usulan perencanaan produksi dengan metode …
TRANSCRIPT
USULAN PERENCANAAN PRODUKSI DENGAN
METODE AGGREGATE PLANNING PADA
PRODUK GREY BOARD NON LAMINATING
DI PT. PKNI
SKRIPSI
Oleh :
IMAM RAHARJO
201310215155
PROGRAM STUDI TEKNIK INDUSTRI
FAKULTAS TEKNIK
UNIVERSITAS BHAYANGKARA JAKARTA RAYA
2017
Usulan Perencanaan..., Imam, Fakultas Teknik 2018
Usulan Perencanaan..., Imam, Fakultas Teknik 2018
Usulan Perencanaan..., Imam, Fakultas Teknik 2018
ABSTRAK
Imam Raharjo 201310215155. Usulan Perencanaan Produksi dengan
Menggunakan Metode Aggregat Planning pada Grey Board Non Laminating
(GBNL) di PT. PKNI.
Grey Board Non Laminating adalah lembaran kertas yang digunakan oleh
konsumen untuk membuat berbagai macam produk, misalnya kalender, cover buku,
kotak makanan dan kerah baju. Pada PT. PKNI permasalahan yang berkaitan dengan
Grey Board Non Laminating adalah perusahaan kurang tepat dalam meramalkan
permintaan dan merencanakan produksi. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah 1) Menentukan
metode peramalan yang tepat diantara Moving Average, Weight Moving Average dan
Single Exponential Smoothing dalam meramalakan produk Grey Bord Non
Laminating. 2) Menentukan variasi apa yang tepat diantara Variasi Tingkat
Persediaan, Tingkat Tenaga Kerja dan Jam Kerja dalam merencanakan produksi Grey
Board Non Laminating pada periode April 2017-Maret 2018. Metode peramalan yang
dibandingkan adalah Moving Average, Weight Moving Average dan Single
Exponential Smoothing. Perencanaan produksi dengan menggunakan Metode
Aggregate Planning. Hasil temuan pengolahan data dan pembahasan diperoleh 1)
Metode peramalan yang tepat untuk meramalkan permintaan Grey Board Non
Laminating untuk periode April 2017- Maret 2018 adalah Metode Single
Exponenstial Smoothing. 2) Perencanaan produksi yang tepat untuk Grey Board Non
Laminating untuk periode April 2017- Maret 2018 adalah Variasi Tingkat Persediaan
dimana biayanya sebesar Rp 226.035.000,-/tahun yang memberikan penurunan total
biaya variasi persediaan sebesar 0.33%. Presentase perencanaan persediaan/bulan
sebesar 3.94%/bulan dari peramalan.
Kata Kunci : Peramalan, Aggregat Planning, Moving Average, Weight Moving
Average, Single exponential Smoothing
Usulan Perencanaan..., Imam, Fakultas Teknik 2018
ABSTRACT
Imam Raharjo 201310215155. Proposed Production Planning Using Aggregat
Planning Method on Gray Board Non Laminating (GBNL) at PT. PKNI.
Gray Board Non Laminating is a sheet of paper used by consumers to create
a wide range of products, such as calendars, book covers, food boxes and collar. At
PT. PKNI problems related to Gray Board Non Laminating is the company is less
precise in predicting demand and planning production. The purpose of this research
is 1) Determine the correct forecasting method between Moving Average, Weight
Moving Average and Single Exponential Smoothing in predicting product of Gray
Bord Non Laminating. 2) Determine what variations are right between the Inventory
Level Variation, Labor Level and Working Hours in planning the production of Gray
Board Non Laminating in the period April 2017-March 2018. The forecasting method
compared is Moving Average, Weight Moving Average and Single Exponential
Smoothing. Planning production using Aggregate Planning Method. The findings of
data processing and discussion are obtained 1) Appropriate forecasting method to
predict the demand of Gray Board Non Laminating for April 2017-March 2018
period is Single Exponenstial Smoothing Method. 2) Appropriate production
planning for Gray Board Non Laminating for the period of April 2017 - March 2018
is Variation of Inventory Level where the cost is Rp 226.035.000, - / year giving the
total inventory cost decrease by 0.33%. Percentage of inventory planning / month of
3.94% / month of forecasting.
Keywords: Forecasting, Aggregat Planning, Moving Average, Weight Moving
Average, Single Exponential Smoothing
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KATA PENGANTAR
Assalamualaikum. Wr . wb
Puji Syukur kepada Allah SWT yang telah memberikan rahmat dan
karunia-Nya sehingga peneliti dapat menyelesaikan proposal skripsi yang berjudul
“USULAN PERENCANAAN PRODUKSI DENGAN METODE AGGREGATE
PLANNING PADA PRODUK GREY BOARD NON LAMINATING DI PT. PKNI ” dapat
diselesaikan. Penulisan skripsi ini dibuat untuk memenuhi salah satu syarat
kelulusan dalam strata satu di Universitas Bhayangkara Jakarta Raya.
Penulisan skripsi ini tidak lepas dari bimbingan, saran, dan bantuan baik
moral dan materil, dorongan serta keritikan dari berbagai pihak. Kesempatan ini
penulis akan menyampaikan ucapan terima kasih serta penghargaan yang setinggi-
tingginya kepada:
1. Ibu Ismaniah, S,Si.,MM., Selaku Dekan Fakultas Teknik Universitas
Bhayangkara Jakarta Raya.
2. Ibu Denny Siregar, ST., M.Sc. Selaku Ketua Program Studi Teknik
Industri Universitas Bhayangkara Jakarta Raya.
3. Ibu Helena Sitorus, ST.,MT., selaku dosen pembimbing I penulisan skripsi
Universitas Bhayangkara Jakarta Raya.
4. Bapak Ir. Zulkani Sinaga.,MT., selaku dosen pembimbing II penulisan
skripsi Universitas Bhayangkara Jakarta Raya.
5. Kepada Bapak/Ibu dosen yang telah banyak memberi dukungan dan
bantuan akademis dalam penulisan ini..
6. Bapak Dauddy Bahar manager HR&GA yang telah memberikan izin
kepada kami untuk melakukan penelitian.
7. Bapak A. Rizal selaku kepala departemen, Bapak Widodo selaku Kepala
design dan pembimbing lapangan, Ibu yani kepala PPIC dan staf
marketing, Terimakasih Atas Bimbingan selama kami melaksanakan
penelitian di PT. PKNI
8. Teman-teman Teknik Industri angkatan 2013 yang selalu memberi
semangat dalam menyelesaikan penulisan skripsi ini.
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DAFTAR ISI
Halaman
LEMBAR PERSETUJUAN .......................................................................... ii
LEMBAR PENGESAHAN ........................................................................... iii
LEMBAR PERNYATAAN ............................................................................ iv
ABSTRAK ...................................................................................................... v
ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................... vi
LEMBAR PERNYATAAN PUBLIKASI ..................................................... vii
KATA PENGANTAR ..................................................................................... viii
DAFTAR ISI ................................................................................................... x
DAFTAR TABEL ........................................................................................... xiii
DAFTAR GAMBAR ...................................................................................... xvii
BAB I PENDAHULUAN ............................................................................... 1
1.1. Latar Belakang .......................................................................................... 1
1.2. Identifikasi Masalah .................................................................................. 3
1.3. Rumusan Masalah ..................................................................................... 4
1.4. Batasan Masalah........................................................................................ 4
1.5. Tujuan Penelitian ....................................................................................... 4
1.6. Manfaat penelitian ..................................................................................... 4
1.7. Metode Penelitian...................................................................................... 5
1.8. Sitematika Penulisan ................................................................................. 5
BAB II LANDASAN TEORI ........................................................................ 7
2.1. Peramalan (forecasting) ............................................................................ 7
2.1.1. Manfaat Peramalan.......................................................................... 7
2.1.1. Ketepatan Peramalan ....................................................................... 7
2.2. Metode Time Series ................................................................................... 8
2.2.1. Pola Siklis ....................................................................................... 8
2.2.2. Pola Musiman ................................................................................. 9
2.2.3. Pola Horizontal ............................................................................... 10
2.2.4. Pola Trend ....................................................................................... 10
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2.3. Pergerakan Rata-Rata (moving avarage) .................................................. 10
2.4. Rata-rata Berat Bergerak (weight moving avarage) .................................. 11
2.5. Expontial Smoothing ................................................................................. 13
2.6. Tracking Signal ......................................................................................... 14
2.7. Proses Verifikasi ........................................................................................ 15
2.8. Perencanaan Aggregat ............................................................................... 17
2.8.1 Tujuan Perencanaan Aggregat ......................................................... 17
2.8.2 Biaya Perencanaan Aggregat........................................................... 18
2.9. Strategi Aggregat ....................................................................................... 18
BAB III METODOLOGI PENELITIAN .................................................... 20
3.1. Lokasi Penelitian ....................................................................................... 20
3.2 Jenis Penelitian ........................................................................................... 20
3.3 Waktu Penelitian ........................................................................................ 20
3.4. Teknik Pengumpulan Data dan Pengolahan .............................................. 20
3.4.1. Teknik Pengumpulan Data .............................................................. 20
3.4.2. Pengolahan Data ............................................................................. 21
3.5. Metode Perencanaan Produksi Aggregat .................................................. 22
3.6. Analisis ...................................................................................................... 22
3.7 Kesimpulan ................................................................................................ 23
3.8. Kerangka Berfikir...................................................................................... 24
BAB IV ANALISIS DATA DAN PEMBAHASAN ..................................... 25
4.1 Deskripsi Umum Perusahaan ..................................................................... 25
4.2 Analisis Data .............................................................................................. 25
4.3. Metode Usulan Peramalan ........................................................................ 26
4.3.1. Moving Average (MA) .................................................................... 26
4.3.2. Weight Moving Average (WMA) .................................................... 30
4.3.3. Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) .............................................. 34
4.4 Hasil Peramalan Terpilih............................................................................ 39
4.5 Verifikasi Forecast..................................................................................... 40
4.6 Tracking Signal .......................................................................................... 42
4.7 Perencanaan Aggrergat .............................................................................. 44
4.7.1 Variasi Tingkat Persediaan ......................................................... 44
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4.7.2 Variasi Tingkat Tenaga Kerja ..................................................... 46
4.7.3 Variasi Tingkat Penambahan Jam Kerja Karyawan.................... 49
4.7.4 Perbandingan Variasi aperencanaan Produksi ............................ 50
4.7.5 Perhitungan Biaya Perusahaan Sebelumnya ............................... 52
4.7.6 Perbandingan Biaya Perusahaan Sebelumnya dengan Usulan
Perencanaan ................................................................................. 53
BAB V PENUTUP .......................................................................................... 54
5.1. Kesimpulan ............................................................................................... 54
5.2. Saran .......................................................................................................... 54
DAFTAR PUSTAKA
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DAFTAR TABEL
Halaman
Tabel 1.1 Produksi dan Permintaan ....................................................................... 2
Tabel 2.1 Perhitungan Pergerakan Rata-rata .................................................... 11
Tabel 2.2 Nilai Pembobotan ............................................................................. 12
Tabel 2.3 Perhitungan pergerakan Rata-rata .................................................... 12
Tabel 2.4 Hasil Peramalan ................................................................................ 13
Tabel 4.1 Data Permintaan Grey Board Non Laminating ................................ 26
Tabel 4.2. Hasil Perhitungan Peramalan Metode Moving Average untuk n=2... 27
Tabel 4.3 Hasil Perhitungan Peramalan Metode Moving Average untuk n = 3.... 28
Tabel 4.4 Hasil Perhitungan Peramalan Metode Moving Average untuk n = 4….. 29
Tabel 4.5 Perbandingan Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) Metode
Moving Average ............................................................................... 30
Tabel 4.6 Hasil Perhitungan Peramalan Metode Weight Moving Average
untuk n = 2 ....................................................................................... 31
Tabel 4.7 Hasil Perhitungan Peramalan Metode Weight Moving Average
untuk n = 3 ....................................................................................... 32
Tabel 4.8 Hasil Perhitungan Peramalan Metode Weight Moving Average
untuk n = 4 ...................................................................................... 33
Tabel 4.9 Perbandingan Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) Metode
Weight Moving Average .................................................................. 33
Tabel 4.10 Hasil Perhitungan Peramalan Metode Single Exponential
Smoothing untuk α =0,66 .............................................................. 36
Tabel 4.11 Hasil Perhitungan Peramalan Metode Single Exponential
Smoothing untuk α = 0,5 ............................................................... 37
Tabel 4.12 Hasil Perhitungan Peramalan Metode Single Exponential
Smoothing untuk α = 0,4 .................................................................. 38
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Tabel 4.13 Perbandingan MAD (mean absolute deviation)
dari Metode Single Exponential Smoothing .................................... 38
Tabel 4.14 Perbandingan MAD (mean absolute deviation) dari Tiga
Metode ............................................................................................. 39
Tabel 4.15 Perhitungan Moving Range ............................................................ 41
Tabel 4.16 Perhitungan Tracking Signal .......................................................... 43
Tabel 4.17 Perhitungan Variasi Tingkat Persediaan ........................................ 46
Tabel 4.18 Perhitungan Variasi Tingkat Tenaga Kerja .................................... 47
Tabel 4.19 Total Hari Tenaga Kerja ................................................................ 49
Tabel 4.20 Perhitungan Penambahan Jam Kerja ............................................. 50
Tabel 4.21 Perhitungan Variasi Perencanaa Produksi ..................................... 51
Tabel 4.22 Biaya Perusahaan Sebelumnya ...................................................... 52
Tabel 4.23 Perbandingan Biaya Perusahaan dengan Usulan Perencanaan ...... 53
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DAFTAR GAMBAR
Halaman
Gambar 1.1 Grafik Data Produksi dan Permintaan .......................................... 3
Gambar 2.1 Pola Siklis ..................................................................................... 9
Gambar 2.2 Pola Musiman ............................................................................... 9
Gambar 2.3 Pola Horizontal ............................................................................. 10
Gambar 2.4 Pola Trend .................................................................................... 10
Gambar 2.5 Isyarat Arah .................................................................................. 14
Gambar 2.6 Moving Range Chart .................................................................... 16
Gambar 3.1 Kerangka Berfikir ......................................................................... 24
Gambar 4.1 Diagram Perbandingan Mean Absolute Deviasi ........................... 39
Gambar 4.2 Moving Range Chart .................................................................... 44
Gambar 4.3 Tracking Signal ............................................................................ 44
Usulan Perencanaan..., Imam, Fakultas Teknik 2018