ,

, , ,

.

, ,

, , ,

ix

, ,

.

, ,

, , ,

.

.

,

.

, ,

.

4

.

, , ,

.

.

, ,

.

, .

x

, .

,

.

.

,

.

. ,

,

.

,

. ,

,

.

, .

, , ,

, ,

. , ,

.

5

. 2008

xi

100% ,

, .

,

.

,

, 2020

,

, .

3 ,

, ,

, , ,

.

7

, ,

.

,

, ,

.

, ,

, ,

,

.

xii

(100 ) ,

.

,

, ,

, ,

.

, .

, .

6

,

.

. ,

(barometer)

.

,

.

,

.

xiii

, .

, .

, ,

.

.

- 2, 5, 9,

62

- 2, 6, 20

- 55, 46

- 7(

)

, , ,

,

,

.

, ,

.

C O N T E N T S

1

1. 1

2. 3

1) 3

2) 4

3) 5

3. 7

1) 7

2) 9

4. 12

1) 12

2) 13

2

1. 15

1) 15

2) 17

3) 21

2. 26

1) 26

2) 35

3. 43

1) 43

2) 51

4. 55

1) 55

2) 56

3) 61

5. 62

3

1. 65

1) 65

2) 66

2. 71

1) 71

2) 2020 73

3. 78

1) 78

2) 80

3) 85

4. 96

1) 96

2) 97

3) 97

4

1. 101

1) 101

2) 103

2. 108

1) 108

2) 110

3. 114

1) 114

2) 117

3) 118

4. 119

5

1. 2020 121

1) 121

2) 123

2. 124

1) 124

2) 126

3) 132

4) 140

5) 142

6) 146

7) 148

6

1. 151

2. 153

1) 153

2) 156

3. 160

161

SUMMARY 163

165

T A B L E C O N T E N T S

11

23

26

29

32

12 39

43

86

88

90

91

92

93

94

95

99

() 103

104

(2002~2003) 117

(age mix) 154

155

186

187

188

( ) 189

2011 () 190

2020 () 191

192

193

194

195

F I G U R E C O N T E N T S

6

: 14

16

17

22

25

27

29

(65 ) 31

(15~64) 33

3040 34

36

1 37

41

1 42

44

46

46

(2 ) 47

19861990 2006 ( ) 51

57

58

67

67

67

68

68

Quandt-Andrews 69

70

(3554) 74

HD11 83

85

87

( 1) 88

90

91

93

94

100

102

109

() 128

130

() () 131

156

2020 158

1 1

1C H A P T E R 1

2010 2010 5 6

. 1

. ,

.

,

. , ,

, .

.

1.

2000

10

.

, , ,

, ,

,

.1)

2

.

.

.

, 12

, , 2008

.

.

,

.

,

.

,

.

, ,

,

.

1)

. , , (normal)

, , ,

, (new normal) .

( 2011.9.17

Occupy Wall Street )

.

1 3

,

,

.

, ,

, ,

.

,

.

, , ,

,

.

2.

1)

21

.

.

,

, 20 30

.

,

2020 .

4

, 7

,

.

, , ,

,

.

, ,

.

2)

(1)

.

.

(2)

. ,

2010

,

2006 2008 .

(3)

,

KRIHS() ,

.

1 5

(4)

2500, 2030 1 200

.

1 , .

,

.

(5)

.

.

. , ,

.

2005, 2010 ,

.

.

3)

6 . 1 2

,

6

, , ,

. 3 4

,

. 5

,

.

1 7

3.

1)

, , ,

.

, ,

, ,

.

(1)

(2007) , (2007)

, (2003)

, (1998)

, (1991) .

(2007)

(cohort effect) ,

.

.

(2007)

,

. (1998)

, .

8

(1998)

, , , ,

, .

(1991) 1990

,

.

(2)

. (2007) 1

, (2007) ,

(2000) .

(2007) 1 1

.

1 , 1

1 .

(2000)

2 .

.

(3)

(2008)

, (2007)

, (2006)

.

1 9

(2008)

, . ,

.

(2007) ,

.

(2006)

, , .

.

(4)

(2010)

. (2010)

, , ,

.

2)

(1)

2020

,

.

, ,

,

.

10

(2)

2020 ,

,

.

, , , ,

.

(3)

,

, ,

.

,

.

(4)

,

.

, ,

.

,

, , 1 ,

.

1 11

1

: (1991)

1990

2

: (2007)

2000

,

3

: (2007)

(2003 ~ 2012)

4

: (2007)

,

,

12

4.

1)

() ,

()

() . .

(structural break)

()

.

, , ,

,

(, 2009).

.

, .

(, , ,

, ) .2)

, , ,

. ,3) (

2) .

(Quandt-Andrews , ): 2005

2018 . 0.5%(05), 0.0%(19)

: (05), (18)

1 : 20% (05), 28.3%(20), 30.6%(30)

: 2 (07, 21651)

: 100% (08, 100.2%)

1 13

)

.

.

2)

(1)

,

(paradigm)

, , ' .4)

' .

.

.

(paradigm shift)

,

.

,

3) () ,

,

,

( ).

4) (Thomas Kuhn) (1962) ', ,

' .

( ).

14

.

,

.

(2)

. , ,

,

.

,

.

,

,

, ,

.

,

,

.

:

2 15

2C H A P T E R 2

2008

, 1 , ,

. , ,

. ,

,

. 1 ,

.

, ,

.

.

1.

1)

10 ,

.

, , 1 ,

.

,

1990 7580% 2000 90%, 2008

100% 2010 101.9% .5)

16

2000 1147.2 2010 1467.7 ,

320 . 2000

473.1 2010 656.5 139% .

. 2010 2005 330.4

10%(33) 363.8( )

.

,

2000 2.3%(26.9) 2009 4.7%(68.3)

.

. 1 2000 20.2

2010 25 23.8% ,

2000 23.4%(334.4) 2010 8.5%(146.2

) .6)

5) 1995 86.0% 2000 96.2%, 2002 100.6% 100% , 2010

112.9% .

6) 2010 () .

2 17

2)

(1)

2008

,

.

, 7) .

14%(19861990) 1%(19911997), 7%(1999

2007) 1.9%(2010) . ,

, ,

.

.8)

7) , 1987 2/4 4

, . 2001 1/4 1~2

6 2, 7 1, 3 4 3( H-P ) .

8) 2004 2006 2008

, . 2008

.

18

45% , 2010

. 28%(19861990)

6.2%(19911997), 4.6%(19992007) 7.1%(2010) ,

16.4%(2001) -5.0%(2004), 1.7%(2008) 3.4%(2009)

.9)

2000

, 2003 175 5%

. 5.6 , 0.9,

0.7 , 2000 8.4% 2005

10.8%, 2010 7.1% .10)

(2)

2000 1147( 473) 2010 1467.7(

656.5) 50% .

5010

9) 2010

. ,

.

(decoupling)

2010 1.9%( 2.5%) , 7.1%( 8.8%)

. ,

-1.7%( -2.9%) , 6.3%( 7.2%)

(decoupling) .

1990 .

1995 -0.2% . 19911997 1%(

-0.7% ) , 6.2%

.

200 5 526(214+312)

, .

10) ( ,

).

2 19

2000 26.9( 2.3%) 2005 35.8( 2.7%),

2009 68.3( 4.7%) .

,

34.6%(2003), 17.7%(2006), 6.6%(2003)

. 2000

.

1990 55 2000 49

1990 6

. 20012010 25.6,

23.2 .

20002010 (6085) 43%,

(60) 31%, (85) 26% . 85

2002 2009

. 42%,

34%, 24% .11)

2001 2010

75.3% . , 2006 5

78.8%

.12)

.

11) 2004 10 . 2002

,

.

12) 2009 70%

.

20

(3)

100%

. 13) ,

2010 101.9% 100% ,

(99.0%) 100% .

100% , 111.4%(2008), 115.2%(2008),

106.1%(2007) .

2010 363.8(

), 2005 314.7 2010 342.9 .

2000 249( 222)

2010 302( 275) .

410(2010), 451(2008), 439(2009)

.

1 2000 20.2 2005 22.8 2.6(13%)

, 2010 25 05 9.6% . 74.3(09),

42.3(08), 44(01) 3060% .

2000 334 2005

206 128 (38.4%) , 2010 8.5%

.

(K-HAI) 2010 12 68.5 2008 80.8

12.3p . , 2008 12 125.1 2010 12 102.1

23.0p , 150% .

57.3(10), 35('10) , 2008

.

13) 1 , .

2 21

.

.

3) 14)

(1)

2006 41.8% 2010 47.1%

, 2006 44.5% 2010 40.4%

. 2010 53.0%, 48.3%,

41.4% .

.

2010

72.4%, 53.1%, 26.6%

.

.

(2)

2006 55.6% 2010 54.3%

. 2000 2005

54.2% 55.6% , 2010

1.4%p 54.2% .15)

2006 50.2% 2010 46.6% 3.6%p ,

. , 2006 2010

54.8% 56.6%, 63.8% 64.2% .

14) .

15) 66.9%, 68.9%, 73.5%, 68.3% 6570% .

22

,

.

2006 22.4% 2010 21.7% ,

( ) 2006 17.3% 2010 20.1%

.

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

2006 2010 2006 2010 2006 2010 2006 2010

,

2006 2010 49.7% 46.7%, 55.3% 54.2%

, 67.0% 69.5% .

20.3% 25.8%, 14.2% 17.1%

.

(3)

( PIR) 2006 4.2

2010 4.3 . PIR

2006 5.7 2010 6.9 .

2 23

( RIR) 2006 18.7%

2010 19.2% . RIR 1%p

, 2006 19.9% 2010 20.9% .

2006 ,

PIR RIR

.

,

.

16)

( : , %)

PIR RIR

() ()

2006 4.2(6.0) 18.7(22.9)

2010 4.3(5.6) 19.2(23.1)

2006 5.7(8.1) 19.9(25.3)

2010 6.9(9.2) 20.9(26.4)

: = () / ()

= () / ()

: . . .

(4)

5 2006

2010 53.6% 50.2% 3.4%p . 5

16) * : , , 2006 10 , 0.99% , 2008

10 , 0.98%

* .

* LTV .

24

2006 2010 63.6% 57.1% 6.5%p

, 5~10, 10~20, 20

17.4% 20.8%, 14.5% 15.6%, 4.6% 6.4%

.

2006 7.7 2010 7.9 0.2

. 2006 5.3 2010 6.2 1

, 7.2 7.5 0.3 . ,

2006 11.3 2010 10.6

.

5

2006 2010 46.3% 44.4% , 5~10, 20

15.6% 17.3%, 17.8% 18.5% .

5 6%p

, 5~10, 10~20, 20

.

, 2006 2010 5

35.1% 30.1%, 76.7% 74.1%

. 2006 2010 5~10, 10~20, 20

22.1% 24.1%, 25.7% 27.6%, 17.2%

18.2% .

5 2008

,

.

,

.

2 25

(5)

2006 8.1 2010 8.5

0.4 . 2006 7.9 2010 9.0

1.1 .

2006 8.6 2010 8.9 0.3 , 8.0

7.5 0.5 . 2006 2010

.

2006 8.07 7.90 8.60 7.98

2010 8.48 9.01 8.94 7.53

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

, 2006

2010 10.3 , 7.3

8.1, 6.1 7.0 .

.

(6)

2000 2006

22.2% 2010 30.9% ,

26

. 2000 ,

2000

. 1990

,

.

( : %)

2000 1990 1980 1970 19601959

2006 22.20 42.45 21.10 7.77 2.40 4.08 100.00

2010 30.89 39.38 18.45 6.23 2.54 2.51 100.00

2006 26.80 43.34 21.82 5.96 1.05 1.03 100.00

2010 35.06 38.91 19.48 4.63 1.23 0.69 100.00

2006 16.36 44.83 24.04 9.81 2.61 2.36 100.00

2010 27.39 39.24 22.58 7.17 2.20 1.42 100.00

2006 19.26 39.64 18.15 9.10 4.23 9.61 100.00

2010 26.83 40.19 14.17 8.05 4.77 5.99 100.00

: . . .

2.

1)

, 12 . 2010

2020

.17)

17) 2019 , 2030 .

2 27

(1)

. 1990 4341 2000 4614 , 2010 4858

. (2011) 2020 4970

, 2030 4922 .

, 1990 0.6% 2000 0.5%, 2010 0.2%

, 2020 -0.1% .

,

18) .

: 1. . 2010 (). 2011.5.31.

2. . . 2011.6.21.

2010 , 2010 4858 2005

4728 130 . 4888

18) 1995 30 5 . 30~34 1995,

2000, 2005 6.7%, 10.5%, 19.0%, 35~39 3.3%, 4.1%, 7.6% .

(

. . 2011. p.17).

28

(, 2007) 294 19)

.

.20) (, 2007) 2005 4814

2010 4888 74 (1.5%) ,

2005 130 (2.8%) .

(2019) ,

.21)

1980 1.53% 1990 0.99%, 2000 0.84%

2005 0.21% 2019 0.0% 2020 -0.02%(, 2007)

. UN(World Population Prospects, 2011) 2030

, 20302035

-0.11% .

20052010 1.31.4%

, 0.9% .

2010 , 2384 2005 2277

4.7% .

(2007) 2434 50

2000

. 2000 40 2005 44 ,

2010 50 .

19) 2005 2010 90 ,

75 (2000 87 ,

.

11 1 , 7 1 ).

20) 2000 15.1 2005 23.8 , 2010 59 .

21) 2020 4970 ,

5 (. p.297).

2 29

49.1%( 49.8%)

2005 48.2% 0.9%p .

1990 42.8% 2000 46.3%, 2010 49.1% .

, 2030

.

(2011) 2020 2603

, 2030 .22)

2020 2603 ( 52.4%) 2030 2715 (55.2%)

, 1990 1.4% 2000

1.1%, 2010 0.9% 20 0.4% .

( : )

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

4,341 4,614 4,858 4,970 4,922

1,859 2,135 2,384 2,603 2,715

: 1. . . .

2. . . 2011.

: 1. . . .

2. . . 2011.

22) . . p.299.

30

(2)

, .

35 . 1995

(10 ) .

35 2423 (2000) 2152 (2010), 1851 (2020)

. 2010 35 2000

6.4%(74 ) , 15.7%(197 )

.

,

. 1980 2.83

2010 1.22 .23) 1.29

(2004), 2.05(2004), 1.79(2005) OECD

.

, 65 . 2010 542

11.3% , 2005 437 24.3%(106 )

. 2010 536 6

, 2020

770 .

(2011) 2010 526

2020 734 . 2010 , 2010

7% .

2010 11.3% 2018 14.3%

, 2026 20.8% ()24) .

23) 1 .

2.83(1980) 1.59(1990), 1.47(2000) 1.22(2010).

24) 14% , 20% .

24 12, 72, 16

18 8 .

2 31

2000 35.3%(119 ) 2010

39.8%(216 ) , 2020 44.8%(329 )

. 2000 52

2010 100 , 2020 159 .

2000 54 2010 93 , 2020 135

.

,

.

,

.

: 1. . 2010 (). 2011.5.31.

2. . . 2011.

(65 )

, . 1970

2010 , 2005

, , .

, 1970 28.3%

2005 48.2%, 2010 49.0% .

32

23.4%, 20.2%, 5.4%

. (9.3%),

(7.3%), (5.2%) , (-4.3%), (-3.1%)

.

.

(2011) ,

2020

50% .

.

.

, . 2010 3982 ,

876 2005 3.4%(131 ) , 0.1%(7 )

. , 1990 74.4%

(3231 ) 2000 79.7%(3676 ), 2010 82.0%(3982 ) .

1990 25.6%(1110 ) 2000 20.3%(938 ), 2010 18.0%

(876 ) . ,

.

( : )

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

3231 3504 3676 3851 3982

1110 957 938 876 876

: 1990

: . . .

, .

(1564) 2010 3478 2015 3664

2020 3615 .25)

2 33

2010 2005(3369 ) 3.2% ,

(3561 ) 83 . 35

, 55 .

35 2000 59.1% 2010 51.3%, 2020 44.6%

, 55 2000 11.8% 2010 14.2% , 2020

21.7% .

.

.

, 2000 47.4%

(1506 ) 2010 50.2%(1748 ) , 2020 53.5%(1933

) . , 2000 52.6%(1669 ) 2010 49.8%

(1730 ) , 2020 46.5%(1682 ) .

: 1. . 2010 (). 2011.5.31.

2. . . 2011.

(15~64)

25) (2007) (15~64) 2016 3619 2020 3551

.

34

, 3554

2012 . 3554 1970

1990 2010 1610

.

2010 1610 (1655 )

45 . (2011)

2015 1661 2020 1599

. 2006 3040

, .

: . . 2009.

3040

, .

2010 59 ( 1.2%), 2005 35

. 1990 0.04%(2 ) 1995

0.1%(6 ), 2000 0.3%(15 ) 2005 0.5%(24 ) .

2 35

63.9% 38 ,

, .

31.1%(18 ), 27.6%(16 ), 6.9%(41 )

. ,

.

5.0%(3 ),

3.7%(2.2 ), 3.0%(1.8 ), 2.7%(1.6 )

. ( ) 52.7% ,

.

() 35.0%(21 ), 15.8%(9 ), 10.1%(6 ),

7.1%(4 ), 4.2%(3 ) .

2)

(1)

2020 12 ,

. 2010 , 2010

1757 2005 1599 159 (9.9%)

. 1715 (, 2007)

422 .

,

. 1990 1136 2000 1439 , 2010 1757

, 1990 2.4% 2010 1.4%

. 1990 2.4% 2000 2.0%, 2010 1.4%

.

,

. 2010 842 2005

36

753 88 (11.7%) ,26)

1990 2.8% 2000 2.6%, 2010 1.9% .

,

. 1990 643 ( 56.7%) 2010

915 (52.1%) , .

(2011) 2020 2010

2030 ,

0.6% .27)

: . . .

.

1990 4341 2010 4858 517 (11.9%) ,

1990 0.6% 2010 0.2% . ,

1990 1136 2010 1757 621 (54.6%)

. 1990 2.4% 2010 1.4%

26) 1990 492 ( 43.3%) 2000 650 (45.4%), 2010 842

(47.9%) , .

27) . . p.304.

2 37

,

. 12

.

1990

. 2010 2.69 2.85

0.16 .

2000 3.12 2005 2.88, 2010 2.69

.

(2011) 2020 2.39

2010 0.3 , 2030 2.23

.28)

: . . .

1

. 2010

2.78 2000 3.28 0.5

28) . . p.307.

38

. 1990 3.78

2000 3.28, 2005 3.04 2010 2.78 .

(2011) 2020

2.49 2010 0.29 .

,

.

(2)

, 12 . 12 1990

259 ( 22.8%) 2000 496 (34.6%), 2010 835

(48.2%) . 2000

2.39% 2005 1.59%, 2010 1.39%, 2000 2.01% 2005

2.11%, 2010 1.76% .

2010 , 1980 5 ,

1990 4 2010 2 . 12

1990 2.4% 2010 1.4%

. 2020 12

, 2020

0.6% .

12

,

. ,

.

, 1 . 2010 1

2005 3.9%p 23.9% 20.3%

3.6%p .29)

2 39

1 2030 2020 1 569

( 28.3%) .30) 1 2010 182

(10.4%) 1 44.0% 1

.

1 1990 43 ( 3.8%) 2010 182

(10.4%) , 2020 259 (12.9%) .

1

, ()

.

12 ( : , %)

1990 2000 2010 2020

1 102 222 414 569

43 94 182 259

2 157 273 421 590

61 108 181 275

12

23 35 48 58

21 31 43 53

: 1. . . .

2. . . 2011.

, . 2010

49.0 2005 46.7 2.3

.31)

29) 1 (Census Bureau: 2010 26.7%), (ONS: 2010 29.0%),

(Statistics Bureau: 2010 31.2%), (Statistics Norway: 2011 39.7%), (Series B: 2006

26.4%), (Microcensus: 2005 37.5%).

30) . . p.306.

31) .

1990 42.2 2000 44.5, 2010 49.0 .

40

65 2010 17.9% 2000 5.8%p . 65

1990 96 ( 8.5%) 2000 173

(12.1%), 2010 311 (17.9%) .

(2011) 2020 65

456 ( 22.7%) . 2030 708

33.1%

.

2010 450 ( 25.9%) 2005 349

(21.9%) 4.0%p . 1990 15.7% 2000

18.5%, 2010 25.9% 2000 7.4%p . (2011)

2020 536 26.7%

.

, 4 . 1990

4, 2010 2

. 4 1990 660 ( 58.1%)

2000 637 (44.5%), 2010 530 (30.5%) .

2020 4 430 2010 18.7% ,

2030 341 .32)

4 ,

.

2000 307 2010 275 , 2020 250

, 2000 330 2010 255 , 2020 180

. 4

,

.

32) . . p.306.

2 41

: . . .

, 1 2030 , 65

. 2030 1 2005 131

( 1 41.3%) 2010 155 (38.0%) ,

3.0%p . , 65 2005 78

(24.7%) 2010 107 (25.7%) 1.0%p .

1 . 2010

2030 1 121 (34.9%), 65 1 102

(29.4%) .

(2011) 2020 65 1 1

27.0%(154 ) 2010 1.3%p . 2030 1

2020 204 2010 49

1 35.8% 2010 2.2%p .

2030 1 ,

1 .

42

: 1. . . .

2. . . 2011.

1

, . 2010

, 39 2.2%

.

1 .

94 50 (53.1%), 44 (46.9%)

6.2%p .

1 12 (30.5%), 2 23 (59.7%),

4 (9.8%) . 1

1 (23.9%) 6.6%p .

59.6% ,

22.6%, 5.3% .

48.8% , 20.4%, 17.7%

.33)

33) (54.2%) 33.8%p .

2 43

( : , %, )

1 11.8 (30.5%) 11.8 7.2 4.6

2 23.1 (59.7%) 71.6 34.6 37.0

3.8 (9.8%) 10.5 8.1 2.4

38.7 (100%) 93.9 49.9 44.0

: . 2010 . 2011.

3.

1)

(1)

2000 712% .

.

1990 , ,

, 12 , 2

.

7% 2002 7.2%

, 2010 4%

.

. OECD

(2010.5) 20122025

2.4% .

44

,

,

.

(FTA) , OECD

3%

.

,

.

100% ,

.

.

: . . .

2 45

(2)

.

(1999~2002) (2005~2006)

. , 2005~2006 ,

.

2008

. 2003~2010 8 99.8%

2011 6 993 ,

GDP 62.8% .

.

.

2000 81%

2010 146% 65%p .

. 2007

159%, 136%, 112%, 55%

, .

2002 35%

. 2003

2004 12% .

(2011.2.24) 2010 (2 )

() 2.8% . 2006 2.5%, 2008 1.3%, 2009 -1.5%

2010 4 -1.2% .

.

46

949937861802744671602543521

146.1143.0138.8136.4

128.8

120.4113.7

117.8

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2003 2005 2007 2009 11.1Q

400

600

800

1000

1200 ( )

/ ( )

(%) ( )

: ()

(3)

,

. ', '

, 1

5 2006 6.65 2010 7.74 .

2006 16.6% 2010 18.0% .

, ,

, .

.

,

.

,

.

2 47

: 1. 5

2. 50%

:

(2 )

(4)

2010

(19551963 ) 688 ( 14.1%) .

(2011) 637 .

198 .34)

1995 46% 2005 60%

. 16.8 21 25%

.

(2011) 6570

(78%), 55 (1920) ,

. ,

6570

.

34) 7800 (19461964 , 27%), 806 (1947

1949 , 5.4%).

48

(2008) , 75%

21%, 4% ,

. 75%

6771%

.

1 7300 86 ,

1868 .

42.1% OECD 68.4% .

, 63%

. 45% .

, 60 6.6%,

9.9%, 26.6%, 56.6%

. 55.8%, 57.4%

.

.

23 (,

2007). ,

.

, 3

4 ,

. 10

,

.35)

35) . . . 2007. pp.109~120.

2 49

(5)

,

2000 32 . 1990 27.8,

24.8 2010 31.8, 28.9 20 4

. 1980 40.3 2010 32.6

(19801995 ) .

2010 , 30 2005 21.6% 2010

29.2% 7.6%p , 2000 13.4% 2

.

.

.

(6)

,

, , ITBTNT

36) .37) (FT)

.38)

,

.39)

36) ITNTBTETCT FT(Fusion Technology: )

37) . 2020. 2005.

38) 2020 1.6%, 25.2% ,

62.3% (. . 2005).

39) . . 2010.

50

.

, 1 1

.

(2011.4) 2030

1 57.5% .

,

.40)

.41) 20

, 76.5%, 57.3%, 51.5%,

5.9%, 8.9% .42)

,

.

.

.

.

40) . ().

. 2005.

41) . (). . 2010.

42) , IT,

, ( . . 2010.).

2 51

2)

(1)

1970 50.1% 2000 88.3%, 2009 90.8%

2000 .43)

1990 75.3% 2010 82.3%, 1990 78.1% 2010 79.6%,

1990 63.1% 2010 66.8%

.

. ,

1980 , ,

2006 , .

(19861990) (2006)

: 06

: . . 2006.

19861990 2006 ( )

, ,

.

43) .

52

2020

, , 12

.

, .

,

.

(2)

(1564) , 65

, 1

.

,

,

,

.

(smart growth), ,

, ,

.

, , ,

(Mixed-use Development)

.44)

2 53

1 , , , ,

.

,

.

, ,

. ,

,

.

,

.

, , ,

.

.

(3)

12 , ,

.

2010 , 20

2000 158.5(12.7%) 2005 256.7(20.5%) 100

. , 2000 39.7(3.2%) 2005 78.2(6.3%)

2 .

. 2000

2005 8.1% 101 .

44) , , .

54

47.4( 47%)

.

(2011) , 20112020 12

.45) 1990

,

.

.

(4)

.

, , , (), ,

,

.

. ,

.

.

,

.

.

45) 3 .

2 55

.

.

,

,

.

4.

1)

,

.

.

2500, 2030 1

200 2011 4 1 4 8 8 .

, 2030 1

.

,

(CATI; Computer

Aided Telephone Interview) .

56

2)

(1)

,

. (51.0%)

, 25.3%, 10.7%

.

, 40

40 59.8% (30 58.3%) ,

60 50% .

(50 ), ( 500 )

.

10 (46.3%) (43.3%)

, 10

57% .

, 20~30 1 (55%) (34%)

. 2030 1 , 32.5%,

23.5%, 19.0%, 12.0%

.

2007 8 ,

, (68%), 10

(40%) .46)

46) . . . 2007. pp.270~286.

2 57

< > < > < >

(2)

20(36.0%), 30(27.0%),

10(17.7%) . ,

20 .

60

.

2030 1 , 1019 44.5%, 510 34.5%

80% .

, 20 50.0% 510

, 30 53.6% 1019 .

85%

. 85% (45%)

(40%) . 60 15%

, 45%

.

2007 8 30

, 20 , 40 , 2030

.

58

< > < > < >

(3)

, ()

. 84%

, 53% ,

21% . 20 30%

.

84%, 74%, 90%

. 65

.

, 36.0%, 34.0% ,

56.9% .

(4)

, , ,

. (

) (53.9%), (32.8%), (21.9%)

.

2 59

. 20

(52.0%), (39.0%), 30 (47.1%), (38.5%),

40

. 40

.

65 ()

73.5%, 30.2%, 28.3% .

.

(46.8%) (45.1%)

, 50%

.

(5)

.

(90.5%) ,

80% .

2010 (, )

, 83.7%

93.1% . ,

6.3% .

() ?

.

2006 6.9% 2008 0.7%, 2010 1.8%

, 2006 9.9% 2008 1.0%, 2010 2.3% .

60

(6)

,

, .

, 4050 36%

500 28% .

28.6% (35.6%),

(27.5%) .

, 50 24.8%, 60

18.1% .

, 67.6% (35.3%), (15.2%),

(11.9%)

. ,

50.7% ( 28%) 36.5%( 6%)

.47)

(7)

1 ()

, (57.2%) (29.4%), (26.1%)

. 3554 (52.2%) (32.9%),

60.7%, 26.9% .

.

10 61.3% .

3554 68.7%, 55.9%

.

, 43.9% .

47) 6% 10 28% 22%p .

2 61

. 52.2% ,

40% .

61.2% .

. 20 30 70%

. 60.2% ,

77.3% .

3)

1

. 12

, , 2020

.

.

.

,

.

1

() , 2030 1

, (80%) (86.5%)

() .

62

. ,

.

5.

,

,

.

, , ,

, ,

.

.

, .

.

, .

,

, ,

. ,

.

, . 10(20002009)

10%p, 40%

, ( 70%)

.

2 63

. ,

.

.

, .

,

1 , ,

. .

, .

100% ,

.

.

, .

, ,

,

.

.

.

,

,

,

.

3 65

3C H A P T E R 3

2010 12

,

. 21

.

,

. ,

.

.

, .

, ,

.

.

.

1.

1)

.

,

.

66

. , ,

,

.

Quandt-Andrews (Pettitt) ,

(HP; Hodrick-Prescott) .

Quandt-Andrews

Chow

.48) Quandt-Andrews ,

2000 .

(Pettitt)

. ,

.

.

2)

(1) (Pettitt)

.

, 2005, 2013

.

48) Chow

F- .

3 67

, 2000 2008

. , 2000

2009 .

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

() ()

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

-2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00

() ()

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

() ()

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

-1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00

() ()

, 2000 2009

.

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

() ()

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

-20 -15 -10

-5 0 5

10 15 20 25

() ()

68

, 2006 ,

, 2007 .49)

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

() ()

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000

() ()

2000

.50) 2008 ,

100% , , 51)

20062009 .

(2) Quandt-Andrews

. 19862011

, (, ) (, ) 1980

1990 .

20002011 (, )

20042005, 2009 .

49) , .

50) 2000

( . . . 2002).

51) .

. 1987 10

, 1994 1997 , 2000 IT , 2007

.

3 69

20052011 , (, )

2006, (, ) 20092010 .

. Quandt-Andrews 2018,

2005 . Quandt-Andrews 2005

, 2005

2018 .

Quandt-Andrews 2010,

2013 . 2010

.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Quandt-Andrews

(3) (HP)

2007 , 2010

. 2007

.

2009 ,

2009

.

70

-.10

-.05

.00

.05

.10

.15

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 0 0 02 04 06 08 10

HP _NR Trend Cyc le

Hodrick-Prescott Filter (lam bda=1600)

-.15

-.10

-.05

.00

.05

.10

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

JP_NR Trend Cyc le

Hodrick-Prescott Filter (lam bda=1600)

(4)

, ,

, 2000 2005 2009

. , 2008

52) 20062009

.

Quandt-Andrews

2018, 2005 ,

.

Quandt-Andrews 2010,

2013 .

2009 ,

2018

. 100%

52) 2008

,

.

3 71

, ,

,

.

2.

1)

,

. , ,

,

.

,

.

, ,

,

.

.

(1)

, ,

. , ,

, .

72

.

(2)

, , (needs)

,

.

,

,

, .

(3)

, , ,

, ,

.

.

(4)

.

, 1970

,

.

,

, ,

.

3 73

(5)

,

, ,

.

,

.

2) 2020

,

,

, ,

, ,

, ,

.

.

(1)

, , .

,

4 12 .

3554

65 .

,

74

.

(2)

,

1997 2008

.

(3554) 2010, 2011, 2018

, 2009

.

, ,

.

,

.

: . . 2007.

(35~54) ()

3 75

(3)

,

.

,

.

2010 ,

, .

( )

.53)

(4)

20052030 1

, 3

.

12 ,

. ,

, .54)

(5)

, 1 ,

.

53) ,

. (PIR) ,

2005 3.96 2010 5.56, 2005 5.66 2010 7.65, 2005 2.58

2010 6.36, 2005 4.54 2010 6.26 .

54) ,

2007 40% 2011 43.3% .

76

, 1

.55)

,

,56)

.

. ,

.

(6)

, ,

, ,

.57)

, (second house), ,

.

,

.

55) 2006 67.3 2008

69.3, 2010 68.7 , 1 2006 26.2 2008 27.8,

2010 28.5 .

56) (2011.4.) 1

(57.2%) .

57) . 2010

(60% 61%)

2005 55.6% 2010 54.2% 1.4%p . ,

, .

3 77

(7)

, , , ,

,

.58)

,

.

12 ,

. 12

, 2020 .

(8)

,

,

.59)

,

.

.

,

, .

58) (2011.4) , 20 , 30 , 40

, 65 74% .

59) (2011.4) , 60 15%

.

78

() ,

.60)

(9)

,

,

. 1, ,

1 .

,

.

3.

1)

, ,

.

-(Mankiw-Weil , M/W)

.

, M/W

,

.

60) (2005) , 75 86%, 6574 83%

.

3 79

M/W

. M/W

.

.

:

M/W M/W . Swan(1995)

M/W .

,

.

(2005), (2009), (2011)

M/W ,

. .

: ,

: ,

:

(2007) .

=

{ 1 + (100-)/100) }

80

12

, . (2009)

,

. (2011) 1, 2

.

2010 4

346 . 20092010 46

2020 3641 .

(20032012) 2003 43.5 2008

44.9 2012 42.4 .

(2005) 2005 43 2020

36 .

2)

(1)

,

.

.

, .

12

.

,

( 2-1, 2-2 ).

.

3 81

, , .

1

82

,

.

, ,

() .

, , .

.

.

. ,

.

(2)

M/W

(Housing Demands 11 Model; HD11) .

,

Goodman(1988)

.

,

HD11 . M/W

, HD11

. .

: ( : 1)

3 83

, 2010

, , ,

.

) 16 .64)

) 16

.

) .

,

, 2010 ,

.

.

HD11

64) (Hedonic Price Model)

, .

(attributes, characteristics) .

.

, .

.

P , S(Structure), N(Neighborhoods), L(Location) .

h( ) , (hedonic function) .

.

84

.

.

(Goodman, 1988; Hayt and Rosenthal, 1990; Hansen

et al, 1998 ) .

, 2011 3.0% 2020 2.5%

. .

) .

) .

)

.

)

.

.

, (20002010)

. .

) .

)

.

(3) (HD11)

HD11 ,

, ,

, , .65)

3 85

3)

(1)

, ,

. ,

, 1 , 2010

.

,

, ,

,

.

65) .

86

(2)

, , 1

. ,

, 2010

.

, 2011 19

7 2020 10 8 .

, 2011 14 3,

2020 9 3 . 2011 2 2 2020 1 2

, 2011 0 2020 -8 .

2011 7 2020 -2 , 2011 2

4 2020 1 2 . 2011 2 2020 -1

, 2011 2, 2020 1 .

( : )

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

143 136 130 124 119 114 109 104 99 93

22 21 20 19 19 18 16 15 14 12

0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2

24 23 22 20 19 17 16 15 13 12

2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1

2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1

200 189 178 168 158 148 138 129 119 108

3 87

,

, . 2011 3.0%

2020 2.5% . 2010 2

2.8%, (OECD 2020 2.4%

), 2017 .

,

2011 12 3 2020 11 2 .

, 2011 5 7

2020 5 4 , 2011 1 4 2020 1

3 .

2011 1 3 2020 1 1 ,

2011 1 4 2020 1 1 . 2011 2

2020 1 8 , 2011 4 2020 4

.

88

( : )

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

57 57 57 57 57 56 56 55 55 54

14 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 13

13 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 11

14 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 11

20 20 20 20 19 19 19 18 18 18

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

123 122 121 120 119 118 116 115 113 112

( 1)

2020 . ,

3 89

, ,

, , ,

.

2011 20052010

(11) , 20122020 20002010

(15 2) . ,

.

- () ln

- ()=

,

. 2010 45.2%, 2015

20 (2010 1994 )

41% .

, 2011 11

2020 15 2 .

, 2011 5 2020

6 9 , 2011 1 2 2020 1 51

7 .

2011 1 3 2020 1 8 ,

2011 1 2 2020 1 7 . 2011 1 8

2020 2 5 , 2011 4 2020

5 .

90

( : )

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

50 51 53 55 57 59 61 64 66 69

12 13 13 14 14 14 15 16 16 17

13 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 18

12 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 17

18 19 19 20 21 21 22 23 24 25

4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2

110 114 118 122 127 131 136 141 146 152

(3)

, ,

, .

2011 43 3 2020 37 2

.

3 91

, 2011 24 9 2020

21 6 , 2011 4 8 2020 4 1

. 2011 2 6 2020 2 1 ,

2011 3 2 2020 2 6 .

2011 6 2 2020 5 5 ,

2011 1 2020 8 . 2011 5 2020

4 .

( : )

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

249 245 240 236 233 229 226 223 220 216

48 47 47 46 46 45 44 43 42 41

26 25 25 24 24 23 23 22 22 21

32 31 31 30 29 29 28 27 26 26

62 61 61 60 58 58 57 56 55 55

10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8

5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

433 425 418 411 404 397 391 384 378 372

92

(4)

, .

2011 9 4,

27 5, 6 4, 2020 11 4, 19

2, 6 6 .

, 2011 4 1

, 15 9, 4 9, 2020 5 4, 11

4, 4 8 .

2011 8, 1 7, 1, 2020

9, 1 1, 1 .

( : )

2011 2015 2020

41 159 49 47 138 48 54 114 48

15 29 3 17 25 4 17 20 4

8 17 1 9 14 1 9 11 1

9 20 4 9 16 4 9 12 4

15 42 5 17 36 6 19 29 7

4 6 0 4 5 0 4 4 0

2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1

(%)

94

(22)

275

(63)

64

(15)

104

(26)

235

(58)

64

(16)

114

(30)

192

(52)

66

(18)

3 93

10(2001~2010) ,

.

10 9.6%,

2011 22% 10%p

.

2011 22% 2020 30% .

( : %)

2001~2005 2006~2010 (2001~2010)

7.6 71.7 20.7 12.0 79.8 8.2 9.6 75.2 15.2

2011 60 19 7, 60

85 12 9, 85 10 6, 2020 60 17 9, 6085

11 1, 85 8 2 .

, 60

2011 45% 2020 48% . , 85

2011 25% 2020 22% .

94

, 2011 60 11

6, 6085 7, 85 6 3, 2020 60 10 6, 60

85 6 1, 85 5 .

2011 60 2, 6085 1 5, 85 1 2,

2020 60 1 9, 6085 1 3, 85 1 .

2011 60 5, 6085 3, 85 2, 2020 60

4, 6085 2, 85 2 .

( : )

2011 2015 2020

60

60~85

85

60

60~85

85

60

60~85

85

116 70 63 110 66 57 106 61 50

20 15 12 20 15 12 19 13 10

10 9 7 9 8 6 9 7 5

15 11 6 14 10 6 13 9 4

29 20 14 27 19 12 27 18 10

5 3 2 5 2 2 4 2 2

2 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 1

(%)

197(45)

129(30)

106(25)

187(46)

121(30)

96(24)

179(48)

111(30)

82(22)

3 95

10 , 60

31%, 2011 45%

.

( : %)

2001~2005 2006~2010 (2001~2010)

60

60~85

85

60

60~85

85

60

60~85

85

33 45 22 29 38 33 31 42 27

(5)

, ,

HD11 2020 .

,

.

,

. ,

.

2011 10%,

23% .

. ,

, .

,

.

. 12

, ,

.

96

4.

, ,

, , ,

.

, ,

, , ,

, ,

.

1)

,

.

.

, ,

,

.

,

.

.

.

, ,

, , ,

3 97

.

.

2)

,

. , 100%

, ,

.

,

.

. 2020

-0.02%, 2016 ,

, , ,

.

, . ,

.

3) 66)

.67)

66) (2010) .

98

.

, ,

.

,

,

.

(hard service)

(soft

service) .

.

67) .

3 99

3

99

/

,

35

54

11

,

,

,

(

)

,

,

,

,

,

18

500

,

50

,

,

,

,

,

,

/

,

,

,

,

,

100

100

/

/

,

(h

ard

ser

vice

)

(sof

t se

rvic

e)

,

,

4 101

4C H A P T E R 4

68)

. , ,

,

.

.

,

, .

.

2018

.

.

1.

1)

(15~64) , 1

. 2004 12784

68) , ,

. .

102

, 2005 (1564),

(14 ) .69)

.

65 2006 .

1970 (65 7%) 1994 (14%),

2006 (20%) 2015 26.9%

.

: 1. '' '', '

(200612 ) ()

2. ' 15-64 , '' 65

3. 2005

4. ( ) , ,

5. 1950-1960, 1971

: . . 2011.

.

69) 1990 69.7% 2000 68.2%,

2010 64.2%, 2020 59.9% .

4 103

,

,

.

. () .

1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

(A)

25,320 29,651 32,835 35,197 37,812 41,159 44,360 47,255 49,973

(B) 25,591 31,059 35,451 38,607 42,007 45,879 50,246 53,891 57,586

(B)-(A) 271 1,408 2,616 3,410 4,195 4,720 5,887 6,636 7,613

(C) 1,034 1,720 2,679 3,302 3,940 4,476 5,764 6,593 7,568

(C/B) 4.0 5.5 7.6 8.6 9.4 9.8 11.5 12.2 13.1

: 1968 . =()/()

: . .

()

2)

, , ,

,

.

19701990,

,

2000,

104

,

2006 .

12% 1990

, (1960

1970), (the Aging Society, 1980),

(the Aged Society, 1990) .

.

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

5

1(1966~1970)11

2(1971~1975)3(1976~1980)

4(1981~1985)5(1986~1990) ,

6(1991~1995)7(1996~2000)

8(2000~2005)

1962 1963 1964 1969

1972 1978 ()

1980 2 1985 , 1986 , () 1987 () 1988 () (loan)

1990 1991 () 1993 () 1995

2000 () 2003 2006

: . 20. 1995.

4 105

(1)

1990

. 1990

.

. , 1990 ,

, 8 .

1994

, . 1994 6

21 4 1 500

. ,

1994

.

1995 6 1995 12

,

,

.

1996 7 5(19962000)

,

. 1997 , ,

.

.

1990

,

106

1995 ,

.

1991

. 1996

.

1998

. 1990

.

,

, 8 5

(20012005) (20%)

(110) .

(2)

2002 ,

. 2001

2000

.

6(()

) 77

. 8 5(2001

2005) 2015 20% (barrier-free)

.70)

70) 2006 .

, (2006 6 8 61) .

4 107

2001

. ,

.

, .

, ,

.71)

, ,

.

, , .

, ,

.

.72)

, , (

) .

, , ,

.

71) 2005 3 1,504(1,072).

72) ,

, ,

. ,

. ,

.

108

.

, ,

.

,

. 2009

.

2.

1)

2010 3871 2000 28142 10%

1% ,

.73)

, (1564) 2010

2725 2000 18618 11.3%( 2107 ) . 15

6123 2000 6025 1.6%( 97 )

, 65 4027 2000 3499 15%( 528

) .

2010 11283 2000 1548

10.7% . 2000 2 32.6% , 1

25.8%, 3 16.5% .

73) 2010 , 2010 (U.S. Bureau of the Census, ).

4 109

4

109

: ,

.

(

)

22

(

).

2011

.3.

p.3

.

110

12 2000 58.4% . 1990

49.4% 9%p

, 3, 4 0.9%p .

.

, 7700 2011

20 65 (senior) .

2010 65 4300

13% . 2008 ,

2030 20% 2050 20%

.

65 2030 7200 , 2040 8100 ,

2050 8900 .

(2564) 2010 24.5% 2030 40%, 2040

42% .

2)

(1) 21

1999

21 (Commission on

Affordable Housing and Health Facility Needs for Seniors in the 21st Century,

2002, 21 , 2002) .

21 2030 7200 1/3

, 20%

. 21

.74)

74) 21 2002 .

4 111

, , ,

.

, ,

, (HCBS; home and community based services),

supportive housing , .

, aging in place

75) .

,

, .

, ,

(Medicaid) HCBS

, , .

(2)

, .

, ,

(Older

American Act) 409 , 40% 60

(NORC)76) (NORC-SSP)

.

75) Aging in place

.

76) (NORC; Naturally Occurring Retirement Community)

, (Michael Hunt)

.

112

NORC , , ,

, , ,

.

NORC-Supportive Service

Program(NORC-SSP).

NORC-SSP , ,

, (philanthropic organizations), (NGO)

. 1986 NORC-SSP 41,

26 .

. ()

.77)

.

.

.

(Seniors Apartments) 10100

, ,

(Congregate Seniors Housing) .

(Assisted Living Residences) 24

.

77) (2005) 65~74 83% 75 86%

,

.

4 113

: NORC-SSP

NORC-SSP

1986 Penn South Houses

, .

1995 NORC-SSP

.

14 120 (matching grant)

5 14 ,

. 14

12 , (moderate income)

, , (co-ops) .

1999 12 , 16

400 .

a) 60 45%( 50%) 250

b) 500( 2500)

. 2/3 20

, 1/3 .

2000 28 SSP 46

. NORC-SSP (Medi-

care), (Medicaid), (Older Americans

Act) ,

.

114

3.

1)

, ,

. 2008 6100

, 1980 3 .78)

. 1975 65

14.1% . OECD FACTBOOK(2010)

2024 20% .

, (1564) 1970 54% 2008 57.6%

, 2008 .

2008 2.33 , 2031

2.13 (UK DCLG). , 1 1971

18% 2008 28.8% (UK ONS).

.

,

,

.

(1)

30% 60 , 20042026

240 ( 48%) .

1950 2040

(Sheltering Housing) .

78) OECD FACTBOOK(2010) .

4 115

1980

,

.

,

2007 green paper 2020

300 .

80 ( 2011 35 )

,

.

2008 .

79)

,

.

, 2008

16 'Lifetime Home Standards'

80).

2011 2013

. (Lifetime

neighborhoods) , , ,

.

,

.

79) 48~64 65

(Croucher, 2008).

80) , 2 1 16 .

116

(2)

,

, ,

.

(sheltered housing) .

24 60

. ,

.

. 20~40 ,

.

,

, .

, ,

, .

(income support)

.

.

,

,

.

, , ,

. Abbeyfield Homes almshouses

.

4 117

2)

,

,

. 75 ,

.

85 53% ,

, .

(2002~2003)( : %)

5564 6574 7584 85

65.8 62.6 45.2 28.9

33.5 36.1 48.3 42.8

61.8 57.1 39.9 25.4

15.6 16.7 23.6 18.6

22.2 25.0 35.2 52.7

0.2 0.6 3.7 16.8

22.7 29.7 50.0 76.0

: SCB. Aldres levnadsforhallanden(19802003). 2006.

4 .

24 24

. (

) ,

. ,

.

.

65

.

, ,

.

118

,

.

3)

.

1960, 70 65

7% () . 1980

,

.

(ageing in place)

24

.

.

,

.

196070 1980 7%

, 1988 1 ,

.

1987 81)

,

.

81) , ,

. 85%

, 13% , 2% . 1997

.

4 119

, (

) , 24

.

1987

, 1930

.

4.

.

.

, .

,

.

.

,

.

.

,

.

,

. ,

.

120

,

.

, .

, , ,

, ,

. , ,

.

5 121

5C H A P T E R 5

.

2008

100% , ,

.

,

.

.

.

1. 2020

1)

2010 11

1500 , 101.9%,

.

.

122

,

.

3 ,

.

2020 ,

.

,

. , .

,

, ,

.

, 2020

.

< 2020 >

,

2020 ,

, , ,

.

5 123

,

.

,

,

.

2)

2020 ,

3 .

,

,

, ,

3

, ,

,

,

.

124

2.

1)

(1)

2010 ,

.

, , 50

40, 10 400 .

, 60:40 ,

.

, . 1 ,

, 60 45%, 6085

30% .

50%

.

, .

40 25 ,

15 .

5070 4:

63:7 , 40

4:63:7 ,

7:3 .

,

65% , 35% , 80

, .

.

5 125

(2)

.

1 1 ,

.

,

(2018 ) ,

.

, , 100% ,

1

.

,

.

.

,

.

(3)

,

, .

, ,

.

126

,

,

.

, 4

.

,

,

.

2)

(1)

(Supportive Housing)

. ,

6575

.

,

, 10100

,

.

, 76

.

24

, , 100

(NGO , ) .

5 127

(2)

.

(barrier-free) ,

.

, 2016 .

, ,

.

, ,

. ( )

,

, .

,

, ,

,

.

,

. 5%

.

(3)

,

65

55

128

. ,

.

, , 55~59, 60~64

, 65~69, 70~74, 75~79, 80~84, 85

,

.

< > < >

()

(4) 82)

.

82) 1( ) 5

.

5 129

,

,

.

.

,

.

.

.

,

. 70

,

.

,

.

,

,

.

,

.

,

.

,

.

130

,

.

,

.

, .

,

.

2 ,

(ageing in place) .83)

83)

, .

5 131

() ()

, ()

.

,

.

,

. 2030 ,

.

.

132

3)

(1)

.84)

,

, .

.85)

, ,

.86)

,

.87)

,

, .

+ + +

, + +

.

84)

. .

(). . 2010. pp.166~170

.

85) , .

.

86) . ,

.

87) , (2007)

.

.

5 133

. ,

. ,

. HOME

(Home Investment Partnership Program) .

6%

ADDI(American Dream Downpayment Initiative Act)

SHOP

(Self-help Homeownership Opportunity Program) .

* : . 2010. . . p.119.

, ()

. ( 50

) , ( , ,

) .

(2)

,

(, 2010).

,

65% .

,

.

, ,

,

.

134

,

.

. ,

,

.

,

.

,

. , ,

,

.

,

.

5, 10, 15

.

,

.

.

.

,

.

5 135

.

,

.

, ,

61.2%

. 2008 5

.

.

* : . 2010. . p.126.

(3)

.

(2018 12%),

.

, 2018 150

, 15

.

2010

, .

, .

, ,

.

136

.

,

.

LH

, . ,

, ,

.

(4)

.

,

.

. ,

.

,

.

, ,

.

, 88) ,

.

, , ,

88) . . 2010. p.144.

5 137

.89)

, .

,

,

.

(5)

,

,

.

,

, , ,

.

,

.

,

, .

,

. ,

.

,

.

,

.

89) . ?. . 4

. 2010.12.9. p.196.

138

,

.

,

, ,

.

, ,

,

, ,

.

, ,

.

,

.

,

.

,

(provider)

(enabler) .

(agent)

(facilitator) .

,

.

5 139

(6) 90)

(2011.11.27), 56.2

. 50 ,

2010 (1173) 4.8% .

.

2000 ,

.

2010 358

. 2010

285, 73 , GDP() 32%

. GDP ,

.

,

,

.

.

2009 5 10 (5,

7.25%) ,

.91) , 2010 7

5 (5.5, 4.15) ,

.

.

90) 5

() .

91) ,

.

140

.

,

,

. ,

.

,

.

.

, (DTI) (LTV)

,

.

,

.

LTV DTI

.

4)

(1) (100 )

2011 11 1500

. , 1970

,

.

5 141

.

,

,

.

, ,

.

,

(100 ), ,

Movable Space House .

.

,

.

(2)

. ,

.

,

,

.

, ,

. ,

142

.

, ,

,

.

.

5) 92)

(1)

. ,

.

,

.

, , , ,

.

, 12 ,

, , .

.

92) 1960 , , 1970

1980

. 2002 ,

, , ,

.

5 143

(2)

.

,

( )

.

.

,

.

.

(3)

, .

, , 50%

, ,

.

, (, , )

.

.

, ,

,

.

144

, ,

.

(4)

100%

.

.

. , ,

.

.

,

, .

(Growth Areas) ,

(Housing Renewal Pathfinders)

.

, ,

. 2003 Sustainable Communities: Building for The

Future Sustainable Communities: People, Places and

Prosperity(2005) , ,

.

5 145

(5)

,

.93)

,

(14) ,

.

,

, .

( )

.

(6)

,

.

, ,

( ) .

,

,

.94)

,

.95)

93) , 2

1 , 1 .

94)

, (

. . . . 2011. p.20).

146

,

.

.

, 4

,

.

,

.

6)

(1)

.

,

.

. .

, 2025 ,

2020 200( 2025)

. 2012

.

95)

( . . p.106).

5 147

, ,

, ,

.

,

(64) .

.

,

.

(2)

,

. ,

.

, ,

.

, , ,

.

, ,

, . ,

.

, (one day)

. ,

, ,

.

148

7)

(1)

.

, .

,

.

.

(2)

,

. , ,

, , , ,

.

.

, .

,

. , , ,

.

NGO , , , ,

.

5 149

,

.96)

96)

1988 3 .

, ,

, , ,

,

, , ,

.

, ,

.

: , , ,

( ) , (

) , . ,

,

:

:

,

:

: , ,

:

:

:

6 151

6C H A P T E R 6

, .

,

,

.

. ,

.

,

.

1.

12 , ,

, 2008

.

2009 ,

2018

.

152

. ,

, 12

. , , ,

.

,

.

, ,

,

.

, ,

,

.

, , ,

20112020 40

. 50 20%

.

. ,

. ,

.

.

6 153

.

,

.

,

, 2020

,

, .

,

, ,

3 .

,

, , ,

,

,

7 ,

, ,

.

2.

1)

,

154

.

.

,

, , ,

.

. ,

(barometer)

. ,

, ,

.

,

.

,

,

.

.

(age mix)

(age mix)

2

:

( )

6 155

:

()

55

4

() 300 : 21

500 : 40

() 100 , 100 10

52 2000

46

50

( 3 )

,

.

.

, .

.

, .

,

.

,

.

, ,

.

.

156

- 2, 5, 9,

62

- 2, 6, 20

- 55, 46

- 7(

)

2)

(1)

, 12

,

.

.

, , ,

.

, ,

.

, .

, ,

6 157

.

, ,

.

, , ,

.

, ,

.

,

.

, , .

, ,

,

.

(2)

, ,

,

.

, 101.9%(2010) 105%(2020),

99.0%(2010) 103%(2020) .

364(2010) 409(2020) .

,

. , ,

80%

.

158

2020

, ,

. 2010 5.5%97) 2020

12%

,

2010 184 98) ( 10.6%)

2020 60 ( 3%)

.

,

.

.

,

,

.

97) . . 2011. p469(2010 )

98) . 2010 . . 2011.8.11.

6 159

,

.

,

.

(3)

, 2020 65%

.

,

.

, ,

.

.

, , , 1

.

,

.

, , ,

,

.

160

3.

,

,

, , ,

.

, , ,

,

,

. ,

.

,

.

.

161

R E F E R E N C E

. 2011. : 100 .

.

- . 2011. :100 . .

. 2010. . .

. 2007. 1 . .

. 2003. . .

. 1991. . .

. 2006. -

. .

- . 2009. . .

. 2007. . .

. 2009. . CEO information(726).

. 2007. . .

. 1998. . .

. 2000. . .

. 2006. ()-

. .

. 2007. -

. .

. 2009. . .

. 2010. - . .

162

. 2009. (). .

. 2010. (). .

. 2011. . .

.

. 2008. . .

. 2005. . .

. 2008. . .

. 2005. .

40(3). .

. 2010. 2020 . .

. 2009. .

22(3).

LG. 2010. 2020 . .

LH. 2010. .

. 2006.11. .

. 2007.11. 2005~2030 .

. 2005 .

. - 15

-.

Croucher. K. 2008. Housing Choices and Aspirations of Older People: Research

from the New Horizons Programme. London: Communities and Local

Government

UK Department of Communities and Local Government Spending Review 201

0(http://www.communities.gov.uk/corporate/about/howwework/corporate

reports/reportsaccounts/sr2010/)

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. 2010. 'HUD Strategic Plan

FY 2010-2015'.

SUMMARY 163

S U M M A R Y

SUMMARY

A Study on Housing Policy Paradigm Shift for Social and

Economic Structural ChangesSoo-Wook Lee, Chun-Gyu Park, Yun-Kyung Choi, Hyun-Ji Lee,

Sung-Jae Jeon, Woo-Deok Seon, Beom-Su Lee, Wan-Jung Kim

Korea has experienced rapid demographic changes and socio-economic

changes in past 10 years. Nationally, the birthrate is decreasing and population

aging is quickly increasing. Knowledge-based society has now matured, and

economic growth and urbanization entered stable stage. Internationally, the

global economy is constantly changing, and the uncertainties of the global

economy is rising. Also, climate change has become a determining factors in

our society.

Many experts expect that various changes both inside and outside the

Korea will affect the change of population, society, and economy in Korea.

And they agree that we need to prepare the change going to take place. In

this context, new housing policy paradigm is needed to be designed to meet

various changes in the housing market.

This study analyzed socio-economic changes based on population change

in terms of housing market. And it estimated the midlong-term housing

demand. Finally, it proposed housing policies reflecting the new housing

164

market trends derived from the analysis.

The time range of this study is limited to 2020 to draw the results having

power of execution. Spatially, it examined both the whole country and seven

metropolitan areas including capital area to reflect that housing market and

housing service market are departmentalized locally.

It is composed of six different chapters including introduction(chapter 1).

Chapter 2 analyzed conditions of housing market and results of housing

policies. Chapter 3 examined the socio-economical changed and analyzed

housing preference. Chapter 4 examined the international case studies for

the changes of housing market. Chapter 5 predicted how housing consuming

behavior will change and estimated midlong-term housing demand. Chapter

6 proposed the housing policy corresponding to changes in housing market.

To get more meaningful and effective result, this study uses various

research methods such as studies on documents, collaboration with other

research institutes, analysis of survey, focused group interviews, and an

empirical analysis. And it developed its own model for forecasting housing

demand. It also examines developed countries' polices and programs.

One of the key results of this paper is that demographic change is not

the only factor of latest changes related to housing market. This study

suggested that various socio-economic factors affects them complexly. Also,

it suggested "Society without worrying about housing, and stale living

condition" as the vision of future hosing policy. This motto has wish that

everyone must be able to enjoy stable housing life style. It also propose three

policy goals and seven directions to achieve this vision in con. The analysis

and policies newly suggested in this paper can contribute to make more

sophisticated and practical housing policies.

Key words _ housing policy paradigm, paradigm shift, demographic changes,

socio-economic changes, housing market, housing demand

165

A P P E N D I X

(1)

()

ID

?

000 ooo. ___

, , .

.

1. ?

1-1. ?

2. ( : ) 3. ? _________

166

1. ?

/ /

()

/( )

* :

2. ?

()

/( )

3. () ?

.

5 5~10 10~19 20~29

30~39 40~49 50~59 60

/( )

4. ( )

?

1 2 3 4

5 6 /( )

4-1. (4 ) ?

/( )

* : ()

5. ?

5-1 8

167

5-1.

?

() /( )

5-2. ?

5-3. ,, ?

6. ?

/ /

()

/( )

7. ?

_______ _______ 7-1

7-2, 7-3

/( )

7-1. ?

( )

/( )

7-2. ?

( ) /( )

168

7-3.

?

/( )

(10 )

8. 10 ,

?

/( )

9. 10 ,

? _______

10. 10 ,

.

10-1. 10 ?

/ /

()

/( )

10-2. 10

?

()

/( )

169

10-2-1. (2 , 10-2 ) 10

?

/( )

10-2-2. (2 , 10-2 ~ )

10

?

/( )

10-2-3. (10-2-2 )

?

( )

/( )

10-2-4. (2 ~ , 10-2 ~ )

?

( )

/( )

10-2-5. (2 ~ , 10-2 ~ )

, ?

(

)

( )

/( )

170

10-3. 10 ?

5 5~10 10~19 20~29

30~39 40~49 50~59 60

/( )

10-4. 10

?

1 2 3 4 5 6 /( )

10-5. (10-4 )

?

/( )

10

11. 10 ? 10

.

/( )

12. 10

?

(, , ) 12-1(11 , ) ( ) 12-1 () 12-2 /( )

12-1. 10 ? /( )

171

12-2. 10 ?

/( )

13. 10

?

.

/ / / / / // / /( )

(65 )

14. (50 ) 65

,

.

14-1. 65 ?