undp-ova analiza zelenih poslova u hrvatskoj

8/3/2019 UNDP-ova analiza zelenih poslova u Hrvatskoj

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Green jobs in CroatiaAnalysis of linking economic growth, the reduction of GHG emissions and the promotion of

social development in Croatia

UNDP, 2010


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Translation to English:

Ivor Bukovac, Sonja Protic


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Introduction

Do investments in renewable energy and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions present an

unnecessary cost at a time when we witness the fall in production and GDP? Or do they offer the

possibility to develop the local economy, create jobs and competitive Croatian products? This

analysis deals with these questions, attempting to identify strategic areas and achievable goals forthe implementation of energy efficiency in building construction and the production from renewable

energy sources in Croatia. The analysis provides an overview of the potential number of green jobs

through the achievement of those goals, estimates the total reduction in greenhouse gas emissions,

reducing fossil fuel imports and the size of the investment.

Not all green jobs are necessarily decent. Green jobs need to be respectful and protective not only

for the environment, but also to provie goo working conitions an secure the workers rights.

UNDP is underlining the importance of green jobs also being decent jobs, which take into account

occupational health, safety, career prospects and adequate wages. Therefore, a green job need to

uphel certain job stanars, protecting peoples livelihoos, rights an sense of ignity.

The main reasons for launching this initiative are a large number of unemployed persons in Croatia

(322.600 in March 2010), a high share of energy imports, the need to reduce greenhouse gas

emissions (Kyoto Protocol obligations through the recent commitment of The European Union and

international obligations after 2012) and the low share of generation from renewable energy

sources.

In 2010, about 5,8% (1.139 GWh) of total electricity consumption is required to be generated from

renewable energy sources. This percentage does not include the production from large hydropower

plants. However, it is considered that the results achieved will largely miss the set target. During2008 the production of electricity from renewable energy sources accounted for 1,3% of the total

production (with the exception of large hydropower plants) and is not expected to significantly

increase until 2010. The Energy Strategy [4] gives an overview of the great potential of the domestic

heat and electricity production from renewable energy sources in Croatia, sets goals for 2020 and an

indication for the year 2030. This analysis is based on information and targets, used in the Energy

Strategy.

In 2008 Croatia has imported over 55% of energy [3] and it is estimated that the share of imports will

increase to approximately 70% until 2020. Imports of energy directly reflect negatively on import-

export balance, contributing to greater indebtedness. Furthermore, a high share of energy importincreases Croatias epenence on energy supply.

Board for compliance with the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol (UN Kyoto Protocol Compliance

Committee) has recently banned Croatia from emissions trading until 3,5 MtCO2 gets removed from

the Initial Report of the emission balance. The disputed amount of 3,5 MtCO2 has been previously

adopted by the Parties to the 2006 Convention in Nairobi but not by the foregoing authorities later

on. Therefore, the Croatian Kyoto target equals 29,777 MtCO2, while overall emissions amounted to

32,385 MtCO2 in 2007 [6], meaning that Croatian greenhouse gas emissions were 2,6 million tons

above the accepted goals of the Kyoto Protocol in 2007. If these emissions are not reduced until

2012, Croatia will have to buy certificates on the international market (calculating with the price ofbeginning of 2010 (12 / ton) the annual expense amounts up to EUR 30 million).


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The emphasis of the analysis

As outlined in the introduction, the aim of this analysis is an attempt to answer the question of the

priority areas for the development of green jobs in the Croatian energy sector, to discover the

employment potential, the ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the value of the total

investment. The emphasis of the analysis is placed on technologies that could be realized in privatesurroundings, ie on the domestic market, smaller systems that will contribute to the diversification of

local energy sources and to those who have the least impact on the environment.

As a backgroun for making this report weve use a report "Nees Assessment for the transfer of

technology" which is part of UNDP / GEF project MEPPPC by Ekonerg [7]. The purpose of the report

was to identify priority measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, for which purpose a

multicriteria analysis was made by 20 experts from the Croatian Energy Institute Hrvoje Pozar and

Ekonerg. The multicriteria analysis is based on a total of 39 different measures from multiple sectors

and for evaluating individual measures following criteria was set:

- Positive development effects of individual measures (in the form of employment, productionincrease, export opportunities increase, agricultural safety and sustainability)

- Possibilities of application of measures or technologies (marginal costs of emission reduction- kn/tCO2, commercial readiness and availability of technology or measure, the applicability

depends on cultural and socioeconomic background of existing resources)

- Contribution to the objectives of climate and energy policy (reducing greenhouse gasemissions, the indirect impact on other emissions such as SO2, NOX and fine particles, and

energy conservation through energy efficiency and renewable energy sources).

As a result of the multicriteria analysis, the following measures to reduce emissions of greenhouse

gases were rated the highest grades:

The use of biomass in cogeneration and bio-heating plants

Energy efficiency in buildings

Use of solar thermal systems

Production and use of bio-fuels

Wind farms

The measures stated were used in this analysis to assess the possibility of creating new green jobs,the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, saving fossil fuels and decreasing the total

investment.


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Green Jobs and global energy trends

When classifying green jobs, it is necessary to distinguish three different types of jobs - directemployment (equipment production and maintenance), indirect (accompanying industry) and

induced employment (new jobs that occur because of daily consumption of directly and indirectly

employed persons) [8].

Currently there are over 2,3 million employees in the field of renewable energy sources. Half of the

number of employees refers to the area of biomass and bio-fuels, more than 600 thousand to the

production of solar thermal systems, 300 thousand to wind energy, 200 thousand to the production

of photovoltaic systems and it is estimated that only in the U.S. in the sector of energy efficiency

there was a total of 8 million green jobs in 2006 [8]. Employment growth in the renewable energy

sector equally takes place in the developed world (260 thousand employed in the renewable energysector in Germany, 200 thousand in Spain, 450 thousand in the U.S.) as well as in other countries

(million employees in the sector of renewable energy in China).


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Figure 1: Installed capacity in MW of new resources in 2008 year in the EU [9]

In 2008 there has been more wind power installed in the European Union than any other energy

source, while Photovoltaics took third place as per total installed capacity. World renewable energy

industry is growing rapidly every year - the increase of grid-connected photovoltaic systems equals to

more than 60% per year.

Figure 2: Average annual increase in the use of renewable sources, 2002-2006 [10]


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Solar thermal systems

Croatias geographical position and mild climate provides optimal conditions for the use of solar

thermal systems. However, due to lack of incentives, the installed area of solar panels falls behind

the developed neighboring countries (four times fewer collectors per capita than neighboringSlovenia [11]). Experience gained in the UNDP energy efficiency project shows that an investment in

a complete system for preparing hot water for an average household costs approximately HRK 25

thousand and the entire amount returns in a period between 5-10 years (through energy savings,

depending on the location, frequency of use and fuel used). With 30-40% subsidy of equipment

(which is recently available in four counties of the continental Croatia) the return on investment has

been reduced to 3-8 years, while further energy price increases, due to the expected liberalization of

energy markets, will further reduce the payback time.

New Energy Strategy [4] recognizes the potential of solar thermal systems and sets the goal of 35-

fold increase in the installed area of solar collectors by 2030 (which would mean 563 m2 per 1.000inhabitants, a total of 2,5 million m

2installed and 12,2 PJ of energy produced in 2030). As an example

of such an installation we have the case of Cyprus in 2008, which led with 730 m2

installed per 1.000

inhabitants (30% more than the Croatian goal for 2030).

The proposed objective under this analysis for solar thermal systems is achieved by 2020. The

objective of the Energy Strategy envisages the same by 2030 (ten years ahead of schedule). Based on

current prices of equipment, the total investment in such an installation would have amounted to

USD 1,9 billion, with an annual turnover of USD 120 million.

Annual emission reduction by the realization of target proposed would amount to 1,6 million tons ofCO2 (at 470 kgCO2 / MWh from electricity substituted by solar thermal systems). Comparison with


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recent Austrian experiences [11] show that achieving such an objective (the required 220.000 square

meters of collectors per year) would result in 1.300 direct new employees and another 2.000 indirect

employees a year by 2020.

According to the number of employees in the manufacturing of solar thermal systems leading

countries are China (600 thousand employees), Germany (19 thousand), Austria (6,5 thousand) andGreece and Spain with 3 thousand jobs [11].

Implementation of energy efficiency in buildings

According to estimates, 80% of the total number of housing units in Croatia has the lowest energy

category [12] (the energy needed for heating is between 200-250 kWh/m2 per year). Currently there

are no incentives or obligations to improve the energy performance of existing apartments or

houses. New changes in legislation require that every newly constructed house or apartment meet

set energy standards and existing ones, used for rent or sale must obtain their energy card, which

will make energy consumption visible. Great potential for job creation in the construction industry

lies in the application of better insulation of existing buildings.

With the implementation of energy efficiency in 20% of the total number of housing units in Croatia

(280.000) over the next 10 years and with an investment of USD 10.000 for each existing home or

dwelling, the total investment would amount to USD 2,8 billion (USD 280 million per year).

Experiences gained in the existing UNDP project talk about the required three man-months for a

single dwelling unit, which ultimately means creating 7.000 direct green jobs a year and least that

many indirect jobs created.

An average Croatian household spends 0,8 toe heating per year[3]. Achieving this goal (decreasingthe energy consumption in 20% of housing units per square meter from 250 kWh/m

2to 75 kWh/m

2


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would mean an annual saving of 150.000 toe (6,3 PJ). With a ton of CO2 emissions at 0,3 toe per year

emissions reduction would amount to 500.000 tCO2. In doing so, it is important to mention that the

total investment made would pay itself back through savings on heating bills during ten years only

(or less, depending on the cost of heating, which is in a constant upward trend).

Application of biomass

According to the latest Forest Management Plan based on the forest management plans for 2006-

2015, 42% of Croatian territory is considered as forest (of which 95% are natural forests, and 5% are

planted). As demonstrated by the results of the project BIOEN [13] of all energy sources in Croatia,

biomass has the greatest economic potential, offers the best opportunity of employment, production

of energy from renewable sources and reducing greenhouse gas emissions (because the trees and

plants during their growth absorb CO2, which is later emitted by combustion, biomass is carbon-

neutral). Biomass offers great potential in the use of thermal energy (or bio-heating plants or

individual pellet-compressed stoves, using dried wood instead of gas or oil), biogas (related to cattle

farms), production of bio-fuels and cogeneration (producing both heat and electric energy).

In 2007, after defining a price for an incentive tariff for electricity generated from biomass, investors

interest for biomass has emerged. But since the price for heat-energy is not defined most of the

projects do not anticipate the utilization of heat, making the overall efficiency of the projects

developed low (for electricity only). This represents a barrier to development of bio-heating plants

and biomass district heating.


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Estimates of the application of biomass in Croatia indicate a possibility of opening 5.000 direct green

jobs, with an additional 55.000 indirect and induced green jobs [14]. This analysis assumed achieving

the goals envisaged by the Energy Strategy for 2030 in 2020 (ten years before the deadline).

The new Energy Strategy estimates the potential of biomass up to 93,5 PJ (in 2005, the total

consumption of primary energy amounted to 413,24 PJ [3]) and sets targets for a utilization of 72% ofenergy resources by the year 2030 [15], which amounts to 68,72 PJ. Identified options for the use of

energy from biomass are (calculation based on the Energy Strategy [16]):

- heat production in cogeneration and industrial boilers - 27 PJ- production of pellets and briquettes (dried dense wood) - 25.2 PJ- production of electricity (total installed electrical power of 420 MW)

Croatias total investment in this area (thermal stations, heating system, boilers and technology for

the production of pellets) is approximately equal to its investment in electricity generation (USD 2,3

billion with the cost of the technology on 2009 level), so that the total investment amounts to USD

4,6 billion.

Using biomass at the targeted level would help reducing emissions caused by electricity production

by 1,5 million tons of CO2 (calculated with 7.500 hours at rated power and an emission coefficient of

470 kgCO2/MWh) and additional 1,7 million tons of CO2 could be reduced in heat production from

pellets and briquettes (calculated with 1 tCO2 from 530 m3

natural gas substituted by biomass). This

would lead to a total emission reduction of 3,2 million tones of CO2.


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Wind power

Construction of 1.200 MW wind farms by 2020, as envisaged by the Energy Strategy, would mean

1.200 new green jobs created directly and at least another 1.000 indirect jobs, considering a local

production of 75% of the components (calculation based on [17]). Annual reduction in CO2 emissions

would amount up to 1,3 million tons (calculated with 2.200 hours at rated power and an emissioncoefficient of 470 kg CO2/MWh).

The introduction of an incentive tariff for electricity from renewable energy sources has resulted in

great interest of investors, therefore, by the beginning of 2009 the Ministry of Economy, Labour and

Entrepreneurship received requests for almost 6.000 MW of new installed capacities in wind energy

(representing 150% of todays total installed capacity of the Croatian electricity power system) [18].

Croatian company Konar has recently in collaboration with 19 companies (out of which 10 belong to

Konar Group) built its first win power agregate of 1 MW an is in evelopment of a 2,5 MW wind

power agregate) [19].

The total investment for planned 1.200 MW, according to the prices in late 2009 (2.250 USD / kW of

installed capacity) would amount to EUR 1,8 billion, while the total energy production would amount

to 2,64 TWh (at 2.200 working hours at nominal power).

Proposed measures to create green jobs in the analyzed sectors

- Establishment of micro-credit lines at commercial banks (preferential interest rates realizedin cooperation with CBRD and Environment Protection Fund) for the installation of solar

heating systems, insulation of residential units and biomass-fired furnaces

- Establishment of feed-in tariffs for heat from renewable energy sources (expanding toencourage the installation of renewable energy systems producing heat on other counties by


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offering incentives in the form of co-financing of investments by local communities and

EPEEF)

- Redirect the announced funding to encourage buying a housing unit in relation to investmentincentives for improving the thermal insulation of new and existing housing units

- The legal obligation to cover a minimum share of heat energy consumption with its ownproduction when constructing new buildings (depending on the surface of the building, 30-

70%)

- Encouraging (attractive credit, tax relief, etc.) companies engaged in production technologiesand services for renewable energy

- Standardization of the quality of biomass and quality certification of solar thermal systemsfor sale

- Organization of training for the expected positions required in the renewable energy sector(special emphasis on the unemployed, employed in shipbuilding and the accompanying

industrial, rural areas, war veterans) to change the program of secondary education and

vocational training for adults

- Facilitate market price of electricity and additional taxation of energy products - increasingenergy prices contributing to the attractiveness of investing in renewable energy and energy

efficiency, while energyprices for poor households can be solved by targeting assistance.

Conclusion

Sector Sector goals by

2020.

Direct

green

jobs

Indirect

and

induced

green jobs

Reduction

in annual

emissions

in 2020.

(tCO2)

Total

investment

(USD)

Annual

energy

output in

2020.

Energy efficiency

in Building

EE measures

use in 20% of

existing housing

units

7.000 7.000 0,5 million 2,8 billion 6,3 PJ

Biomass use Achieve goals

set in 2030

Energy strategy

5.000 55.000 3,2

million

4,6

billion

68,7 PJ

Solar thermal

systems

Achieve goals

set in 2030

Energy strategy

1.300 2.000 1,6

million

1,9

billion

12,2 PJ


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The main objective of the analysis is to start discussions on the potential utilization of renewable

energy and energy efficiency through local recruitment. The results of the analysis should be seen In

this way: While this analysis talks about 1.200 directly employed in wind turbines production that

number may be several times higher if the competitiveness of domestic industries producing for

export exceeds domestic needs. Creating a favorable climate for green jobs in energy means

including not only the economy but also politics, local communities, civil society, trade unions,

employers, etc. Given the huge potential that Croatia has to produce its own renewable energy, this

time of crisis should be used to redefine development areas and priorities. If we were taught

anything by this crisis, it is that sustainable development has no alternative.

Sources

Available at: http://www.poslovni.hr/144563.aspx

Regulation on minimum share of electricity produced from renewable energy sources and

cogeneration whose production is promoted, Official Gazette no. 22, 2007.

Energy in Croatia 2008th, Annual Statistical Report, Ministry of Economy, Labour and

Entrepreneurship

Energy Strategy of Croatian, Official Gazette no. 130, 2009.

UNFCCC Compliance Committee: 2009. Available at:

Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction, National Inventory

Report 2009, Submission to the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, 2009

Ekonerg (UNDP-GEF for MEPPPC): RH, training activities to mitigate climate change: needs

assessment for technology transfer, 2005.

UNEP: Green Jobs - Towards Decent Work in a Sustainable, Low-Carbon World, 2008.

EWEA: Wind energy - the facts, 2009. Available at http://www.ewea.org/index.php?id=11

New Energy Finance, 2008. Available at http://www.newenergyfinance.com/

EUROBSERVER: Solar Thermal Barometer, June 2007.

Zeljko Hrs Borkovic, Energy Institute Hrvoje Pozar, 2008.

Julius natives and others: BIOEN - The use of biomass and waste: Previous results and future

activities. Energy Institute Hrvoje Pozar''''. Zagreb, 1998.

Zeljko Tomsic, Igor Raguzin: Strategy and regulation of renewable energy sources in Republike

Wind power Production

1200 MW

Wind power

1.200 1.000 1,3 million 2,25 billion 9,5 PJ

TOTAL 14.500direct

jobs

65.000indirect

and

induced

jobs

6,6 million(21%

current

Croatian

CO2

emissions)

11,55

billion

96,7 PJ (25%immediate

energy

consumption

in 2020.)


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Hrvatske, 5th Balkan Power Conference, Panel Session on RES, Sofia, Bulgaria, 2005

Ministry of Economy, Labour and Entrepreneurship, UNDP: Upgrading the energy strategy and

implementation of the Croatian, 2008.

Dalibor Salopek: The use of biomass for energy purposes, the basis for the development of the

Croatian Energy Strategy, May 2008

Stjepan Car, Miroslav Maerid: Possible contribution of renewable sources of economic

development, Professional Conference "Renewable Energy in Croatia", Zagreb, 2006

Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science: Analysis of the technological platform for

wind farms in Croatia, the study developed in collaboration with HEP-Renewables, 2009

Stjepan Car: The possibility of domestic employment in the production of renewable energy

sources, Round Table EU and developing renewable energy sources in Croatia, Green Action, 2010

Photo source: UN Photo, UNDP Croatia, DOOR

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