undp cutting edge data work (presentation for unece workshop december 2013)

1. Exclusion and sustainability measures: New developments Presentation by Mihail Peleah, UNDP BRC Andrey Ivanov, EU FRA for UNECE Conference, 2-4 December 2013

2. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Vivamus quis sem gravida, viverra tortor non, dignissim quam. Mauris ullamcorper suscipit vestibulum. Pellentesque commodo turpis at viverra pharetra. Nullam molestie quam sed mattis egestas. Vivamus justo sapien, fermentum et pulvinar id, scelerisque at nulla.http://fotky.sme.sk/fotka/299648/ciganska-osada-muranska-dlha-luka 3. Going beyond monetary poverty: where? Multidimensional wellbeingSocial Exclusion Index How affordable (sustainable) is our wellbeingAffordable Human Development Index Qualitative and Quantitative data nexusMicronarratives 4. MULTIDIMENSIONAL WELLBEING: SOCIAL EXCLUSION INDEX 5. Why this index? Objective and multidimensional measure of social exclusion Measures status of exclusion or nonexclusion, rather than perceptions or risks Applicable for Europe and Central Asia region Useful for policymaking 6. Social Exclusion Chain Individual characteristicsinteract with Drivers of social exclusion Structures and institutions; values and behavior patterns; policies Drivers are external factors, influenced by legacies, that either speed up or slow down the process of individual vulnerabilities turning into social exclusion(social exclusion risk factors), like poor education, disability, minority statusin context ofSpecific local conditions Predominant industry, single or multiple employment opportunities, local infrastructures, history of violent conflict or environmental disasterand result in Social exclusion status of the individual in three dimensions exclusion from economic life, social services, and civic and social participation 7. Construction of index Based on Alkire-Foster (2009) Exclusion is overlapping deprivations 3 areas of exclusion, 24 indicators, 8 per areaoEconomic exclusion oExclusion from social services oExclusion from civic and political participation Threshold is 9 out of 24 possible deprivations, but other possible thresholds tested 8. Profiles of exclusion 9. Different combinations of individual risks, drivers and local context produce different levels of social exclusion If you are young person, with low education, living in village, with single companyyou face high risk of exclusionand secondary education doesnt help much in these conditions+while vibrant business environment makes a lot of difference+ economic centers offer more opportunities (even with low education)+ + + +and much more if you are educatedSource: RHDR Beyond Transition: Toward Inclusive Societies, 2011 10. DEVELOPMENT THAT LASTS: THE AFFORDABLE HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX 11. Environmental Footprint of Consumption12.0 UAE Qatar10.0Estonia8.0Denmark USAKuwait Mongolia6.0Nepal4.0GhambiaChina India2.0Armenia DR Congo Mozambique0.0 0.2000.3000.4000.5000.6000.7000.800Human Development Index0.9001.000 12. Affordable HDI: Why this index? It measures whatis achieved, and at whatcost Measure of development: leveland ability tosustain Proposed for Armenia, currently tested for Europe Still aproposal, with open questions:o Sustainability indicators o Ideal vs available indicators o Dynamics and substitutions 13. Affordable HDI ConstructionStatusAffordabilityContextHDIEHDIAHDI 14. Environmental indicators: status AreaIdeal indicator(s)Available indicator(s)WaterWater pollutionAccess to improved water sourceAirAir pollutionAir pollution PM10SoilShare of degraded soilsNatural resources depletion (% of Gross National Savings)ForestLoss of forestation relative to base yearForest area, % relative to reference year (1990)Biodiversity Loss of biodiversity HabitatShare of population covered by Access to improved waste collection and sanitation facilities processing 15. Environmental indicators: sustainability AreaIdeal indicator(s)Available indicator(s)WaterSustainability of water resource useWater withdrawal as share of internal resourcesAirPurification of air emissionsSoilRate of soil degradationForestRate of forestation loss relative to base yearBiodiversityMeasures to protect biodiversityShare of terrestrial and marine protected areasHabitatShare of waste processed or recycledShare of renewable and sustainable energy 16. Sustainability indicators DimensionIdeal indicator(s)Available indicator(s)Long and healthy life Healthy or Disability Free Life ExpectancyDisability Free Life ExpectancyKnowledgePersistence to last grade of primary, total (% of cohort)Quality of education results of comparable testsA decent standard of Sustainability of current General government gross living consumption model debt (% of GDP) CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) Energy use (kg of oil equivalent) per $1,000 GDP (constant 2005 PPP) 17. EHDI, AHDI and losses due to nonsustainability 18. Contribution to non-affordability 19. ArmeniaLong and healthy life 1.0000.716 0.733 0.571 22%0.7504DevelopmentHuman Development Index Extended Human Development Index AHDI Affordable Human Development Index % losses due to non-sustainability0.5005 0.2506Clean and balanced environment70.000KnowledgeExtended Human Development Index AHDI Affordable Human Development IndexSustainability A decent standard of livingLong and healthy life StatusLife expectancy index Life expectancy at birthKnowledge 0.855 74.2Education index Mean Years of Schooling Expected Years of SchoolingAffordabilityHealth AffordabilityDisability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY), per 1000 pers0.93132Education AffordabilityPersistence to last grade of primary, total (% of cohort)A decent standard of living 0.758 10.8GNI index GNI per capita (USD PPP)Clean and balanced environment0.566 5,188120.92497.7Standards of living Sustainability0.790General government gross debt (% of GDP)35.1Energy use (kg of oil equivalent) per $1,000 GDP (constant 2005 PPP)175Environment Index Improved water source (% of population with access) Air pollution PM10 (micrograms per cubic meter) Natural resources depletion (% of GNI) Forest area (% of base year, 1990) Waste management, Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access)Environmental AffordabilityWater withdrawal - Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (% of internal resources) Terrestrial and marine protected areas (% of total territorial area) Share of energy from renewable sources0.786 98.6 56.2 0.9 75.0 90.20.54436.48.0 35.7Context Health expenditure, private (% of GDP)2.6Health expenditure, public (% of GDP)2.0Health expenditure, total (% of GDP)4.4Public spending on education, total (% of GDP) HDI Loss due to inequality in education (%) PISA Score on MathematicsHDI Loss due to inequality in income (%)10.86.5GINI index30.9..HDI Loss due to inequality in life expectancy (%) Physicians (per 1,000 people)14.9 3.8Pupil-teacher ratio, secondary6.7Nurses and midwives (per 1,000 people) Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)4.8Fixed broadband Internet subscribers (per 100 people) Internet users (per 100 people)2.8Improved water source (% of population with access) Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access)3.7 98.6 90.2Pupil-teacher ratio, primary3.2Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) Firms offering formal training (% of firms)19.344.0 125.0 30.4Multidimensional poverty index (%)National Council on Sustainable Development Total Ecological Footprint (global ha per capita) Total biocapacity (global ha per capita)Current-1.014.9Biocapacity (Deficit) or Reserve (global ha per capita) Bird species, threatened12.016.0Mammal species, threatened9.028.6Plant species (higher), threatened1.00.0Final consumption expenditure, etc. (% of GDP) Electric power transmission and distribution losses (% of output) Informal payments to public officials (% of firms) Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) Unemployment, youth total (% of total labor force ages 15-24)90.8CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita)1.58545.51.7 0.7 20. QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE DATA NEXUS: MICRONARRATIVES 21. Why the micronarratives? QxQcombine the best from Qualitative and Quantitative research Zoom in and Zoom outsee the pattern and investigate a case study Suitable for all stage of policy process: o o o oUnderstanding Planning Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Could be a tool of empowerment and trust building 22. How it works? Vestibulum nec libero at libero condimentum condimentum ut at neque.PastMaecenas pellentesque porttitor lacus, eget venenatis ipsum eleifend sit amet.PresentPeople tell stories about the topic and tag them against some questionsFutureWhen we get more and more stories patterns start emerge easy to catch by human eye, hard to compute less sensitive to number of stories, more sensitive to topicPatterns and stories help identify issues, solutionsand actions and create feedbackloops, involving people in solutions and monitoring 23. Where we implement it? Montenegro Environmentally protected areas Montenegro Civil service and civilians Serbia Roma people Belarus, Russia, Ukraine Chernobyl-affected areas Belarus people with disabilities Georgia, Kyrgyzstan youth perception of development UNDP internal business processes 24. CooperationCompetition Thanks to Borko Vulikic [email protected] for this caseCorruption 25. Jeeps and Sheeps Cluster of stories re: o o o oCommunities Revenues Source of incomes Limitations of income or business activities Dig into the stories o o o oJeep tours were organized to protected areas but they raise dust clouds which spoil milk, the raw material for cheese cheese is major local commodity and source of incomes Solution o Move jeep trail 500 m from villageThanks to Borko Vulikic [email protected] for this case 26. Mihail Peleah, UNDP BratislavaAndrey Ivanov, EU FundamentalRegional Center [email protected] Agency [email protected]