vietnam major report - vietnam market outlook february 2016 vn

7/24/2019 Vietnam Major Report - Vietnam Market Outlook February 2016 VN

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Tngquan kinh t 4

Thtrngbn l 8

Thtrngvnphng 13

Thtrngnh 18

Thtrngkhu cng nghip 25

Thtrngvn 29


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T N G Q U A N K I N H T


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BP. NGHIN CU CBRE CBRE Ltd. 2016 TRIN VNG TH TRNG BT NG SN VIT NAM 2016

5

TNG QUAN KINH T

D triqua giai onkinh tkh khnnm2008 -2012, VitNam vnghi nhnmctngtrngGDPthccao v nnhktnm2007, vimctngtrngGDP thctrung bnh hngnmln n6,15%.CcuGDP caVitNam angchuyndchsangcc ngnh snxut, xy dngv dchvtrong khinggp tcc ngnh nng, lm, ngnghipangb

thu hpli. GDP caVitNam cdonvokhong6,6% trong nm2016.

Trong nm2012, VitNam lnutin chngkinmcthngdthngmiktnm2007 vimctngtrngxutkhutrung bnh hngnmln n22% so vimctngtrngcanhpkhul 16%trong giai ontnm2010 - 2014. VitNam cdbo stiptctngtrngtheo xu hngny nhvo smrngcc miquan hvicc nctrnthgii, cthhinqua stngtrngcautncngoi v cc hipnhthngmitdo ck ktgny.

Nnkinh tVitNam, chibtph trong nm2016

utncngoi tiptcl nglcthc yspht trincannkinh tVitNam. Theo bo co tBTi chnh, 66% gi trxutkhucaVitNamctora bicc cng ty ncngoi anghotngtiVitNam. Cc cng ty ny nggp n

22% GDP cacncv 26% cho ngn sch cachnh ph. Gi trFDI thchintrong nm2015 ct14 tUSD, tng12% so vinm2014. FDI cdonstngmnhtrong huhtcc ngnh, cbitl may mc, xy dng, ngn hng, cng nghcaov btngsnnhvo hipnhTPP sckktunm2016.

khu vcngNam , victngcnghindincaCngngKinh tASEAN snng cao hnh nhcaVitNam trong v ngoi nc. AEC schnh thchnh thnh vo 01/01/2016. VitNam hinangxpth2 vgi trFDI nhnc chu , chsauTrung Quc. Dn strv chi ph longthpslnhngtc nhn quan trngtrong victhu ht vnutncngoi.

MtsvncncgiiquytVitNam duy trkhnngcnhtranh

Tuy nhin, tndngtiacc lich m cc hipnhv quan hmang li, VitNam cnphicithinnngsutlao ngcangidn. Mccnhtranhnhiukhnngstrnn gay gthnv bucchnhphphic nhngthay iph hpvchnh sch,cbitl vthu, c thcnhtranh trong cc thtrng khu vc.

V I T N A M

0%

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6%8%

9%

0

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4000 0005000 000

6000 000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F

%(y-o-y)

TVND

Nng, lm, ng nghip Sn xut Dch v GDP thc

Hnh 1: TngtrngGDP thc

Ngun: Oxford Economics, TngccThngk VitNam, Thng 12/2015.

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Btngsntrlimnhmsau nm2014 nhvolmpht v li sutthpcng vivicchtrtcc ngunutncngoi. Nh, tn dngthchpmua nh cymnhv cdonstng18% - 20% so vicng knmtrc, nhanh hnmctngtrngtrung bnh 14% - 15% trong giaion2012 - 2014 khi nnkinh ttngtrngchm.

Li sutvay thchpmua nh hintitrong thng12/2015 l 8,4%, thphnmcli suttrung bnh qutrcl 9,87% v mc11,2% trong nm2007.

Li sutcdonstngnhtrong nm2016,trong khi lmpht snnhtrong phmvi cho php,do tc ngcavicnng li sutcaFED lnutin sau mtthpk. Gi trVitNam ngkh c khnnggimsu ttc ngcavicFED nng li sut,v tc ngny cphnnh vo gi trhinticangtin. Tuy nhin, VitNam ngvnl nhntquan trngcncmtntrong nm2016bicuinm2015, Ngn hng nh ncthng bo s

p dngcchiuchnhtgi mi, phthuchnvo thtrng. Theo , tgi sbinngst hnvibinngthtrng, cbitl cc binnglinquan ncc vnkinh tvm, cung cu, v tc

ngcacc ngoitquan trngkhc.

Li sut, mclmpht v vay thchpmua nh sngvai tr quan trngtrong thtrngbtngsn

Xu hngcatn dngthchpmua nh scch nhiuhntrong tnglai. Cc tnglpang

tngtrng VitNam, l trung luv trn trung lu,svathc yvachnglitcc khonvaythchpmua nh. Tuy nhin, nhngtnglpny cnthntrngtrong nhngnmtido li sutsciuchnhtngthngxuyn hn.

Khng nhgi duv gi vng, thtrngchngkhon cdonshiphctrong nm2016

Thtrngchngkhon ckvngstmc650 - 670 trong nm2016, mtphnnhvo cc cphiubtngsnangchimn10% thtrngchngkhon. Ngoi ra, gi duc thgimsu hn

gy p lcln cc cng ty xngdu. Sstgimcagi vng, d khng quytlitnhgi du, cdonstiptctrong nm2016 v xungytrongnmtitrckhi c btksphchino.

V I T N A M ( T I P T H E O )

Hnh 2: Tngtrngcn cn thngmi

-10%

0%

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(50)

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50

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250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F

TUSD

Xut khu Nhp khu Cn cn thng mi Tng xut khu Tng nhp khu

Ngun: Oxford Economics, TngccThngk VitNam, Thng 12/2015.

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Hnh 4: uttrctipncngoiHnh 3: Chsgi tiu dng


V I T N A M ( T I P T H E O )

Ngun: Tngccthngk VitNam, Thng2/2015.

Ngun: Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam, Thng12/2015.

Hnh 5: Tgi hioi Hnh 6: VN Index, Lnggiao dch

Ngun: FPT Securities, Thng 12/2015.

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VnFDI(TUSD)

Vn FDI ng k Vn FDI thc hin

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2006

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USD

/VND

T gi USD/VNDbnh qun lin ngn hng

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CPIhngthng(%m-o-m)

CPIhngnm(

%y-o-y)

CPI hng nm (y-o-y) CPI hng thng (m-o-m)

Ngun: Tngccthngk VitNam, Thng 12/2015.

0

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VNIndex

Gi tr giao dch VN Index


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T H T R N G B N L


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0

100 000

200 000

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700 000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Ngu

ncung(NLA,

m2)

Ngun cung hin hu Ngun cung mi

Hnh 7: Ngun cung TTTM

Ngun: BP. Nghin cu CBRE, Qu 4/2015.

TH TRNG BN L

Nguncung khu vcngoi trung tm tiptctngnhmpngnhu cucangidn nikhu

Nguncung caTTTM TP. HCh Minh tnghn12 lnso vinm2007. Trong nm2015, tngnguncung mi ghi nhnxpx150.000 m2 dintchthcthu, mctngcao nhttrong tm nmtrli

y, tnmdn.

Trong ba nmti, ctnh mtlngnguncungtngngcngsctung ra thtrng ckhu trung tm v ngoi trung tm.

Dn nmticc vtr catikhu trung tmthnh phscynhanh tinxy dngtgianm2016. Dn nibtvidintch thcthulnhn40.000 m2: Saigon Centre v The One.

Dn nmtikhu vcngoi trung tm c xu hngpht trinvidintch mtsn ln, tch hpnhiutin

ch hnnhvo qutcn nhiuv chi ph tthphnkhu trung tm. Tikhu vcny, donminmsc t nhtmtTTTM khai trng. Cc nh bn lmrngtikhu vcngoi trung tm schyutptrung vo phn khc bnh dn, dnnvicmphncc iukhonthngmingy cng kh khnhn.

Tnh hnh thtrngtiptcdinbintt

Trong ba nmtrliy, cc TTTM milun ghi nhntllpycao n70% - 80% trong giai onukhai trng. Tuy nhin, iukhinchutlo lngl tclun chuyncao cakhch thu, bao gmcthnghiutrong v ngoi nc, chsau mtnm

hotng, do cc trung tm ny khng thnh cngtrong victhu ht khch mua smv thiuskhcbit. V vy, trong ba nmti, donkhch thu chchtvidintch lnsngy cng quan trngtrongsthnh cng caTTTM. Do , mcd nguncungtng, tltrngcacthtrngdonvntiptcduy tr mctrung bnh 10%. Mtvi TTTM ngoitrung tm c thcho khch thu chchtthu n60% dintch, hocdo chnh chuttvnhnh.

Cc vtr catikhu trung tm tiptccsnn, ko theo gi thu trung bnh tng. Tuy nhin mctngkhng cao do ngy cng nhiuTTTM khai trng

tikhu vcngoi trung tm. Gi thu trong nm2015gim10% so vinmtrcdo TTTM mikhai trngtrong nmunmngoi khu trung tm. Schnhlchgiagi thu khu trung tm v ngoi trung tml rtln. Gi thu timtTTTM chtlngcao tikhu trung tm c thln n250 USD/m2/thng.

T P. H C H M I N H

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Tltrng(%)

Githu(USD/m2/th

ng)

Gi thu T l trng

T H T R N G B N L

Thay ixu hngpht trinbtkpnhu cucakhch hng

Ngy cng c nhiuTTTM hon thnh cng vivicnilngquy nhcho ngincngoi tham gia kinhdoanh bn l VitNam stoiukincho nhiuthnghiugia nhpthtrngtrong thigian ti.

Theo ltrnh cam ktviWTO, ktthng 1/2015,VitNam mcathtrngbn lcho cc doanhnghipncngoi. Ttnhin vncn mtshnchvngnh hng v nh bn lncngoi trong mtstrnghpvnphipngcyu cucacccquan chcnngquy nhtrong Kimtra nhu cukinh t(ENT), nhngnhn chung cc thng tin nyccc nh bn lv chuthngng, cbitl nhngcng ty trong khiASEAN angquantm nvicthm nhpvo thtrngVitNam.

Nhu cuthu mtbngcathtrngbn ltrongnm2015 cdndtbismrngmnhmcacc thnghiutrong v ngoi nc, chtrtchccbicc thngvM&A trong ngnh F&B, thitrang v siu th. Xu hngny cdonstiptctrong nm2016. Cnhtranh cao trn thtrngcthdnnp lctngchi ph thu cho cc nvbn l.

Tuy nhin, nhu cutiu dng angcithinvitcchmv vnchannhtrong ngnhn. Trong dihn, nnkinh ttrong ncschnglitHipnhxuyn Thi Bnh Dng(TPP) v cc hipnhgiao thngtdo khc, ngitiu dng nhnchung ttin vngunti chnh cahtrong tnglai.

Hnh vi tiu dng angthay iv ngy cng tptrung vo tringhimmua smtngthhnl ccyutcbnnhgi cv san ton. btkpnhu cucakhch hng, chutcnuthnvo hotngnghin cuthtrng, so snh dntngng, nhmti nhvlidn camnh choph hphn. Cc TTTM hinhuc xu hngti ccungnh hng v p dngkhi nimmi: bn l-giitr, l khi nimkthploihnh vui chigiitrvo TTTM. Thtra xu hngny btutvinmtrc, cnhdubngvicra icaAeonMall QunTn Ph. TTTM ny tuy cch xa trungtm thnh ph45 pht li xe nhngrtthnh cng

trong victhu ht khch hng nhthngxuyn tchccc skinv imvui chi. Xu hngnyangctch ccymnhgnydo cc TTTMangtm cch mrngthtrngmctiu v thu htthm nhiukhch hng mi. Bn ltrctuyncngsl mtxu hngmikhi m ngy cng nhiungiVitNam sdngcc thitbcng nghcao v muasmtrctuynthngxuyn hn.

T P. H C H M I N H ( T I P T H E O )

Hnh 8: Gi thu v tltrng- TTTM


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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Ngu

ncung(NLA,m2)

MT BNG BN L

Nhiunguncung hntcc khu vcngoi trung tm

Ngun cung th trng tng 19% trong nm 2015 vs tip tc tng trong nm 2016. Phn ln ngun cungmi tptrung tikhu vcngoi trung tm do quttrong trung tm khng cn nhiu. D kin, byd nmi s cung cp hn 100.000 m2 din tch bn l

trong nm 2016. Vingroup sdn u vi ba d n(70.000 m2), cc dn khc c pht trin bi nhu t Malaysia v mt s cng ty trong nc.

Do cc d n ngoi trung tm thng nhm nkhch hng trung cp, vic m rng bn l s ch yutp trung vo th trng phthng, c bit i vingnh dch v n ung, siu th v ca hng tin ch.

Nhu cu v mtbngbn l dch chuyn t ccthng hiu cao cp sang cc thng hiu tm trung

S pht trin ca cc trung tm mua sm mi v sni lng cc quy nh i vi ngi nc ngoi tiVit Nam s to nn mt ln sng khch thu mi.

NhthtrngTP. HCh Minh, cc nh bn l vnh u tncngoi, c bit l nhng nh u ttrong khu vcASEAN, th hin s quan tm rt lntrong vic gia nhp th trng Vit Nam nhvo trinvngtch

cctHipnhxuyn Thi Bnh Dng(TPP) vcc hipnhgiao thngtdo khc.

Ngoi k hoch m rng mnh m ca cc nh bn lnc ngoi v ni a ti Vit Nam trong 2015, mttrong nhng xu hng ng ch nht l xu hngbnh dn ha. S xut hin ca kiu 'ch' mi, 'ca

hng gimgi', v siu th gi r uthhincho xuhng mua sm tkhch hng i hi cht lng caohn vi gi c phi chng hn.

Ngnh m thc ghi nhn s tng trng mnh mtrong nm 2015 v s tip tc chim lnh th trngtrong nm 2016. Gn 50% cc yu cu thu din tchbn l nCBRE uthuc ngnh ny v chyuntcc nvdchvnungtrung cphnldchvnungcao cp.

Cuc cnh tranh chim th phn ang rt khc lit.Ngi tiu dng hin nay ngy cng k tnh v thngthi hn, h rt coi trng tng th tri nghim muasm. Do , cc nh qun l trung tm mua sm cnphi thc s hiu khch hng ca h mun g thngqua vic tn dng cc d liu h c th thu thp tcc ng dng v cc phng tin marketing k thuts, ng thi cung cp cc dch v gii tr cht lnghn v hp tc cht ch hn vi cc nh bn l.

H N I

Hnh 9: Nguncung Trung tm thngmi, H Ni


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36

48

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Githutrung

bnh

(USD/thng/m2)

Tltrng(%)

T l trng Gi thu trung bnh

M T B N G B N L

Dinbinthtrngangtrn phchi

Do phn ln ngun cung mi tiv tr ngoi trung tmnn gi thu ca cc d n mi c cho l s thphn so vi mc trung bnh ca th trng hin ti.Ngoi ra, mt hng ti cc trung tm mua sm miang c gi cph hp hn, hng n tng lp

trung lu, do , gi cho thu c th khng cao nhnhng nm trc.

Vingroup s tip tc dn u th phn th trngvimt s d n spti, hu ht l cc d n ngoi khuvc trung tm. Cc d n c pht trin bi nh ut nc ngoi, bao gm Gamuda, Ciputra c th chcho thu mc gi trung bnh hoc thm ch thphn do h khng c c li th v v tr.

Hu ht cc d n trong khu vc trung tm thnghot ng tt hn so vi mc trung bnh th trng.Nhng dn tcng sut gn nh ti a c ths c gi thu tng 5-10% trong ba nm ti. Gi thutrung bnh ca th trng k vng s ci thin trong banm tivitc tng trng thp hn trc.

Cc nh u t bn l trong nc ang ngy cngnhn thc r hn v tm quan trng ca nhng khch

thu ch cht, do h bt u tm kimcc nh bnl nc ngoi lp y cc din tch bn l cntrng. Tuy nhin, din tch thu ln cng vi nng lcm phn gip nhng khch hng ny c c githu u i hn so vi cc khch thu khc.

Chnh sch chia s doanh thu c th s gim bt phn

no ri ro v vic qun l vn hnh tpha chdni vi khch thu. iu ny thu ht rt nhiu nhbn l, c bit l nhng ngi mun m thm cahng trong mt trung tm mua sm mi.

T l trng trung bnh trong nhngnmgnykhong12%. Do khu vcngoi trung tm s c nhiud n mi v vic lp y in tch thu s khng tc mt cch d dng, t l trng ca cc d n mic th tc ng tiu cc n ton b th trng. Tuynhin, cc d n hin ti c d bo s ci thincng sut, dn n t l trng ca th trng n nh mc trung bnh 8-9%.

Mtbngbn lH Nivn l th trng ca khchthu do ngun cung ang tng nhanh chng, tuy nhinvi nhu cu di do t th trng i chng, th trngcho phn khc c gi thu thp n tm trung vn sc trin vng tch cc

H N I ( T I P T H E O )

Hnh 10: Trinvnggi thu v tltrng- Trung tm thngmi, H Ni


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T H T R N G V N P H N G


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14

050

100150200250300350

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

NFA('000m2)

Existing Supply, NFA New Supply, NFAExisting Absorption, NFA Net Absorption, NFA

TH TRNG VN PHNG

Thtrngvnphng angchnmtln sngnguncung chtlngcao

Trong nm2015, thtrngcho nduy nhtmttanh HngA ivo hotng: Vietcombank Tower.Sau nmnmktkhi Vincom Center ivo hotngcung cp40.000 m2, thtrngmicho n

mtnguncung chtlngquy m lnnhth. Tnhnnm2018, thtrngsc thm bncao cvnphng: Saigon M&C, Ngi nh c Deutsches HausHCh Minh, Si Gn Centre (G 2) v The One HCh Minh. Ngi nh c Deutsches Haus HCh Minhsl dn th2 nhncgiithngLEED Gold.

Yu cuvchtlngsn vnphng sngy cngtng. Cc dn c chtlngthpsrtkh khntm khch thu mcd nguncuvnhinhu. Tnhhnh hot ng ca nhng ta nh mi hon thintrong nhng qu gn y m ra mt xu hng pht

trin mi ni m khch thu t ra a chung thit kbn p v hiu qu. Cc ta nh c cht lng, thitk hiu qu v v tr tt s nhanh chng c lpy.Theo , nhng ch u t ang c k hoch u tvo d n vn phng cho thu cn quan tm nhiuhn vo tnh hiu qu ca thit k.

Thtrngtiptcghi nhntlhpthtt

Theo sliulchs, dintch thcthu miticc tanh miivo hotngthngcao trong giai onu, ko tngdintch thcthu mitrn ton thtrngtithiimtngcao. Xu hngny vntipdintrong nm2015, dintch thcthu tng

mnhkhi thtrngcho nthm mtnguncungmi. Dintch sn cthu mitita nh mimVietcombank Tower chimmtttrngngktrongtngdintch thcthu minm2015. Thtrngtrong ba nmtidkinsvnvnhnh theo xuhngny. Dintch thcthu mitrong nm2016srtthpdo khng c nguncung mino ivohotng, ngthidintch sn cn trngtrn thtrngcngrtgiihn. Dintch thcthu mitrong2 nm2017 - 2018 stngtrlikhi mtlngngksn vnphng hon thnh v avo hotng.

Trong nm2015, bn cnhnnkinh tphchi(tllmpht thp, GDP ccithin, tiu dng cao),vicVitNam tham gia TPP v EU VitNam FTA thu ht mtlnglnuttrctipncngoi vongnh btngsn. Nhu cuthu vnphng stngmnhdo nhiudoanh nghipncngoi snvthnh lpvnphng tithnh phtrong nm2016.

T P. H C H M I N H

Hnh 11: Nguncung v tlhpthHngA

Nguncung hinhu

Dintch cthu hinhu

Nguncung mi

Dintch cthu mi


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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Tltrng

Githu(USD/m2/th

ng)

Rental Rate Vacancy Rate



Hnh 12: Gi thu v tltrngHngA

Gi thu Tltrng


Ghi nhnnguncuttnhnnkinh thiphc

Nm2015 l nmthtrngiuchnhcung cu. Thtrngvnphng HngA ghi nhndintch sn thcthu v mccithintltrngkh tch cc. Nhmkhch hng c nhu cuthu cao nhttrong nm2015thuclnhvccng ngh/int/ IT, snxut, ngn

hng/ ti chnh/ bohim/, tvnv logistic/vnti.Trong 2016-2018, ngnh cng ngh/int/ IT dkinsvntngtrngmnhnht. Ngoi ra, ngnhdchvhucncngsniln. Vicpht trinthngmitheo sau hipnhTPP, ngnh thngmiintpht trinmnhv nhu cuvkhu cngnghcao tngmnhdkinthc ypht trinhthngdchvhucnhon chnhtiVitNam.

Cc yu cuthu cghi nhntrong 2015 chyul dchchuynv thu minhnnkinh tcithin,VitNam mtlnnalil mtlachnhpdnchocc nh ut. Theo sliuyu cuthu m CBREnhnctrong 2015, cc yu cuthu cho mtsndi500 m2 rtphbin. Cc yu cuthu mtsnlnchyuntcc cng ty hpnhtvnphng.Do dkincc thngvst nhpvnphng stdinra trong thigian ti, cc yu cuthu sn vnphng vav nhsvnchimttrngln.

Khu trung tm vncathch v nhu cuivicc mtsn t1.000 - 2.000 vnhinhu. Dkincc giao dchthu ticc ta nh tnglai chaivo hotngsdinra rtsi nitrong thigian ti.

Gi thu vnphng dbo tngnhanh trong nm2016 do nguncung ngy cng hnchv t ngun

cung miivo hotng. ncui2018, thtrngdkinsc thm 119.080 m2 sn, vimtphnngkdintch cthu trc. C thni,nguncung vnphng sbthiuhttrong ngnhn.Chnh sc lithhntrong vicmphn, nhsttin hntnggi. Gi thu stiptctngnhngvitcdchmhngiai on2017 - 2018.

LutKinh doanh Btngsnsaicchnhthcp dngvo ngy 01/07 cho php cc cng ty cvnutncngoi cho thu liti snhangthu, ngthicho php mua liv shucc tanh xy dngsdng. yc thxem l cchtipcnngunvnthcp, cho php cc chutddng tipcnhnvicc ngunvnutkhc. iuny c thtoiukincho nhiumtbngvnphng ccho thu lu di hocchobn hn. Tuy nhin chta nh cncntrngtrongvictm kimkhch thu chinlctrnh tnhtrngcnhtranh trong chnh ta nh cah.

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TH TRNG VN PHNG

Hotngxy dngtngtrngmnhnhkinh tphchiv c nhiutimnng

Trong 2015, khng c ta nh vn phng hng A mino ivo hotng. Cc ta nh vn phng mi dkin s i vo hot ng trong na u 2016 cngghinhntin xy dng tch cc. Trong nm2016,

109.500m2 sn vnphng ntba dn hngA sivo hotng, tngngvi30% tngnguncung hinhu. Nguncung michyutptrung khu vcngoi trung tm vpha Ty v khu vcnga, Ba nh. Mcd chachnh thcmca, hotngcho thu ticc ta nh miny vnthu ht squan tm tch cc t pha khch thu c nhu cudintch ln. Ngun cung mi hng A cngsgpphiscnhcanh ntnguncung hng miB, vitngcung mihngB trong giai on 2016 - 2018 cao hn50% so viHngA.

Nm2015 ghi nhnnhu cu mnh m t cc doanhnghip vav nh hot ng trn mi lnh vc, cngsut cho thu v mc gi cho thu cngn nh.Chuynvnphng v m vn phng mi l hai hotng cho thu ph bin trn th trng. Mt s giaodchthu dintch ln(> 1.000m2) cngc ghinhn.

Vic chuynvn phng ch yuntcc doanhnghip nc ngoi mundchchuynnkhu vccngnh cng nghip lin quan. Nhu cu t cc doanhnghip trong nc cng rt mnh m, vimt s hpng thu din tch hn 1.000 m2, mtsntccdoanh nghip vin thng v hng tiu dng.

Lutkinh doanh Bt ng sn c hiulcvo ngy 01thng 7 nm 2015 ck vngthu ht cc nh ut mi cho th trng vn phng. Theo , cc doanhnghip c vn u t nc ngoi c php cho thuli ti sn m hangthu v c thmua limttanh hon thinsdngnib. Nh u tnc ngoi cng c th mua hoc thu mt phn dn v cho thu li.Hn th na, s tham gia ca VitNam vo Hip nh i tc Kinh t Chin lc xuynThi Bnh Dng (TPP) v Hip nh Thng mi Tdo (FTA; Vit Nam - EU, Vit Nam - Hn Quc) ck vng s mang li nhiu hn na khch thu cho thtrng vn phng cho thu. Kinh t phc hi i cngvi nhng ci thin trong mi trng kinh doanh khuyn khch cc doanh nghip nc ngoi thnh lpvn phng mi hoc m rng cc vnphng hin tica h, t to ra mt nn tng vng chc cng ccho th trng vn phng cho thu.

H N I

Hnh 13: Nguncung v tlhpth, HngA, H Ni

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Tltrng

NLA(.000m2)

New Supply, NFA Net Absorption, NFA Vacancy RateTltrngTlhpthNguncung mi


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17

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Tctnggi(%)

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Grade A Grade B Grade A - Rent growth Grade B - Rent Growth


Tlhp thdkintngmnh, tuy vnthphnlngcung vnphng mi

Vi trin vng kinh t tch cc, th trng vn phnghng A H Ni khp li nm 2015 vi hn 62.000m2 thu mi, chim 40% tngdintch thcthu tonth trng v gp 4 ln so vi2014. T l hp thHngA 2016-2017 d bo t khong 57.000 m2 minm, tng 30% so vi 2014 v s l mt con s tchcc nhvinm 2015, do cc cng ty trong ncang tip tc m rngv cc cng ty aqucgia mis thit lp vn phng ca h. T l hp thnh vyvn chmhnso vitc tngngun cung mi, dnn t l trng ca cc ta nh Hng A d bo s tng7 im so vi nm ngoi, t 24,7% vo 2016, trckhi gim dn xung 17,6% vo nm 2017.

Khch thu vnl itngchi phiTT vnphng HNido tc pht trin ca ngun cu khng theo kpngun cung trong cc nm qua, v xu hngny vn

s tip tc, vy nn gi thu c d bo s tip tcgim. Trong khi gi thu ca cc ta nh Hng A titrung tm c d bo s gim 1%/nmtrong ba nmtith gi thu ton TT Hng A c th sgim3%-5%.Phn ln ngun cung mi nmti khu vc ng a,Ba nh v pha Ty, nithng c gi thu thp hnnhiu so vi trung tm. Do vy, gi thu trung bnhton thtrngHng A c d bo s gim mc

cao hn so viti trung tm. Trong khi , gi thuca vn phng Hng B s gim vi tc chm hnso vi Hng A nh chtlngxy dngticc tanh vnphng ngy cng ccithin.

Khi th trng hi phc vi ngun cu kvngtng,cc dn nm vtr catitrung tm c th sti khi ng. Mc d thi gian hon thinca cc dn ny vn cha c thng bo chnh thc, nhngiu ny cngcho thy cc ch u t hin nayang rt lc quan v trin vng th trng. Trong khicc ta nh mixy dngkhong1 nmthnggimgi thu thu ht khch th cc ta nh lu nm vit l lpyn nh v cht lng ta nh c cithin, cbo stnggi thu trong nm 2016.

Cc ta nh ngy cng pngcnhiuyu cukhtkhe hncakhch thu

Nhiu ta nh HngA ang c dn v thiu c s vt

cht tiu chun nh sn din tch ln, hm xe vsn nng. p ng yu cu ca khch thu ncngoi, cc ta nh HngA cnnng cp cnhtranh hiu qu hn trong mt th trng m khchthu l itngchi phi. Trong s cc yu cu cakhch ncngoi, ta nh 'xanh' l mt khi nimmi, nhng s sm tr thnh yu t quan trng khinhiu tp on a quc gia dn c mtti Vit Nam.


Hnh 14: Gi thu v tl tng trng, HngA & B, H Ni

Gi hngA Gi hngB Tctnggi hngA Tctnggi hngB


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T H T R N G N H


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TH TRNG NH

Nm2015 nhdumttmcao micho thtrngnh

Cng vispht trincakinh t, nimtin cathtrngccithin. iuny cchngminhqua sdn cho bn micngnhlnggiao dchtngvt, gi bn cithintrong cnm2015. Cc chutttin v lin tccho bn dn mihay ti

khingnhngdn bngbnglu nmbngthitkmi. Trong nm2015, c xpx41.787 cnhthucmiphn khc thtrngccho bn tiTP. HCh Minh, cao gp2,2 lnso vinm2014.

Nm2015 cngnhdustrlicaphn khccao cp, asl cc dn nmdctuyntu ins1. C thni vicxy dngtuyntu ins1 ymnhhotngcho bn khu ng, bao gmQunBnh Thnhv Qun2, trong c nhngdn quym lnnhVinhomes Central Park (10.000 cnQunBnh Thnh) v Masteri Thoin(3.745 cnQun2). Tuy nhin, phn khc bnh dn vnchimttrnglnnht(35,8%) trong tngnguncung. Trongkhi nhngdn cao cp vtr cahngnkhch mua l nh utmua cho thu liv tsutsinh licao (khong6% - 8%), th phn khcbnh dn lil lachnsmtcho huhtkhchmua v gi cphichng.

Xt vnhu cu, thtrngpht trinnnhv c xuhngcithintrong nmqua. Sgiao dchmua bnthnh cng cghi nhn mccao vi36.160 cnh, gpinm2014. Trong phn khc hngsang vcao cpcho thyscithinngktrong lnggiao dch, tng135,6% so vinmtrc, khi so snhvitltng81,2% canhm phn khc thphn(trung cpv bnh dn). Mcd hai phn khc ny c

tctngtrngchmhn, nhnglichimastrong tnglnggiao dch(54%) v hngnkhchmua , tcngimua c nhu cutht.

Gi trung bnh trn thtrngscpv thcpcngcithinqua cc qu, v c xu hngtngmnhhnvo cuinm.

Ngoi ra, LutNh saiv LutKinh Doanh BtngSnc hiulctngy 1 thng 7 nm2015,trong nibtnhtl quy nhcho php ngincngoi mua btngsntiVitNam vinhiuquynlicmrng.

Tsau ngy 1 thng 7, thtrngghi nhnlngkhch ncngoi quan tm nhiunnhngdncao cpc chtlngttcpht trinbicc chutdanh ting cH Niv TP. HCh Minh.

T P. H C H M I N H

Hnh 15: Thtrngnh TP. HCh Minh, Doanh shngnmtheo phn khc

Ngun: BP. Nghin cuCBRE, Qu 4/2015.

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Hng sang Cao cp Trung cp Bnh dn Cnm


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New supply Sold units

T H T R N G N H

Nguncung v nhu cumnhmghi nhn nhngdn hng uthtrng

Sau thigian ngbngdi do vbong bng btngsn, tgianm2013, thtrngcnhTP. HCh Minh btuxuthinnhngtn hiulcquan vccung v cu, cbitl nhngdn thucphn

khc cao cpv hngsang. Hai phn khc ny cngchim30,6% trong tngnguncung cho bn.

Trong giai onkhnghong2011 2012, phn khchngsang v cao cpchutc ngnhiunhtdongn sch chung cn thpv bnchtuccahaiphn khc ny. Th trngbtuvcdytgianm2014 v cc chutlin tctchcskinbn hng v lkhicng. Kt, nguncung mitnggnba ln, tngcngc 16.674 cnhccho bn trong nm2015. Con sny cao gpbnlnso vinm2007, phnnh rngquy m thtrnghinnay lnhnnhiuso vithivng son 2006

2007. Cng ty Ph MHngv tponVingroup lhai chutlnnhttrn thtrngcnhhngsang v cao cptiTP. HCh Minh, lnltgiithiuthm dn khu Nam v khu ng, nic thtrngcho thu si ngnhtvitsutsinh licao.

Nm2014, doanh sbn t5.575 cnh(cao hnnhiuso vikhong1.000 cnnm2011 v 2012).

tiu thvngivngtrong nm2015 v ghi nhnklcmi(13.586 cnbn c), gpinm2014.

Nhn vtnglai, nhiudn nibthng uscmbn trong 2-3 nmti. BP. Nghin cuCBRE ctnh hn18.200 cnhhngsang v caocpsccho bn trong nm2016, v mtcon s

tngtnhnm2015 vo nmktip. Tuy nhin,lngcho bn sgimmnhnm2018 v thiuqut vtr ca, v cc chutuancrt nsng thtrngt2015 ngianm2017.

Th trnganghay chmtrn?

Xt vnguncu, tltiu thnm2016 dkinschmhnso vinm2015 bicc dn miucho gi cao hnhnv ngimua cnthigian thch ngvingnggi miny. nnm2017 tltiu thtiptcgim, cbitvo nacuinmkhi

thtrngc xu hnggimnhitsau hai nmtngtrngnng. nnm2018, con sny sgimmtnav nhngdn ccho bn thiimasubtr hon lu nmv nhngqunt smut. Mcd vy, tltiu thnm2018 cngstngngvinm2014 nhsb ptcc snphm phn khc thphn.


Hnh 16: Nguncung v nhu cunh cao cao cpTP.HCh Minh


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Mctnggi(%)

Gi(USD/m2)

Gi Mc tng gi

T H T R N G N H

Mcgi snnhtrong trung hn

Gi cho bn trn thtrngscpc xu hngtngnhanh tnm2014 nnay. Theo dliucaBP.Nghin cuCBRE, sau khi gim20,4% vo nm2010(so vinhimnm2008), gi bn dncithinqua cc qu. Gi scpcacc snphmhng u

angdao ngtrong khong2.033 4.197 USD/m2ty vo vtr.

nhgi trinvngtnglai, BP. Nghin cuCBREdbo gi c thtnhvo nm2016 (tng17,2%)v gimdntrong giai on2017 2018. Trcthctngimua ngy cng kn chnhntrong khinguncung dido hn, chutsphicntrngtrong victnggi mbomctiu doanh snhkhochra. V vy, gi chtngchyunhnhngdn vtr vng (nhngdn nmngay khutrung tm thnh phcho mcgi 7.500 10.000USD/m2) v nhngdn cao cpquy m lnnmtrong khu trung tm mrnghay tiQun2 trong nm2016 v Khu thmiPh MHngtiQun7 trongnm2017 (cho mcgi 2.500 2.900 USD/m2). Tnm2018, snphmcao cpsphn brirc tinhngqunt smut, dnngi scpgimnh.

Snhiukhch mua ncngoi tham gia thtrng?

Chnh sch ni lng iu kin mua nh cho nginc ngoi cng vi chng trnh y mnh bn hngt cc ch u t gt hi nhiu thnh cng sau hnsu thng thc thi. Nhiu ngi nc ngoi ang lmvic ti Vit Nam c quc tch Singapore, Hn Quc,

Nht Bn v M Lai rtquan tm, v mua u tcho thu. T sut sinh li t hot ng cho thu khhp dn khi so snh vi nhngncpht trinhn.Lng khch thu c sn, c bit cc v tr gntrng quc t, gip hmau chng lp y cn h.

Chuthng u trong nc vi qu t s -Vingroup - cng b nhn c 400 yu cu t muacn h t ngi nc ngoi trong giai on va qua,chyumua snphmhngsang (Landmark 81).Thng k nghin cu cho bit rng nhng d n caocp vi v tr c a, y tin ch cng nh cpht trin bi ch u t c uy tn thu ht nhiuquantm tkhch mua ncngoi. Thmch mtdnbn htqusn phm dnh cho ngi nc ngoichbnthng sau khi chnh thcmbn. Tuy nhin,BP. Nghin cuCBRE tin rngskhng c thay itngttrong lnggiao dchvingincngoi.


Hnh 17: Gi nh cao cpTP.HCh Minh


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TH TRNG NH

Nimtin tch ccvo thtrngstiptctrong nm2016

Nm2015 l mtnmtch cciviton thtrngnh . ctnh khong28.283 cnthuccc phnkhc cmbn ra thtrng, cao hn70% sovinm2014. Cc chutttin hnvo thtrngv nhanh chng hntrong vicgiithiuthm

cnhtcc dn mbn trcyhocdnmi, hocti khingcc dn trcyngngtrkhi thtrngixung.

Nm2015 nhdusquay trlicaphn khccao cpv hngsang, vicc dn cao cpquy mln khu vara trung tm v pha Ty thnh ph.Bn cnh, phn khc bnh dn vnchimtlln,khong30% lnghng bn ra. Trong khi cc dncao cp vtr ttchyuhngnitngkhch mua l nh utcho thu, th cc dn bnhdn l lachnttcho phnlnngimua , doph hpvingn sch canhm khch hng ny.

Vnhu cu, nimtin thtrngkh tch cctrong sutcnmv cithinqua tngqu. ctnh c khong21.102 cncgiao dchthuccc phn khctrong cnm. Tlgiao dchphn khc cao cpv

hngsang cngcithindnqua cc qu v tnh cnm, hai phn khc ny chimkhong32% tnglnggiao dch. Tlny trong cc nmtrclunthphn20%.

Mcd c thphnso vinm2014, nhngtlgiao dchcc phn khc trung cpv bnh dn vnchimphnlntrong tngscnbn cnm, do gi

trvaphiph hpviphnlnitngngimua .

Gi bnh qun scpv trung cpucithinquacc qu, vitcvaphi, tnh theo USD.

Thtrngcho nnhngkhch mua nh ncngoi utin

Quy nhmicthtrngtrng inhiul LutNh v LutKinh doanh Btngsnsaichiulctngy 1 thng 7 nm2015, cho php ngincngoi shunh tiVitNam vinhiuquynhn, khng chgiihnmua theo quy nhtrc. Thtrngghi nhnmtslnggiaodchban utngincngoi ivicc dncao cptiu biucachutc ting cH Niv TP. HCh Minh.

H N I

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Scnbn

Affordable Mid-end High-end Luxury Total

Hnh 18: Lnggiao dchnh hngnmtheo phn khc, H Ni

Bnh dn Trung cp Cao cp Hngsang Cnm


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T H T R N G N H

Cung v cuivibtngsncao cpumnh

Sau thigian khnghongcathtrngtnm2012, k t nacuinm2014, th trng nh HNi bt u c tn hiu tch cc c v cung v cu, cbit l ivibtngsn u t cp cao - phnkhc cao cp v hngsang. Hai phn khc tngcng

chim 18% ngun cung trn th trng hin nay.

Nhn chung, chung c cao cp btu khiscvocui nm 2014, khi cc chutnhanh chng nhgi c hi, v khntrngchunbqu t snsng cho vicmbn v trinkhai dn. Khong1.481 cnhcao cpv hngsang c mbntrong nm 2014. Trong nm 2015, theo xu hngphc hi mnh m catm l th trng, khong6.365cnhcao cp v hngsang crao bn, caohn bn ln so vi nm 2014. a s cc cnhny v tr tt, nmtrong vnh aitrung tm thnh ph, chmt10 pht li xe n trung tm, nivn c a

chung biasngi mua nh. D n Park Hill caVingroup vi hn 3.000 cnhctung ra l mttrong sdn tiu biunm 2015.

Cnhcao cp v tr tt gn trung tm vncngi mua a chung bilitccho thu cao. Thikkhng hong nm 2012 v nm 2013, phn khccao cp v hngsang chunhhngnhiunht do

gi trlnv l btngsnmang tnh chi. Nm2014, lnggiao dchtngvi tng s 2.319 cnc bn (so vidi500 cnmi nm vo nm2012 v 2013). bn mnh vn tiptcnm 2015vi 4.800 cnc bn thuccc phn khc ny.

L cc phn khc mang tnh c hi, chtngtrng

mnhkhi thtrngangln, btngsncao cpvhngsang chyuthu ht nh u t mua--cho-thu , v cc cnh v tr c a v c th cchothu vigi ttcho nhngnginc ngoianglm vic trong thnh ph.

Cc d n cao cpviquy m ln c cng bv d kin c mbn trong 2-3 nm ti.Bphnnghin cuCBRE c tnh khonghn 6.000 cn hcao cp s c tung ra th trngtrong nm2016,tng ng2015. Tcca ngun cung michophn khc cnhcao cp v hngsang c bsung vo th trng c th chm li trong nm 2017 v2018 khi tm l th trnggimnhit.

Xt v nhu cu, ht khch trong nm 2016 d kins mc tng t hoc cao hn nm 2015 mt cht,v c th chm li trong nm 2017 v 2018 khi mtchu k th trng mi s bt u.


Hnh 19: Cung v Cubtngsnnh cao cp, H Ni

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Scn

New supply Sold unitsNguncung mi Scnbn


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24

T H T R N G N H

Nguncung tnglai khng nhiuivinh caocp

Bt ng sn cao cp ph thuc nhiu vo v tr.Ngun cung nh cao cpgimch yu l do thiut v thtrngixung. Ngun cung bt ng sncao cp thng tng vt khi th trng khi sc. Khi

th trng chm li, cc nh utc xu hng mbn cc cn h c gi c phi chng hn.

D kin mc gi n nh trong vi nm ti

Gi c th trng s cp v th cp c xu hngtng t nm 2014. D liu nghin cu ca CBRE chothy sau khi gim khong 22% trong nm 2013 (so vimc cao nht trong nm 2010), gi tng dn quacc qu k t nm 2014 cho n by gi.

Mcgi chung ccao cp hin angtrong khong1.600 3500 USD/m, ty thuc vo a im, trongkhi gi bn li dao ng t1.500 3.850 USD/m.

Nhn vo tnglai n nm 2016 v xa hn na, Bphnnghin cu CBRE d on rng gi s n nhv tng trng mc khim tn. V l do ngi muahintic nhn thc r rng hn v ngun cungcng

di dohn, cc nh utcng ang thn trngtrong vic tng gi bn m bo tin bn hngtheo k hoch.

Bphnnghin cu CBRE d on rng tc tnggi c th mnh m nht trong nm 2016 v c khnng chm li trong nm 2017-2018.

Thtrngsthay ivistham gia cangincngoi

Khi th trng ang pht trin theo hng ci m hnv c quc t ha, trong lc gi c nhn chung vncn hp dn so vi cc th trng pht trin khc,d kin s c nhiu ngi ngi mua nc ngoithm d th trng Vit Nam hn khi ngy cng cnhiu lut l c ban hnh hngdncc itngtham gia.

Bphnnghin cu CBRE khng mong i mt sthay i t ngt v doanh s bn cho ngi ncngoi trong cc nm tip theo. Tuy nhin, cc nh utvn cn phi chun b cho cucchi mt tm caomi: Tnh chuyn nghip, s thng tho ngn ng vtnh thun tin trong thanh ton l mt trong cc vn quan trng ca mt th trng ang i mi.


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%

USD/m2

Price Price growth

Hnh 20: Gi btngsncao cp, H Ni

Gi Mctnggi


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T H T R N G K H U C N G N G H I P


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26

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Ngu

ncung(GFA,ha)

TP.HCM Bnh Dng ng Nai Long An

TH TRNG KHU CNGNGHIP

N G U N C U N G / N H U C U

Hnh 21: Nguncung miKhu cng nghip

TP. H CH MINHTP. HCh Minh tiptcthu ht ngunvnFDI, mtngunvnnnhcithincshtng. Trongnm2015 khng c khu cng nghipmino ivohotng. C hai nguyn nhn chnh l do quthnchcaTP. HCh Minh v chnh quynthnhphkhtkhe hntrong vicph duytdn. TP. H

Ch Minh angthu ht nhiuhncc cng ty trongngnh intv cng nghthng tin v tptrung phttrinnhngkhu cng nghcao. ngch l khunh my th3 caSamsung km theo cc nh cungcptikhu cng nghcao Si Gn. Khu nh mycdkinsivo hotngtnm2016. Lnitptrung cnghng khng v cngbinchnh,TP. HCh Minh chim2/3 kim ngchthngmicaVitNam. iuny dnnnhu cucao vnh kho,nh my v tcng nghiptnh utncngoi. Vicgia tngthngmiintv tiu dngnial yutchnh nhhngnnhu cu.

TNH BNH DNGChnh quynBnh Dngchngtm kimnh ut. Stngtrngnhanh trong giai on2007 - 2008tora nguncung dido, dintch ny vnangchpthbivicmrngutv utmi.V th, khng c nguncung mit2012 n2016.Trong nm2017 sc mtkhu cng nghipmisivo hotngtihuynThi Ha.

Tnh Bnh Dng t mc tiu thu ht nhiuhncc

ngnh cng ngh cao v bn vng. Tuy nhin, khihipnhTPP ck ktvi mt ngun cung phhp, gi thu cnh tranh, tnh ny vnstiptchpdn cc ngnh cng nghip truyn thng nh maymc v hng tiu dng nhanh.

TNH NG NAI

Cshtngccithinl yutchnh nhhngnnguncung catnh. Cao tcLong ThnhDuGiy v sn bay Long Thnh l nhngdnchchtthu ht nh utnvingNai. Khngc nguncung mitrong nm2015. Ba khu cngnghipangquy hochv mtkhu cng nghipangxy dngsivo hotngcng lc vicc dncshtng. Nhngdn lnl khu cng nghcao

Amata tihuynLong Thnh v dn NhnTrch4tihuynNhnTrch. Ckh v chbinthcphml nhngngnh cng nghipchnh titnhngNai.

TNH LONG AN

Gi nhn cng thp, khongcch gnsng v TP. HCh Minh l nhngimmnhchnh catnh. Tuynhin tnhkm hpdnivinh utv cshtngchachon thin. Khng c thm khu cngnghipmitrong nm2015. Mtln sng nguncungmitrong nm2016 - 2018 sthay ithtrngLong An. Dtmay l ngnh trngimcatnh.


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US$/m2/thng

TP.HCM Bnh Dngng Nai Long An

0

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2

3

4

5

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016F

2017F

2018F

US$/m2/thng

TP.HCM Bnh Dngng Nai Long An


TP. H CH MINHGi thu nh xngxy sntngtrong nm2015 domtbnghnchtrong khi nhu cutng. Nguncung cc vtr tthinangrthnch. Nhu culnchomtbngkho bi ntcc nh bn lv cc cng tyhng tiu dng nhanh.

Gi dugim, FDI tngmnh, stngtrngnnhtrong thngmiv htngpht trinl nhngyutthc yuttiTP. HCh Minh. Cc yutnystora ngunculncho cc nh xngxy snv tcng nghiptrong ba nmti. Ngoi ra, HipnhTPP v FTA sthu ht cc doanh nghipvavnhhotngtiVitNam. Gi thu cho cc nhxngxy sn VitNam ckvngstng5%trong nm2017 so vinm2015.

Vichon thnh sn bay Long Thnh snhhngtiu ccnthtrngtcng nghip TP. HChMinh nhngiuskhng xyra cho nnm

2020.

Gi thu tcng nghipcdonstng2%.Khu cng nghip vtr ttthmch c thsghinhnmctngcao hn. Ngcli, nhngkhu cngnghipchtlngthphnsphigimgi thu.

TNH BNH DNGGi thu Bnh Dngstngvitcchmhn.Gi thu ctnh tng2,6% trong nm2017. Nguncung mitrong nm2017 scung cpthm nhiuslachnhnv slm gimgi thu. Gi thu tcng nghipcdonsnnhtrong vng banmti.

TNH NG NAIGny, ngNai thu ht crtnhiunh utnhvo cc cng trnh htngtrngim: cao tcTP. HCh Minh-Long Thnh-DuGiy v sn bayQuctLong Thnh. Tuy nhin, gi thu snnhvchtngnh. C hai l do giithch cho iuny. Thnht, sn bay Long Thnh skhng thhon thnhtrong ba nmti. Thhai, vislngnguncungnhiu, chtsara gi thu cnhtranh cithintllpy. Gi thu canh xngxy sncdonstng1,2% trong nm2017. Gi thutcdonsnnh.

TNH LONG ANGi thu t Long An cao hncc tnhkhc do chiph nb cao. Cc chtskhng tnggi thutrong ba nmtiduy tr khnngcnhtranh vicc tnhkhc.

D O N G I T H U

Hnh 22: Gi thu nh my c sn Hnh 23: Gi thu tcng nghipDboDbo



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28

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%60%

70%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Tltrng(%)

TP.HCM Bnh Dng ng Nai Long An


TP. HCh MinhTltrngctnh sdi20% trong nm2016 khim khng c nguncung mino ctung ra thtrng. Mcd cc chtstch ccthchinccchindchcho thu trckhai trng, tltrngscao hntrong nm2017 v 2018 do c thm nguncung mi.

TNH BNH DNGTltrngcdonsdao ng mc30%trong ba nmti. yl tltrung bnh giacc khucng nghipanghotngttnhVSIP, MPhcv Ascendas vinhngkhu cn lic hiusutkm.

TNH NG NAIKhng c nguncung mitrong ba nmtisgip thtrnghpthphndintch trngcn li. Tltrngckvngsgim2 imphntrmtrong nm2016 v 3 imphntrmtrong nm2017.

TNH LONG AN

Long An c mtskthpgiamtslnghnchcc khu cng nghipanghotngttv huhtcc khu cng nghipanghotngkm hiuqu. iudnntllpythp thtrngLong An. Trong ba nmti, nlcgia tngtllpy cc khu cng nghiplu nmsbtiu gimbicc nguncung mi. Tltrngdkinsdao ng mckhong60%.

D O N T L T R N G

Hnh 24: Tltrngkhu cng nghip


Dbo


29/33

T H T R N G U T


30/33


30

Gi tiu dng t mc thp k lc, di1%, trong nm

2015 k t mc cao klcgn19% trong nm 2011, gip

toiukinthc y mi trng li sut thp hn. Sau

thi gian kh thn trng vi vic cho vay trong lnh vc bt

ng sn nhmti c cu danh mc u t v cc khon

vay khng hiu qu, cc ngn hng bt u cho vay li cc

dn bt ng sn trong nm 2014, trong bicnhnhu cu

tng trng tch cc.

Vit Nam duy tr trinvngtng trng kinh t tch cc

trong nm 2016, vi cc yu t kinh tnntngtrong nc

vng chc, totincho mi trng vnn nh. Tuy

nhin, vi nhng thay i ca th trng th gii v khu

vc, bao gm c vic tng li sut gn y ca Fed v s

suy gim ca cc th trng mi ni, li sut Vit Nam

c d kin s tng trong nm 2016. Mc d vy, Vit

Nam ccho l c trinvngtngivngvng bt

chpbi cnh kinh tkhu vc, c bit l khi Vit Nam

c k vng s tip nhn mt dng vn u t mi sau khi

trthnh thnh vin v itc cacc hip nh thng

mi t do khu vc v quc t, bao gm Hip nh TPP v

Cng ng Kinh tASEAN. Th trng bt ng sn Vit

Nam vn b ch phi ch yu bi cc nh u t trong nc,

vivichn mt nasgiao dch trong 10 nm qua l gia

cc nh uttrong nc. Sau nhng n lc gn y

m ca th trng cho cc nh u t nc ngoi , trong

c vic ni lng quy nh cho php ngi nc ngoi mua

nh, v niroom s hu ncngoi ca cc cng ty nim

yt, Vit Nam k vnghng li t s gia tng u t nc

ngoi trong vi nm ti, bao gm th trng bt ng sn.

Hnh thc huy ngvntruynthng, nhvnchshu,

gp vn t nhn v huy ng vnt ngn hng l hnh thc

ph bin nht. Pht hnh tri phiu doanh nghipmich

c p dng bi mt s chu t ln trong nc. Trong

khi qu tn thc bt ng sn (REIT) l mt knh huy ng

vn kh ph bin Singapore v Nht Bn , tiVit Nam

vn cn l mt khi nim mi. Khi qu REIT u tin ra mt,

n s l mt knh cung cp thm ngun vn cho cc d n

bt ng sn, cng nh mt nn tng mi thu ht vn hiu

qu hn, c bit t cc nh u t nc ngoi.

TH TRNG VN

T N G Q U A N T H T R N G V N

Hnh 26: Li sutVitNam

Hnh 25: Cc nh utmua BStiVitNam, 2006-2015

2016F0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Average CPI (y-o-y) Lending rate Deposit rate

F

0.8

3.6

VN 10y GovntBond Yield

Ngun: Real Capital Analytics, Q4 2015

56%

8%

8%

8%

5%5%

4%6% Domestic

Korea

Singapore

Malaysia

Hong Kong

America

Japan

Others

Lisu

t(%)

CPI TB nm Li vay LS tingi LS tri phiuCP VN

Vit Nam

Hn Quc

Singapore

Malaysia

Hng Kng

M

Nht

Khc


Dbo


31/33


31

22%

17%

14%8%

7%

7%

6%

3%3%

13%Japan

Singapore

Korea

United States

Hong Kong

Malaysia

Taiwan

Australia

China

Others

T H T R N G V N

Cc ch u t tip tc l nhm u t ln nhttrong th trng bt ng sn Vit Nam

Cc chu t tip tc l nhm u t ln nht voth trng bt ng sn Vit Nam. Cc chu ttrong nc hinvn chim lnh th trng, do c lith tip cn qu t v hiubitmi trngkinh

doanh trong nc. Cng vivicnntngkinh tccithinv trin vng tng i tch cc, ccnh u t nc ngoi ang t ra quan tm hnnth trng Vit Nam, thng gia nhp th trng thngqua hnh thc lin doanh vi doanh nghip trongnc. Vmtphn khc, btngsnnh vn ltrng tm ca th trng v d kin s duy tr vtrny trong thi gian ti, do phn khc ny phc v chonhu cu tiptcgia tngcbitl tcc gia nhtrung lu cc thnh ph ln.

Nhm utln th hai trn th trng btngsn

Vit Nam l cc tchcut, bao gm cc qu btng sn, ngn hng u t, cc cng ty bo him,qu hu tr.Trong thigian gny, cc tchcut thhins quan tm lnhntith trng btng sn Vit Nam. Phn khc bt ng sn thngmithng thngl knh utyu thch cacc tchcut, nn dkinsc thm nhiunh ut

t chctham gia thtrnghnkhi th trng btngsnthngmicng pht trin.

Qu u ttn thc btngsn(REIT) c k vngs trnn phbinhntrong thigian tikhi thtrngngy mtpht trin, pngnhu cuvngiatngcacc dn btngsn.

Cc nh utNhtBnstham gia thtrngnhiuhn

u t nc ngoi mcd ch chim mt phn nhtrong tngu t vo th trng bt ng sn hinnay, nhngc nghalntrong vicnh hng spht trin ca th trng, do cc u t nc ngoithng mang theo nnglcv kinh nghim qunl.Trong nhng nm qua, th trng bt ng sn VitNam thu ht c lngu t ln t Hn Quc,Singapore, Malaysia v Hng Kng. Trong hai nmqua, slngcc nh utNht Bnquan tm tithtrngVit Nam tngln ngk, v dkinsc stham gia utmnhmhncacc nhutny vo thtrngbtngsn. Bn cnh,cc nh u t Singapore v Hn Quc s tip tcquan tm utvo th trng Vit Nam, tn dngnhngkinh nghimtch lu trong qu kh.

H S N H U T

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2014 2015

Developer Institutional Investor Company Property Company

Hospitality Others

Hnh 27: Cc nhm nh u t quan tm n th trng btng sn Vit Nam

Hnh 28: Cc nh u t nc ngoi ang tm mua ti snBS ti Vit Nam

Ngun: BP. Nghin cu CBRE, Qy 4/2015.Dliutcc yu cuuttiCBRE Vit Nam

Ngun: BP. Nghin cu CBRE, Qy 4/2015.Dliutcc yu cuuttiCBRE Vit Nam

ChutCng ty

TponKhch sn

Nh uttchcCng ty BS

Khc

Nht

Singapore

Hn Quc

M

Hng Kng

Malaysia

i Loan

c

Trung Quc

Khc


32/33


32

T H T R N G V N

Theo dliu ca Real Capital Analytics, Vit Nam ghi nhntng cng gn 6 t USD chuynnhngbtngsntrong10 nm qua. Do tnh chtthtrngbtngsnVit Namhincn non tr v ang pht trin, mt tllncc giaodch chuynnhngl cho cc khu tdn, chim hnmt phn ba tng gi tr giao dch. Trong thigian ti, ccnh utctrong v ngoi ncstiptcquan tm n

cc khu tdn, nhtl khi slngcc btngsnthngmihon thinv anghotngcn hn ch.

Gn mt na cc giao dch v nhu cuutcho cc khutl cho mc ch s dng hn hp bao gm nh vnvnangl phn khc rt c quan tm do nhu cuangdido tquy m dn slnv t l th ha cao. T lsinh litcho thu nh tiVit Nam hinang mchp dn nht trong khu vc, ng thi gi bn li r hnmtcch tngi, nn utvo btngsnnh tiVit Nam hinangl knh uthp dn.

Btngsnthngmianghotngvn l loihnh

c nhiunh utquan tm, trong btngsnvn phng s tip tc l mc tiu chnh. TP. HCh Minh lthtrngccbitathch, do gi thu ti nhiutanh tiTp. HCM c d bo s tng. Mcd vyH Nicng nhncsquan tm nhtnhdo nhu cu vnphng cho thu d kins tng trng vivicthu htthm vnu t nc ngoi khi TPP c hiulc.

Th trng btngsnnghdngvn s si ng doVit Nam ang ni ln nh mt im nghdngmi, trongkhi bt ng sn cng nghip cng c k vng s tngtrng mnh m khi cc tp on a quc gia m rng ccc s sn xut Vit Nam tn dng li th ca hip

nh TPP v nhng u th v giao thng khc. Th trngbn l l mt sn chi cho cc nh utc chuyn mnv kinh nghim, v stp trung mt s t cc nh u t.Cc nvbn l quctgia nhpthtrngsc thmuali cc danh mchinhutndngngunlckhi migia nhpv m rng th trng.

Cc nh u t s tip tc cnh tranh mua nhng btngsn cc v tr ca, khincho tsutsinh litiptcduy tr mccnhgi l thp, ch xung quanh7%-8%, cho n khi c thm ngun cung mi ti nhng vtr vng. Ngun cung btngsnsnsng u t cnhn ch cng vi kh khntrong thng lng v gi c sl nhng ro cn chnh cho hotngu t.

P H N K H C C N T H E O D I

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2

20062007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

TriuUSD

Half Year Value One Year Value

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Dev Site Hotel Residential

TriuUSD

Hnh 29: Lnggiao dchbtngsnVitNam, 2006-2015

Hnh 30: Lnggiao dchbtngsnVitNam chia theongnh, 2006-2015

Ngun: Real Capital Analytics, BP. Nghin cu CBRE, Qu 4/2015Dliubao gmbtngsnthngmi, nh , hnhp, khu t

Ngun: Real Capital Analytics, BP. Nghin cu CBRE, Qu 4/2015

Tp. HCMTrung tm

Tp. HCMNgoi trungtm

H NiTrung tm

H NiNgoitrung tm

Gi tthamkho(USD /m2 t)

$5,000 -$22,000

$2,000 -$13,000

$2,000 -$25,000

$1,200 -$2,400

HsSD 6 - 16.5 5 - 12 4 - 11 6 - 12

Tsutsinhlivnphngtham kho 7%-7.5% 8.5%-9.5% 8%-9% 9%-11%

Tssinh liBS nh 7%-8% 7%-8% 6.5%-7.5% 5%-6%

Bng 1: Bnggi tv tssinh litham kho

Ngun: BP. Nghin cuCBRE, Qu 4/2015

Gi v tsutlinhuntrong bo co ny chmang tnh chttham kho. Ngickhng nn quytnhutm khng nghin cuklngbtngsnv thng qua nhgi clp. CBRE khng c trch nhimno cho cc quytnhbao gmvicssutdnnmtmttvicsdnghay davo cc thng tin ny.

Khu t Bn l Khch sn Vn phng Nh Cng nghip

Gi trnanm Gi trcnm


33/33

bitthm thng tin vbo co ny, vui lng lin h:

Desmond Sim

TrngBP Nghin cu,Khu vcngNam +65 63261638

[email protected]

An Nguyn, MRICSGim c+844 2220 [email protected]

B PHN NGHIN CU CBRE TON CU

Bo co ny c thc hin bi B phn Nghin cu CBRE Vit Nam, trc thuc B phn Nghin cu ca CBRE Ton cu mt i ngchuyn vin nghin cu u t cng phi hp cungcp nhng bo co nghin cu th trng bt ng sn v d bo kinh t cho cc nh u t bt ng sn v khch thu trn ton thgii.

Tt c t liu trnh by trong bo co ny, tr khi c nhng ghi ch c th, thuc tc quyn v c quyn s dng ca CBRE. T hng tin s dng trong bo co, bao gm nhng d on, cthu thp t cc ngun thng tin m chng ti cho l ng tin cy tnh n thi im pht hnh. Chng ti khng nghi ngv tnh chnh xc ca cc thng t in nn s khng kim chng ngun tinv khng bo m, oan chc hay i din cho cc thng tin ny. c gi c trch nhim t nh gi s tng quan, chnh xc, tnh ton vn v cp nht ca nhng thng tin trong nphm ny. Bo co ny ch nhm mc ch thng tin, dnh ring cho cc khch hng v i ng chuyn gi a ca CBRE, v khng c s dng hay xem nh mt li cho mi hay ng chomi mua hay bn hay ng k chng khon hoc cc cng c ti chnh khc. Tt c t liu ny u c bo lu bn quyn v ton b ti liu ha y ni dung trong hay bt k bn saono ca n khng c thay i di bt k hnh thc no, chuyn tip, sao lu hay pht tn n bt k bn no khc m khng c s cho php trc bng vn bn ca CBRE. Nghim cmmi hnh vi pht hnh n phm khng ghi r bn quyn hay chuyn tip bo co nghin cu ca CBRE. CBRE s khng chu trch nhim cho bt k tn tht, h tn, chi ph pht sinh hay phtn gy ra bi bt k i tng no s dng hoc da vo thng tin trong nphmny..

Theo di trctuyn

bit thm thng tin v cc hot ng v bo co nghin cu ton cu, vui lng lin h:

Nick Axford, Ph.D.TrngBP Nghin cuTon cu+44 20 7182 [email protected]

Henry Chin, Ph.D

TrngBP Nghin cu,Khu vcChu - TBD+852 2820 [email protected]

I i

Dung Dng, MRICSTrngBP Nghin cuv TvnVitNam+848 3824 6125

[email protected]

Richard Barkham, Ph.D., MRICS

Chuyn gia Kinh tTrngTon cu+44 20 7182 [email protected]

Neil Blake, Ph.D.

TrngBP Nghin cu,Khu vcChu u, Trung ngv Chu Phi+44 20 7182 [email protected] di trctuynNeil tiTwitter:@neilblake123

Spencer Levy

TrngBP Nghin cu,Khu vcChu M+1 410 951 [email protected]

BP. NGHIN CU TH TRNG
http://weibo.com/cbrechinahttp://www.youtube.com/user/CBREgrouphttp://www.pinterest.com/cbregroup/pins/http://www.linkedin.com/company/cbre-asia-pacifichttps://twitter.com/cbreAPresearchhttp://instagram.com/cbrehttps://plus.google.com/+cbre/postshttps://www.facebook.com/cbre

vietnam major report - vietnam market outlook february 2016 vn

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