um flint sem planning workshop 3 12 2015 handout · pdf fileadopted(by(admissions(and(marke%ng...

3/11/15

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Crea%ng a Strategic Enrollment Management Plan:

University of Michigan Flint

March 12, 2015

UM Flint SEM Planning Workshop 3/2015 2

Workshop Overview 1.  SeFng the context for enrollment planning at UM Flint

2.  What is SEM and what is a SEM plan?

3.  The enrollment environment

4.  Projec%ng enrollment to 2020

5.  Student behavior trends

6.  Team roles and %me lines

7.  Next steps

SeFng the Context for Enrollment Planning at UM Flint

Chancellor Borrego

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What is SEM planning and why is it important?

Tom Green, Ph.D.

Associate Execu%ve Director, Consul%ng and SEM

AACRAO


A brief history of Strategic Enrollment Management (SEM)

1.  Earliest wriZen references are in 1972 by Maguire and Campanella from Boston College to “enrollment management”.

2.  Adopted by admissions and marke%ng professionals in the mid-‐1980’s in response to “baby bust” demographic shias: –  Large infrastructure development from 1960’s to 1980’s to

accommodate “massifica%on” and “baby boom”. –  Sharp declines in 18-‐year-‐old popula%on. –  Most popular among private colleges and universi%es.

3.  Early versions featured enhanced marke%ng and financial discoun%ng methods.



4.  1990: –  Hossler and Bean publish “Strategic Management of College

Enrollments”. –  AACRAO forms first SEM conference.

5.  1990’s: –  Expansion of tui%on discoun%ng prac%ces among privates. –  Enrollment management divisions start to form. –  Emphasis on reten%on starts to emerge.

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6.  Early 2000’s: –  Public universi%es become engaged in SEM. –  Tui%on discoun%ng expands to public sector.

7.  Mid-‐2000’s: –  Community colleges become engaged in SEM. –  Disrup%on to marke%ng and communica%on methods by Internet:

•  New techniques and concepts begin to emerge.

8.  2010’s: –  SEM spreads worldwide. –  Informa%on-‐age marke%ng and communica%on becomes robust.


What is Strategic Enrolment Management (SEM)?

Enrollment management is an organiza%onal concept and a systema%c set of ac%vi%es designed to enable educa%onal ins%tu%ons to exert more influence over their student enrollments.

Hossler, 1990



Strategic enrolment management is a concept and process that enables the fulfillment of ins%tu%onal mission and students’ educa%onal goals.

Bontrager, circa 2004

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SEM is an organiza%onal mindset that is focused on internal student success and experiences and the external environment as a means to more effec%vely relate its ins%tu%onal mission and values to its key stakeholders and audiences.

Green, 2014


SEM planning is . . .

1.  Future and long-‐term focused: –  Knowing what we want five to ten years from now, not just for next

year’s budget.

2.  Data-‐informed: –  We seek evidence to support our goals and claims.

3.  Challenging: –  Focusing the ins%tu%on’s resources on a few highly important items

requires narrowing down choices and agreeing that not everyone’s ideas will make it into the plan.


SEM planning is not . . .

1.  Fixing opera%onal issues: –  Those are inherently not strategic and the SEM plan should not be

used as a cover to address management concerns or problems.

2.  Silver bullets or even silver buckshot: –  There are strong prac%ces and good models but no quick fixes or

single solu%ons.

3.  Isolated to one office or area: –  To become a strong SEM organiza%on, the campus has to link arms

and build an infrastructure that is both formal and informal in nature.

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Why is SEM important today?

1.  Accountability for our ac%ons in higher educa%on is greater than ever: –  Performance-‐based funding. –  Demands for outcomes as prices rise. –  Rankings and ra%ngs.

2.  We must be as effec%ve and efficient as possible with limited resources: –  Public funding levels may never return to those seen in the past. –  Technology changes rapidly and presents opportuni%es but also

challenges and expecta%ons. –  Inefficient prac%ces ul%mately pass on costs to students, making it

harder for them to access and complete degree programs.


Why is SEM important today?

3.  Student success is the right thing to do: –  While students must take responsibility for their own educa%on, we

must help them have every reasonable chance to do so. –  We can no longer associate lack of academic achievement with lack of

will.

4.  We have expanded access to an increasing popula%on of low-‐income, first-‐genera%on students: –  Helping them navigate higher educa%on and make the leap from

secondary educa%on expecta%ons to higher educa%on expecta%ons takes more effort than for those who have had more resources prior to entering higher educa%on.


SEM Planning Framework

Tactics

Strategies

Enrollment Infrastructure

Strategic Enrollment Goals

Data Collection and Analysis

Key Enrollment Indicators

Institutional Strategic Plan

Sustainable Enrollment Outcomes

Bontrager/Green

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Tactics

Strategies






Ø  Clarity of institutional mission, vision, goals

Ø  Core competencies

Ø  Strategic direction

Ø  Aggregate enrollment goals




Tactics

Strategies






Ø  Student categories: first year, transfer, dual enrollment, voc/tech, continuing ed, face-to-face/online, certificate, etc.

Ø  Desired student groups: racial/ethnic diversity, academic ability, 1st gen

Ø  Geographic origin: local, regional,

Ø  Recruitment, retention, completion

Ø  Institutional capacity




Tactics

Strategies






Ø  Internal benchmarks: KEI numbers over the past 3-5 years

Ø  Environmental scan −  Demographics −  Economics −  Market opportunities −  Competition

Ø  Institutional research plan: designated reports and production schedule


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Tactics

Strategies






Ø  5-10 year KEI targets

Ø  Focus: the institution’s desired future

Ø  Based on: mission, data, and environmental scanning




Tactics

Strategies






Ø  Staffing: skill sets, strategic deployment

Ø  Systems: policies, procedures, technology

Ø  Capacity for making effective enrollment decisions : positions, reporting lines, committees




Tactics

Strategies


Strategic enrollment Goals




Ø  Increase new students of specified types

Ø  Increase retention rates, specifically by student types

Ø  Utilize emerging technologies

Ø  Financial aid/scholarships

Ø  Academic programs: mix and delivery systems


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Tactics

Strategies






Ø  Marketing/branding initiatives

Ø  Academic program review

Ø  Multilingual recruitment materials

Ø  Targeted interventions for students in high risk courses

Ø  Enhanced academic advising

Ø  Streamlined admission procedures

Ø  Purchase a new CRM system




Tactics

Strategies






Ø  Consistently meeting goals over the long term

−  Enabling more effective campus-wide planning −  Revisions to the

institutional strategic plan −  Academic planning:

curriculum, faculty needs −  Facility planning −  Financial planning

Ø  Achieving the institution’s desired future



SEM Process Framework

New

or revised

goa

ls

Data gathering and assessment: Internal culture/ environment, student enrollment

behaviors and scan of external environment

Process steps Performed by

Smaller group of staff and faculty adept at economics and data use

Use data results to establish focused goals each for recruitment, reten%on, service, etc., and enrollment projec%on models

Goals recommended by SEM Recruitment and Reten%on Councils; models developed

by Data Team

Approve strategic goals and enrollment projec%on models

Execu%ve Team SEM Steering CommiZee

Develop ac;on steps, accountability, and metrics SEM councils and sub-‐commiZees

Implement ac%on steps Appropriate staff and faculty departments

Monitor progress, Report results to campus and execu%ve leadership

SEM Steering CommiZee Chief Enrollment Officer

Addi;onal requests, clarifying

ques;ons Changes to goals

Mid-‐course

adjustments

Align ins;tu;onal strategic plan with broad enrollment targets and desired mix of students


Green/Bontrager

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SEM Organizational Framework

SEM Steering Committee Long-term enrollment goals, securing the approval of strategies through appropriate

institutional channels, communication with Executive Team

Recruitment Council Develop 3-4 strategic goals for new student

recruitment; review and approve sub-committee action plans; recommend to SEM Steering Committee

Retention Council Develop 3-4 strategic goals for retention and

graduation; review and approve sub-committee action plans; recommend to SEM Steering Committee

Data Team Environment scanning, student enrollment behavior research,

enrollment models, provide data to councils as needed

3-4 Sub-Committees Action plans, time lines and metrics for

each strategic goal


each strategic goal

Executive Team Institutional strategic plan, approval and champions of strategic enrollment goals and initiatives

Green/Bontrager

UM Flint’s Enrollment Environment

UM Flint Data Team

Enrollment Projec%on Models

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Enrollment projec%on models 1.  Built to test assump%ons about changes in enrollment trends.

2.  Based upon historical enrollment data and paZerns.

3.  Es%mated new students for fall 2015 used across the models as a base level: –  675 FTIAC –  667 transfers –  675 “other” – DEEP, non-‐degree undergraduates –  400 domes%c graduate students –  40 interna%onal FTIAC –  19 interna%onal transfers –  35 interna%onal “other” –  100 interna%onal graduate students


Enrollment projec%on models

4.  Assump%ons drive models: –  Choosing the best reten%on/progression rates are cri%cal. –  These assump%ons rely upon informed choices by people who

understand nuances within enrollment paZerns at the University.

5.  The data team spent extensive %me reviewing the past enrollment paZerns to develop a model that they believe best represents the enrollment paZerns from fall 2008 – winter 2015.


Three models to consider

1.  Status quo: –  Requires extensive work to recruit students, just to stay even against

declining demographic trends. –  Assumes historical trends in reten%on con%nue but are stable across

years.

2.  How many new FTIAC’s does it take to make 10,000 students by 2020?

3.  What happens if FTIAC reten%on improves to median Michigan public benchmarks? –  Stepwise improvement from 71% to 76%.

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Enrollment projec%on model 1 – status quo

8717

9030

9240

9380 9474

9537

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

9200

9400

9600

Fall 2015 Fall 2016 Fall 2017 Fall 2018 Fall 2019 Fall 2020

Total Enrollment

Requires 675 FTIAC, 667, TR, 675 Other/DEEP, 400 GR, 190 Int’l NEW every fall term


Enrollment projec%on model 2 – enough FTIAC to reach 10,000

Requires 800 FTIAC, 667, TR, 675 Other/DEEP, 400 GR, 190 Int’l NEW every fall term

8842

9304

9611

9808 9937

10019

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

9200

9400

9600

9800

10000

10200


Total Enrollment


Enrollment projec%on model 3 – FTIAC reten%on to MI public median (76%)

Requires 675 FTIAC, 667, TR, 675 Other/DEEP, 400 GR, 190 Int’l NEW every fall term; FTIAC retention moved from 71.2 % to 76% by fall 2020

8717

9036

9259 9417

9532 9605

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

9200

9400

9600

9800


Total Enrollment

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UM Flint Student Enrollment Behaviors

Teresa Farnum & Associates, Inc.

Tom Green, AACRAO


UM Flint Historical Reten%on Rates -‐ FTIAC

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

aaer 1st year 73.52% 71.79% 69.38% 74.29% 76.37% 70.33% 70.81% 71.55% 72.93% 72.17% 70.01% 74.00% 79.90% 71.90%

aaer 2nd year 58.01% 57.14% 53.75% 63.57% 61.60% 57.37% 56.52% 59.93% 53.19% 57.20% 56.81% 61.90% 65.93%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90% Full Time First Time Cohort Reten;on

Average rate = 72%

Source: UM Flint Institutional Assessment, Fawn Skarsten


Roughly 40-‐50% of all freshmen are gone aaer two years

Domestic FTIAC

Start Term Starting count

Retained to second fall

% retained

Retained to third fall

% retained

Fall 2008 897 642 71.6% 451 50.3%

Fall 2009 761 530 69.6% 414 54.4%

Fall 2010 667 448 67.2% 394 59.1%

Fall 2011 567 404 71.3% 337 59.4%

Fall 2012 533 418 78.4% 332 62.3%

Fall 2013 639 440 68.9% ?? ?? Source: Historical UM Flint data files (not tied to official IPEDS totals)

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Reten%on by admission type -‐ FTIAC

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Challenge/Probation 62.3% 62.6% 54.7% 54.3% 70.3% 62.4% Standard 74.9% 73.7% 70.8% 75.4% 81.0% 72.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

First Fall to Second Fall Retention by Admission Type

Challenge/Probation

Standard


Reten%on by distance from UM Flint campus

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Commutable

Non Commutable


Reten%on by ethnicity -‐ FTIAC

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Reten%on by ethnicity -‐ FTIAC

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

White Black or African American

Hispanic or Latino

Two or more races

Nonresident Alien Unknown Asian American Indian or Alaska Native

Fall to Fall Retention by Ethnicity

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012


Reten%on by EFC

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

Large Medium Low No-D No-I Total

Y10-11

Y11-12

Y12-13

Y13-14


Where do students go when they leave?

1.  Na%onal Student Clearinghouse provides data on students who aZend other ins%tu%ons who report enrollment through them: –  This is their Student Tracker service. –  Using this, we can see where students may enroll if they leave UM

Flint.

2.  Some students may not appear on the report: –  It contains about 94% of all enrollment in the United States but not

all. –  Students who leave for military service or work will not appear. –  Students who change names or have mismatched data. –  Overall, it matches most students.

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Top choices for next ins%tu%on aaer UM Flint – all students 1.  MoZ Community College

2.  Baker College – Flint

3.  Oakland Community College

4.  UM – Ann Arbor

5.  Lansing Community College

6.  Michigan State University

7.  Central Michigan University

8.  Oakland University

9.  Davenport University

10. University of Phoenix

11. Delta College

12. Saginaw Valley State University

13. St. Clair Community College

14. Eastern Michigan


Top choices for next ins%tu%on aaer UM Flint – 3.0 or higher earned GPA

1.  MoZ Community College

2.  UM – Ann Arbor

3.  Michigan State University

4.  Baker College – Flint

5.  Oakland University

6.  Oakland Community College

7.  Lansing Community College

8.  Central Michigan University

9.  Grand Valley State University

10. Ferris State University


FTIAC and Transfer reten%on compared

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Full-‐‑Time Transfers and Freshmen Fall to Fall Retention

Transfers

Freshmen

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Term to term reten%on -‐ transfers


Benchmarking FTIAC reten%on – Educa%on Trust algorithm


Benchmarking FTIAC reten%on – MI publics

Source: Education Trust, college results online, 3/2015

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Student sa%sfac%on

1.  UM Flint administers the Noel-‐Levitz Student Sa%sfac%on Inventory: –  Measures the importance of issues to students. –  Measures the level of sa%sfac%on with those issues. –  The “gap” between importance and performance implies areas where

improvements can be made. –  On standard ques%ons, allows comparison of those issues against

other ins%tu%ons to “norm” the responses.

2.  In most areas, UM Flint performs well: –  Students are generally more sa%sfied with academics and services

than students at other ins%tu%ons.


Student sa%sfac%on

3.  The instrument allows for “local” ques%ons that are not answered by students at other ins%tu%ons.

4.  Two local ques%ons revealed areas where the gaps between importance (high) and performance (low) imply areas for improvement: –  Classes I need to complete my degree program are available. –  Course scheduling problems have interfered with my ability to

complete degree requirements and graduate in a %mely manner.

SEM Planning Team Roles

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SEM Organizational Framework

SEM Steering Committee Long-term enrollment goals, securing the approval of strategies through appropriate

institutional channels, communication with Executive Team

Recruitment Council Develop 3-4 strategic goals for new student

recruitment; review and approve sub-committee action plans; recommend to SEM Steering Committee

Retention Council Develop 3-4 strategic goals for retention and

graduation; review and approve sub-committee action plans; recommend to SEM Steering Committee

Data Team Environment scanning, student enrollment behavior research,

enrollment models, provide data to councils as needed


each strategic goal


each strategic goal

Executive Team Institutional strategic plan, approval and champions of strategic enrollment goals and initiatives

Green/Bontrager


SEM Process Framework

New

or revised

goa

ls

Data gathering and assessment: Internal culture/ environment, student enrollment

behaviors and scan of external environment

Process steps Performed by

Smaller group of staff and faculty adept at economics and data use

Use data results to establish focused goals each for recruitment, reten%on, service, etc., and enrollment projec%on models

Goals recommended by SEM Recruitment and Reten%on Councils; models developed

by Data Team

Approve strategic goals and enrollment projec%on models


Develop ac;on steps, accountability, and metrics SEM councils and sub-‐commiZees

Implement ac%on steps Appropriate staff and faculty departments

Monitor progress, Report results to campus and execu%ve leadership

SEM Steering CommiZee Chief Enrollment Officer

Addi;onal requests, clarifying

ques;ons Changes to goals

Mid-‐course

adjustments

Align ins;tu;onal strategic plan with broad enrollment targets and desired mix of students


Green/Bontrager


The role of the steering commiZee

1.  Link SEM planning to ins%tu%onal strategic planning.

2.  Link SEM ini%a%ves to ins%tu%onal budget planning.

3.  Assure that the planning process stays on schedule.

4.  Receive, review and approve goals, strategies and tac%cal work plans from the recruitment and reten%on teams.

5.  Assure communica%on across planning teams to avoid duplica%on of efforts and increase synergy from ini%a%ves.

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The role of the recruitment council

1.  Recommend enrollment goals, strategies and tac%cal work plans to the Steering CommiZee for their considera%on, feedback and approval.

2.  Iden%fy the three to four goals that provide the best possible chance of UM Flint enrolling its op%mal mix of students: –  Quan%ty. –  Quality. –  Diversity. –  Program balance.

3.  Create strategies and tac%cal work plans that support the enrollment goals and create accountability for implementa%on.


The role of the reten%on council

1.  Recommend enrollment goals, strategies and tac%cal work plans to the Steering CommiZee for their considera%on, feedback and approval.

2.  Iden%fy the three to four goals that provide the best possible chance that UM Flint will maximize student success: –  Goals that impact the largest number of students. –  Goals that have the greatest likelihood of improving student success.

3.  Create strategies and tac%cal work plans that support the enrollment goals and create accountability for implementa%on.


The role of the data team

1.  Provide the research to inform decision making in the enrollment planning process: –  External environmental scanning. –  Internal student behavior research.

2.  Create enrollment models that es%mate the impact of changes in recruitment and reten%on to achieve op%mal enrollment levels.

3.  Assure that goals, strategies and tac%cal work plans include measurable outcomes.

4.  Assure that data reports exist to track and measure expected enrollment outcomes.

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SEM Planning Time Line for UM Flint

1.  September 2014: –  SEM Readiness Evalua%on

2.  December 2014: –  Discovery, data collec%on and environmental scan begin

3.  January – February 2015: –  Data collec%on, modeling and environmental scan developed

4.  March 2015: –  Reten%on data summit, SEM planning teams developed and charged


SEM Planning Time Line for UM Flint

5.  April 2015: –  Addi%onal reflec%on and discussion of data and informa%on –  SEM goals developed

6.  May – June 2015: –  SEM tac%cs and strategies development

7.  July 2015: –  SEM Plan finalized

8.  August 2015: –  SEM Plan presented to UM Flint community. –  Implementa%on of plan commences.


Next steps

1.  Review the slides from today and the Farnum reten%on report.

2.  Be prepared at the April 21 mee%ng to discuss what the data and informa%on may appear to imply for strategic enrollment goals.

3.  Following the April 21 mee%ng, meet about every two weeks to complete the next phase of the planning process.

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Q&A

Thank you!

um flint sem planning workshop 3 12 2015 handout · pdf fileadopted(by(admissions(and(marke%ng...

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