University Student Load Projections

Robert McCormack, Director, Planning Services

University Managers’ Group Meeting 16 September 2010

Why do we do projections?

Why do we do projections?

To plan and allocate resources in line with expected numbers of students

How do we do our projections?

How do we do our projections?

• Planned intakes by funding source and course

• Retention rates – analysis of cohorts

• Average load (EFTSL) per enrolment

• Average weighted load (WEFTSL) per enrolment

• Load distribution across faculties and schools

• Load distribution across discipline clusters

• Estimated parameters for new courses

Effectiveness of Projection Model 1 Load by Source of Funds and Broad Course Type,

Current versus Projected Full-Year, 2010 (as at 6 September 2010)

Effectiveness of Projection Model 2 Load by Source of Funds and Broad Course Type,

Current versus Projected Full-Year, 2010 (as at 6 September 2010)

2011 Budget Projection 1Projected Income for Commonwealth-Supported Load (Draft as at 9 September 2010)

  2009 2010 2011

Load (EFTSL)

• Commonwealth-Supported Student Load 12,119 12,826 13,431

• Funding Agreement Target Load 11,690 11,970 12,173

• Over/Under Enrolment (in current year) 429 855 1,258

CGS Amounts ($'000)

• Funding Agreement Base CGS Amount for Target Load (incl capital) 110,286 117,427 121,871

• Adjustment for Over/Under Enrolment -244 11,536 12,187

• Base CGS Amount for Load (incl capital roll-in) 110,042 128,963 134,059

• Loadings (Regional, Enabling & Medical) 1,293 1,396 1,484

• Compensation for Changes in CGS Funding Rates 3,390 6,674 8,377

• Total 114,725 137,033 143,920

Student Contribution Amounts ($'000)

• Estimated Student Contributions 84,319 87,847 92,934

Total Amounts for Commonwealth-Supported Load 199,043 224,880 236,854

2011 Budget Projection 2Domestic Non Fee-Paying Load (Draft as at 9 September 2010)

  EFTSLWeighted

EFTSL% Weighted

EFTSL

Architecture, Landscape & Visual Arts 788.9 1,379.9 6.13%

Arts, Humanities & Social Sciences 2,104.8 2,675.7 11.88%

Business School 1,969.7 2,123.1 9.43%

Education 242.9 453.0 2.01%

Engineering, Computing & Mathematics 2,475.9 4,520.4 20.07%

Indigenous Studies 70.0 106.9 0.47%

Law 1,171.2 1,461.3 6.49%

Life & Physical Sciences 2,702.1 5,344.7 23.73%

Medicine, Dentistry & Health Sciences 1,275.9 3,010.3 13.37%

Natural & Agricultural Sciences 755.8 1,445.2 6.42%

Total 13,557.2 22,520.5 100.00%

2011 Budget Projection 3International On-Shore Coursework Load (Draft as at 9 September 2010)

  EFTSLWeighted

EFTSL% Weighted

EFTSL

Architecture, Landscape & Visual Arts 155.7 272.2 5.44%

Arts, Humanities & Social Sciences 194.3 251.2 5.02%

Business School 975.1 1,056.8 21.13%

Education 48.5 90.4 1.81%

Engineering, Computing & Mathematics 824.9 1,533.6 30.67%

Indigenous Studies 3.1 4.8 0.10%

Law 115.4 143.9 2.88%

Life & Physical Sciences 404.8 802.6 16.05%

Medicine, Dentistry & Health Sciences 258.8 598.9 11.98%

Natural & Agricultural Sciences 128.0 246.3 4.93%

Total 3,108.7 5,000.8 100.00%

2011 Budget Projection 4Research Training Scheme Load (Draft as at 9 September 2010)

Faculty EFTSLWeighted

EFTSL% Weighted

EFTSL

Architecture, Landscape & Visual Arts 21.7 21.7 1.24%

Arts, Humanities & Social Sciences 197.6 197.6 11.29%

Business School 41.8 41.8 2.39%

Education 69.6 69.6 3.98%

Engineering, Computing & Mathematics 118.5 219.0 12.51%

Law 18.4 18.4 1.05%

Life & Physical Sciences 262.0 523.4 29.90%

Medicine, Dentistry & Health Sciences 220.6 386.5 22.08%

Natural & Agricultural Sciences 140.5 272.2 15.55%

Total 1,090.7 1,750.3 100.00%

2011 Budget Projection 5International On-Shore HDR Load (Draft as at 9 September 2010)

Faculty EFTSLWeighted

EFTSL% Weighted

EFTSL

Architecture, Landscape & Visual Arts Total 4.4 4.4 0.51%

Arts, Humanities & Social Sciences Total 31.0 31.0 3.64%

Business School Total 32.6 32.6 3.82%

Education Total 8.4 9.4 1.11%

Engineering, Computing & Mathematics Total 145.2 274.6 32.20%

Law Total 1.9 1.9 0.23%

Life & Physical Sciences Total 97.7 195.3 22.90%

Medicine, Dentistry & Health Sciences Total 44.6 87.3 10.23%

Natural & Agricultural Sciences Total 112.2 216.3 25.36%

Total 478.1 852.8 100.00%

Projection to 2020Projected Student Loads by Source of Funds(Draft as at 9 September 2010)

Further Information

Executive Information System (EIS)

http://www.planserv.uwa.edu.au/eis

EIS UWA Projected Student Enrolments and Load Pages

http://www.planserv.uwa.edu.au/eis/t_and_l?p=65663#el_pj

EIS Resourcing Pages

http://www.planserv.uwa.edu.au/eis/budget_information

Contacts 1

Mr Robert McCormack Director, Planning ServicesPhone 6488 2816Email Robert.McCormack@uwa.edu.au

Mr Luke Minchin Manager, Statistical ServicesPhone 6488 3673Email luke.minchin@uwa.edu.au

Ms Christina Miller Manager, Planning SupportPhone 6488 3662Email christina.miller@uwa.edu.au

Mr Stanley Liang Information Analyst, Statistics OfficePhone 6488 3683Email stanley.liang@uwa.edu.au

Contacts 2

Mr Ian Baker Associate Director, Financial Planning (Financial Services)Phone 6488 3224Email ian.baker@uwa.edu.au

Mr Koon Quek Budget Analyst, Financial Planning (Financial Services)Phone 6488 3218Email koon.quek@uwa.edu.au