weekly neutral 운송(해운/항공) · 2014-04-12 · p3a_03 japan-sk/pacific/round voyage panamax...

유틸리티 / 자원개발 / 운송 담당 주익찬

Tel. 368-6099

[email protected]

Junior Analyst 강정현

Tel. 368-6575

jhkang @eugenefn.com

BDI 계산 방식 변경으로 해운 운임 상품 거래

시장 활성화 예상

Investment Point

09년 7월 1일부터 적용되는 새로운 계산 방식의 BDI는 일일 용선료만을 반영해,

FFA 등 운임 파생상품과의 결합이 쉬워져, 해운 운임 상품 거래량 증가 예상

BDI 계산 방식 변경: 일일 용선료+기타 운송 비용(기존) 일일 용선료(신규)

09년 7월 1일부터 BDI 계산 방식이 기존의 일일 용선료+기타 운송 비용에서, $/ton

으로 표현되던 기타 운송 비용이 제외되고, 일일 용선료만이 반영되어, BDI 관련 상품

거래량이 증가할 전망. FFA(Forward Freight Agreement)등 운임 파생상품들은 용선

료만을 반영하고 있어, 기존 BDI와의 결합이 다소 어려웠기 때문. 신규와 기존 BDI의

상관 계수는 0.99978. 계산 방식 변경으로 인한 혼란은 작을 전망

C2 (Tubarao/Rotterdam), C3 (Tubarao/Qingdao), C4 (Richard's Bay/Rotterdam),

C5 (W. Australia/Qingdao), C7 (Bolivar/Rotterdam), C12 (Gladstone/Rotterdam)

는 BCI (Baltic Exchange Capesize Index)에는 포함되나, 향후 BDI에는 제외

선종 dwt weight 포함 항로

C8_03 Gibraltar/Hamburg trans Atlantic round voyage

C9_03 Continent/Mediterranean trip Far East

C10_03 172000mt Pacific round voyage Capesize 172,000 25%

C11_03 172000mt China/Japan trip Mediterranean/Cont

P1A_03 Transatlantic RV

P2A_03 SKAW-GIB/Far East

P3A_03 Japan-SK/Pacific/round voyage Panamax 74,000 25%

P4_03 Far East/NOPAC-AUST/SK-PASS

S1A Antwerp - Skaw Trip Far East

S1B Canakkale Trip Far East

S2 Japan - SK / NOPAC or Australia round voyage

S3 Japan - SK Trip Gib - Skaw range

S4A US Gulf - Skaw-Passero

Supramax 52,454 25%

S4B Skaw-Passero - US Gulf

HS1 Skaw - Passero trip Recalada - Rio de Janeiro

HS2 Skaw - Passero trip Boston ?Galveston

HS3 Recalada ?Rio de Janeiro trip Skaw ?Passero.

HS4 US Gulf trip via US Gulf or NCSA to Skaw ?Passero

HS5 SE Asia trip via Australia to Singapore ?Japan

Handysize 28,000 25%

HS6 S Korea ?Japan via NOPAC to Singapore-Japan

자료 : Baltic Exchange, 유진투자증권

자료공표일 6 July 2009

Neutral Weekly 운송(해운/항공)

Contents 1. 해운 운임 동향 : 벌크

2. 해운 운임 동향 : 컨테이너

3. 유가 동향

4. 벌크 물동량 : AlSlive

5. 벌크 물동량 : 품목별

6. 벌크 수요 산업 생산 동향 : 철강

7. 벌크 가격 : 철강

8. 컨테이너 물동량 : AlSlive

9. 컨테이너 물동량 : 항구별

10. 세계 해운사 Fleet 추이

11. 세계 벌크 항구 체선 현황

12. 해운 관련 macro 지표: 국가별 산업생산

13. 해운 관련 macro 지표: 국가별 경기 선행 지수

14. 항공 : 인천공항 수송량 지표

15. 항공 : 해외 항공사 수송량

16. 주가추이 : 해운

17. 주가추이 : 항공

18. 상대 ROE-상대 PBR 비교

19. 세계 해운사(벌크)

20. 세계 해운사(컨테이너)

21. 세계 항공사(아시아)

22. 세계 항공사(미국, 유럽)

23. 세계 해운, 항공사 주가 및 Valuation

3 5 7 8 9 18 23 27 28 31 32 33 35 37 39 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

www.Eugenefn.com _3

Analyst 주익찬 / Junior Analyst 강정현 | 운송 (해운/항공)

I. 해운 운임 동향 : 벌크

도표 1

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

00.1 01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(200)

(100)

0

100

200

300BDI (좌축) 전년대비 상승률 (우축)

(pt) (%)

자료: Bloomberg, 유진투자증권

도표 2

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7

BDI (BALTIC DRY INDEX) BCI (BALTIC CAPESIZE INDEX)

BPI (BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX)

(pt)


도표 3

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

08.7 08.8 08.9 08.10 08.11 08.12 09.1 09.2 09.3 09.4 09.5 09.6 09.7 09.8

Imarex BDI Futures - Front Year

Imarex BDI Futures - Current Quarter

Imarex BDI Futures - Current Month

Baltic Dry Index

(pt)



4_ www.Eugenefn.com

도표 4

17,000

27,000

37,000

47,000

57,000

67,000

77,000

87,000

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2009-07-03 2009-05-29

(USD/day)


도표 5

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.720

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200BDI (좌축) 호주 석탄가격 (우축)

(pt) ($/ton)


도표 6

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

08.3 08.4 08.5 08.6 08.8 08.9 08.10 08.12 09.1 09.2 09.4 09.5 09.6 09.8200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400BDI (좌축) LME 철강 선물가격 (우축) ($/ton)(pt)


www.Eugenefn.com _5


2. 해운 운임 동향 : 컨테이너

도표 7

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7

Composite Index

Europe

W/C US

E/C US

($/TEU)

자료: Chineseshipping, 유진투자증권

도표 8

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7

Composite Index

Europe

W/C US

E/C US

(%)

자료: Chineseshipping, 유진투자증권

도표 9

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(30)

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20NOL Container Freight Rate(L) YoY(R)($/FEU) (%)

자료: NOL, 유진투자증권


6_ www.Eugenefn.com

도표 10

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

100HR(Left) YoY(Right) (%)(index)

자료: KMI, 유진투자증권

도표 11

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7 10.10

500

1,000

1,500

2,000NOL 컨테이너 운임 (좌축) HR 컨테이너 용선 지수 (우축)($/FEU) (P)

자료: NOL, KMI, 유진투자증권

www.Eugenefn.com _7


3. 유가 동향

도표 12

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7

($/bbl)


도표 13

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7

($/bbl)


도표 14

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7 10.1

($/ton)



8_ www.Eugenefn.com

4. 벌크 물동량 : AISlive

도표 15

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2008.01 2008.07 2009.01 2009.070

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000AISLive 중국 Dry Bulk 추정 물동량 합계 BDI (1000 DWT) (Point)


도표 16

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

2008.01 2008.07 2009.01 2009.070

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000AISLive 세계 Dry Bulk 추정 물동량 합계 BDI (1000 DWT) (Point)


www.Eugenefn.com _9


5. 벌크 물동량 : 품목별

도표 17

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

00.1 02.1 04.1 06.1 08.1 10.12,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000Baltic Dry Index (좌축) 호주 석탄 수출액 (우축)(pt) (백만USD)


도표 18

(200)

(100)

0

100

200

300

00.1 02.1 04.1 06.1 08.1 10.1(20)

0

20

40

60

80

100Baltic Dry Index yoy (좌축) 호주 석탄 수출액 yoy (우축) (%)(%)


도표 19

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140ABARE Thermal Coal Australia Energy Export Value Data (좌축)

YoY (우축)

(백만USD) (%)



10_ www.Eugenefn.com

도표 20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20ABARE Thermal Coal Australia Energy Export Volume Data (좌축)

YoY (우축)

(백만ton) (%)


도표 21

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09(50)

0

50

100

150

200ABARE Metallurgical Coal Australia Energy Export Value Data (좌축)

YoY (우축)

(백만USD) (%)


도표 22

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20ABARE Metallurgical Coal Australia Energy Export Volume Data (좌축)

YoY (우축)

(백만ton) (%)


www.Eugenefn.com _11


도표 23

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1(50)

0

50

100

150Australia Newcastle Coal Shipment Tonnes Shipped per Week (좌축)

YoY (우축)

(천ton) (%)


도표 24

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

08.7 08.8 08.9 08.10 08.11 08.12 09.1 09.2 09.3 09.4 09.5 09.6(50)

(30)

(10)

10

30

50

70Coal Stocks at Carrington+Koorangang (좌축)

WoW (우축)

(천ton) (%)


도표 25

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

00.1 02.1 04.1 06.1 08.1 10.10

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000Baltic Dry Index (좌축) 호주 철광석 수출액 (우축)

(pt) (백만USD)




도표 26

(200)

(100)

0

100

200

300

00.1 02.1 04.1 06.1 08.1 10.1(50)

0

50

100

150

200Baltic Dry Index yoy (좌축) 호주 철광석 수출액 yoy (우축)

(%) (%)


도표 27

0

100

200

300

400

85.12 89.12 93.12 97.12 01.12 05.12 09.12(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30호주 철광석 수출량 (좌축) 전년대비 증가율 (우축)

(백만ton) (%)


도표 28

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

85.12 89.12 93.12 97.12 01.12 05.12 09.12(20)

0

20

40

60

80호주 철광석 수출액 (좌축) 전년대비 증가율 (우축)

(%)(백만USD)




도표 29

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

00.1 01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250중국 석탄 수출량 (좌축) 전년대비 증가율 (우축)(백만ton) (%)


도표 30

0

2

4

6

8

10

06.1 06.4 06.7 06.10 07.1 07.4 07.7 07.10 08.1 08.4 08.7 08.10 09.1 09.4(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150

200중국 석탄 수입량 (좌축) 전년대비 증가율(백만ton) (%)


도표 31

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

00.1 01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80중국 석탄 생산량 (좌축) 전년대비 증가율 (우축)(백만ton) (%)




도표 32

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1

중국 석탄 재고량 전년대비 증가율

(%)


도표 33

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

05.1 05.7 06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50중국 철강 생산량 (좌축) 전년대비 증가율 (우축)(천ton) (%)


도표 34

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

05.1 05.7 06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70중국 철광석 수입량 Total (좌축) 전년대비 증가율 (우축)

(만ton) (%)




도표 35

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

07.6 07.9 07.12 08.3 08.6 08.9 08.12 09.3 09.6(20)

0

20

40

60

80

100중국 철광석 재고량 Total (좌축) 전년대비 증가율 (우축)(만ton) (%)


도표 36

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

00.1 01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250브라질 철광석 수출량 (좌축) 전년대비 증가율 (우축)(%)(천ton)


도표 37

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

00.1 01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1 10.10

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000BDI (좌축) 브라질 철광석 수출량 (우축)(pt) (천ton)




도표 38

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

00.1 01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(100)

0

100

200

300브라질 철광석 수출액 (좌축) 전년대비 증가율 (우축)

(%)(백만$)


도표 39

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

00.1 01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1 10.10

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500Baltic Dry Index (좌축) 브라질 철광석 수출액 (우축)(pt) (백만USD)


도표 40

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

85.1 88.5 91.9 95.1 98.5 01.9 05.1 08.5(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

100South Africa Mining Sales Coal (좌축) YoY (우축)(%)(백만$)




도표 41

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

85.1 88.5 91.9 95.1 98.5 01.9 05.1 08.5(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150South Africa Mining Sales Iron Ore (좌축) YoY (우축)

(%)(백만$)


도표 42

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30US DOE Coal Total Production and Carload Data (좌축) YoY (우축)(천ton) (%)




6. 벌크 수요 산업 생산 동향 : 철강

도표 43

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70China Output of Industrial Products Motor Vehicles (좌축) YoY (우축)(천대) (%)


도표 44

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180China Output of Industrial Products Cars (좌축) YoY (우축)

(천대) (%)


도표 45

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70China Output of Industrial Products Iron Ore (좌축) YoY (우축)(천ton) (%)




도표 46

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150

200China Output of Industrial Products Large Section Steel (좌축)

YoY (우축)

(천ton) (%)


도표 47

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60China Output of Industrial Products Medium & Small Section Steel (좌축)

YoY (우축)

(천ton) (%)


도표 48

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70China Output of Industrial Products Reinforcing Bar (좌축)

YoY (우축)

(천ton) (%)




도표 49

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70China Output of Industrial Products Thick Steel Plate (좌축)

YoY (우축)

(천ton) (%)


도표 50

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350China Output of Industrial Products Hot Rolled Thin Steel Sheet (좌축)

YoY (우축)

(천ton) (%)


도표 51

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

100China Output of Industrial Products Cold Rolled Thin Steel Sheet (좌축)

YoY (우축)

(천ton) (%)




도표 52

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

04.1 04.7 05.1 05.7 06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1

China Fixed Assets Investment Floor Space of Building Cumm YoY(%)


도표 53

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

04.1 04.7 05.1 05.7 06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1

China Fixed Assets Investment Real Estate Cummulative YoY(%)


도표 54 –

100

110

120

130

140

150

02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1

China Entrepreneur Confidence Index Construction

(Pt)




도표 55 –

100

110

120

130

140

150

02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1

China Business Climate Index Construction

(Pt)


도표 56

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

07.1 07.4 07.7 07.10 08.1 08.4 08.7 08.10 09.10

5

10

15

20

25

30

35China Property -Floor Space of Commercial Buildings Under Construction (좌축)

YoY (우축)

(백만 sq.m) (%)


도표 57

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

07.1 07.4 07.7 07.10 08.1 08.4 08.7 08.10 09.10

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40China Property - Floor Space under Construction Residential Buildings (좌축)

YoY (우축)

(백만 sq.m) (%)




7. 벌크 가격 : 철강

도표 58

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1

China Domestic Cold Rolled Steel Sheet Spot Average Price(RMB/Ton)


도표 59

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1

China Domestic Hot Rolled Steel Sheet Spot Average Price(RMB/Ton)


도표 60

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7

China Weekly Cold Rolled Steel Sheet 1mm Export Price Shanghai(USD/Ton)




도표 61

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7

China Weekly Cold Rolled Steel Sheet 1mm Import Price Shanghai(USD/Ton)


도표 62

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7

China Weekly Hot Rolled Steel 3mm Export Price Shanghai(USD/Ton)


도표 63

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7

China Weekly Hot Rolled Steel 3mm Import Price Shanghai

(USD/Ton)




도표 64

50

100

150

200

250

08.5 08.6 08.7 08.8 08.9 08.10 08.11 08.12 09.1 09.2 09.3 09.4 09.5 09.6

Iron Ore CIF China Fines Month 1



(USD/Ton)


도표 65

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

05.1 05.7 06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1

Japan Iron and Steel Scrap H2 Grade Weekly Average Prices

(Yen/Ton)


도표 66

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

04.1 04.7 05.1 05.7 06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1

Steel EU Imports Hot rolled coil cfr Western Europe Euros per tonne

(EUR/Ton)




도표 67

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

04.1 04.7 05.1 05.7 06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1

Steel EU Imports Cold rolled coil cfr Western Europe Euros per tonne(EUR/Ton)


도표 68

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

04.1 04.7 05.1 05.7 06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1

Steel EU Domestic Hot rolled coil Euros per tonne(EUR/Ton)


도표 69

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

04.1 04.7 05.1 05.7 06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1

Steel EU Domestic Cold rolled coil Euro per tonne(EUR/Ton)




8. 컨테이너 물동량 : AISlive

도표 70

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2008.01 2008.07 2009.01 2009.07

AISLive 중국 컨테이너 추정 물동량 합계

AISLive 유럽 컨테이너 추정 물동량 합계

(000 TEUs)




9. 컨테이너 물동량 : 항구별

도표 71

0

200

400

600

04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50L.A. inbound 물동량 (좌축) 전년동월대비 증가율 (우축)

(천 TEU) (%)


도표 72

0

100

200

300

400

04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(50)

(30)

(10)

10

30

50

L.B. inbound 물동량 (좌축) 전년동월대비 증가율 (우축)(천 TEU) [%]


도표 73

0

200

400

600

800

04.01 05.01 06.01 07.01 08.01 09.01(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50L.A.+L.B. inbound 물동량(좌축) 전년동월대비 증가율(우축)

(천 TEU) (%)




도표 74

0

50

100

150

200

04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60L.A. outbound 물동량 (좌축) 전년동월대비 증가율 (우축)(천 TEU) [%]


도표 75

0

50

100

150

200

04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60L.B. outbound 물동량 (좌축) 전년동월대비 증가율 (우축)

(천 TEU) [%]


도표 76

-

100

200

300

400

04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60L.A+L.B outbound 물동량 (좌축) 전년동월대비 증가율 (우축)(천 TEU) (%)




도표 77

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

05.1 05.7 06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30홍콩 항구 물동량(좌축) 전년동월대비 증가율(우축)(천 TEU) [%]


도표 78

1,000

1,400

1,800

2,200

2,600

3,000

04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(40)

(20)

0

20

40싱가폴 항구 물동량 전년동월대비 증가율(천 TEU) [%]


도표 79

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60NOL 컨테이너 처리량 (좌축) 전년동월대비 증가율 (우축)(천 FEU) (%)

자료: NOL, 유진투자증권



10. 세계 해운사 Fleet 추이

도표 80

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.75

7

9

11

13

15

컨테이너 Fleet (좌축) 전년대비 증가율 (우축)(%)(천DWT)


도표 81

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.72

4

6

8건화물 Fleet (좌축) 전년대비 증가율 (우축)

(천DWT) (%)


도표 82

260,000

280,000

300,000

320,000

07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.70

2

4

6

8

10탱커 Fleet (좌축) 전년대비 증가율 (우축)

(%)(천DWT)




11. 세계 벌크 항구 체선 현황

도표 83

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.70

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90BDI (좌축) 대기 선박수 (우축) (No.of Vessels)(pt)

자료: Bloomberg, Newcastle port, 유진투자증권

도표 84

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.70

5

10

15

20

25

30

35BDI (좌축) 평균 대기 시간 (우축)

(pt) (days)

자료: Bloomberg, Newcastle port, 유진투자증권

도표 85

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

08.5 08.6 08.8 08.9 08.11 09.1 09.2 09.4 09.6 09.70

200

400

600

800BDI (좌축) Vale 대기 선박 수 : DWT 기준 (우축)

(pt) (만DWT)




12. 해운 관련 macro 지표: 국가별 산업생산

도표 86

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1

US Industrial Production YoY 2002=100 SA(%)


도표 87

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1

Eurostat Industrial Production Eurozone Industry Ex Construction YoY WDA(%)


도표 88

0

5

10

15

20

25

01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1

China Value Added of Industry YoY(%)




도표 89

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1

Japan Industrial Production YoY NSA(%)


도표 90

(35)

(25)

(15)

(5)

5

15

25

01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1

South Korea Industrial Production YoY NSA 2005=100(%)




13. 해운 관련 macro 지표: 국가별 경기 선행 지수

도표 91

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1

OECD US Leading Indicators 6 Month % Change(%)


도표 92

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1

OECD Euro Area Leading Indicators 6 Month % Change(%)


도표 93

0

5

10

15

20

25

01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1

OECD China Leading Indicators 6 Month % Change(%)




도표 94

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1

OECD Japan Leading Indicators 6 Month % Change(%)


도표 95

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1

OECD Korea Leading Indicators 6 Month % Change(%)




14. 항공 : 인천공항 수송량 지표

도표 96

70

80

90

100

110

120

06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20인천공항 대한항공 국제여객(좌축) 전년동월대비 증가율(우축)(만명) (%)

자료: 인천공항, 유진투자증권

도표 97

40

50

60

70

80

06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30인천공항 아시아나항공 국제여객(좌축) 전년동월대비 증가율(우축)(만명) (%)


도표 98

0

4

8

12

16

06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150인천공항 중국동방항공 국제여객(좌축) 전년동기대비 증가율(우축)(만명) (%)




도표 99

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

100인천공항 중국남방항공 국제여객(좌축) 전년동기대비 증가율(우축)(만명) (%)


도표 100

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20인천공항 대한항공 화물(좌축) 전년동월대비 증가율(우축)(만톤) (%)


도표 101

2

3

4

5

6

06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

100인천공항 아시아나항공 화물(좌축) 전년동월대비 증가율(우축)(만톤) (%)




15. 항공 : 해외 항공사 수송량

도표 102

(30)

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

05.1 05.7 06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7

국제여객 증가율 화물 증가율(%)


도표 103

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

05.1 05.7 06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7



도표 104

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

05.1 05.7 06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7





도표 105

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

05.1 05.7 06.1 06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7





16. 주가추이 : 해운

도표 106

0

50

100

150

200

07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7

MSCI World Air Freight Local MSCI World Marine Local

MSCI World Road & Rail Local MSCI World Airlines Local

(07.1.1=100)


도표 107

0

200

400

600

800

07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7

한진해운

현대상선

EVERGREEN

AP Moller - Maersk

NOL

China Shipping Container

(07.1.1=100)


도표 108

0

200

400

600

800

07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7

대한해운

STX팬오션

DRYSHIPS INC

SHIPPING CORP OF INDIA

MALAYSIAN BULK

COSCO SINGAPORE

(07.1.1=100)

주 : STX팬오션은 07.9.20=100 기준임




17. 주가추이 : 항공

도표 109

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7

대한항공 아시아나

CATHAY PACIFIC SINGAPORE AIRLINESJAPAN AIRLINES ALL NIPPON AIRWAYS

(07.1.1=100)


도표 110

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7

대한항공 아시아나 US AIRWAYS

AMR CONTINENTAL SOUTHWEST

(07.1.1=100)


도표 111

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1 09.7

대한항공 아시아나

DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA-REG AIR FRANCE-KLMRYANAIR HOLDINGS FINNAIR OYJ

(07.1.1=100)




18. 상대 ROE-상대 PBR 비교

도표 112

PACIFIC BASINSTX팬오션

대한해운

ORIENT OVERSEAS

한진해운

0

1

2

3

(2) (1) 0 1 2 3 4 5

상대ROE(배)

상대PBR(배)


도표 113

Ryanair Holdings

Alaska

US AirwaysAMR

Thai Airways

Virgin Blue

China Airlines

ANA

Singapore

Cathay아시아나대한항공

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

(8) (6) (4) (2) 0 2 4

상대PBR(배)

상대ROE(배)




19. 세계 해운사(벌크)

도표 114

기업명

STX PAN

OCEAN CO

LTD

KOREA LINE

CORP

COSCO

SHIPPING

CO LTD-A

PACIFIC

BASIN

SHIPPING

LTD

MALAYSIAN

BULK

CARRIERS

BHD

U-MING

MARINE

TRANSPORT

CORP

COSCO

CORP

SINGAPORE

LTD

DRYSHIPS

INC

DIANA

SHIPPING

INC

EAGLE

BULK

SHIPPING

INC

Ticker 028670 ks

equity

005880 ks

equity

600428 ch

equity

2343 hk

equity

mbc mk

equity

2606 tt

equity

cos sp

equity

DRYS US

EQUITY

DSX US

Equity

EGLE US

Equity

환율 1,273.0 1,273.0 6.8 7.8 3.5 32.9 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0

Crncy KRW KRW CNY HKD MYR TWD SGD USD USD USD

종가 (Local) 11,400 61,800 11 5 3 65 1 5 13 4

종가 ($) 9.0 48.5 1.6 0.6 0.9 2.0 0.8 5.4 12.8 4.4

주식수 (백만주) 205.9 11.5 1,310.4 1,928.8 1,000.0 858.0 2,239.2 257.6 81.4 47.0

시가총액 (백만$) 1,844 559 2,044 1,217 868 1,700 1,898 1,402 1,045 206

주당지표 09

EPS ($) 0.7 2.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1

BPS ($) 10.7 91.5 0.9 0.7 0.5 1.0 0.4 8.9 12.3 10.8

DPS ($) 0.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.0

PER (배) 13.1 19.2 19.5 11.9 20.2 11.7 13.5

PBR (배) 0.8 0.5 1.8 0.9 1.7 2.0 2.1 0.6 1.0 0.4

EV/EBITDA (배) 31.2 10.1 7.3 32.4 6.1 5.1 8.5 7.1 8.7

DIV Yield (%) 1.6 2.0 2.1 3.3 4.7 4.8 3.2 0.0 45.7

이익규모 09

Sales (백만$) 5,323 1,516 835 783 88 319 2,340 809 227 199

OP (백만$) 136 72 212 102 29 141 223 175 121 68

OP Margin (%) 2.5 4.7 25.4 13.0 33.0 44.3 9.5 21.6 53.4 34.1

NP (백만$) 141 29 129 95 44 137 129 109 121 36

NP Margin (%) 2.7 1.9 15.5 12.1 50.3 43.0 5.5 13.5 53.2 18.3

ROE (%) 6.4 3.1 21.4 7.7 12.8 17.3 15.2 4.1 13.0 8.3

ROA (%) 3.8 1.4 8.6 12.1 3.9 1.8 9.3 1.9

주당지표 10

EPS ($) 0.5 3.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.3

BPS ($) 10.9 95.1 1.1 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.4 10.1 13.7 11.1

DPS ($) 0.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

PER (배) 19.5 13.8 18.8 19.7 15.8 12.8 5.9 8.7 13.7

PBR (배) 0.8 0.5 1.5 0.8 1.6 2.0 1.9 0.5 0.9 0.4

EV/EBITDA (배) 17.3 4.7 13.2 11.9 36.1 11.2 4.5 7.5 7.3 8.3

DIV Yield (%) 1.4 2.2 2.1 1.4 3.8 3.3 3.3 0.0 0.2

이익규모 10

Sales (백만$) 3,758 799 891 630 89 297 2,563 860 228 220

OP (백만$) 99 75 243 52 21 84 267 334 118 52

OP Margin (%) 2.6 9.4 27.3 8.2 23.5 28.2 10.4 38.8 51.8 23.8

NP (백만$) 94 41 138 23 43 94 147 221 115 11

NP Margin (%) 2.5 5.1 15.5 3.7 48.1 31.6 5.7 25.6 50.3 5.1

ROE (%) 4.2 4.2 20.3 2.3 12.6 11.9 14.5 8.5 10.6 3.1

ROA (%) 2.3 2.0 9.5 1.6 7.2 8.4 4.0 3.9 8.3 0.5

주: 주가 기준일 = 09.7.3




20. 세계 해운사(컨테이너)

도표 115

기업명 HANJIN

SHIPPING

NIPPON

YUSEN

CHINA

COSCO

HOLDINGS-

H

CHINA

SHIPPING

CONTAINER-

H

A P MOLLER

- MAERSK

A/S - B

ORIENT

OVERSEAS

INTL LTD

EVERGREEN

MARINE

YANG MING

MARINE

TRANSPRT

NEPTUNE

ORIENT

LINES LTD

WAN HAI

LINES

LIMITED

Ticker 000700 ks

equity

9101 JP

equity

1919 hk

equity

2866 hk

equity

MAERSKB

Dc equity

316 HK

equity2603 tt equity 2609 tt equity

NOL sp

equity2615 tt equity

환율 1,273.1 95.9 7.8 7.8 5.3 7.8 32.9 32.9 1.5 32.9

Crncy KRW JPY HKD HKD DKK HKD TWD TWD SGD TWD

종가 (Local) 17,700 406 9 2 30,900 34 17 12 1 15

종가 ($) 13.9 4.2 1.2 0.3 5,806.5 4.4 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.5

주식수 (백만주) 88.4 1,230.2 2,580.6 3,751.0 2.2 625.8 3,060.9 2,562.5 2,580.3 2,146.6

시가총액 (백만$) 1,229 5,208 18,254 6,093 25,317 2,770 1,539 926 2,560 998

주당지표 09

EPS ($) -0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0

BPS ($) 31.9 4.9 0.7 0.4 6,908.0 6.6 0.6 0.5 1.2 0.4

DPS ($) 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 88.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PER (배) -21.3 14.9 -34.6 -9.8 58.1 -12.2 -9.1 -5.2 -3.7 -42.3

PBR (배) 0.4 0.9 1.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.2

EV/EBITDA (배) 30.5 5.9 150.3 4.2 19.7 75.3 637.2 7.5

DIV Yield (%) 3.1 3.6 0.3 0.4 1.5 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.0

이익규모 09

Sales (백만$) 5,704 25,519 11,550 4,073 50,466 5,005 3,176 3,309 6,719 1,651

OP (백만$) -36 1,523 -311 -315 4,629 -55 -197 -229 -499 -43

OP Margin (%) -0.6 6.0 -2.7 -7.7 9.2 -1.1 -6.2 -6.9 -7.4 -2.6

NP (백만$) -57 402 -334 -311 386 -128 -176 -161 -498 -33

NP Margin (%) -1.0 1.6 -2.9 -7.6 0.8 -2.6 -5.5 -4.9 -7.4 -2.0

ROE (%) -2.3 7.7 -4.5 -6.7 1.0 -2.6 -11.0 -11.9 -20.9 -1.7

ROA (%) -0.8 5.0 -0.8 -4.0 0.2 -1.5 -4.5 -5.1 -8.4 -1.1

주당지표 10

EPS ($) -0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 416.4 0.0 -0.01 -0.03 -0.10 0.01

BPS ($) 30.7 4.9 0.6 0.4 7,269.7 6.6 0.6 0.5 1.1 0.4

DPS ($) 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PER (배) -18.2 22.8 61.9 -44.3 13.9 163.9 -83.8 -13.9 -9.6 77.5

PBR (배) 0.5 0.9 1.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2

EV/EBITDA (배) 7.5 7.0 28.4 45.3 3.4 9.0 10.1 15.3 24.3 6.0

DIV Yield (%) 3.2 1.1 0.6 0.0 1.7 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.9

이익규모 10

Sales (백만$) 5,416 20,685 11,450 4,344 53,855 5,478 3,411 3,642 7,414 1,844

OP (백만$) -48 655 210 -57 7,378 124 -38 -74 -83 45

OP Margin (%) -0.9 3.2 1.8 -1.3 13.7 2.3 -1.1 -2.0 -1.1 2.4

NP (백만$) -67 240 80 -74 1,765 10 -34 -89 -209 2

NP Margin (%) -1.2 1.2 0.7 -1.7 3.3 0.2 -1.0 -2.5 -2.8 0.1

ROE (%) -2.8 3.0 -0.6 -2.8 6.0 1.0 -3.6 -7.8 -10.2 3.1

ROA (%) -0.9 2.4 0.6 -1.6 2.4 0.7 -0.6 -2.1 -3.2 1.5 주: 주가 기준일 = 09.7.3 자료: Bloomberg, 유진투자증권



21. 세계 항공사(아시아)

도표 116

기업명

KOREAN AIR

LINES CO

LTD

CATHAY

PACIFIC

AIRWAYS

SINGAPORE

AIRLINES

LTD

JAPAN

AIRLINES

CORP

ALL NIPPON

AIRWAYS CO

LTD

CHINA

AIRLINES

EVA

AIRWAYS

CORP

QANTAS

AIRWAYS

LTD

VIRGIN BLUE

HOLDINGS

LTD

AIRASIA

BHD

Ticker 003490 Ks

equity

293 HK

equity SIA Sp equity

9205 JP

equity

9202 JP

equity

2610 Tt

equity

2618 Tt

equity

QAN AU

equity

VBA AU

equity

AIRA Mk

equity

환율 1,272.8 7.8 1.5 95.9 95.9 32.9 32.9 0.8 0.8 3.5

Crncy KRW HKD SGD JPY JPY TWD TWD AUD AUD MYR

종가 (Local) 36,200 11 13 184 317 8 9 2 0 1

종가 ($) 28.4 1.4 8.9 1.9 3.3 0.3 0.3 2.4 0.4 0.3

주식수 (백만주) 72.0 3,933.8 1,186.5 2,732.4 1,950.0 4,859.5 3,942.7 2,265.1 1,051.9 2,375.5

시가총액 (백만$) 2,047 5,360 10,564 5,242 6,445 1,215 1,066 6,065 390 761

주당지표 09

EPS ($) -0.5 0.0 0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1

BPS ($) 24.4 1.3 8.3 0.7 2.4 0.2 0.2 2.2 0.5 0.3

DPS ($) 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0

PER (배) -58.1 194.6 13.9 -8.7 -62.5 -90.1 44.3 -20.6 6.3

PBR (배) 1.2 1.1 1.1 2.9 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.7 1.3

EV/EBITDA (배) 9.8 4.7 11.7 15.0 13.6 4.9 7.9 7.7

DIV Yield (%) 1.4 0.5 5.7 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0

이익규모 09

Sales (백만$) 7,231 8,555 10,828 20,167 14,926 3,056 2,229 11,740 2,012 802

OP (백만$) 179 161 748 -526 60 58 168 -3 191

OP Margin (%) 2.5 1.9 6.9 -2.6 2.0 2.6 1.4 -0.2 23.8

NP (백만$) -36 20 763 -914 -11 2 118 -7 124

NP Margin (%) -0.5 0.2 7.0 -4.5 -0.4 0.1 1.0 -0.3 15.5

ROE (%) -1.9 -0.3 7.7 -28.1 -11.6 -14.3 2.6 -4.9 23.0

ROA (%) -0.3 -0.5 4.4 1.2 0.3 6.0

주당지표 10

EPS ($) -0.8 0.1 0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1

BPS ($) 23.6 1.3 8.5 0.7 1.8 0.1 0.2 2.2 0.5 0.3

DPS ($) 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0

PER (배) -34.3 19.5 26.4 -7.0 -34.8 27.8 27.0 24.9 18.5 5.5

PBR (배) 1.2 1.0 1.1 2.6 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.1 0.7 1.0

EV/EBITDA (배) 7.5 5.4 24.7 10.7 10.7 10.9 4.2 4.2 6.6

DIV Yield (%) 1.4 1.7 2.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0

이익규모 10

Sales (백만$) 7,556 9,491 8,662 18,173 13,537 3,304 2,420 11,179 2,144 942

OP (백만$) 229 464 406 -664 27 177 104 406 103 202

OP Margin (%) 3.0 4.9 4.7 -3.7 0.2 5.4 4.3 3.6 4.8 21.4

NP (백만$) -61 279 409 -730 -184 44 41 230 24 129

NP Margin (%) -0.8 2.9 4.7 -4.0 -1.4 1.3 1.7 2.1 1.1 13.7

ROE (%) -3.2 5.5 4.3 -47.4 -5.8 -0.4 -8.2 3.3 3.8 18.2

ROA (%) -0.5 2.1 2.6 -4.2 0.8 1.5 2.8 4.6

주: 주가 기준일 = 09.7.3 자료: Bloomberg, 유진투자증권



22. 세계 항공사(미국, 유럽)

도표 117

기업명 AMR CORP US AIRWAYS

GROUP INC

CONTINENT

AL

AIRLINES-

CLASS B

SOUTHWEST

AIRLINES CO

JETBLUE

AIRWAYS

CORP

DEUTSCHE

LUFTHANSA

-REG

RYANAIR

HOLDINGS

PLC

AIR

FRANCE-

KLM

IBERIA

LINEAS AER

DE ESPANA

ALITALIA

Ticker AMR US

equity

LCC US

equity

CAL US

equity

LUV US

equity

JBLU US

equity

LHA GR

Equity

RYA ID

Equity AF FP Equity

IBLA SM

Equity

AZA IM

Equity

환율 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40

Crncy USD USD USD USD USD EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR

종가 (Local) 4 2 10 7 4 9 3 9 1

종가 ($) 4.2 2.5 9.8 6.5 4.2 6.3 2.3 6.2 1.1

주식수 (백만주) 285.0 129.3 123.7 740.8 296.5 457.9 1,476.5 300.2 953.1 1,386.7

시가총액 (백만$) 1,203 318 1,211 4,815 1,243 2,864 3,361 1,869 1,017

주당지표 09

EPS ($) -2.9 -2.3 -1.3 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -2.0 -0.1

BPS ($) -12.1 -7.5 4.0 6.6 6.0 19.9 2.4 37.8 2.4

DPS ($) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

PER (배) -1.5 -1.1 -7.5 36.1 16.6 -42.0 52.9 -3.2 -15.9

PBR (배) -0.3 -0.3 2.4 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.4

EV/EBITDA (배) 7.9 7.0 5.8 7.6 2.6 14.7 5.7

DIV Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.5

이익규모 09

Sales (백만$) 20,332 10,662 12,914 10,143 3,299 31,849 4,166 32,755 6,851

OP (백만$) -221 54 118 404 313 434 147 -240 -132

OP Margin (%) -1.1 0.5 0.9 4.0 9.5 1.4 3.5 -0.7 -1.9

NP (백만$) -959 -333 -154 135 78 -121 88 -598 -55

NP Margin (%) -4.7 -3.1 -1.2 1.3 2.4 -0.4 2.1 -1.8 -0.8

ROE (%) 13.2 1.7 4.6 -1.7 2.0 -5.8 -1.9

ROA (%) 0.1 -0.8 -1.2

주당지표 10

EPS ($) -0.4 -0.4 1.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 -1.8 0.1

BPS ($) -16.4 -10.9 5.3 6.3 7.1 20.5 2.7 28.2 2.5

DPS ($) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

PER (배) -9.5 -6.7 6.5 18.0 9.3 9.3 6.2 -3.4 8.4

PBR (배) -0.3 -0.2 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.4

EV/EBITDA (배) 5.6 7.4 4.3 4.6 6.8 2.2 6.5 6.0

DIV Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 2.9

이익규모 10

Sales (백만$) 21,671 11,435 13,742 10,878 3,634 33,003 4,309 31,233 7,004

OP (백만$) 342 181 517 686 410 829 729 -435 118

OP Margin (%) 1.6 1.6 3.8 6.3 11.3 2.5 16.9 -1.4 1.7

NP (백만$) -321 -146 136 266 134 308 554 -543 116

NP Margin (%) -1.5 -1.3 1.0 2.4 3.7 0.9 12.8 -1.7 1.7

ROE (%) 84.9 0.6 6.1 2.8 15.1 -6.5 4.7

ROA (%) 1.3 7.8 -1.2 2.0




23. 세계 해운, 항공사 주가 및 Valuation

도표 118

구분 단위 종가 -1D

(%)

-5D

(%)

-1M

(%)

-3M

(%)

-6M

(%)

-1Yr

(%)

-YTD

(%)

PER

(12 fwd)

PER

(relative)

PBR

(12 fwd)

PBR

(relative

항공 : 아시아

대한항공 KRW 35,850 -1.0 3.0 -4.4 -9.1 -6.6 -17.0 -5.7 13.0 1.1 0.7 0.5

아시아나 KRW 3,710 -0.5 0.3 -8.5 -2.9 2.5 -25.1 7.2 8.0 0.7 0.7 0.6

Cathay HKD 10.6 -1.1 6.1 -4.2 21.2 18.5 -23.7 21.1 19.4 1.1 1.0 0.7

Singapore SGD 13.2 0.0 4.4 6.1 24.1 11.7 -5.2 17.2 14.9 1.0 1.0 0.7

JAL JPY 184.0 -1.6 -2.6 -2.1 -9.4 -13.2 -16.0 -13.2 102.2 3.3 2.1 1.7

ANA JPY 318.0 0.3 -7.3 -9.7 -14.7 -10.2 -19.3 -10.2 159.0 5.2 1.7 1.4

China Airlines TWD 8.2 0.0 -0.5 -8.3 -14.0 7.2 -39.3 7.2 27.8 1.2 1.7 0.9

Eva TWD 8.9 0.0 0.6 -5.4 -7.9 18.7 -34.6 18.7 28.2 1.2 1.2 0.7

Qantas AUD 1.9 -3.3 -5.2 -12.6 3.0 -28.1 -39.3 -27.6 16.0 0.7 0.7 0.4

Virgin Blue AUD 0.3 -3.3 -4.8 -11.9 -11.9 -3.3 -38.5 -1.7 11.3 0.5 0.5 0.3

Thai Airways THB 14.4 1.4 4.3 5.1 47.7 85.8 -22.6 85.8 6.0 0.5 0.4 0.3

China Eastern HKD 1.7 0.0 0.0 -1.1 30.8 47.5 -20.9 48.7 -72.5 -4.2 -5.8 -4.2

China Southern HKD 2.1 -4.7 3.5 -12.0 15.8 55.3 5.3 58.9 13.8 0.8 1.4 1.0

Air China HKD 3.8 0.0 7.0 -3.3 16.9 56.4 7.0 58.3 21.7 1.3 1.9 1.4

AirAsia MYR 1.2 0.0 -1.7 -10.9 15.6 30.7 23.7 32.9 5.6 0.4 1.0 0.6

Jet Airways INR 238.0 1.7 6.6 -30.1 35.7 15.3 -25.9 17.2 123.1 7.4 0.4 0.1

항공 : 미국, 유럽

AMR USD 4.2 1.9 -1.4 -18.8 12.5 -62.1 -12.6 -60.4 -9.5 -0.7 -0.3 -0.2

US Airways USD 2.5 2.1 3.8 -16.6 -17.2 -70.7 2.5 -68.2 -6.7 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1

Continental USD 9.8 6.2 9.1 -8.7 -4.7 -48.9 7.8 -45.8 6.5 0.5 1.9 1.1

Southwest USD 6.5 -4.4 -1.8 -6.7 -5.2 -27.5 -50.2 -24.6 18.0 1.3 1.0 0.6

JetBlue USD 4.2 -3.9 1.2 -2.3 -5.0 -42.0 25.4 -41.0 9.3 0.7 0.6 0.4

Skywest USD 10.3 -2.7 1.1 -6.0 -27.2 -46.0 -12.7 -44.7 5.8 0.4

Alaska USD 18.4 -1.9 2.6 13.4 -7.2 -38.0 36.2 -37.3 8.1 0.6 0.8 0.5

Airtran USD 6.2 -4.9 5.1 -2.1 21.2 36.8 207.0 39.0 6.5 0.5 1.4 0.8

Deutsche EUR 8.8 -2.3 -0.7 -13.2 -3.4 -25.0 -36.0 -21.8 18.4 1.6 0.6 0.4

Ryanair Holdings EUR 3.2 -4.6 -2.0 -13.8 6.2 1.1 20.6 7.2 10.7 0.9 1.4 1.0

Air France EUR 8.7 -5.3 -3.7 -21.4 11.0 -11.1 -39.5 -5.0 -242.0 -20.9 0.4 0.3

Iberia Lineas EUR 1.5 -0.5 0.9 -7.0 -10.6 -25.7 9.0 -24.6 16.4 1.4 0.8 0.6

Finnair EUR 3.7 -2.1 -2.9 -20.9 -12.4 -22.9 -17.3 -24.7 -167.3 -14.5 0.7 0.5

해운 : 건화물

대한해운 KRW 61,700 -1.8 -0.5 -24.0 -7.5 -13.0 -61.1 -6.5 1.9 0.2 0.5 0.4

STX팬오션 KRW 11,400 -1.3 0.9 -20.0 11.2 11.2 -40.2 21.3 29.6 3.0 0.9 0.7

COSCO SHIPPING CNY 10.8 3.1 3.0 -7.9 3.6 68.3 -16.2 68.3 19.0 1.3 1.5 0.6

CHANG JIANG CNY 5.4 0.4 -2.4 -6.1 3.1 29.2 -16.1 29.2 31.5 2.2

PACIFIC BASIN HKD 4.9 -1.2 0.4 -20.4 15.9 29.4 -55.9 38.9 37.1 2.2 0.8 0.6

SHIPPING CORP INDIA INR 132.0 -1.4 9.7 -12.6 63.8 51.7 -10.1 65.8

MALAYSIAN BULK MYR 3.1 0.0 -1.3 -10.0 -3.8 25.4 -14.0 28.0 19.9 1.3 1.7 0.9

U-MING MARINE TWD 64.7 0.0 0.2 -7.3 21.8 64.6 -21.0 64.6 15.7 0.7 2.0 1.1

NANJING WATER CNY 6.3 2.3 -0.3 -7.5 8.0 63.7 -15.6 63.7 14.0 1.0 1.7 0.7

DRYSHIPS USD 5.4 -4.2 -6.4 -26.7 3.6 -56.4 -92.3 -49.0 5.9 0.4 0.5 0.3

CMB CIE EUR 21.5 -2.6 2.5 -7.5 23.3 14.9 -42.0 19.4 17.1 1.5 1.1 0.8

DIANA USD 12.8 -3.1 -6.4 -22.2 -4.5 -7.8 -52.0 0.5 8.7 0.6 0.9 0.6

EXCEL USD 6.4 -4.1 -1.9 -37.4 2.9 -20.0 -80.7 -9.8 16.8 1.2 0.3 0.2

EAGLE BULK USD 4.4 -3.3 -9.1 -34.5 -5.6 -40.4 -83.0 -35.8 13.7 1.0 0.4 0.2

해운 : 컨테이너

한진해운 KRW 17,700 -1.1 3.2 -16.1 -16.7 -9.0 -52.1 -2.2 4.8 0.5 0.4 0.3

현대상선 KRW 24,000 -1.0 -3.0 -12.1 -18.5 -34.4 -39.3 -35.3 17.7 1.5 1.3 1.0

CHINA COSCO HKD 9.1 -1.3 -0.2 -23.4 56.8 57.1 -49.9 69.0 69.5 4.0 2.1 1.5

CHINA SHIPPING HKD 2.1 -1.0 3.5 -18.6 15.7 64.8 -27.7 76.1 -49.0 -2.8 0.8 0.6

A P MOLLER DKK 30,900 -3.7 -0.3 -6.1 12.4 5.1 -42.1 10.0 14.0 0.9 0.8 0.4

ORIENT OVERSEAS HKD 34.3 3.6 10.1 -5.0 45.3 93.3 -9.7 99.2 1,270.4 73.8 5.2 3.8

EVERGREEN TWD 16.9 0.0 1.5 -16.0 7.3 9.1 -26.7 9.1 -84.7 -3.7 0.8 0.5

YANG MING TWD 12.2 0.0 3.4 -15.3 2.1 20.3 -32.2 20.3 -14.4 -0.6 0.8 0.4

NOL SGD 1.5 0.0 -7.6 -8.2 18.1 33.8 -46.7 43.4 -14.1 -0.9 1.3 0.9

WAN HAI TWD 15.6 0.0 3.3 -13.1 1.0 10.2 -30.6 10.2 76.8 3.4 1.2 0.7

NYK JPY 405.0 -2.2 -4.5 -12.9 -2.4 -25.7 -58.2 -25.7 8.3 0.3 0.8 0.6




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weekly neutral 운송(해운/항공) · 2014-04-12 · p3a_03 japan-sk/pacific/round voyage panamax...

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