update on renewables & system integration · update on renewables & system integration...
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Update on Renewables & System
IntegrationPaolo Frankl, Renewable Energy Division
10 October 2017, Lisbon
© IEA 2017
RED- changing work framework
Contributions to Strategic IEA Outputs• WEO• ETP• IDR’s• ESAP• Costing studies
Participation in Specific Projects• Training• Country/Region Studies
International Institutions and Initiatives
• G7/G20• IRENA• REN21• SE4ALL• CEM• Others
Core Analysis
• MTRMR• Policy Analysis• Technology Status
and Prospects• System Integration
Key Publications
Association• China• Indonesia• Thailand• India• Morocco• Singapore
Accession countries• Mexico• Chile
Other countries• Brazil• South Africa• Sub-Saharan Africa• Central Asia
+ +
© IEA 2017
Renewable Policy Analysis
• Joint RE Policy Database with
IRENA
• Input to In-Depth Reviews (IDR)
of Country Energy Policies
• Assessment of effectiveness
and cost-efficiency
• RE Heat Policy
• Aligning RE and EE policies
© IEA 2017
Advanced biofuel growth rates well below required levels
Acceleration will require specific policy support for advanced biofuel technologies
© IEA 2017
Renewable power substituting fossil fuels in end-uses
Beyond current uses, renewable electricity can substitute fossil fuels in direct uses in
buildings, industry and transports, directly or through electrochemistry/electrolysis
Power plants
IndustrySteam
Force
Electrolysis
BuildingsHeating
Cooking
Lighting
Feedstock, process
agents, fuelTransportsEVs
H-rich fuels
© IEA 2017
IEA System Integration of Renewables analysis at a glance
• Over 10 years of grid integration work at the IEA
- Grid Integration of Variable Renewables (GIVAR) Programme
- Use of proprietary and external modelling tools for techno-economic grid integration assessment
- Global expert network via IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes and GIVAR Advisory Group
- Dedicated Unit on System Integration since June 2016
- Part of delivering the IEA modernisation strategy
Technical Progress &
Tracking
2011 2017
Framework, Technology,
Economics
2014 2016 2017
Policy Implementation
© IEA 2017
IEA System Integration of Renewables analysis since 2014
Workshops and dissemination
events
Regional Latin America training
(2014/15/16);
New Delhi/Bangalore (2015);
Bali Clean energy Forum (2015/17);
Beijing (2016/17); Astana (2016);
Johannesburg (2016);
New Delhi (2017);
Mexico City (2017).
Since 2014, IEA System Integration analysis covered over 20 countries in the five continents.
Association and partner countries have been systematically prioritized.
Thailand – Grid
Integration
assessment
© IEA 2017
Different Phases of VRE Integration – Towards Sector Coupling
Electricity only accounts for around one fifth of total final energy demand today. The next rise in
renewables will require multiplying their uses in buildings, industry and transport
Phase Description Country Examples
1 VRE capacity is not relevant at the all-system level Most countries, incl.
Mexico, Indonesia,
South Africa
2 VRE capacity becomes noticeable to the system operator Brazil, China, India,
Sweden, Texas
3 Flexibility becomes relevant with greater swings in the
supply/demand balance
Italy, Germany,
Portugal, Spain, UK
4 Stability becomes relevant. VRE capacity covers nearly
100% of demand at certain times
Ireland, South
Australia, Denmark
5 Structural surpluses emerge;
electrification of other sectors becomes relevant
6 Bridging seasonal deficit periods and supplying non-
electricity applications; seasonal storage & synthetic fuels
© IEA 2017
The phases of System Integration
Power systems can be defined by the dimensions of the challenge to integrate VRE
IE DK
DE ESUK IT PTGR
BRCL
IN NZCN AT
SE CAISO
ERCOT
AU
ID ZA
PJM MX
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Phase 4 - Short-term stability
Phase 3 -Flexibility is key
Phase 2 - Betteroperations
Phase 1 - Norelevant impact
Notes: AT = Austria; AU = Australia; BR = Brazil; CL = Chile; CN = China; DE = Germany; DK = Denmark; ES = Spain; GR = Greece; ID = Indonesia; IE = Ireland; IN =
India; IT = Italy; MX = Mexico; NZ = New Zealand; PT = Portugal; SE = Sweden; UK = the United Kingdom; ZA = South Africa. PJM, CAISO and ERCOT are US energy
markets.
Source: Adapted from IEA (2016a), Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2016.
© IEA 2017
Phases 3 & 4: System transformation
Integrating large shares of VRE requires system transformation
Policy and market framework
System and market operation
Actions targeting overall systemActions targeting VRE
Leve
l of
VR
E p
enet
rati
on
Flexible resourcesplanning & investments
Grids GenerationDemand shaping
Storage
System-friendly VRE deployment
System services
Location
Technology mix
Distributed resources integration
Integrated planning
Generation time profile
© IEA 2017
Recent publication: Status of Power System Transformation 2017
• Overview of trends and developments in the power
sector
- System Integration of Renewables
- Future of local grids
• Provides over two dozens of best practice
examples for integrating wind and solar power
• Introduces a framework for assessing power
system transformation, applied to case studies
- Indonesia, South Africa, Mexico, Australia