June2016

WHATWILLTHEGLOBALLIGHT-DUTYVEHICLEFLEETLOOKLIKETHROUGH2050?

GalSitty,NathanTaft

FuelFreedomFoundation

18100VonKarmanAvenue,Suite870

Irvine,California92612

AbstractThisstudyexaminesseveralscenariosusingtheLight-DutyVehicleFleetProjectionTool(“Tool”),whichisdesignedtoprojectthesizeandcompositionofthegloballight-dutyvehicle(LDV)fleetthroughtheyear2050.Theinitialsizeandcompositionofthe2015fleetwasdeterminedthroughacomprehensiveliteraturereview,whiletheageofthefleetwasdeterminedviaaback-castingmethodology.TheinteractiveToolincorporatesuser-suppliedgrowthratesbyvehiclepowertraintoprojectvehiclesales,fleetsize,andcompositionthrough2050.ThisstudyinputninescenariosintotheTool,basedonLow,Medium,andHighLDVfleetgrowthscenariosandthreeelectricvehicle(EV)salesgrowthscenarios.TheEVsalesgrowthscenarioswerederivedfromreportsfromtheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),BloombergNewEnergyFinance(BNEF),andGoldmanSachs(GS).Intheyear2050,allninescenariosmodeledshowedincreasesintheEVfleet,thealternativefuelvehicle(AFV)fleet,andtheoverallfleetsize,andallbutoneshowedincreasesinthesizeoftheinternalcombustionengine(ICE)fleet.TwooftheninescenariosfoundEVsalesexceedingICEvehiclesalesinfutureyears,andonlyonescenariofoundEVstocomprisealargerportionofthefleetthanICEvehicles.ThehighestEVfleetpenetration,withEVscomprising49percentoftheLDVfleetin2050,wasfoundinthescenariocombininglowoverallfleet-growthwithIEAtargetsforEVsales.Itshowedthat,evenundertheIEA’soptimisticforecastforEVgrowth,combinedwithaslowgrowthofthefleetoverall,therewouldstillbemorethan900millionICEvehiclesontheroadby2050.ThelowestEVfleetpenetrationin2050,withEVscomprising16percentoftheLDVfleet,wasfoundinthehighfleet-growthscenariowithEVsalesderivedfromGSprojections.Underthisscenario,theglobalICEfleetwouldcontainalmost3billionvehicles–nearlytriplewhatitisnow.

Contents

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 4

1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 5 2. Methodology ................................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Establishing the global 2015 fleet ................................................................................................... 6 2.2 Projected sales growth rates ............................................................................................................ 6 2.3 Limits on EV, AFV and ICE sales .................................................................................................. 6 2.4 Vehicle retirement ............................................................................................................................ 7 2.5 Fleet composition ............................................................................................................................. 7 2.6 Graphs ................................................................................................................................................ 8 3. Scenarios ................................................................................................................................................................... 8 3.1 Scenario findings ............................................................................................................................. 9 4. Discussion ....................................................................................................................................................... 11 4.1 Impact on emissions ...................................................................................................................... 11 4.1.1 GHGs .............................................................................................................. 12 4.1.2 Air quality ....................................................................................................... 12 4.1.3 Potential mitigation strategies ....................................................................... 12 4.2 Impact on infrastructure ................................................................................................................. 13 4.2.1 Battery production capacity ........................................................................... 13 4.2.2 Charging infrastructure ................................................................................. 13 4.3 Energy security ................................................................................................................................ 14 4.4 Potential pathways to reduce the impact of ICE vehicles ............................................................. 14 4.4.1 Addressing the need for more liquid fuel options ......................................... 14 4.4.2 Combining advanced ICE technology with fuel development ...................... 15 4.5 Model limitations ............................................................................................................................. 15 4.5.1 Regional variation .......................................................................................... 15 4.5.2 Vehicle retirement .......................................................................................... 16 4.5.3 AFV variability ............................................................................................... 16 4.5.4 Uncertainties in the market ........................................................................... 16 4.6 Opportunities for further building out the model ........................................................................... 16 4.6.1 Adding emissions outputs .............................................................................. 17 4.6.2 Localized versions of the model ..................................................................... 17 5. Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................................... 17 References ......................................................................................................................................................... 19

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ExecutiveSummary

TheLight-DutyFleetProjection(“Tool”)wasdesignedtoprojectthesizeandmakeupofthegloballight-dutyvehicle(LDV)fleetthroughtheyear2050,brokenoutbetweeninternalcombustionengine(ICE)vehicles,electricvehicles(EVs),andotheralternativefuelvehicles(AFVs).TheToolallowsuserstoinputassumptionsonglobalsalesgrowthratesforeachvehicletype,andusesthoseassumptionstoprojectglobalgrowthineachcategorythrough2050.OurstudyusedtheTooltoexamineninedifferentscenarioswithvaryinggrowthratesfortotalLDVsandEVs.Itfoundthefollowing:

• UnderthemostoptimisticforecastforEVsalesgrowth,EVsareprojectedtoaccountfor—atbest—justunder50percentofthetotalfleetbytheyear2050.Therestwereinternal-combustionengine(ICE)vehicles(andarelativelysmallfractionofalternative-fuelvehicleslikehydrogenfuelcells).

• Through2050,onlyonescenarioprojectedthesizeoftheEVfleetsurpassingthesizeoftheICEfleet,andonlytwoscenariosprojectedEVsalessurpassingICEsales.

• TheprojectedaveragesizeoftheEVfleetin2050was819million,withalowof611millionandahighof1.11billion.TheprojectedaveragesizefortheICEvehiclefleetin2050was1.97billion,withalowof900millionandahighof3billion.

• TheoverallLDVfleetwasprojectedtonumbersomewherebetween2.28and3.87billion.Consideringthesefindings,asingularrelianceonEVstosolvetransportationrelatedproblemsassociatedwithemissionsandpetroleumdependenceappearstobeaninadequatestrategy.PoliciesthataddressthecontinuedprevalenceofICEvehiclesthroughtheuseofalternativeliquidfuels,fuelefficiency,etc.intandemwithanEVgrowthstrategycouldnotonlyhelpusreachclimate,urbanpollution,economic,andpetroleumreductiongoalsfaster,butprovideuswithmoreconfidencethatthosegoalswillindeedbereached.Allowingindustry,policymakersandconsumerstochoosebetweenmultipleplans(including,butnotlimitedto,biofuels,high-octanefuels,fuelcells,etc.,oracombination),couldensurearobust,competitivemarketplacethatdrivesinnovationandbringsusclosertoalesspollutedworld.

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1. Introduction Sincethemainstreamingoftheautomobileintheearly1900s,personalmobilityhasexploded:Today,therearemorethan1.2billionvehiclesaroundtheworld,andmorethan95percentofthosearelight-dutyvehicles(LDVs)[1]—carsandtrucksweighinglessthan8,500pounds.By2050,thatnumberislikelytobesignificantlyhigherthanitisnow,withmanyforecastsestimatingthattheglobalvehiclefleetwillnumber2billionormore[2][3][4].Othersprojectfleetsizesofnearly3billion[5],andaslargeas4billion[6].Insupportoftheseestimatesisthefactthatglobalvehiclesaleshavesteadilyincreasedbyalmost3percenteveryyearfortwodecades[7],andvehiclesarestayingontheroadforlongerperiodsoftime[8].WhileitisanearempiricalcertaintythattheLDVfleetof2050willbelargerthanitistoday,exactlyhowmuchlarger,andwhattypeofvehiclesitwillbecomposedof,isstillverymuchinquestion.Morethan95percentofLDVsinusetodayarepoweredbyaninternalcombustionengine(ICE),fueledwithgasolineordiesel[9].TheremainderofLDVsarealternativefuelvehicles(AFVs)thatareeithernaturalgasvehicles(NGVs),petroleumautogasvehicles(PAVs),orhydrogenfuelcellvehicles(FCVs),andbattery/plug-inhybridelectricvehicles(EVs)propelledbyelectricity.Combined,theAFVpowertrainsmakeupabout4percentoftheglobalfleet,withEVsaccountingforlessthan1percent.Currently,policymakersaroundtheworldareworkingtofigureouthowtocombatclimatechange.Emissionsfromthetransportationsectorconstitute23percentofenergy-relatedglobalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions,ofwhich72percentisfromon-roadtransport[10].Whenaccountingfortheemissionsfromthefulllifecycleofproduction,distributionandconsumptionoftransportationfuels,thatfigureisevenhigher.UnderstandingthecompositionoftheLDVfleethasimportantimplicationsforpolicydevelopment,meetingemissionsgoals,infrastructureinvestment,businessplanningandmore.Suchknowledgecouldaidindevelopingstrategiesforenergysecurity,globaldevelopmentandformeetingclimategoalsandemissions-reductiontargets.Knowingthepotentialmarketsizeforvariousvehicletechnologiesandfuelscouldhelpinbusinessplanningforproducersandsuppliersintherelevantindustries.Thenumberofvehiclesontheroadcouldalsoinfluenceurbanplanningandtrafficmanagement.TheLight-DutyVehicleFleetProjectionTool(“Tool”),wasbuilttohelpprovideinformationonalloftheaboveissues.Itallowsuserstoinputtheirassumptionsonthegrowthrateoftheoverallfleet,thegrowthrateofEVs,andthegrowthrateofAFVs,inordertoshowwhatLDVsalesandthetotalLDVfleetwilllooklikeeachyearfrom2016through2050.Thegoalistoallowusersandpolicymakerstolookatmultiplescenarioswithdifferingassumptionsandplanaccordingly.2. Methodology ToconstructtheTool,firstwehadtoestablishthesizeandcompositionofthecurrentLDVfleet.Fromthisinitialassessment,webuiltaworksheetinMicrosoftExceltocalculateannualsalesforeachvehicletechnology,theirmarketshare,andtheirrespectiveshareofthetotalLDVfleetinanygivenyearthrough2050.ThenumberscalculatedbytheToolaredependentonthegrowthratepercentagesinputbytheuserforLDVsales,EVsales,andAFVsales.Toaccountforvehicleretirement,weusedcomponentsfromArgonneNationalLaboratory’sVISIONmodel[11]todevelopthreeworksheetsforvehicleretirementbyageandtechnologytype.

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2.1 Establishing the global 2015 fleet Webeganwithaliteraturereviewtodeterminethesizeandmakeupofthecurrentfleet,assessforecastedsales,andanalyzehistoricalsalesdata.WereliedonNavigant’s“TransportationForecast:Light-DutyVehicles”fortheapproximate2015LDVfleetsize[12].Tobegin,weneededtodefineeachvehiclepowertrainclassification.Becauseoneofthegoalsofthisprojectwastoinvestigatetheproliferationofgrid-connectedvehicles,weclassifiedthetwotypesofthesevehicles–plug-inhybridelectricvehicles(PHEVs)andbatteryelectricvehicles(BEVs)—asEVs.Therestofthevehiclesontheroadwerethenclassifiedintooneoftwocategories:ICEvehiclesorAFVs.TheICEvehiclecategoryiscomprisedofvehiclesthatrelyonaninternalcombustionengineprimarilypoweredbygasoline,diesel,orethanol.Despitehavinganelectricmotor,hybridelectricvehicles(HEVs)areincludedinthiscategory,astheyrequireliquidfuelstofunction.Othertechnologiesthatdidnotfallintothatcategory—includingnaturalgasvehicles(NGVs),propaneautogasvehicles(PAVs),alsoreferredtoasliquidpropanegas(LPG),andfuelcellvehicles(FCVs)—wereclassifiedasalternativefuelvehicles(AFVs).ThetechnologiesintheAFVcategoryrequirefuelsandinfrastructurethataremostlyincompatiblewitheitherEVorgasoline/dieselICEtechnologies.Forthevariousvehicleplatforms,weassembleddatafromamultitudeofsources:FortheEVfleet,wesummedtheannualsalesofEVsfrom2010through2015[13][14][15][16],assumingthatsalesbefore2010werenegligible.FortheAFVfleet,wesummedthesizeofthelight-dutyNGVfleet[17],thePAVfleet[18],andthehydrogenFCVfleet[19].TodeterminethesizeoftheICEfleet,wesubtractedthesumoftheEVfleetandtheAFVfleetfromthesizeofthetotalLDVfleet.Toestablishtheageofthefleet,wereliedonsalesgrowthratesderivedfromMcKinsey’sreport“ARoadMaptotheFutureoftheAutoIndustry”[20].Fromthis,wedeterminedthevehiclesalesgrowthratesin10-yearperiodsdatingbackto1964,andusedtheseratestoback-castvehiclesalesfrom2014to1970.Thecombineddatagaveustheapproximatesize,composition,andageofthe2015fleet.2.2 Projected sales growth rates Afterassessingthesizeandmakeupofthe2015fleet,webeganbuildingtheprimarymechanismthattheToolreliesontomakeprojections—howdifferentsalesgrowthratesassumedbytheuserforLDVs,EVs,andAFVsaffectannualsalesandfleetmakeupthrough2050.UserassumptionsonthegrowthratesforLDVs,EVs,andAFVscanbeenteredfor5-yearperiodsfrom2016through2050.Theseassumptionsareusedtocalculatesaleswiththefollowingformula:Previousyear’ssales+(Previousyear’ssales*Salesgrowthrate)ForICEvehiclesaleswetookadifferentapproach:SinceICEvehiclesarethedominanttechnologyinthemarkettoday,aregenerallythemostaffordableLDVoption,andhavethelargestfuelingdistributionnetwork,weassumedthatanydemandforLDVsthatisnotmetbyEVorAFVsaleswouldbemetbyICEvehiclesales.Thus,ICEvehiclesalesarecalculatedasthedifferencebetweenoverallLDVdemandandcombinedEVandAFVsales.2.3 Limits on EV, AFV and ICE sales Asmentionedabove,ICEvehiclesalesaredeterminedbythegapbetweenLDVdemandandthesumofEVandAFVsales.Thismethodologynecessitatedthedevelopmentofboundariesforsalesforeach

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technologytype.NosinglevehicleplatformcouldoutsellLDVsintotal,norcouldthecombinationofthethreetypesbegreaterthanLDVdemand.Therefore,wedevelopedcolumnsinthe“Outputs”worksheettotakeintoaccounttheaboveassumptionsthatnewtechnologyvehicletypeswilloffsetsalesofICEvehicles,andthatanyvehicledemandnotmetbynewtechnologytypeswillbemetbyICEvehicles.Toaccountforthis,wecreatedseparatecolumnsintheworksheetthatshowvehiclesalesforeachtechnologyiftheywerenotboundbyLDVdemand,andcolumnsthatmadeuseof“IF”formulastopreventEVandAFVsalesfromexceedingLDVdemand.SincetheToolprioritizesEVsasthepreferredalternativetechnology,AFVsalesarefurtherboundbyEVsales—thatis,ifAFVsalesandEVsalescombinedexceedLDVdemand,AFVsalesareadjusteddownwardtoequalthedifferencebetweenLDVdemandandEVsales.SuchascenariocouldcrowdoutICEvehiclesales,aswellasAFVsales,ifEVsalesweresufficientlyhigh.Lastly,weconsideredascenarioinwhichaminimumnumberofICEandAFVvehiclescontinuetobesoldevenifEVsbecomethedominantpowertrain.WedidthistoaccountforareasoftheworldthatfacechallengesinbuildingoutEVcharginginfrastructure,aswellasotherconstraintsonelectricityproductionandtransmission,andalsotoconsidernicheapplicationsfortheothertechnologies.Forthisscenario,weassumedaminimumof5percentofLDVdemandwouldbeICEvehicles,andaminimumof4percent(thecurrentrateofAFVfleetpenetration)ofLDVdemandwouldbeAFVs.Toincorporatethis,weaddedmorecolumnsthatlimitEVsalesto91percentofLDVdemandandlimitEVandAFVsalescombinedtonomorethan95percentofLDVdemand—ensuringthatAFVsaleswillnotfallbelow4percentandICEvehiclesaleswillnotfallbelow5percentofLDVdemand.Uncheckingtheboxmarked“AllowMaxEVSales?”incellB11ofthe“AdjustableInputs”tabenablesthisscenario.2.4 Vehicle retirement Projectingfleetnumbersrequiresnotjustestimatingvehiclesalesbutalsounderstandinghowmanyvehiclesaretakenofftheroadeachyear.WeaccountedforthisbyusingthemethodologyestablishedintheVISIONmodeldevelopedandmaintainedbyArgonneNationalLaboratory.Weadoptedthreedifferentworksheetsforeachvehicletechnologytypetocalculatevehicleretirementrates.LiketheVISIONmodel,foreverygivenyearfrom1970through2050,thecompositionofthefleetbyageisdeterminedbasedonpreviousyear’ssalesandretirements,aswellasnewsales.Asaplaceholder,weincorporatedretirementratesbasedonvehicleageusedbytheVISIONmodel.TheauthorsrecognizethatsincetheVISIONmodelwasdevelopedfordomesticuse,thesenumbersreflectU.S.vehicleretirementstatisticsandmaynotbefullyrepresentativeofinternationalretirementrates.However,giventhelackofdatainthisarea,wedeemeditbesttousetheseestablishedrates,whileaimingtoupdateourToolasmoreinformationbecomesavailable.2.5 Fleet composition Thecompositionofthevehiclefleetforanygivenyearwascalculatedseparatelyinthe“ICE,”“EV,”and“AFV”tabs.Thiswasdonebyaddingupthenumberofsurvivingvehiclesfromeachofthepast23yearsandaddingnewvehiclesales.Thetotalforeachvehicletypeisthenlinkedtothe“Outputs”tabandsummedtogivetheuserthetotalsizeoftheLDVfleet.

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2.6 Graphs Onthe“GraphicalOutputs”tab,webuiltfourgraphsthatdisplayfleetcompositionandvehiclesalessharesbytechnologytypethrough2050.Thegraphsarelinkedtotheresultsontheseparate“Outputs”tabandautomaticallyupdatewhentheadjustableinputsarealtered. The“VehiclesSoldbyPowertrainthrough2050”graphdisplaysthenumberofvehicles,inmillions,soldforeachtechnology.“VehicleFleetthrough2050byPowertrain”showsthetotalLDVfleetsizeandcompositionbytechnologytypethroughtheyear2050.ThesetwographssummarizethemajorfindingsoftheTool:thenumberofvehiclesalesbytypeandthefleetcomposition.TohighlighttheresultsspecificallyforEVsandICEvehicles,weaddedthegraphstitled“EVsandICEvehiclessoldperyear”and“EVsandICEvehiclefleetsize.”ThesegraphsmoreclearlydisplayEVandICEvehiclesalesforeachyearandthefleetsizebypowertrainforeachyearthrough2050.Ourhopeisthatthesegraphsmakeiteasierfortheusertobothseehowmanyofeachvehicletypewillbeontheroadthrough2050,andwhen/ifEVsalesand/ortheEVfleetsurpassICEsalesandfleetsize.3. Scenarios WhileuserscaninputanyLDVgrowthratetheywant,forthepurposesofthispaperwemodeledthreescenariosforLDVgrowth(Low,Medium,High).ThesenumberswerederivedfromexistingliteraturediscussedinSection1.TheLowscenarioassumesagrowthrateof2percentthrough2040,thena1percentgrowthratethrough2050,toaccountformarketsaturation,endingwithanLDVfleetofjustunder2.3billion.TheMediumandHighscenariosfunctionsimilarly,butwithstartinggrowthratesof3and4percentrespectively,decreasingto2and3percentrespectivelyafter2040.TheMediumscenarioprojectsanLDVfleetsizeofjustunder3billionandtheHighscenarioprojectsanLDVfleetsizeofnearly3.9billion.ForeachoftheseLDVgrowthscenarios,wealsoranthreeEVgrowthscenariosbasedonestimatesfortheEVmarketdevelopedbytheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)[21],BloombergNewEnergyFinance(BNEF)[22],andGoldmanSachs(GS)[23].It’simportanttonotethatwhiletheBNEFandGSnumbersareforecasts,theIEAnumbersarebasedonaroadmapforEVadoptionthattheyurgegovernmentsandpeoplearoundtheworldtofollowinordertoachieve2050GHGtargets.TheIEAroadmapisbasedonseveralkeyassumptions:First,itassumesthatexistinggovernmentincentivesforEVadoptionwillstayinplacethroughatleast2020(beingphasedoutsometimebetween2020and2030),butgovernmentsupportforexpandingrecharginginfrastructurewillcontinueallthewaythrough2030.Second,itassumesrapidproliferationofdifferentEVmodelsafter2015,andasteepdecreaseinbatterytechnologycosttobelow$300perkWh,withfullrecyclingsystemscomingonlineinthe2020s,aswellasanewgenerationofbatteriesthat“significantlyoutperform”lithiumionbatteriesinthe2030s.Finally,itassumesfastchargingorbatteryswappingtechnologywillbe“well-established”duringthe2020s.Also,“OECDandothermajoreconomies”willhavenearlyfinishedbuildingouttheirentirecharginginfrastructureinthe2030sandwillbeginexpandingtotherestoftheworld.GoldmanSachs’“TheLowCarbonEconomy”reportpredictscompoundannualgrowthratesat37percentforEVsthrough2025.Thereportcites“regulatorypressure”andeffortscurrentlybeingundertakentodecreaseproductioncosts—“batterycostsareexpectedtofallbymorethan60percentoverthenextfiveyears”—asthemaindevelopmentssupportinghighgrowthinEVsales.

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BloombergNewEnergyFinanceforecastsEVsalestoriseto41millionannuallyby2040asaresultofcontinueddecreasesinbatteryproductioncosts,falling“wellbelow$120perkWhby2030.”Assumingalineargrowthrate,wecalculatedthattorepresenta19percentcompoundannualgrowthratefortheyears2016to2040.Werecognize,however,thatifthegrowthrateweretooccurinanon-linearfashionitwouldaltertheageandcompositionofthefleet.SinceboththeGoldmanSachsandtheBloombergforecastsdonotextendto2050,wemodeledthegrowthintheremainingyearsbasedontheIEAroadmap.Asnotedabove,theIEAgrowthratesexperienceaninitialramp-up,attributedtoadvancesinbatterytechnologyandregulations,amongotherthings,andthendeclineasthetechnologymaturesandmarketsaturationbeginstosetin.GoldmanSachsandBloombergcitesimilarreasonsforaramp-upinEVsales.Thus,toextendtheprojectionsto2050,wedeemeditappropriatetomodelaslowdowninthegrowthrateinthesamefashionasintheIEAreport.Todothis,wefirstdeterminedthepercentagedecreaseinthegrowthratefromeach10-yearperiodcomparedwiththeprevious10-yearperiod.Then,toextendtheGoldmanSachsprojections,weappliedthesamepercentagedecreaseinthegrowthratesforeach10-yearperiodafter2025,thelastyearforwhichtheirreporthasprojections.WeappliedthesamemethodologyforextendingtheBloombergprojectionsfrom2040to2050.TheEVsalesgrowthrateassumptionsforeachofthethreeestimatesarelistedbelow:

Table1:EVroadmapsandforecasts(rowsinblueindicatethesourcehadnoprojectionforthoseyears,andtocontinuetheprojectionsthrough2050,weusedtheIEArateofgrowthdepreciationforthatperiod).Forallnineofthesescenarios,anAFVgrowthrateof10percent(consistentwiththegrowthofAFVsalesfrom2014to2015[24][25][26][27])wasusedthrough2020,followedbyagrowthrateof5percentfortheremainderofthetimeasEVsbecomeubiquitous.Forthepurposesofdevelopingfindingsforthesescenarios,weonlyboundEVsalesbytotalLDVdemand,allowingICEvehicleandAFVsalestofalltozeroshouldEVsalesprovesufficientlyhigh.3.1 Scenario findings Table2showsthepercentageofEVsintheglobalvehiclefleetintheyear2050foreachoftheninescenariosweran.TheestimatedEVpenetrationfor2050isneverhigherthan50percent,norisitlowerthan15percent.Theaveragepenetrationpercentagein2050is28percent.

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Table3illustratesEVsales’sharepercentageintheyear2050.Thissharerangesfrom62percentintheIEALowgrowthscenarioto16percentintheGSHighgrowthscenario.Theaveragesalesshareintheninescenariosmodeledis36percentin2050.ThescenariothatshowsthestrongestEVadoption,at49%oftheoverallfleet,istheLowLDVgrowthscenariocombinedwithIEA’sEVroadmapprojections(Graph1).Inthisscenario,therearestill903millionICEvehiclesontheroadin2050,comprising40percentoftheLDVfleet,and23percentofnewsales.DespiteEVsalesoutstrippingICEsalesin2039,EVsontheroaddon’tsurpassICEvehiclesontheroaduntil2048.Thisisalsotheonlyscenarioinwhichthisoccurs,withnootherscenarioshowingEVsmakingupmoreofthefleetthanICEvehiclesby2050.TheICEvehiclefleetpeaksin2031,at1.3billion.

Graph1:GlobalLDVfleetcompositionintheLowgrowth,IEAroadmapEVprojectionsscenarioTheleast-friendlyscenarioforEVadoptionistheHighLDVgrowthscenario,withGS’marketprojections(Graph2).Inthisscenario,theICEvehiclefleethasstillnotpeakedby2050,andEVsonlycomprise16percentoftheLDVfleet,comparedtoICEvehicles’77percentshare.611millionvehiclesintheLDVfleetareEVs,while3billionareICEvehicles.

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Graph2:GlobalLDVfleetcompositionintheHighgrowth,GSEVprojectionsscenarioAsshowninTable4,onlytwooftheninescenariosprojectEVsalesexceedingICEvehiclessalesbefore2050.Inthosetwoscenarios—aswellasintheLowgrowth,GSprojectionscenarioandtheMediumgrowth,BNEFprojectionscenario—theICEfleetpeakssometimebetween2031and2047,withICEvehiclesnumberingsomewherebetween1.3and2billion.Intheotherfivescenarios,theICEvehiclefleetcontinuestogrowthroughtheyear2050.4. Discussion Althoughsomeresultsvariedgreatly,oneconstantacrossallthescenarioswasthatprojectedandtargetedEVgrowthalonewillnotsufficientlydecreasethenumberofICEvehiclesontheroadtolevelsthatallowtheworldtomeetclimate,airquality,energysecurity,andothertransportationgoals.WhileEVsmayholdmanyadvantagesoverICEvehicles,itisbecomingmoreapparentthatICEvehicleswillnotdisappearanytimesoon.Thisimpliesthatiftheilleffectsfromagrowingvehiclefleetaretobefurthermitigated,additionalstrategies(besidesincreasingEVgrowth)mustbeconsidered.Sucheffortscouldincludedevelopmentofotheralternativevehicletechnologies;improvingtheefficiencyofICEvehicles;oremployinglesspollutingfuels(likeethanolandmethanol)topowertheenginesalreadyontheroad—andthemanymoreexpectedtobethereinthefuture.4.1 Impact on emissions Acrosseveryscenario,withoutexception,thenumberofLDVsprojectedtobeontheroadin2050was

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morethandoublethecurrentnumber.Regardlessofthemakeupofthefleet,beitoverwhelminglyelectricorICE—or,morelikely,amixofthetwo—thisisproblematicforGHGsandairquality.4.1.1 GHGs Inrecentyears,anthropogenicgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionshavebeenagrowingcauseforconcern.EffortstoreduceGHGemissionsandmitigatethepotentialimpactshavereceivedincreasedattention,culminatingintherecentConferenceofPartiesgatheringinParis.EVsarethemosttalkedaboutoptionforachievingthesegoalsinthetransportationsector.However,evenifoptimisticEVadoptionratesarerealized,thefindingsinthisreportsuggestthatitstillmightnotbeenoughtomeaningfullydecreasethenumberofICEvehiclesontheroad.IfICEvehiclesremainadominantmodeofpersonaltransportthroughoutmostofthe21stcentury,astheywereduringthe20thcentury,anystrategytodecreasetransportation-relatedemissionsshouldnotoverlookpathwaystoachievesignificantemissionsreductionsfromICEvehicles.InconsideringGHGemissions,thefulllife-cycleemissionsoffuelproduction,distributionandmarketing,knownas“upstreamemissions,”aswellas“downstreamemissions”fromvehicleuse,mustbeconsidered.WhiledownstreamemissionsinICEvehiclesrepresentamajorityoflife-cycleemissions,upstreamemissionsincreasinglycontributealargershareasvehiclesbecomemoreefficient.ThistrendisespeciallynoticeableinEVs,whichproducenotailpipeGHGemissions.ArgonneLab’sGREETmodelshowsthatanEVpoweredbyelectricityderivedonlyfromcoalcanhavenearlythesameGHGimpactastheaveragegasolinepoweredU.S.vehicle,andcanhavehigheremissionsthananew,efficientICEvehicle[28].InIndiaandChina,twofast-growingvehiclemarketswhereapproximatelythree-fourthsofelectricityisgeneratedfromcoal[29],rapidEVadoptionmayactuallyincreaseoverallGHGemissions.Thiscomplexinteractionofboththelife-cyclecarbonintensityofthetransportationfuelandthemixofvehiclesinusehighlightshowcomplicateditwillbetoachieveGHGgoals.4.1.2 Air quality Anotherimportantconcernregardingairpollutionareharmfulemissionsfromtailpipesaswellasfuelproductionanditstransport.Thishasimportantramificationsfordevelopingcountriesandmarketswheremostvehiclegrowthislikelytooccur[30],andwhereurbanambientairpollutionisalreadyexceedingWorldHealthOrganization(WHO)limits.AccordingtothelatestreportfromWHO,“98percentofcitiesinlow-andmiddle-incomecountrieswithmorethan100,000inhabitantsdonotmeetWHOairqualityguidelines.”[31]Thisproblemwillonlybeexacerbatedbytheincreasingnumberofvehiclesontheroad.Thisshouldraiseredflagsforpolicymakers,aspoorairqualitycanleadtoincreasedriskofarangeofhealthproblems,including,butnotlimitedto,stroke,lungcancer,respiratorydisease,andheartdisease.TherealsoisagrowingbodyofevidencelinkingairpollutiontobraindiseaseslikeAlzheimer’sandParkinson’s[32].4.1.3 Potential mitigation strategies TomitigatetheriskofnegativeairqualityandGHGexternalitiesassociatedwithincreasedvehicleownershipworldwide,variousstrategiescouldbepursued.

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InadditiontoputtinginplacepoliciesthatsupportincreasedEVownership,equallyimportantisensuringthattheelectricitypoweringthosecarscomesfromcleanersources,suchasrenewablesandnaturalgas.Forfurtherdiscussiononthisissue,refertoSection4.2.2.AnothersignificantareaonwhichpolicymakersmightfocuswillbeexpandingliquidfueloptionsforICEvehiclestoincludehigh-octanefuelsandbiofuelsthatproducefeweremissions.Forfurtherdiscussiononthisissue,refertoSection4.4.1.Evengreaterbenefitscanpotentiallybeachievedbydevelopingenginesthatareoptimizedtorunonsuchfuels(seeSection4.4.2).Considerationshouldalsobegiventothemethodoffuelproductionandtheirdistributionnetworks.4.2 Impact on infrastructure AsnotedinSection4.1,thenumberofvehiclesislikelytoatleastdouble,andmayevenincreasethree-fold.Thislargeincreaseinvehicleswillhaveasubstantialimpactonresourcesandinfrastructure.Below,wehighlightedsomeoftheseissuesspecificallyrelatedtoEVs,butnotethatmanyotherissuesrelatedtovehiclegrowthingeneralshouldnotbeoverlooked.Theseincludetheabilitytomanufactureanddistributeasignificantlyhighernumberofvehicles(regardlessofpowertrain);theburdenonglobalresources;andtheabilityofcitiesandtownstoaccommodateagreaternumberofvehicles,amongstotherissues. 4.2.1 Battery production capacity AcommonthemethroughouttheliteratureonforecastinggrowthinEVsalesistheneedtodecreasebatteryproductioncosts.Indoingso,itappearsthateconomiesofscale,advancesinbatterytechnologyanddevelopmentinproductioninfrastructureareneeded.Advancesintheproductionanddistributionoftherawmaterialsforbatteryproductionarealsoimportant.GMandothersarenowsecuringbatteriesfortheirEVsatacostof$145perkWh[33],lessthanhalfthecostseeninthemarketrecently.TeslaMotorCompanytookthisefforttobuildbatteriesatalargerscalebybuildinga“gigafactory”inNevada[34].Thisproject,andperhapsotherstofollow,couldhavethepotentialtorealizeefficienciesinthemanufacturingofbatteriesthatwouldinturnhelplowertheperunitcostofEVproduction.ResearchinitiativessuchasthosespearheadedbytheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy[35]canalsoadvancebatterytechnology,andinturnreducebatterypricesthrougheitherbatteryefficiencyorreductionsinproductioncosts,orboth.Withglobalreservesoflithium,cobalt,nickel,manganeseandotherrawinputsofbatteryproductionbothlimitedandgeographicallydiverse,theproductionandtransportationsystemofthesematerialsmightbecometaxedasEVdemandincreases.Investmentsandadvancementsinsafeminingandtransportationpracticesforthesematerials,aswellasrecyclingwherepossible,couldhelppreventshortagesandpricespikes,ensuringcontinuedgrowthinbatteryproduction. 4.2.2 Charging infrastructure Fordevelopedcountriesthatalreadyhaveestablishedelectricalgridsandblossomingrenewableenergysectors,developingamorerobustEVcharginginfrastructureisalreadyachallengingprospect.IntheUnitedStates,98percentofchargingisdoneeitherathomeorattheworkplace,yetmuchofthecapitalinvestedinexpandingEVcharginginfrastructureisnotgoingtowardbuildingstationsinthosetwoplaces[36].Thisisespeciallyproblematicwhenyouconsiderthatmanymulti-familyresidencesdonot

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havetheappropriateelectricalcapacityandconduitsforEVcharging.ChangingthisdynamicinbothexistingdwellingsandinthebuildingcodesappliedtonewonescouldhelptoaccelerateEVadoptioninOECDcountries.However,evenindevelopedcountries,electricalgridcapacityandinfrastructuredevelopmentandrepairsmayneedtobeaddressedasgridsarefacedwithhigherloadsthatmaycomefromEVcharging.However,theproblemsfacedbyOECDcountriespalecomparedwiththechallengesinvolvedwithincreasingEVownershipindevelopingcountries,wheregettingenoughreliableelectricitytochargeamobilephone—muchlessavehicle—isacommonplaceissueforlargesegmentsofthepopulation[37].BeforeEVscanevenbeginpenetratingthosemarkets,astrongandreliableelectricalinfrastructuremustbedeveloped.Howthosecountriesgeneratetheelectricitythatflowsintotheirgridsisacriticalcomponent.Thelargestsourceofpowergenerationworldwideiscoal[38],aresourcethat—asdiscussedinsection4.1—hassignificantnegativeexternalitiesintermsofbothGHGsandairquality.LookingtoEVstosolveclimateandairqualityproblemscouldbecounter-intuitiveiftheelectricitypoweringthemdoesnotprovidesignificantlife-cycleemissionsbenefitoverICEvehicles.PolicymakersmusttakethisintoconsiderationaswellwhenplanningforhighEVpenetrationscenarios.4.3 Energy security Asismentionedabove,todaymorethan1billionICEvehiclesarepoweredbypetroleumderivedgasolineanddiesel.Likewise,totalglobalpetroleumconsumptionwasnearly94millionbarrelsperdayin2015[39],orabout34billionbarrelsfortheentireyear.Thislevelofpetroleumconsumptionalreadyhassignificantgeopoliticalandemissionsimplications.Thecontinuedproliferationofpetroleum-dependentICEvehicles,potentiallythreetimesashighasthecurrentamount,wouldservetoexacerbatethesituationandmayevenbeunattainable.However,strategiesexisttoreduceoreliminatetheneedforpetroleumconsumptioninICEvehicles.Chiefamongtheseisemployingnon-petroleumfuelsthatareeithercompatiblewithexistingvehicles,canbeusedinnewvehiclesthatmayormaynotbespecificallydesignedtorunonthesefuels,orboth.Thesecouldincludealcoholfuelsderivedfromamultitudeofsources,gasoline-likefuelsfrompyrolysisofbiomass,aswellasrenewablediesel,biodiesel,DMEandmore.4.4 Potential pathways to reduce the impact of ICE vehicles AsthereisstillasignificantprobabilitythatICEvehicleswillcontinuetodominatetheworld’sroadsinthecomingdecades,strategiesthataimtoreduceemissionsofGHGsandotherpollutantsfromlight-dutytransportshouldnotoverlookthissegmentofvehicles.4.4.1 Addressing the need for more liquid fuel options Giventhatthisstudyfindsthat,atbest,therewillstillbe900millionICEvehiclesontheroadin2050,and,atworst,3billion(2billionmorethanarein-usetoday),itisimperativetointroducecleanerliquidfueloptionsintothemarketplace.TherearemultipleavenuestowardcleanerliquidfuelsinICEvehicles,anditwillbeuptoindividualpolicymakerstodecidewhichpathisbestforthemandtheircountries.Butthereareafewoptionsthat

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couldfeasiblybeusedinfleetsaroundtheworld.Oneoftheseistheexpandeduseofhigh-octanefuelsthat,whenruninaproperlydesignedengine,cansignificantlyincreasefueleconomyanddecreaseairpollutionandGHGemissions[40].Sourcesofhigh-octanefuelsincludegasolinethathashaditsoctaneincreasedwithadditives,oralcoholfuelslikeethanolandmethanolthatcanbederivedfromplants,naturalgas,orwaste.Biofuelsareapromisingoption,andBrazilalreadyhassuccessfullyimplementedanethanolbiofuelsprogramthathasreducedtheirGHGemissions[41],whileitappearsthatregulationsonvehicleemissionswillleadtotheprogrambringinganoverallimprovementinairqualityaswell[42].Biofuelslikelywillbeattractivetomanypolicymakersbecausetheycanbemadefromawidevarietyoflocallyavailablesources.High-octanefuelsandlocallysourcedlow-carbonfuelscanbecomplementarytoeachotheraswell.Biomass,waste,naturalgasandothersourcesforlow-carbonfuelcancreatehigh-octaneethanolormethanoltobeusedeitherasafuel,anoctaneenhancer,orboth.4.4.2 Combining advanced ICE technology with fuel development Inrecentyears,engineefficiencyandtechnologyhavebeengreatlyimproved,leadingtodecreasedfuelconsumptionandotherbenefits.Thesetechnologiesincludemakinguseofadvancedenginetechniquessuchasdirectinjection,multiplesparkignition,turbocharging,andmore.Other,moreestablishedtechniquesforincreasingengineefficiency,suchasincreasingthecompressionratio,havealsoseengreaterdeploymentinrecentyears.Further,fuelpropertiesinherentlyeffecthowanenginereactsandhowefficientlyorinefficientlyitoperates.Fuelpropertiesthatcouldgreatlyaffectadvancedcombustionregimesincludeoctane,boilingpoint,solubility,andmore.Forexample,high-octanefuelsaremoreresistanttopre-ignitionandthuscouldallowforhigh-compression,turbochargingorothersuchtechniquesthatcouldincreaseefficiency.Astrategythatoptimizesenginedesignandcombustionregimeswithfuelsspecificallydesignedtoruninadvancedenginescouldhelptobettertakeadvantageofbothadvancedenginedesignsandinherentfuelpropertiestoachievegreaterefficienciesandreducedemissions4.5 Model Limitations WerecognizethattherearemanydifficultiesassociatedwithaToolthatmakesglobalprojections35yearsintothefuture,andbelowweaddresssomeofthosedeficiencies.Thisisaworkingmodel,andwewelcomefeedbackandsuggestionsonhowtoimprovetheTool. 4.5.1 Regional variation WhilethisToolattemptstoprovideapictureoftheworldatlarge,werecognizethatthemakeupoffleetsaroundtheworldvariessignificantlyfromregiontoregion.NGVsaremuchmoreprevalentinEastAsia,theMiddleEast,andSouthAmerica[43],whilePAVsarehighlyconcentratedinRussia,Turkey,andEasternEurope[44],andEVproliferationisthehighestintheU.S.,China,Japan,andScandinaviancountries[45].

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What’smore,certainareasoftheworldlikeWesternEuropearemuchmorereliantondieselICEvehiclesasopposedtogasolineICEvehicles,withdieselcarscomposingmorethan53percentofnewvehicleregistrationsinEuropein2014[46].Thus,whiletheToolcanbeespeciallyusefultopolicymakersthinkingonamacro,globalscale,considerationofregionalvariationshouldbetakenintoaccountwhenapplyingtheresultsoftheTooltospecificregionsoftheworld.4.5.2 Vehicle retirement DevelopingvehicleretirementratesprovedtobeoneofthebiggestchallengesindevelopingtheTool.WewereunabletoidentifyanypreexistingresearchonthelongevityofLDVsworldwide,despitewelldocumentedinformationonthiswithintheU.S.Giventheimportanceofunderstandingtheglobalfleetcompositionwhenconsideringglobalissues,wehopethatmoreeffortwillbeinvestedinthisarea.WewillupdateourToolwhenandifsuchdatabecomeavailableinordertoimproveprojections.4.5.3 AFV variability GivenourfocusonEVs,inthisfirstversionoftheToolwedecidedtocombineallotheralternativetechnologiesintoonecategory.Webelievethiscanstillallowforuserstoaccountforgrowthordeclineinnewandestablishedalternativetechnologies,suchasfuelcellsandnaturalgas-poweredvehicles.Butweacknowledgethatitrequirestheusertocombineassumptionsforthosetechnologiesanddoesnotreturnindividualresultsforeachtype.Thisisanareawehopetoimproveinafutureupdate.4.5.4 Uncertainties in the market Thereareotheremergingtechnologiesforlight-dutyvehicletransportbeyondadvancesandalternativesinpowertrainsthatcouldimpactfleetgrowth,compositionandage.Suchtechnologiesincludeautonomousvehiclesandride-sharingserviceslikeLyft,Uber,ZipCar,andothers.Whilewedidnotattempttomodelthesetechnologies’impactonthefleet,wenotethattheymightmeaningfullyaltertheresults—althoughthereisstillmuchdebateastowhattheirimpactwillbe.Questionssurroundingtheseuncertaintiesmayinclude:Willincreasedaccessanddecreasedcostsduetoride-sharingincreasethedemandforlight-dutytransportation,resultinginmorevehiclemilestraveled?Willthesharingofvehiclesbeenoughtoovercomeanyincreaseddemandforlight-dutytransportandkeepfleetgrowthlow?Orwilltheincreaseddemandacceleratefleetgrowth?Willacceleratedvehicledegradationduetosharingcausethefleettoturnovermorequickly,decreasingtheaverageage?Howwouldacceleratedfleetturnoveraffectadoptionofnewpowertraintechnologies?Whatpowertraintechnologiesarebettersuitedforvehicle-sharingandautonomousdriving?Willexistinginfrastructurerequireupdatingtosupportautonomousvehicles?Whileourtooldoesnotanswerthesequestions,webelieveithastheabilitytoestimatethefleetimpact,basedontheyet-to-be-determinedanswerstothesequestions.Lastly,thesetechnologiesmayalsonotaffectthefleetuniformlyacrosstheglobe.Forexample,developednationsmayadoptthesetechnologiesquickly,whiledevelopingnationsmaybeslowertoadopt.Moredenselypopulatedareasmaybebettersuitedforadoptingthesetechnologies,whileruralandpossiblysuburbanareaswillbelesslikely.4.6 Opportunities for further building out the model

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WhileuserscangeneratefindingsfromtheToolregardingthenumberofvehiclesontheroadandtheirmakeup,theTooldoesnotprojecttheimplicationsthosevehicleswillhaveonemissionsnordoesitfocusonspecificregions.ItisourhopethatfutureversionsoftheToolwillincorporatemoreofthoseaspects. 4.6.1 Adding emissions outputs Aspolicymakerscontinuetograpplewithstrategiestoreduceemissions,understandingtheimpactsoftransportationpolicy-relatedemissionsreductionswillbecrucial.Light-dutyvehiclesaccountforthemajorityoftransportation-relatedGHGemissionsintheU.S.[47],theE.U.[48],andaremajorsourcesofharmfulemissionsworldwide.KnowingtotalemissionslevelsfromLDVsandtheimpactsofemissions-reductionstrategieswillbehelpfulinassessingtheeffectivenessofpoliciesandtheirpotentialtoreachemissionsgoals.AsthisToolhelpstodetermineprojectionsfortheglobalLDVfleet,incorporatingadditionalprocessesanddatatoderivetheemissionsimpactofthefleetcouldbeabeneficialadditiontothisendeavor.Similartoothersucheffortstomodelemissionsimpactsfromtransport,thiscouldrequireaddingmodulestoaccountforvehiclemilestraveled,carbonintensity,andemissionsofvariousfuelsandfuelproductionpathways,aswellasgreaterdetailonthetypesofvehiclesandtheiruses,includingdifferenceswithinvehiclepowertrains.4.6.2 Localized versions of the model Duetothewidelyvaryingfleetmakeupsandvehiclepreferencesofregionsandcountriesaroundtheworld—asdiscussedinsection4.4.1—werealizethattheToolmightmisssomeofthenuancesthatwouldsurfaceiftheToolwerecustomizedfordifferentregions.Futureregion-specificiterationsofthemodelcouldtakethisintoaccountbychangingtheinitialglobalassumptionsonthefleetsizeandsalesforLDVs,EVs,NGVs,PAVs,andFCVs,andhistoricalsalesforeachtypeofvehicleusedbytheToolandreplacingthemwithregionalnumbers.Thefleetscrappageratecouldbealteredaswelltoreflectthescrappagerateoftheregioninquestion.5. Conclusion Whenlookingatthefutureoflight-dutyvehicletransport,muchfocusisgiventosalesofnewvehicles,whilethecurrentfleetofexistingvehiclesthatwillremainontheroadformanyyearsreceiveslessattention.Thefindingsofthisreporthighlightthatvehiclescontributetothefleetformanyyearsaftertheiroriginalsale.Whenconsideringtheeffectsoftransportationonclimatechange,urbanpollution,congestion,theeconomy,anddependenceonoil,industryandpolicymakerswouldbewellservedbyaccountingforallofthedifferenttypesofvehiclesontheroad.Today,therearealreadyoveronebillionICEvehiclesontheworld’sroads,andmanymorewillcontinuetoenterthefleet,evenifalternativetechnologiesexperienceunprecedentedgrowth.ThisdoesnotimplythatweshouldnotembraceEVsorprogramsandpoliciesthatsupporttheirproliferation,butratherthatweshouldconsidermultipleavenuestomitigatethenegativeexternalitiesthatwillaccompanyalargeroverallvehiclefleet.TheonecommonalityoftheninescenariosweexploredisthattheLDVfleetwillalmostcertainlybe

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significantlylargerthanitisrightnow.Further,muchoftheliteraturesuggeststhatalargeportionofthisgrowthwillcomeindevelopingmarketsthatlackcleansourcesofelectricityorreliableelectricalgrids,makingcleanEVadoptioninagrowingfleetevenmorechallenging.Supportingeffortstodevelopandexpandavailabilityofalternativeliquidfuelsandotherstrategies,intandemwithanEVgrowthstrategy,couldnotonlyhelpusreachourgoalssooner,butprovideuswithmoreconfidencethatthosegoalswillindeedbereached.SuchastrategycouldalsoensurethatwearenotoverlyburdenedwithunanticipatedexternalitiesrelatedtorapidEVadoption.Encouragingindustry,policymakersandconsumerstochoosebetweenmultiplestrategies(including,butnotlimitedto,biofuels,high-octanefuels,fuelcells,etc.,oracombinationofstrategies),couldensurearobust,competitivemarketplacethatdrivesinnovationandbringsusclosertoalesspollutedworld.

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