dr:rn~Indnmwnd~ r ~ i u ' n o : d u r i i u s r u i ~ ~ j i d ~ : r n ~ u " u d ~ ' b u ~ ~ u ~ ~ ~ ~ n l ~ : ~ w ~ o d i ~ ~ ~ sejimds ~"s ld lur~uani~ lmiruani~~d~ F I ~ I U ~ U ~ I ' F ~ S : ~ W P ~ W I U + - I T ~ ~ ~ ~ H U W ~ ~ W ~ 6ibfi~n7%~nd~~uds:~nfl6dn67u&ad3~bn~lra~ U~!UFI~IUL~U+~% rj3:rw~s18iijB3m

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individuals who act in the name of the state) n ~ o n l m 3 : ~ l ~ o ~ ~ j i o n ~ ~ r n l r ~ f i ~ ~ ~ 1 ~ d y~~~nn3friilu~i~Vi9dT"$ (State action is the action taken by tbosa sating in the

name of th'e state.)' I~n i5dn?i~&k$8nei0<~d3tbn~1d~

LLuuf2a.J

Gu8 Lo X I Q ~ L ~ ~ % Q (Hans J. Morgenthau) L ~ ~ ~ M M % ~ o Politics among Nations :

The Struggle for Power and Peace Iufl n.n. 1948~ ~ f l M n l s d ~ : ~ ? n n 2 1 ~ ~ s ~ n 2 7 ~

~ $ i ~ a ~ d u ~ ~ n i s ~ d o ~ 5 : y \ i i ~ d 3 : ~ n f l ~ u ~ ~ d i i d 7 oditnsufiu igunR~~mn~unis#nw

ns~un7s?snadasuu ~ n 7 s G ~ l R ~ l ~ '

~uli?dLF(u?~uu~uuiud~~ds:~nR~nubawi: ;duuunisdnwuluuiu

dld7:bnR%oJ k l f n fl dubnof, Lon %IL~~RLJ uin. ~~:bIJof<% aigu (Richard C.

Snyder. H.W. Bruck and Burton Sapin) ~ i ? ~ h b R ~ o n f ~ ~ n i > ? b ~ f i t v f (analytical

framework) ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 ~ d l t l ~ 3 : b n ~ ~ 0 : ~ $ b ~ ~ 6 ? b b ~ ~ n l ~ f i n ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ l ~ ~ l ~ d 3 : b ~ f l ~ ~ ~

~ ~ : L ~ R ~ R ~ ~ ~ L ? W I U H M ' J ~ ~ O Foreign Policy Decision-Making : An Approach to the Study #a' v u

of International Politics lug n.R. 1962' &nsounisfinwilibnsi:~u ;anhotli~

n 5 i ~ u ~ i e l u ~ o u o ~ ~ d u u u sas Cu~llwni~ds:u~nuu~ni~nisiinn:d3a~u~m: miwu~nioud;iiwadonisrti~unuadi~ciuuluuineiiJdsnn~dmiuiTr~l~~nwin'u

nr&uocynds:~nsr unm~cinis~nw~5~~LPTuu~~uu16~iluoeii~ii uonoiniu lam4

kd>Jbnl (Joseph Frankel) 16L$uullfi&l h e Making of Foreign Policy' : An

Analysis df Decision-Making urwansoun?iufinuuu 'nis~m'rulas ~daIdlunirh.m

d u u i u i i ~ d ' r ~ ~ n d ~ ' u l i u o ~ ~ i i u ~ h ~ ~ u

d v d d e n ~ o u n i r i ~ n ~ i : ~ u u n 1 ~ 6 m R u ~ ~ d r i s m i i i ~un imgnua iu ia~~ iC(hn is

~minau~a~i lu?~uu~uuisdi~d~:mR~odi~a: f ia i~mi~m~u~atu $ i d i u i a k R u l a V U P

(Decision Makers) &f ?uni(EI$uEI~6fl~.~ tW11ul51 (Decision-Making Body) dJhI.4

Ill ~ o : ~ ~ u n r u : ~ u u n ? ~ f O ~ ~ ~ U I ~ ~ Q J ~ ~ : L ~ R Q : ~ ~ U S ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ ~ ~ % ~ R ~ ~ J V U n nniwuwG'oa (Setting) do~~ououhnc~mnmula &u~o mircu~~ciouaeii8nhR

o ~ i ~ u i n d s $ ~ ' d i u i a ~ ~ i d ~ u n i s ~ i ~ u a u ~ u u i u d i ~ d ~ : ~ n ~ ~u[ i?ud~du?rh

~n iwu?a~aud oiauunn?ic 9 oan~fiu 2 ds:mn l o ~niwu~n$ouniuuonunt

lutqud~if u q h ~ m w u ~ n ~ o u n ~ u u o n i f a : ~ f f u l $ ~ n d i ~ n ~ n i ~ d u ~ : n ~ i u

bndou~n~~:dnn~~u~nwm:bbn:~:~udi~ 6 ' ~ h uatdouii8nhn~uni.rn"in~mubuuiu w d a u - X di~da:~n9c~~nndi~f7uld i.rioia~~un.r:Cuu~~~aaun~d~~niw~~anKouniuuor~~mn~u

-I. 5~6nr5znrnr (Systemic Level) ~flu~niw b l ~ ~ 6 J V ~ u n l ~ ~ ~ n ~ : ~ ~ ~ ~ t ~ u

~5o.reCuIan (global level) d~bilu~oduodunuinbbnrubuulu~~d"~~l~u~idiul bbn:

1 ~ l ~ ~ 3 l ~ 1 ~ ~ ~ ~ 9 f t ~ ~ l d " 1 1 l ~ ~ ~ l d l ~ l ~ ~ ~ ~ T C b : ~ ~ ~ T C b ~ ~ d d d d ~ ~ ~ e ( ~ ~ ~ t ~ ~ d 0 ~ 7 2 b b j 0 ~

3:n<i~dmn~n'J~uu du n i s r w ~ ~ ~ ~ i s e n l i d o ~ u ~ n i f 7 u ~ ~ b " a u n ~ u q n i ~ ~ n n u ~ 8 u p

^?nqnni.rd?iquilu5 ~1.81. 1962 ni.rd~i?uW'U#.r:~.di~8~n'~ obu^Tni'bu?l n.81. 1971

n i x j l i ~~nnub iw ' n i uCnna~d i i ~ l u ' l n.R. 1990 uneni.rdu~niuuo~mniwl~-

~4unluEl n.R. 1991 ~ ~ l ~ ~ ? ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 U ~ ~ n 3 : ~ ~ ~ t ~ ~ k 3 ? ~ ~ d ~ ~ ~ i ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 6 n i 3

~mdidd.r:bnns:c'umna~u~nd.reailn~ (United Nations) n ~ ~ ~ ~ n 1 3 f i ~ ~ : ~ ~ i d

d3zln81 (International Monetary Fund, IMF) 8 ~ n i d n n (World Bank) bba:od6nl3 L= -

n i l f i ~ l i n (World Trade Organizations, WTO) u o n ~ i n a ~nlwbb?n~~uniuuon3:Cu b: . r : u u ~ ~ ~ u i u f i ~ n i ~ ~ i i n ~ n i ~ i d d ~ ~ ~ n . r : n u ~ i o l n n n ~ I n n ~ i l u d ~ u ~ ~ u L ~ U r n7niin

~ ~ . r w ~ i i o n n ~ i ~ ~ s n ' b u n ~ ~ . r . r w i 930's n~.r~Rnnin:uinuo~l3ngii~ ni3~~wZsruin

uoJI.rniomf n i ~ r i o n i ~ i i u s r n ~ i ~ d ~ t ~ n ~ ~ A ~ I W ~ ~ Q U T ~ S ~ ~ I ~ ~ J . ~ ~ W L ~ ~ ~ Q J ~ n i w ~ ~ ~ n ~ o u l n n iflu6u

d 2. ~z$nr%znrnru'ou (Subsystemic Level) bfluwniwbban6jouniuuonn

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udkd t~n&~u~linin~3'~~do{iincnunsr~~ioudoi~di~uin ~ ~ n : ~ 6 n ~ u I ~ f i i n ~ m

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lud?wd~du?fuuluuiudi~dsnn~ naiurv'uw'ua'~t~ii~nm:r'~uun"Jn'u~iu

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n s : n s ? c ~ d ~ n n a : f i n i s r d ~ u ~ ~ d ~ d o ~ ~ ~ ~ u ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ? i s t n i s ~ i d i u h n i i u ~ n ~ m u

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~~ud~u~~da:ds:~8uf l~~ i~ :~ ( /?us inn isd id q tdu?~ad/i?uuon~~fioain

ncns?~n~sdi~dr:icn~ ku"u u n u ~ n u o ~ Y ' m a n i n : ~ u ~ ~ ~ u n i ~ ~ ~ u o ~ ~ u ~ n i ~ ~ # ~ n ~doIM'nm:~~uun"J~aismi~~~~u~a~ont~uu~uu~u~wnsr(i$~ i cd~~mw~~nssud

f i ~ n i 1 ' n i 3 t d f I d ~ ~ ~ l t ~ ~ n a n i ~ (Bureaucratic politicsf

I. w a ~ s ~ ~ u a ~ o u ~ ~ n u ~ i u n i s ~ ~ n ~ ~ ~ u ~ s : u ~ m ~ ~ ~ = : ~ ~ ~ ~ i u u Ao:Ga~uau

1 v l ' < u ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ i u d ~ r u o n i ~ 1 ~ o n t d a 1 ~ d i u l ~ n i s d ~ ~ ' 6 m 1 u ~ 1 u u 1 u u " u ~ d u win

uuqnic~'Iandua~uio7n y uuodd?u~ inn i . rh~ ~v i i i uu inn i i a t~~ lun i~~ land i i

y u ~ a d d n . ~ . 1 d ~ ? i d ~ f i u ~ o ~ ~ ~ m ~ ? i u ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ u ~ 1 a r ~ a d s z ~ ~ 1 ~ $ v o d v ~ ? e f i n n i f ~ u ~

~ i ~ n d u ' n 1 ~ u n i r o ^ w i ~ 1 d d u n ~ i n ~ o d ~ ~ v ~ ' i d ~ u f i ~ n i f ~ u n i ~ ~ 1 a ~ ~ u ~ n i ~ r ! a n v ~ a # A ~n8ulflCunruc~uumf~wawoi~mifiiia Y'or1uani~~' IonviTa~n5u~~~K~vu' iv~~u

nani fot~~uadidln ~ ~ $ u a ~ C ~ l i n i ~ I l u ~ t % i ~ a ~ v ~ q u f i n n i f ~ n (where he stands

depends on where he sits)

2. hvrinqm ~ I l u ~ ~ ~ n i s & d ~ i i n ~ u l u ~ n i r ~ d ~ ~ i d ~ r ~ n a \ i l d i ~ i m ~ i ~ ~ ~ " L ~ riauiianfinh t0u~~qnirdnrn'uKudlxininiim (surprise) ~5ooiaiinisniclnisd '

~ioninbnii iarf iwbu uri~do~~~nisdu"uifinu"u (t%id.rt~nald~i~v~nifdu"ua:: ~find'u~wdriurfin aa::Iu~aruzdiii~fin#u~au

nls6n'nidllunl?tinr1. (Decision-Making in Crisis) d ~ ~ ~ I ~ J ~ ~ J R ~ ~ M ~ D L ~ o

~~rllu?nqnni.mla:qn~r~~nnKuatli~uin ~ i a ~ i l ~ ~ o i s r u ~ O ~ n i ~ ~ G a n ' l i i l J u i n

ai.rud?nnnjm j~iuaio~iin~u~unnr:~6nGulous:dod16nlu.r:u:r~sid!lunis sinEulo aiadil~nisn'sl'rwladonn~~~Gan~fl~wluuiu~~mndi~a~i~uinn'un~sKnGulo

lunl?:dnl ~ u n ~ d n w d o ~ n i s ~ ~ u ~ a v a d ~ f l i d ~ : ~ n f l ~ u n i ~ ~ ~ n q m ~ i u v a ~ rnauu

ii rwo (Glenn D. Paige) ~du?n 'u?nqnn i sd~n i~~~~ rLR:JimaJ unm fi aWu (Graham T. Allison) ~ ~ ~ ? n i r ? n ~ ~ n i l d ~ 3 ~ 1 ~ ~ tflufiadiddrh6q.j

ad1~1.m"niu niq:inqnd~fin#u~uuian.r~ tfluni~:lnqndA~rfu~dodic dardatui?uiu ~f l ids :~n f l~~n i iwnd . r :~un~~&7~q~~va~n i~ f i in '~qn~nn '1uda~f lu ?nqma~nifi ~ ~ i ~ : ~ ~ d ? u u ~ ~ ~ i u ~ ~ ; i ~ u ' i n ' u n 1 ~ : ^ 3 n ~ 6 1 d ~ d d u u u d ~ ~ a ~ ~ 1 ~ a n ~ ? n i n i~ : tdu~~s i i i0a~ i r f l~?n~mn~sd6 iun i~d i~ds :~n~ua~ds:~n~1u"~ rrfirJ'fliaio!

rqs7uiw~dadiu a n a ~ ~ ~ n f r r s : u ~ u u i u r ~ a ? u a o i u n ~ ~ d d r f i n # ~ a d i ~ d a ~ ~ a ~ nisd

l n u n ' o ~ i u ~ n ~ n n i s d ~ i n ~ ~ n n u r i u n u i u u ~ : n i . r d l n u d a ~ ~ w ~ r y ~ u l n ~ ~ n i s d rc~nnunSltni rfluinqnnisdd.r:Lnnd'

diu~lu'ryq? (Legislature) ~atduds~uva~niunuuatds:aiau In uA'q11.1 t ~u1~n~ni~l~q~7oeulainni.rnn"unr ~ J L B anm~oind.r:aiau f i adilfiuuaunuiu

1. unuin~uni.r~flr3'muih (Ratlficatlon) ni.rlflKmuiu'u~8udiuioua~~iuiiG- ~qq3drinominunodi ~.a'm~oulfl~i"~nffu~qua ~ d . r ni.rlflr3'nmu'wfi oni.rlfl

n ~ i u t d u v o u u o ~ d i u k ~ Y ' q q ~ d i a f f ~ ~ $ ~ q i (Treaty) d i l i u ~ i ~ i . r u a ~ ? ~ I ~ ~ i I i ~ u d.r:rn~iu ~ m u d n i ~ ~ ~ i $ ~ u ~ u r 3 ' ~ q i n ' u d f : ~ n ~ 1 ~ ~ 1 r l " r o d f t ~ n ~ 1 ~ ~ ~ r~uni fd ' i~w'u~=:

IflrYudsnnn .rau&iin~~rduarlo~n"~diui~a^adlm u ~ a ~ r ' ~ Iunaiu 7 n.rd ricy qid A r .*rd 4 diuu?ni.r~d~i~ifiud~=:~n810u0d~i~~ufia~~fir'un~iu~$uvou~ind~uii~Y'~qm%~na

ii~0uyinuua~d.r=:~ivun"~d~=:~n~1 A r ~~indiu9Guiycy3l$KmuiY'u m % ~ q i d d i u u ? n i ~ ~ d ~ i ~ i n ' u I J ~ ~ ~ n ~ ~ ~ u ~ ~ o = :

iiwsY'~5ula"ln?ukrd~du~~aa~fiud~rm~$u icindiuiiCuiyq~lrinorrlflKmuiuic ~'ryqia~uu"uiia=:lriiiwnli~5ul.a' n&r~nsiulannAd 1 da'tuinitau~au@ur

I $\

~ ~ n n u d k n i y r].r:muibufi pl .r5 S s h (Woodrow wllson) ua~~~?zoru in i f i ,

unuinrflu{dirlua=:w ~n5ulfl~fina'qqia'uCn7~ ~ ~ q f m u versailles) 6ulull n . ~ . i s l e I ~ e c i i t ~ a u a ~ u i u u n = : ~ ~ = : n 7 ~ 1 ~ ~ u n ~ ~ u m n ~ i i l a i ~ K ~ y i ~ u f i n i w ~ ~ a i 1 1 7 u d C : lornu ' ~ ~ n i w ~ $ ~ d . r = : % ~ i ~ m f n (Peace of Our Time) udd.ringii rdo

L. Y Y Y RnigJ (senate) ua~arufni l~iusa~Kyqiauu~ ~a:l~flr3'mu~uieiaQqqiauuu c i ? u r ~ u i i r 3 ' ~ q i a l i u 6 ~ f i ~ ~ ~ n = : ~ ~ n t n i ~ ~ ~ ~ i u f i b i n a a u l f l ~ ~ r i o~uiniuinrfiuld c i i y q i ~ G n ~ w ~ n f ~ i u ~ ~ ~ ~ a i ~ f Y ' ~ ~ u n ' u o ~ u ~ n i us :o ru in i$~~~d~ ikqq i~p~u f ln~a~ diuuund~~ninn'urua~uci~iu r3'yq1ruofGu (Treaty of Berlin) unuinni.r~flff iui~u

(Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty, SALT) l l ~ ~ l ~ ~ ~ ~ l ? ~ n l ~ ~ ~ ~ R i R ~ f (Strategic

A m Reduction Treaty. START) ~ l idn?iurh6qodi~d~dodf :~n81n"~~~o~ lwnrtt * a d u a ~ n i r m n s ~ ~ i a ~ ~ u n i r ~ i ~ ~ ~ a i ~ n n i ~ y n ~ ~ i ~ n f i1r:muitun ~ u u n i i n a f (Jimmy

Carter) r d~o laJ^m i un:dr:mu~h~ ~alafiq LU~ILU~ (Leonid Brezhnev) n~vi~Tcar?un

ki.~uiui?unilw$cb(qi SALTII i w 5 i . d 18 liquiuu n.R. 1979 dny~?suui o o ~ ~ n t u udu~uf i 3 unrinu n.R. I980 dremuituft n i i na f I&oSo~crn~~~uo~o~uSn iM

d?~~?ninir l f i%moiY'u i u d a n ~ i ~ ~ ~ s ~ n n ~ u d ~ n ~ f i d ~ c a ~ ? a ~ d ~ n ~ i r ~ ~ i ~ n r i w &4nifiamu dxmui'rmfl buua6 Lrunu (Ronald Reagan) UQJRM?~Y n d i d u i d 26 WqMlRU R.R. 1986 11 ' ~ ~ H ? ~ O L ~ S ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ J ~ I H W ~ V ~ I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ : ~ ~ B U L ~ L I ? ~ ' Y ' I R ~ J W ~ J

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1 Richard C. Snyder, H.W. Bruck and Burton Sapin, "The Decision Making

Approach to the Study of international Politics", in James N. Rosenau, (ed.),

lnternatlonal Polltlcs and Forelgn Pollcy : A Reader in Research and Theory, (New York:

The Free Press, 1969), p.202 . 2

Hans J. Morgenthau, Polltics among Nations : The Struggle for Power and

Peace, (New York : Alfred A. Knopf, 1967).

3 Richard C. Snyder, H.W. Bruck and Burton Sapin, (eds.), Forlgn Policy

Decision-Making : An Approach to the Study of lnternatiohal Politics, (New York : The \

Free Press, 1962).

4 Joseph. Frankel, The Making of Foreign Pollcy : An Analysis of Decision-

Making, (London : Oxford University Press, 1963).

6 ,-

Rosenau, op.clt., p.203.

7 Frankel, op.clt., pp. 9-10.

8 Henry A. Kissinger, "Domestic Structure and Foreign Policy", in Rosenau,

0 Charles F. Herman, "htgrnational Crisis as a Situational Variable", in ibid., pp.

409-421.

10 ~ i e n n ' ~ . Paige, The Korean Decision, (New York : The Free Press, 1968)

11 Graham T. Allison, Essence of Decision : Explaning the Cuban Missile

Crisis, (Boston : Brown, 1971).