Why it is high time for the Graham

Sustainability Institute to include Population stabilization

on its (policy,research) agenda

Katta G. MurtyIOE Emeritus Professor

http:www-personal.umich.edu/ ~ murty/

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Did God create this vast Mother Earth & all these marvelous living creatures on it for humans to make other creatures extinct and fill the earth to the brim with humans????

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What is Sustainability

Sustainability = science of using natural resources so they last, remain available, for a long time.

Refers to life style using sustainable methods, making sure we will have: Water, materials, resources for present & future generations.

Requires responsible decision making, meeting needs of present, not compromising ability of future generations meeting their needs. To ensure desirable planet for all species now, & into future.

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The role of GHG (Green House Gas)emissions

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) concluded from 3 massive studies, that GHG emissions from human activities causing climate change conditions difficult for society to cope.

Sustainability requires meeting present needs without degrading natural environment. New threat to this from Human greenhouse effect, from forest clearing, GHG emissions from burning of fossil fuels.

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Role of population

Let I = environmental impact (in some units) caused by humans

P = population size A = Units of environmental impact by average human. Then I = P x A (1) A depends on lifestyle and technology used for that

lifestyle, can be reduced by improving technology in use. All research effort today focused only on reducing A,

totally ignoring P.

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Effects on ecosystems from presentpopulation

Making food for current 7 billion population heavy toll on earth's resources, uses 40% land surface, & moving many sea creatures closer to extinction.

Edward Osborne Wilson, Harvard entomologist Pulitzer Prize Winner (natural heir to Darwin) breaks ground for construction of a big castle in England, to pay tribute to species made extinct by humans.

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Millennium ecosystems assessment by International panel of 1000 biologists says: Of 24 ecosystems, only 4 stable, 15 in serious decline, 5 in precarious condition. Present human activities having significant negative impact on biodiversity of world ecosystems. Major cause habitat loss from human appropriation of land.

Indicates humans already living beyond carrying capacity of Mother Earth.

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Situation Analysis, Population projections

Already water shortages in many countries. Even Brazil, containing world's largest river, Amazon, has severe water shortages.

Entire Middle East survives on desalinated water, making which leads to enormous GHG emissions. Even USA has desalination plants, so does India.

Projections by UN Population division say: even with stringent actions by world govts., population will reach 9 billion by 2050, between 10 to 12 billion by 2100 (Science 10 Oct 14 PP 234-237) .

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Consequences

High correlation bet. population growth & environmental degradation. As population , to provide basic essentials for these people local ecosystems .

From eq. (1), we see that GHG emissions control not possible by making technology super efficient alone: because reductions from efficient technology not enough to offset increases necessary to serve growing population.

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Population growth global problem

US birth rate presently below replacement level, but US population from illegal immigration from south of border. Given human ingenuity, Very hard to stop illegal immigration.

So population growth global problem, has to be tackled globally.

Most countries look to US for leadership. So if US adopts population stabilization as our national policy, good chance other countries will follow. China already had this.

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Population stabilization in missionstatement

Name sustainability concerns: specification of actions by present generation, making sure to not diminish prospects of future generations enjoying comfortable lifestyle.

For all these reasons, with your name Graham Sustainability Institute, it is high time to include population stabilization in your mission, planning and research agenda.

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What can we do?

Need your help in contacting key people in US Govt. to get Population Stabilization as our National policy

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Great New Research Opportunities

So far, we have always had Economic growth, and consequent job growth. We became accustomed to economic growth, and always envy countries with high economic growth.

Part of the present economic growth comes from population growth.

As population stabilizes, we cannot take economic growth, job growth, for granted. A new research topic is the study of how world can adopt to the conditions under a stable population.

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