v foro de política económica y mercado de capitales
TRANSCRIPT
V Foro de Política Económica y Mercado de Capitales Los inversionistas extranjeros como motor del desarrollo de los mercados emergentes
Securities Services
Armanda Mago
Cluster Head Latam
Agenda
1. Introducción – Citi en los Mercados de Capitales
2. Participación de extranjeros en mercados emergentes
3. Factores clave que incentivan la inversión de extranjeros
4. En dónde estamos y Qué más podemos hacer?
1
Citi facilita la inversión extranjera en los mercados de capitales globales y particularmente en los emergentes,
cubriendo 105 mercados a nivel global y mas del 95% de la capitalización de mercado global.
CITI – AMERICAS Argentina Brazil Canada Chile Colombia Mexico Panama Peru United States Venezuela
Costa Rica Bermuda Jamaica Uruguay
CITI – EUROPE Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom
Denmark Finland Norway Iceland Malta
ICSDs Clearstream Euroclear
Proprietary Branches Third-Parties
CITI – CEEMEA Bahrain Czech Republic Egypt Hungary Israel Kazakhstan Kuwait Morocco Nigeria Pakistan Poland Romania Russia Slovak Republic South Africa Turkey UAE (ADX) UAE (NASDAQ Dubai) UAE (DFM) Ukraine
Benin Bosnia-Herzegovina: (Sarajevo) Botswana Mauritius Burkina Faso Namibia Croatia Niger Estonia Oman Georgia Palestine Ghana Qatar Guinea-Bissau Saudi Arabia Ivory Coast Senegal Jordan Serbia Kenya Slovenia Latvia Tanzania Lebanon Tunisia Lithuania Togo Macedonia Uganda Mali Zambia Zimbabwe
CITI – ASIA Australia Bangladesh China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia New Zealand Philippines Singapore Sri Lanka Taiwan Thailand Vietnam
Citi a Nivel Global
2
Compromiso con los Mercados de Capitales
Citi: Cobertura Global y Local
Proprietary Sub-Custodians
Citi apoya las iniciativas regulatorias y de infraestructura para facilitar el flujo de inversiones y desarrollo de los
mercados de capitales.
4 Markets 61 Markets
8 Markets 6 Markets
Participación en la Industria Global
International Securities Services
Association (ISSA)
Association of Global Custodians
(AGC)
Securities Market Practice Group
(SMPG)
National Securities Market Practice
Groups
SWIFT Policy Committees
T2S Advisory & Task Force
Citi en Cifras
+20 años ofreciendo servicios de
custodia en Perú y globalmente
+$13 Trillones de activos bajo
custodia
+$100MM Inversión anual en
tecnología
3
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Volumen Negociado Anual US$ millones
Citi en el Mercado de Capitales Peruano
Acompañando el desarrollo del mercado de capitales y el acceso de inversionistas extranjeros al mercado local
1992 1995 - 2000 2001 - 2010 2011 - 2013 2014 - 2015
Lanza
Servicios de
Custodia
Estructura de
cuentas efectivo
para inversionistas
extranjeros
Liquidación
Custodio
con Cavali
Modelo
Liquidación
por Encargo
Préstamo
de Valores
MSCI
Consulta InPeru
Procapitales
2016
Proceso de
Exoneración al
IGK
Implementación de la
Retención a la
Ganancia de Capital
Record
Capitalización
Bursátil $160B
Record
Negociación
Bursátil $7.8B
Lanzamiento
MILA
Perú alcanza
grado de
inversión
Emisión de
letras del
tesoro
Perú se
reinserta en el
mercado
internacional
Market
Makers
Auto-
PreMatch
Auto-
Settlement
Implementación
Liquidación por
Encargo
1ra Emisión
Bonos
Soberanos
Exoneración
IGK
Fuente: MEF, BVL, Cavali. Elaboración Propia
Creación de
Cavali ICLV
4
Agenda
1. Introducción – Citi en los Mercados de Capitales
2. Participación de extranjeros en Mercados Emergentes
3. Factores clave que incentivan la inversión de extranjeros
4. En dónde estamos y Qué más podemos hacer?
5
Flujos de Inversión Hacia Emergentes
Los flujos hacia mercados emergentes vienen desacelerándose como resultado de la desaceleración económica
global y menores precios de commodities producidos por países emergentes.
Fuente: IMF, World Economic Outlook: Too Slow for Too Long; Chapter 2, April 2016
6
Profundidad de los Mercados Latinoamericanos
El desarrollar los mercados financieros se vuelve clave para mejorar el manejo de los flujos de capital de una
economía. Los mercados Latinoamericanos tienen el desafio de atraer inversión y competir con el mundo.
Cifras 2015
Capitalización de Mercado
(US$ millones)
Empresas Listadas
Capitalización de Mercado (% PBI)
Valor Negociado (% PBI)
Valor Negociado (US$ billones)
Global 61,781,129 43,539 98.7 169.6 99,760
EEUU 25,067,540 4,381 139.7 230.7 41,399
Asia 21,604,171 16,824 222.0 242.4 51,009
LATAM 1,281,785 1,203 33.6 15.3 559
Peru 56,556 212 29.4 0.8 1.5
Colombia 85,955 69 29.4 4.0 11.6
Mexico 402,253 136 35.2 9.1 103.7
Chile 190,352 223 79.2 8.2 19.7
Brazil 490,534 345 27.6 23.7 420.0
Indicador Definición
Valor Negociado (% de PBI) The value of shares traded is the total number of shares traded, both domestic and foreign, multiplied by their respective matching prices. Figures are single counted (only one side of the
transaction is considered). Companies admitted to listing and admitted to trading are included in the data. Data are end of year values.
Capitalización de mercado de empresas
locales listadas (En US$)
Market capitalization (also known as market value) is the share price times the number of shares outstanding (including their several classes) for listed domestic companies. Investment
funds, unit trusts, and companies whose only business goal is to hold shares of other listed companies are excluded. Data are end of year values converted to U.S. dollars using
corresponding year-end foreign exchange rates.
Empresas locales listadas
Listed domestic companies, including foreign companies which are exclusively listed, are those which have shares listed on an exchange at the end of the year. Investment funds, unit trusts,
and companies whose only business goal is to hold shares of other listed companies, such as holding companies and investment companies, regardless of their legal status, are excluded. A
company with several classes of shares is counted once. Only companies admitted to listing on the exchange are included.
Capitalización de mercado de empresas
locales listadas (% of GDP) Market capitalization (also known as market value) is the share price times the number of shares outstanding (including their several classes) for listed domestic companies. Investment
funds, unit trusts, and companies whose only business goal is to hold shares of other listed companies are excluded. Data are end of year values.
Valor Negociado (En US$)
The value of shares traded is the total number of shares traded, both domestic and foreign, multiplied by their respective matching prices. Figures are single counted (only one side of the
transaction is considered). Companies admitted to listing and admitted to trading are included in the data. Data are end of year values converted to U.S. dollars using corresponding year-end
foreign exchange rates.
Fuente: World Development Indicators, World Bank Group
7
10.8 (*)
(*) 10.8% calculado al incluir 50% de lo negociado por BAP, SCCO y BVN en NYSE
Participación inversionistas extranjeros en Latam
294
609 186
134
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
RV RF
Brasil
Cap Mkdo (USD Bn)
Inv Ext (USD Bn)
Peru incluye GDNs por US$ 3.1 bn.,
sin GDN seria 21%
RF: solo incluye Deuda Gobierno
Stock de Renta Variable y Fija
Volumen Transado Deuda Gobierno (Promedio mensual 2016)
82% 97%
18%
3%
19%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Colombia Chile Peru
Extranjeros
Locales81%
US 13.35 Bn US 9.50 Bn US 1.6 Bn
Fuente: Bolsa de Comercio de Santiago, Bolsa de Valores de Colombia, Cavali, MEF, Citi
Chile Colombia Peru Brasil
RV RF RV RF RV RF RV RF
% Extranjeros 9% 5% 6% 22% 4% 36% 39% 18%
8
Volumen y Composición BVL
6242
1899 515
1024
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Volumen (en millones de $)
Renta Variable Renta Fija
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
76% 80% 81%
69% 67%
54%
10% 8% 7%
15% 18%
29%
15% 12% 12% 16% 15% 16%
Renta Variable Renta Fija Operaciones de Reporte
9
Fuente: Bolsa de Valores de Lima.
El Mercado local tiene competencia …
NYSE (Monto negociado por año en US$ miles)
BVL (Monto negociado por año en US$ miles)
Fuente: Economatica
169,740
16,593
54,943
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2013 2014 2015 Sep-16
BAP BVL SCCO BVL BNV BVL
9,239,971
6,488,162
3,556,500
2,500,000
4,500,000
6,500,000
8,500,000
10,500,000
12,500,000
14,500,000
2013 2014 2015 Sep-16BAP NYSE SCCO NYSE BNV NYSE
667,827
249,466
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2013 2014 2015 Sep-16
Grana Y Montero BVL
514,055
180,011
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2013 2014 2015 Sep-16
Grana Y Montero NYSE
50 x
300 x
60 x
10
Agenda
1. Introducción – Citi en los Mercados de Capitales
2. Participación de extranjeros en Mercados Emergentes
3. Factores clave que incentivan la inversión de extranjeros
4. En dónde estamos y Qué más podemos hacer?
11
Factores que Impulsan la Inversion Los Mercados Emergentes compiten por atraer inversiones tanto Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED) como de
portafolio. Sin embargo algunos impulsores o inhibidores pueden diferir por lo tanto hay que echar una mirada
de cerca a la situación del mercado de capitales en particular.
EXTERNOS
Expectativa de Crecimiento (Var %
PBI)
Expectativas de tasas (tasa FED, tasas
locales)
Aversión al Riesgo (Calificación y
Spread Riesgo país)
Índices de Referencia del Mercado
de Valores
INTERNOS
Facilidad de movimiento de flujos de
entrada y salida
Marco Operativo Eficiente (Acceso, organización, infraestructura)
Disponibilidad de Activos y Liquidez
Entorno Tributario Local
Transparencia de Información (Gobierno Corporativo, Formación de Precios)
Régimen de Inversión de
Institucionales / Tamaño y
sofisticación de la industria
12
Agenda
1. Introducción – Citi en los Mercados de Capitales
2. Participación de extranjeros en Mercados Emergentes
3. Factores clave que incentivan la inversión de extranjeros
4. En dónde estamos y Qué más podemos hacer?
13
Situación de las Condiciones Macro
Perspectivas de Crecimiento, Estabilidad Macroeconómica y Política, Retornos Atractivos y Riesgo Soberanos
presentan condiciones favorables para atraer inversión y alocación de portafolios
Proyecciones
PBI Real % 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Canada 2.2 2.5 1.1 1.2 1.9 2.0
Mexico 1.4 2.2 2.5 2.1 2.5 2.7
Estados Unidos 1.7 2.4 2.6 1.5 2.2 2.1
Turquía 4.2 3.0 4.0 3.2 3.0 3.5
Vietnam 5.4 6.0 6.7 6.0 6.4 6.6
Proyecciones
PBI Real % 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Latino América 3.1 0.6 -0.5 -1.3 1.9 2.7
Peru 5.9 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.4 4.2
Argentina -0.1 -2.8 2.3 -1.2 3.0 3.5
Brasil 3.0 0.1 -3.8 -3.3 1.0 2.0
Chile 4.0 1.9 2.3 1.7 2 2.5
Colombia 4.9 4.4 3.1 2.2 2.8 3.2
Panamá 8.3 6.0 5.8 5.8 6.1 5.2
Perú
sobresaliendo
de sus
comparables
Niveles de
Riesgo por
encima de
Grado de
Inversión
Crecimiento
atractivo en
comparación a
mercados
desarrollados
Fuente:Bloomberg
Rating de Crédito Soberano ME
País Moody's Fitch S&P
Perú A3 BBB+ BBB+
México A3 BBB+ BBB+
Venezuela Caa3 CCC CCC
Brasil Ba2 BB BB
Colombia Baa2 BBB BBB
Chile Aa3 A+ AA-
Argentina Ca B B-
Panamá Baa2 BBB BBB
Rating de Crédito Soberano ME
País Moody's Fitch S&P
China Aa3 A+ AA-
India - BBB- BBB-
Corea del Sur Aa2 AA- AA
Russia Ba1 BBB- BB+
Turquía Ba1 BBB- BB
Vietnam B1 B+ BB-
PBI de economías desarrolladas y latinoamericanas Riesgo Soberano
14
Evolución de Aspectos Micro a través de los años Formal stock market regulatory authorities actively monitor market (e.g., SEC, FSA, SFC)
Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia Peru
2006 Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass
2010 Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass
2015 Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass
2016 Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass
Free and well-developed equity market Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia Peru
2006 Pass Pass Not Met Not Met Not Met
2010 Pass Pass Restricted Restricted Not Met
2015 Pass Pass Pass Pass Not Met
2016 Pass Pass Pass Pass Not Met
Stock Lending is permitted Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia Peru
2006 Pass Pass Pass Not Met Pass
2010 Pass Pass Pass Not Met Pass
2015 Pass Pass Restricted Restricted Restricted
2016 Pass Pass Restricted Restricted Restricted
Liquidity - Sufficient broad market liquidity to support sizeable global investment
Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia Peru
2006 Pass Pass Pass Not Met Not Met
2010 Pass Pass Pass Not Met Not Met
2015 Pass Pass Pass Restricted Not Met
2016 Pass Pass Pass Restricted Not Met
Short sales permitted Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia Peru
2006 Pass Pass Restricted Not Met Pass
2010 Pass Pass Restricted Not Met Pass
2015 Pass Restricted Restricted Restricted Restricted
2016 Pass Restricted Restricted Restricted Restricted
Fuente:FTSE Quality of Markets Criteria (Americas) as at September 2006, 2010, 2015 & 2016.
15
Situación de los Mercados de Latam al 2016
Fuente: FTSE Quality of Markets Criteria (Americas) as at September 2016.
16
Qué más podemos hacer …
Aspectos Tributarios
Alineamiento con otros mercados al tratamiento de ITF para no
domiciliados y reducir distorsiones.
Ejm. Colombia exonera a cuentas usadas para liquidación
y compensación. Brasil lo elimino desde el 2007. Chile
no tiene.
Mercado de Deuda
Evaluar incentivos y transparencia en precios en el mercado de deuda
soberana local. Extender la exoneración del IGK a instrumentos
de deuda corporativa
Ejm. Colombia las operaciones de deuda
soberana requiere registro de todas sus operaciones de
deuda y mantiene un mercado líquido
Gobierno Corporativo
Regulador con facultad para dar lineamientos de información y votación
para valores listados
Ejm. Brasil incluyo en su LGS facultad del regulador y
trabajando en voto remoto para facilitar participación
Préstamo de Valores
Inversionistas extranjeros requieren visibilidad a sus préstamos y
colaterales. Incorporar la figura del custodio en la liquidación de ventas
en corto.
Ejm. Colombia préstamo no esta atado a venta en corto y
custodio participa en la liquidación. Chile permite
garantía con T-bills en DTC
Se requieren cambios estructurales que aumenten la gama de activos invertibles, que generen incentivos y que
faciliten la negociación en la plaza local.
17
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