Update on Renewables & System

IntegrationPaolo Frankl, Renewable Energy Division

10 October 2017, Lisbon

© IEA 2017

RED- changing work framework

Contributions to Strategic IEA Outputs• WEO• ETP• IDR’s• ESAP• Costing studies

Participation in Specific Projects• Training• Country/Region Studies

International Institutions and Initiatives

• G7/G20• IRENA• REN21• SE4ALL• CEM• Others

Core Analysis

• MTRMR• Policy Analysis• Technology Status

and Prospects• System Integration

Key Publications

Association• China• Indonesia• Thailand• India• Morocco• Singapore

Accession countries• Mexico• Chile

Other countries• Brazil• South Africa• Sub-Saharan Africa• Central Asia

+ +

© IEA 2017

Renewable Policy Analysis

• Joint RE Policy Database with

IRENA

• Input to In-Depth Reviews (IDR)

of Country Energy Policies

• Assessment of effectiveness

and cost-efficiency

• RE Heat Policy

• Aligning RE and EE policies

© IEA 2017

Advanced biofuel growth rates well below required levels

Acceleration will require specific policy support for advanced biofuel technologies

© IEA 2017

Renewable power substituting fossil fuels in end-uses

Beyond current uses, renewable electricity can substitute fossil fuels in direct uses in

buildings, industry and transports, directly or through electrochemistry/electrolysis

Power plants

IndustrySteam

Force

Electrolysis

BuildingsHeating

Cooking

Lighting

Feedstock, process

agents, fuelTransportsEVs

H-rich fuels

© IEA 2017

IEA System Integration of Renewables analysis at a glance

• Over 10 years of grid integration work at the IEA

- Grid Integration of Variable Renewables (GIVAR) Programme

- Use of proprietary and external modelling tools for techno-economic grid integration assessment

- Global expert network via IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes and GIVAR Advisory Group

- Dedicated Unit on System Integration since June 2016

- Part of delivering the IEA modernisation strategy

Technical Progress &

Tracking

2011 2017

Framework, Technology,

Economics

2014 2016 2017

Policy Implementation

© IEA 2017

IEA System Integration of Renewables analysis since 2014

Workshops and dissemination

events

Regional Latin America training

(2014/15/16);

New Delhi/Bangalore (2015);

Bali Clean energy Forum (2015/17);

Beijing (2016/17); Astana (2016);

Johannesburg (2016);

New Delhi (2017);

Mexico City (2017).

Since 2014, IEA System Integration analysis covered over 20 countries in the five continents.

Association and partner countries have been systematically prioritized.

Thailand – Grid

Integration

assessment

© IEA 2017

Different Phases of VRE Integration – Towards Sector Coupling

Electricity only accounts for around one fifth of total final energy demand today. The next rise in

renewables will require multiplying their uses in buildings, industry and transport

Phase Description Country Examples

1 VRE capacity is not relevant at the all-system level Most countries, incl.

Mexico, Indonesia,

South Africa

2 VRE capacity becomes noticeable to the system operator Brazil, China, India,

Sweden, Texas

3 Flexibility becomes relevant with greater swings in the

supply/demand balance

Italy, Germany,

Portugal, Spain, UK

4 Stability becomes relevant. VRE capacity covers nearly

100% of demand at certain times

Ireland, South

Australia, Denmark

5 Structural surpluses emerge;

electrification of other sectors becomes relevant

6 Bridging seasonal deficit periods and supplying non-

electricity applications; seasonal storage & synthetic fuels

© IEA 2017

The phases of System Integration

Power systems can be defined by the dimensions of the challenge to integrate VRE

IE DK

DE ESUK IT PTGR

BRCL

IN NZCN AT

SE CAISO

ERCOT

AU

ID ZA

PJM MX

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Phase 4 - Short-term stability

Phase 3 -Flexibility is key

Phase 2 - Betteroperations

Phase 1 - Norelevant impact

Notes: AT = Austria; AU = Australia; BR = Brazil; CL = Chile; CN = China; DE = Germany; DK = Denmark; ES = Spain; GR = Greece; ID = Indonesia; IE = Ireland; IN =

India; IT = Italy; MX = Mexico; NZ = New Zealand; PT = Portugal; SE = Sweden; UK = the United Kingdom; ZA = South Africa. PJM, CAISO and ERCOT are US energy

markets.

Source: Adapted from IEA (2016a), Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2016.

© IEA 2017

Phases 3 & 4: System transformation

Integrating large shares of VRE requires system transformation

Policy and market framework

System and market operation

Actions targeting overall systemActions targeting VRE

Leve

l of

VR

E p

enet

rati

on

Flexible resourcesplanning & investments

Grids GenerationDemand shaping

Storage

System-friendly VRE deployment

System services

Location

Technology mix

Distributed resources integration

Integrated planning

Generation time profile

© IEA 2017

Recent publication: Status of Power System Transformation 2017

• Overview of trends and developments in the power

sector

- System Integration of Renewables

- Future of local grids

• Provides over two dozens of best practice

examples for integrating wind and solar power

• Introduces a framework for assessing power

system transformation, applied to case studies

- Indonesia, South Africa, Mexico, Australia