2014

1.1

1.1.1

1.2.5

2.10

2.1.11

2.2.13

2.3.14

3.17

3.1.17

3.2.22

4.24

4.1.24

4.2.27

4.2.1. 28

4.2.2.31

4.2.3.32

4.3.34

4.3.134

4.3.2.35

5.38

38

6.41

ii

i

1.

CEPA, Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement200377

1.1.

2003SARS2000200120030.56%1.66%3.06%20015.1% 20037.9%

11 1997 2012 (2011 )

:

12 1997 2012

:

1849

11

2010 ()

2003728

:

11.0

2003820

:

15.0

200391

:

26.7

200411

:

24.3

200451

: (21)

34.7

200471

: ()

:

:

46.5

200531

:

25.5

2005111

:

:

:

30.5

200651

:

:

:

:

:

:

29.0

200771

:

:

:

:

:

38.1

: 2010

13

:

20094 ()201298342.5%[footnoteRef:1]200912201012 [1: ,20141]

1.2.

2003 20072009199720135,430201211.7%103.5

14 1997 2013

:

20002003

2013767.4%2000201329%75%

15 2000/

16 2013/

:(20012014)

2013, 5,43047.1%2,56620128%3.48,12320123.9%

12 2013

2013

2012

54,298,000

+11.7%

-

25,661,000

+8.0%

-

28,637,000

+15.3%

3.4

-0.1

8,123

+3.9%

27.5

+18.7%

:

201348.8%16.34.7%1,262565.4%34.6%

17 2013 16

:

* (16.3%), (4.7%), (4.1%), (1.8%), (1.3%), (1.2%) (1.3%)

2.

2.1.

/

1999(World Tourism OrganizationWTO) (Tourism Satellite Account, TSA)[footnoteRef:2]TSAWTO[footnoteRef:3]TSATSA [2: Designing the Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) Methodological Framework, World Tourism Organization] [3: 2011]

21

:

2.2.

[footnoteRef:4] [4: 2011]

22 2009 2013

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

51,000 (3.22%)

74,600 (4.29%)

86,200 (4.53%)

94,600 (4.70%)

105,900 (5.05%)

40,300 (2.55%)

59,200 (3.41%)

72,100 (3.79%)

79,100 (3.93%)

89,000 (4.24%)

13,300

16,900

22,700

26,400

32,000

*

9,800

16,100

23,200

25,000

25,600

4,500

6,300

7,900

9,100

10,000

8,000

13,800

10,500

10,000

11,700

4,700

6,100

7,700

8,600

9,700

:

*

:

2.5%4.2%

(2014)[footnoteRef:5]20122721.4%5192.6% [5: Economic Benefits of the Independent Visitor Scheme for Hong Kong: How Large are They?? (2014), Yun-Wing Sung.]

2.3.

201347%112,60021%48,80017%39,800

21 2013

:

2013269,70088.2%237,80020002.73%20136.38%200087,700 2011237,800

22 2000 2013

:

200320057.8%[footnoteRef:6]201020095[footnoteRef:7](2014)20128.7 [6: , 20079, ] [7: , ]

3.

3.1.

4-1

31

/3-1

31

SMCSMBPMCSMCSMB

Gooroochurn and Sinclair (2003, 2005) Gago and Labandeira (2006) 3-2

32

S1 Ct (C + t)

3.2.

(Composite CPI)2009-2010

33 1999 2012 ()

:

200320102011380%[footnoteRef:8]2011 $730,0002012$2,300,000210%[footnoteRef:9] [8: (2011)http://www.joneslanglasalle.com.hk/HongKong/ZH-HK/Pages/NewsDetail.aspx?ItemID=23715] [9: 2012/11/151]

3-32004

4.

4.1.

:

41

AD = C + I + G + (X M)

4-1

41

200980%92.2%

41 2009

2009

8.3%

0.2%

7.9%

2.7%

77.8%

92.2%

2.8%

2.9%

3.3%

2.1%

: ( )

2013363[footnoteRef:10] [10: Travel & Tourism, Economic Impact 2013, Hong Kong, World Travel and Tourism Council ()]

20041802013280 () 201218452[footnoteRef:11] [11: Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2013 Hong Kong, World Travel and Tourism Council ()]

201247.5%

4.2.

2013122013

4.2.1.

2005

201285%91%95%89%85%

42 2012

()

85%

2,457

91%

1,228

95%

781

89%

1,489

85%

510

: 2013

4-220002012200385%200978%20082009 20094

42 2000 2012

:

2003120%138% 134%

43 20002012

:

2007-082008-092009

4.2.2.

201273%()55%

201340%20121,200 3

2012[footnoteRef:12]201323% [12: http://www.mtr-shatincentrallink.hk/en/project-details/benefit.html , retrieved on 20 Jan 2014.]

4.2.3.

[footnoteRef:13] (20133) [13: 2013/12/15 2014/2/24 +1.6]

43 20139

9,186

3.4%

14,362

4.9%

10,135

1.8%

5,840

2.7%

8,778

2.5%

: 20139

[footnoteRef:14] [14: 20139]

4.3.

/

4.3.1 .

201212%2013

4920052006127,300 2005 137,400 2006144,70020054.1%20064.2%

20131648.8%201330.8%

4.3.2.

44 -

2017

SRASAD2SRASAD3

45

5.

1

2013

2

[footnoteRef:15] [15: 2014 http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201401/08/P201401080613.htm]

1

2-12-2200120020.56%1.66%5.10%7.31%20037.92%

51 2000

SRASAD1AD2e1e2

20132013

52 2013

2

6.

Biagi, B., Brandono, M. G., & Detotto, C. (2012). The effect of tourism on crime in Italy: A dynamic panel approach. Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 6(2012-25), 1-24.

Campaniello, N. (2013). Mega Events in Sports and Crime Evidence From the 1990 Football World Cup.Journal of sports economics,14(2), 148-170.

Cheong, W.M. (2009). Employment characteristics and trends of tourism-related industries. Macao: Monetary Authority of Macao.

Economic Analysis and Business Facilitation Unit of Financial Secretarys Office. (2010). 2010 Update of CEPAs Impact on the Hong Kong Economy (Individual Visit Scheme). Hong Kong: Author.

Erbes, R. (1973).International tourism and the economy of developing countries. OECD Publishing.

Eurostat. (2008). Statistics in Focus, Issue No. 90/2008. Luxembourg: European Commision.

Gago, A., Labandeira, X., Picos, F., & Rodrguez, M. (2006). Taxing tourism in Spain: results and recommendations.Tourism and sustainable economic developmentmacro and micro economic issues. Nota di Lavoro,40.

Gooroochurn, N. and Sinclair M.T. (2003). The welfare effects of tourism taxation, Discussion Papers No. 2003/2, Christel Dehaan Tourism and Travel Research Institute, Nottingham University Business School.

Gooroochurn, N., & Thea Sinclair, M. (2005). Economics of tourism taxation: Evidence from Mauritius.Annals of Tourism Research,32(2), 478-498.

. -.

. .

. (2013). .

. 2013.

. 2007 9 .

. 2014.

. 2005.

. 2013. . . http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201302/20/P201302200216.htm 2013213

. 2013. . http://www.mtr-shatincentrallink.hk/en/project-details/benefit.html 2013

. 2010.

Sung, Yun-Wing. (2014). Economic Benefits of the Independent Visitor Scheme for Hong Kong: How Large are They? (?), Occasional Paper No. 32, Shanghai-Hong Kong Development Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong

. (2008). Tourism satellite account: recommended methodological framework. http://www.oecd.org/cfe/tourism/tourismsatelliteaccountrecommendedmethodologicalframework.htm

Tribe, J. (2011).The economics of recreation, leisure and tourism. Taylor & Francis.

. (2013). Travel & tourism economic impact 2013 Hong Kong. http://www.wttc.org/site_media/uploads/downloads/hong_kong2013_1.pdf

. (n.d.) Basic concepts of the tourism satellite account (TSA). http://statistics.unwto.org/sites/all/files/docpdf/concepts.pdf

. (n.d.) Designing the tourism satellite account (TSA) methodological framework.

30

31