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14/16


Libya - Not All Revolutions are Equal

While thousands are dying in Libya deying

Gadda who has announced a ull-fedged

war against his people using tanks, ghter

jets, world and regional powers seem to only

care or their own agendas, regardless o

the moral considerations about the Libyan

people and their rebellion.

Syrian blogger and activist Yousse Al Azmeh

thinks there is such a crystal clear dichoto-

my: Syria and Algeria who attack the rebel-

The Libyan revolution is now a civil war

and it does not appear to be ending any

time soon. More importantly, this civil war

is now drawing in the key players in the re-

gion as they scramble to strengthen their

positions. By this I mean Iran, through

Syria, on the one hand, and the West on

the other. They key point o contention is

over the implementation o a no-y zoneover Libya, aimed at restricting Gaddafs

airorce rom inicting hurtul blows on

the rebels. Apart rom bringing up pain-

ul memories o the no-y zone orced

onto Iraq almost two decades ago, there

is another very important issue that is be-

ing ought over at this very moment. That

issue is whether NATO will have another

toehold in the region or not.

Unlike with the Tunisian and Egyptian

revolutions, the Libyan revolution is now

being ardently championed throughout

Western capitals. France has already rec-

ognised the Benghazi based ruling council

as the legitimate ruler o Libya, and it is

likely that other Western states will not be

ar behind. The United Kingdom has been

the key proponent o a no-y zone but this

has been severely contested by both China

and Russia. al Jazeera Arabic also report

that Syria is the only Arab country which

opposes this no-y zone.

The reason or this is very clear, and it

was made very eloquently by someone I

consider my political mentor. Syria is sup-

porting Gaddaf in his attempt to maintain

power, and may or may not be assistinghim directly with pilots and planes. It is

absolutely certain by now that Algeria is

also providing pilots and planes or bomb-

ing rebel positions in Libya and they have

been doing so or some weeks, in addition

the Polisario fghters rom the Western Sa-

hara have also been given passage through

Algeria to fght in Libya. From Syria (and

Algerias) point o view, the revolutionary

wave sweeping the region must be con-

tained. It is absolutely vital or Iran that

Syria not be swept or aected by this tide

o unrest. Syria is the lieline or Hezbul-

lah and a vital support or Hamas in Gaza,both politically and morally. In turn, Syria

is quite prepared to burn down the house

next door to prevent a fre rom spreading

to her own roo, as is Algeria.

This sentiment is shared by the Gul

states and other Arab countries, however,

whilst Saudi Arabia and what remains o

Americas allies in the region support the

crushing o the rebellion with the assis-

tance o the West, Iran and Syria wouldpreer to maintain Gaddaf, as a matter

o realpolitik, than allow the West a stron-

ger position in the region. The opportunis-

tic Amr Moussa is, in the meantime, ar-

dently supporting a no-y zone at any cost,

hoping to ride the wave o revolutionary

sentiment that sweeped aside Mubarak.

Finally, the timing or an Iranian ship to

arrive in the Mediterranean so soon ater

the all o Mubarak was clearly an attempt

at political one-upmanship.

Ultimately any moral considerations

about the Libyan people and their rebellion

is not what anybody is concerned about. At

stake is the political uture or the region,

meaning not all revolutions are equal and

not all dictators deserve to be toppled. At

least not yet...

**UPDATE** Turkey has announced on

Monday that it is opposed to a no-y zone

in Libya, especially one that is imposed by

the West.

lion earing the revolutionary wave might

sweep them too, and the west and their allies

on the other hand who champion the rebel-

lion aiming at assume power over the region.

Maysaloonhttp://tinyurl.com/nbqovc

http://tinyurl.com/65ojos2



15/16

2011 25 16 www.wasla.anhri.net 15Is Saudi Arabia ready or a revolution?

As revolution sweeps the Arab countries,

Saudis began to call or their own acebook-

powered revolution, with a list o demands

including a constitutional monarchy and

a call or public reedoms and respect or

human rights. Disappointgly, though, a

planned Day o Rage on March, 13, was

put down thanks to a huge propaganda cam-

paign by Saudi authorities that the demon-

strations were an Iranian conspiracy (any

resemblance?) and that Islamic extremists

were going to manipulate, and also because

o the heavy security presence in the streets.

Ater the unprecedented ailure o the day

o rage in Saudi Arabia, there started a huge

debate among activists. While some see it

very disappointing, others think the revolu-

tion hasnt ailed, and that the events have

The Arabian Peninsula has recently been

subject to, what has widely been called, the

Arab worlds home brew wave o revolu-

tion. The most iconic o these has been the

revolution in Egypt that saw millions take

to the street orcing the incumbent presi-

dent to ee in the wake o peaceul protests

that barely lasted a ortnight. In context, thebloodiest o these has been the ongoing wave

o protests in Libya that have seen hundreds

already all to the violence inicted by the

state military. The most signifcant o these,

however, has yet to take place.

Saudi Arabia, the Arab worlds political and

economic heavy weight, has so ar remained

sheltered rom the tide that is counting down

Arab monarchies and dictatorial rules, one

ater the other. Analysts, however, have been

quick in orming the view that the oil export-

er, too, is ripe or change. They cite socioeco-

nomic indicators, demographic breakdowns

and unemployment numbers to support their

case. And whilst the conditions in Saudi Ara-

bia are, no doubt, not very dierent romthose prevailing in its neighboring Arab coun-

tries, whether or not the Arab youth which

comprises almost two thirds o the countrys

native demographic can be galvanized or

such a cause is a question that ew have been

able to answer.

One o the more popular acts that are being

thrown around, with rough approximations, is

the demographic break down o the native

population. Almost 70 % o the native popula-

tion is under 30 years o age and approximate-

ly 40 % o this population is unemployed. This,

o course, is notwithstanding the 22% o the

population that lives below the poverty line

in what is one o the largest Arab economies.

Interestingly, while all o these numbers are

traded around in most academic discussions

about any impending revolution in Saudi Ara-

bia, one very important acet is oten ignored:

the willingness o the Arab youth to take the

initiative. The attempts at an organized pro-

test against the government so ar one in

mid February and another on 11th March

ailed miserably when, despite several hun-

dred confrmed attendees, protesters ailed

to even make it to triple digits amidst heavy

presence o security contingents.

Fortunately, this mindset seems to have

changed already, within the span o one short

ortnight ater the alleged murder o one o

the chie HYPERLINK http://www.monster-

sandcritics.com/news/middleeast/news/ar-

ticle_1623088.php organizers (2)o one such

protest rally by state security orces. This is

being viewed largely as the wake up call and

the impetus that the Saudi revolution move-

ment needed. The act that a human lie was

the much-needed shot in the arm should be a

testament to just how severely desensitized

the Saudi youth has become to its own pre-

dicament. This is a country where the eco-

nomic disparity between a large royal amily

comprising o a ew hundred members and

the rest o the 26 million population is the di-

erence between a several hundred billion dol-lar economy and a $24,000 per c apita income,

this is a statement indeed.

At this point, many people are criticizing

the Saudi Kings attempt to bribe his subjects

into submission with the recent announce-

ment o $37 billion in reorms and social

uplit as too little too late. The act, however,

is that this years reorms have only come to

light because o the ast spreading tide o

uprisings across the Arabian peninsula. King

Abd Allah bin Abdal Aziz has been oering

similar, albeit smaller, reorm packages as

token payments to his people since as early

as 2005-06. I the correlation between aide

packages, civil unrest and the inside reports

o the socioeconomic conditions in Saudi Ara-bia are to be trusted, then the government has

been paciying its people with token money

or one too many years. Now might fnally be

a good time to set its house in order lest the

people fnally wake up or once.

Right now, all signs are pointing towards

just that. With growing activism and increas-

ing state censuring (many times by virtue o

orce) o all such activities the Saudi youth

are fnding themselves running out o options

despite wanting the incumbent government

to persist. Unortunately, in case o a revolu-

tion, the Saudi youth might still fnd them-

selves stranded with the same problems, only

this time, there would be no one else let to

blame or to placate their problems. The power

vacuum let, in the wake o a potential ouster

o the monarchy, will leave a gaping hole in

the abric o the Arab political set up that will

leave political actors scrambling or a piece o

the pie.

This is a situation that the Saudis are nei-

ther used to nor equipped to handle. They have

been a people used to the luxuries that are al-

lowed to them by their rulers and any signs

o discontent over their lot in lie has been

trampled with abandon by the ruling elite.

Seeing a real opportunity to make amends to

their predicament might see them rushing

or a change, but the immediate uture ater

that is a looming uncertainty. In such a situ-

ation, public health reorms, education and

employment opportunities are not something

that will be easy to come by or to set up. Some-

how, this is something that the current crop

o protesters have realized and they are, thus,

demanding smaller changes that do not result

http://tinyurl.com/5wkpwk6

An article titled Report: Saudi Face-

book activist planning protest shot

dead reerring to the alleged murder

o Saudi blogger Faisal Ahmed Abdul-

Ahadwas, 27, who was calling or a

Day o Rage on March 11, publishedon Monsters& Critics website (March

2, 2011)

http://tinyurl.com/4uuom8u

shown how repressive government is, uel-

ing anger and dissent and mobilizing popu-

lation against the Kingdom.

Rabab Khan, writer, poet and blogger thinks

Saudis will never be the same stereo-typed

lthy rich passive people, however asking

the question: Will the Saudi youth be able

to awaken rom its slumber, and what will

be the price? And more importantly, are the

Saudi people ready to take on the responsi-

bility and the challenge that a democracy

will throw their way and is the west ready

or it?

in the immediate ouster o the ruling amily

but instead result in constitutionalization o

the political set up and a more transparent

governing body. This does not seem to sit well

with the royal house, which is instead willing

only to oer extravagant uplit reorms and

an iron fst on the dissenting with no promise

o transparency or a constitution.

Such an oer, which does not really imply

any real participation on part o the public in

the governing body, is not what the revolu-

tionaries want. And i plans proceed in line

with the path that they are being driven to

take, the resulting power vacuum will result

in even greater unrest and uncertainty. Insta-

bility and an ouster in the most inuential o

the Arab countries will encourage the tide to

turn over and spread across those Arab na-

tions as well which have so ar largely been

bystanders to the show, regardless o what be-

comes o Saudi Arabias internal crises. Such

a sudden change will not bode well or the

Western powers who have vested interests

in the region. These are major oil consumers

and have invested extensively in the power

corridors o these nations. That a revolution

in Saudi Arabia could spark a revolution in the

entirety o the Arab world makes this move-

ment even more ocal to the Arab cause o

nationalism.

Moreover, the act that any disruption in

the daily proceedings in Saudi Arabia could

disrupt the entire oil supply chain amongst

the entirety o the OPEC drives this point

home even more. This is both worrisome and

problematic or the West that depends exclu-

sively on this region to uel both their econo-

mies and their wars, with the ortunes o the

US especially tied to those o this region. It

is a given that US will have to deal cautiously

with this situation and consider careully

which side it opts or and proceed even more

cautiously with its dealings with whosoever

comes into power next, provided there is a

change o hands at the helm. Since it is now

a tradition amongst the larger Muslim com-

munity, barring the ruling elite, to blame most

and many o their misortunes on the west

the US specifcally, how the US proceeds rom

here will be the highlight to watch out or. It

will, without doubt have to deal with an unsat-

isfed Muslim leadership on its hands one

that might be difcult to beriend. In either

case, there will be no easy decision or the

Obama administration to make since a large

part o its economy is dependent on the Arab,

and more specifcally the Saudi, oil exports.

The conditions in Saudi Arabia may be ripe

or the revolution; the nepotism amongst its

ruling elite pushing or a change and the op-

pression amongst its populace ueling the fre.

However, the hanging question mark remains

will the Saudi youth be able to awaken rom

its slumber on schedule come March 18th, and

what will be the price? More importantly, are

the Saudi people ready to take on the respon-

sibility and the challenge that a democracy

will throw their way and is the west ready or

it?

Rabab Khanhttp://tinyurl.com/yzmr8xo



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