Vesikestävänkehityksenpullonkaula

Olli VarisMarko Keskinenet al.

Globaali talous

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

2000 2005 2008

CO20 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

2000 2005 2010

Foreign Direct Inv

Other countries

Other Asia Pacific

China

Other OECD

EU 0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

2000 2005 2010

GNI

Väestön kasvu 2050:Aasia: kaupungit 2xAfrikka: kaupungit 3xMuut: kohtalaisen vähän

5 x in 2000-2010

NexusAsiaWater-energy-food nexus: a cross-sectoral analysis of large Asian river basins

Background: increasing pressure on water• Water systems change• Water as a cross-cutter between

sectors• Water becomes an increasingly

competed, contested, conflicted and, consequently, highly political issue

• Capacity of the societies grows, butfurther problems emerge

• Governance paradigms needprofound revision towards cross-sectoral collaboration

Applicant (PI): Professor Olli Varis (olli.varis@aalto.fi)Site of research: Water & Development Research Group, Aalto University, FinlandDuration: 1.10/2013 – 31.9/2015 (2 years) + 2 monthsCall: Development research, targeted funding on ‘Water and development’

Share of world’s people:Countries: ½Basins: ¼

Nexus: Water – Energy – Food

• Launched: Bonn 2011• Widely promoted by

international agendas• Thinly researched• Experience lacking

WEF linkages deep

100+ suurpatoa suunnitteilla

Varastoaltaiden tilavuusNYT: ~5 km3

TULEVAISUUS: >100 km3 ?

MAP:

Mat

ti K

umm

u /

TKK

Mekong: esimerkkicontinues

• Suurin Mekong-joenvirtaamaa muuttavatekijä = vesivoimapadot

• Muitakin muutoksia: kasteluhankkeet, maankäyttö, veden laatu…

Vesivoimalle ja muulle kehitykselle sinänsä tarvetta

HAASTE: hyödyt ja haitat eri alueille ja ryhmille

FUEL SHARES OF WORLD TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY

13.5%

35.0%

21.2%

23.4%

6.9%

RenewablesOilNatural gasCoalNuclear

RenewablesOilNatural gasCoalNuclear

FUEL SHARES OF WORLD RENEWABLE PRIMARY ENERGY

SUPPLY

79.9%

0.2%

16.4%

0.3%

3.2%

Bioenergy, wasteWindHydro

Solar, tideGeothermal

UN agendas since Johannesburg 2002:“Diversify energy supply and substantially increase the global share of renewable energy sources”

96% uusiutuvasta energiasta

kytkeytyy veteen

Esimerkki: VESI & ENERGIA

IWRM vs. Nexus

IWRM (Integrated Water Resources Management); • a process which promotes the

coordinated development and management of

• water, land and related resources in order to

• maximise economic and socialwelfare in an equitable manner

• without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems and the environment.

IWRM NEXUS

Methodo-logical focus

integra on resource use efficiency + addressing externali es

across sectors (Hoff 2011)

Thema c focus

water, land and related resources water, energy, food

Underlying concept

Sustainability • Economic efficiency in water use

• Equity (access to all) • Environmental + ecological

sustainability

win-wins and op miza on, resource use efficiency in green economy

Official status /

recogni on

UN-approved (basically already in Rio 1992 + Johannesburg, Rio+20)

S ll largely lacking

Time as ‘dominant’

concept

10+ years (since Johannesburg 2002)

5+ years (since 2011)

Promoters GWP, DHI, donors, countries, river basin organisa ons (e.g. MRC)

Also more official

Germans, SIWI, IUCN-IWA, UNECE…

Western ministries + several organisa ons (that depend on funding)

Central Asia:Economic structure needs deep reform

WaterEnergy

Agriculture

More added value...

Secondary industries

Primary industries

Tertiary+ industries

...on less water + energy use

NATURAL RESOURCES

Agriculture, petroleum, etc

KNOWLEDGE

Hi tech, services, etc.

PHYSICAL PRODUCTION

Manufacturing

Water in All Policies

• We proposed a new concept• Analogy from Health in all Policies

Deliverables

• Special issue: Water• 5 other articles

Conclusions

Varis et al. (2012-2015) Based on several articles

Over 130 publishedarticles on global waterchallenges and on Asian large river basins @

wdrg.fi

• Extreme pressure on water in large areas of Asia

• Pressures on water are due to complexsocietal & environmental mix

• Water paradigms focus too much on direct(primary) uses

• Water-Food-Energy Nexus is useful if food and energy are of prime interest but we alertthat it is quite narrow

• Water policies and paradigms should beinternalized more rigorously to relatedsectors (vital e.g. to SDGs)

• Our results are largely universal and not Asia-specific