wnisr2018 prÉambule - atomtage€¦ · wnisr2018 mycleschneider consulting karlsruhe, 21....

WNISR2018

Mycle Schneider Consulting Karlsruhe, 21. September 2018

PRÉAMBULE

THE WORLD NUCLEARINDUSTRYSTATUS REPORT 2018

A Mycle Schneider Consulting ProjectParis, London, September 2018

Falls die Titelseite Fragen aufwerfen sollte...

WNISR2018


Mycle SchneiderInterna'onaler Energie- und Atompoli'k-Berater, Paris

Hauptautor und Herausgeber des WNISR

The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2018(WNISR2018)

www.WorldNuclearReport.org

Atomtage Karlsruhe, 21. September 2018

http://www.worldnuclearreport.org/

WNISR2018


ÜBERSICHT – BETRIEBSAUFNAHMEN UND ABSCHALTUNGEN

3

5

10

15

20

25

30

7/182015201020052000199519901985198019751970196519601954

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting

Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the Worldin Units, from 1954 to 1 July 2018

YearlyBalance

Reactor Startups

Reactor Shutdowns

Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2018

WNISR2018


5

10

15

20

25

30

7/182015201020052000199519901985198019751970196519601954

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0


Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the Worldin Units, from 1954 to 1 July 2018

Reactor Shutdowns

China Rest of the WorldReactor Startups

All Countries (No Chinese in Total)


ÜBERSICHT – BETRIEBSAUFNAHMEN UND ABSCHALTUNGEN

WNISR2018


EU – BETRIEBSAUFNAHMEN UND ABSCHALTUNGEN

5

15

7/182015201020052000199519901985198019751970196519601956

-10

-5

0

10© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting

Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the EU28in Units, from 1956 to 1 July 2018

YearlyBalance

Reactor Startups

Reactor Shutdowns


WNISR2018


⬇

Source: IAEA-PRIS, Screenshot, 2 September 2018

ÜBERSICHT – IRREFÜHRENDE OFFIZIELLE STATISTIKEN 1

WNISR2018


Source: IAEA-PRIS, Screenshot, 2 September 2018

⬇

ÜBERSICHT – IRREFÜHRENDE OFFIZIELLE STATISTIKEN 1

WNISR2018


JAPAN FOCUS

8

Sources: Various sources, compiled by WNISR, 2018

© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7/18201520102005200019951990198519801975197019651963

Electricity Generation in TWh Nuclear Capacity in GW

Rise and Fall of the Japanese Nuclear Program - 1963 to July 2018

Capacity

Generation

WNISR2018


ÜBERBLICK – LONG-TERM OUTAGE (LTO)

9

WNISR Definition von LTO

“A nuclear power reactor is considered in Long-Term Outage (LTO), if it has not generated any power in the entire previous calendar year and in the first semester of the current calendar year of the WNISR.”

-------------Reactors in LTO as of 1 July 2018

• 26 reactors in Japan, shut down between 2007 and 2013. Only 9 operating.• 2 reactors in India (Kakrapar-1 & Kakrapar-2)• 1 reactor in Argentina (Embalse)• 1 reactor in France (Paluel-2)• 1 reactor in China (CEFR)• 1 reactor in Taiwan (Chinshan-1)

WNISR2018



10

0

100

200

300

400

0

100

200

300

400

7/182015201020052000199519901985198019751970196519601954

GW


2002Maximum Numberof Reactors: 438

7/2018363 GWe

413 Reactors 1989

312 GWe420 Reactors

2006Maximum OperatingCapacity: 368 GWe

Nuclear Reactors and Net Operating Capacity in the World in Units and GWe, from 1954 to 1 July 2018

Reactors in Operation

Operating Capacity

Units GWe

0

100

200

300

400

0

100

200

300

400

7/182015201020052000199519901985198019751970196519601954

GW



7/2018363 GWe

413 Reactors 1989

312 GWe420 Reactors




Operating Capacity

Units GWe

0

100

200

300

400

0

100

200

300

400

7/182015201020052000199519901985198019751970196519601954

GW



7/2018363 GWe

413 Reactors 1989

312 GWe420 Reactors




Operating Capacity

Units GWe

ÜBERSICHT – REAKTOREN UND KAPAZITÄT IN BETRIEB

WNISR2018



0

50

100

150

50

100

150

7/1820152010200520001995199019851980197519701965196019560


Nuclear Reactors and Net Operating Capacity in the EU 28 in Units and GWe, from 1956 to 1 July 2018


Operating Capacity

Units GWe

7/2018116.7 GWe

125 Reactors

1989124.4 GWe

177 Reactors

2000Maximum Operating

Capacity: 136.8 GWe 1988

Maximum Number of Reactors: 177

EU – REAKTOREN UND KAPAZITÄT IN BETRIEB

WNISR2018


Sources: IAEA-PRIS, BP, 2018

12

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0

5

10

15

17201520102005200019951990 0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

17201520102005200019951990

© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting

Nuclear Electricity Production 1990-2017In the World...in TWh (net) and Share in Electricity Generation (gross)

...and in China and the Rest of the World in TWh (net)

1996Maximum : 17.5%

TWh

Sharein %

2017Production: 2,503 TWh

Share:10.3%

2006Maximum:

2,660 TWh

TWh

2015-2017Since 2014, without China's contribution,

world nuclear production has declined.In 2017, it increased by 1% globally, but

fell by 0.4% outside ChinaNuclear Share

Nuclear ElectricityProduction

ChinaRest ofthe World

ÜBERSICHT – STROMPRODUKTION UND ANTEIL ATOM

WNISR2018


2014

800 600 400 200 0

Armenia

Netherlands

Argentina

Slovenia

Iran

Pakistan

Mexico

Romania

Slovakia

Brazil

Bulgaria

South Africa

Hungary

Switzerland

Taiwan

Finland

Czech Rep.

Japan

India

Belgium

Spain

Sweden

UK

Germany

Ukraine

Canada

South Korea

Russia

China

France

USA

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Iran

Brazil

Netherlands

India

Japan

China

Argentina

Mexico

Pakistan

South Africa

Taiwan

Germany

Canada

Romania

Russia

UK

USA

Spain

South Korea

Armenia

Czech Rep.

Finland

Switzerland

Bulgaria

Slovenia

Sweden

Belgium

Hungary

Slovakia

Ukraine

France


2005

2002

2003

1986

2014

1996

2005

1996

1986

2009

1987

2013

1989

1997

1995

2015

2009

1994

1988

1989

1989

1990

2017

1986

2001

1998

201520102005

1994

2001

1999

2004

2001

1999

1998

2007

2017

2015

2011

2017

Nuclear Production in 2016/2017 and Historic Maximumin TWh and Share In Electricity Production

TWh Percentage

20162017Historic MaximumHistoric Maximum Year1998

Sources: IAEA-PRIS, BP, 2018

13

(Top 21)

2014

800 600 400 200 0

Armenia

Netherlands

Argentina

Slovenia

Iran

Pakistan

Mexico

Romania

Slovakia

Brazil

Bulgaria

South Africa

Hungary

Switzerland

Taiwan

Finland

Czech Rep.

Japan

India

Belgium

Spain

Sweden

UK

Germany

Ukraine

Canada

South Korea

Russia

China

France

USA

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Iran

Brazil

Netherlands

India

Japan

China

Argentina

Mexico

Pakistan

South Africa

Taiwan

Germany

Canada

Romania

Russia

UK

USA

Spain

South Korea

Armenia

Czech Rep.

Finland

Switzerland

Bulgaria

Slovenia

Sweden

Belgium

Hungary

Slovakia

Ukraine

France


2005

2002

2003

1986

2014

1996

2005

1996

1986

2009

1987

2013

1989

1997

1995

2015

2009

1994

1988

1989

1989

1990

2017

1986

2001

1998

201520102005

1994

2001

1999

2004

2001

1999

1998

2007

2017

2015

2011

2017

Nuclear Production in 2016/2017 and Historic Maximumin TWh and Share In Electricity Production

TWh Percentage

20162017Historic MaximumHistoric Maximum Year1998

ÜBERSICHT – STROMPRODUKTION UND ANTEIL ATOM

WNISR2018



14

ÜBERSICHT – REAKTOREN IM BAU

WNISR2018


Nuclear Reactors “Under Construc2on” (as of 1 July 2018)

Sources: Compiled by WNISR, 2018

ÜBERSICHT – REAKTOREN IM BAU

WNISR2018


Reactor Construc-on Times of 53 Units Started-up 2008–7/2018

Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, WNA, 2018

ÜBERSICHT – BAUZEITEN

WNISR2018



17

ÜBERSICHT – ANZAHL NEUBAUSTARTS

WNISR2018



18

ÜBERSICHT – ANZAHL NEUBAUSTARTS… UND CHINA

WNISR2018




as of 1 July 2018

0–10 Years11–20 Years21–30 Years31–40 Years41 Years and Over

Reactor Age

50 Number of Reactors by Age Class

Age of World Nuclear Fleet

413 reactorsMean Age:29.9 years

54

35

70

177

77

ÜBERSICHT – ALTERSSTRUKTUR WELT

WNISR2018


ÜBERSICHT – ALTERSSTRUKTUR EU28


as of 1 July 2018

0–10 Years11–20 Years21–30 Years31–40 Years41 Years and More

Reactor Age


Age of EU Nuclear Fleet


16

28

78

12


WNISR2018


STATUS REPORT DECOMMISSIONING

21

Sources: Various, compiled by WNISR 2018

Overview of Decommissioning Status in Six Selected Countries

WNISR2018


DECOMMISSIONING STATUS REPORT

22

Sources: WNISR and IAEA-PRIS, 2018

WNISR2018


Sources: Andy S7rling, Phil Johnstone, WNISR, with WNA, 2018

• Atomwaffenstaaten haben die ambi7oniertesten Neubauprojekte.

• Es gibt keine globale oder regionale Militärmacht, die nicht auch eine zivile AtomkraOgeschichte hat.

• Kein Land mit Atom-kraO-Moratorium oder Auss7egspoli7k ist Atomwaffe, oder Atom-U-Boote oder Plane solche zu erwerben.

ZIVIL-MILITÄRISCHE ABHÄNGIGKEITEN

WNISR2018


• Die Verbindungen zwischen zivilen und militärischen Aspekten von

Atomanlagen und SpaltmaterialprodukEon sind bestens bekannt (z.B.

von Plutonium, hoch angereichertem Uran, TriEum).

• Neu ist: die gegenseiEgen Abhängigkeiten, z.B. in der Atom-U-Boot-

Industrie, die als unabdingbar für einen Sitz im UNO Sicherheitsrat

angesehen wird.

• In den letzten zwei Jahren: mehrere Berichte, die auf die

Beibehaltung einer zivilen Atomindustrie drängen mit der Begründung

dies sei im Interesse der naEonalen Sicherheit (z.B. Ernest Moniz in

USA; Roll Royce in GB; Bericht für Nicolas Hulot in FR).

ZIVIL-MILITÄRISCHE ABHÄNGIGKEITEN ALS MOTIF?

WNISR2018


ERNEUERBARE UND ATOMKRAFT - INVESTITIONEN

25

Sources: FS-UNEP/BNEF 2018 and WNISR Original Research

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

20172016201520142013201220112010200920082007200620052004© W

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Global Investment Decisions in New Renewables and Nuclear Power in US$ billion, 2004-2017

Other RenewablesSolarWindNuclear

WNISR2018


INVESTITIONEN IN ERNEUERBARE – TOP TEN

26

Sources: FS-UNEP /BNEF, 2018, 2017, 2016

0

25

50

75

100

1252017

2016

2015

SwedenMexicoBrazil (*)UKAustraliaGermanyIndia (*)JapanUSA (*)China (*)© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting

Top 10 Countries for Renewable Energy Investment 2015-2017in US$ billion

(*) Updated data for 2015, 2016 and 2017 from FS-UNEP 2018 Report

WNISR2018


0

201720142012201020082006200420022000

0

2017201420122010200820062004200220001998

© W

NIS

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Myc

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chn

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ltin

g

© W

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ltin

g

Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Capacity Added Since 2000in GWe net

Wind

Solar Nuclear

Annual ProductionCompared to 1997

in TWh/year

167

-23

3

226

2535

221

285

334

399

497

450

252

66

22

100

178

137

302

399

Wind, Solar and Nuclear Developments: Installed Capacity and Electricity Production in the World

20

100

5 33

259327

442366

180294

289

397

241 239

512

51121

948

820

634

264

1 111

Nuclear(excl. LTO)

27

Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP Sta;s;cal Review 2018

ERNEUERBARE UND ATOMKRAFT – KAPAZITÄT/PRODUKTION

WNISR2018


201720142012201020082006200420022000 2017201420122010200820062004200220001998

© W

NIS

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Myc

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chn

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g

© W

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chn

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ltin

g

Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Capacityin GWe

Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Electricity Productionin TWh/year

363 374

327

370 361 385353

3057

221

417

515

468

103

22

66

101178

227

400

Wind, Solar and Nuclear Installed Capacity and Electricity Production in the World

6 21

260101

328443

2 6302 553

2 661

2 5052 346

2 4442 503

133

276342

524646

959832

63

1 123

Nuclear (excl. LTO)

350

2 264

28

Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP Sta:s:cal Review 2018


WNISR2018


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000Non-hydro renewablesHydroCoal

GasOilNuclear

201720152013201120092007

>3 000

>1 5001 470

980

-110 -200


Power Generation in the WorldAnnual Production Compared to 2007 in added TWh by Source

Sources: BP Sta7s7cal Review 2018

FOSSILE, ERNEUERBARE UND ATOMKRAFT – PRODUKTION

WNISR2018


201720142012201020082006200420022000 201720142012201020082006200420022000

© W

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© W

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Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Capacityin GWe

Wind

Solar Nuclear

Production in TWh/year

2 8713 19

27

35

18

46

97

132

164

149

77

7

28

44

78

131

Installed Wind, Solar and Nuclear Capacity and Production in China 2000-2017

4 16

44

24

62

108124

16

6650

161

198

233

28

70

96

141156

237

186

4

286



WNISR2018


201720142012201020082006200420022000 201720142012201020082006200420022000

© W

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© W

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Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Capacityin GWe Wind

Solar Nuclear

Production in TWh/year

3

2

4 5

6

2

6

10

13

20

25

33

29

16

1 35

9

19

Installed Wind, Solar and Nuclear Capacity and Production in India 2000-2017

0.8 1.4

2.8 6.64.9

11.6

21.520

29

14

18

15

30

35

3

9

1419

24

43

27

33

53

31



WNISR2018


0

201720142012201020082006200420022000

0

2017201420122010200820062004200220001998

© W

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chn

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© W

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Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Capacity Added Since 2000in GWe net

Wind

Solar

Nuclear


in TWh/year

-16-6

94

-17

-19

21

51

93

127

155

140

35

22

66

8071

100106

Wind, Solar and Nuclear Developments: Installed Capacity and Electricity Production in the EU

37

126

9775

245231

296

355

-47

45

-42

79

-32

60

-91

71

423

1089786

46

120

Nuclear(excl. LTO)

Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP Statistical Review 2018


WNISR2018


SCHLUSSFOLGERUNGEN

33

• Sehr bescheidener ProdukBonsansBeg von Atomstrom, im Wesentlichen wegen Chinas Programm.

• Weiterhin AbsBeg der Rolle von AtomkraM im Strommix.

• Kostenvorteil der Erneuerbaren wächst weiter.

• Neun von 31 Atomenergie nutzenden Länder produzieren mehr Strom mit Erneuerbaren als mit AtomkraM.

• NeSoansBeg der installierten AKW-Kapazität ist vernachlässigbar im Rahmen des gesamten Marktes (1 GW von 257 GW in 2017).

• Schrumpfen der Neubaustarts: 15 in 2010, 5 in 2017, 3 en 2018; kein kommerzieller Neubaubeginn in China seit Dezember 2016.

• Demontage und Abriss in den Anfängen. Nur 10 von 173 abgeschalteten Reaktoren bis „green field“ Status zurückgebaut. • MoBvaBonen für Weiterbetrieb oder Neubau unklar. Zivil-militärische Abhängigkeiten als eine der treibenden KräMe möglich.

WNISR2018


AIEA : “RISQUES D’UN DÉCLIN”

New IAEA Energy Projections See Possible Shrinking Role for Nuclear Power

Nuclear power’s electricity generating capacity risks shrinking in the coming decades as ageing reactors are retired and the industrystruggles with reduced competitiveness, according to a new IAEA report.

AIEA,10 septembre2018

WNISR2018


Anhänge

35

WNISR2018



1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1954 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 7/180

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Duration in YearsAverage Annual ConstructionTimes in the World from 1954 to 1 July 2018by Grid Connection Date

Number of Reactors

1 5 10 20 30

GLOBAL OVERVIEW – CONSTRUCTION TIMES


36

WNISR2018



19801970 19851975 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 17

USA - 42

Total - 94

Ukraine - 6

Taïwan - 2

Spain - 4Sweden - 1

Russia - 12

Romania - 3

Poland - 2

Philippines - 1N. Korea - 1

Lithuania - 1

Japan - 1

Italy - 3

Iran - 1

Germany - 6

Czech Rep. - 2

Cuba - 2

Bulgaria - 2

Brazil - 1

Austria - 1

2 2 2 5 11 5 13 3 9 3 12 3 2 9 1 1 1 1 2 23 1

in Units by Cancellation Year and CountryAbandoned Reactor Constructions from 1970 to 1 July 2018

North America Latin America Europe Asia and Middle East

1

CONSTRUCTION STARTS AND CANCELLATIONS

37

Sources: WNISR, with IAEA, and various sources, 2018

WNISR2018


FRANCE FOCUS

38

Sources: EDF, 2018

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

5

10

15

20

25Units GW

25/0618/0611/0604/0628/0521/0514/0507/0530/0423/0416/0409/0402/0426/0319/0312/0305/0326/0219/0212/0205/0229/0122/0115/0108/0101/01


Unavailability of French Nuclear Reactors in 2018Maximum number of reactors offline for each week during the first half-yearin Units and Capacity

Reactors offline

Capacity

French Nuclear Fleet: 58 Reactors / 63.1 GW

22.6 GW20 Units

22.4 GW20 Units

19.7 GW18 Units

WNISR2018




as of 1 July 2018


Reactor Age


Age of Shutdown Nuclear Reactors in the World


26

31

56

40

20

GLOBAL OVERVIEW – CLOSURE AGE

WNISR2018


AGE DISTRIBUTION OF REACTOR FLEETS: U.S., France

40

Sources: WNISR with IAEA-PRIS, 2018


as of 1 July 2018

11–20 Years21–30 Years31–40 Years41 Years and Over

Reactor Age


Age of French Nuclear Fleet

2

14

41

1

58 reactors(1 in LTO)Mean Age:33.4 years

1 in LTO


as of 1 July 2018


Reactor Age


Age of French Nuclear Fleet

2

14

41

1


1 in LTO


as of 1 July 2018


Reactor Age


Age of US Nuclear Fleet


1

12

42

44

WNISR2018


AGE DISTRIBUTION OF REACTOR FLEETS: EU, U.K.

41



as of 1 July 2018


Reactor Age




16

28

78

12


as of 1 July 2018


Reactor Age




16

28

78

12© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting

as of 1 July 2018

21–30 Years31–40 Years41 Years and Over

Reactor Age


Age of UK Nuclear Fleet


5

6

4


as of 1 July 2018


Reactor Age




16

28

78

12

WNISR2018


AGE DISTRIBUTION OF REACTOR FLEETS: Japan, China

42



as of 1 July 2018

0–10 Years11–20 Years21–30 Years

Reactor Age


Age of Chinese Fleet


31

8

3

1 in LTO


as of 1 July 2018


Reactor Age


Age of Japanese Nuclear Fleet

1

4

17

10

3

9 in operation

35 reactors(26 in LTO)Mean Age:

28 years

WNISR2018


AGE DISTRIBUTION OF REACTOR FLEETS: Russia

43



as of 1 July 2018


Reactor Age


Age of Russian Nuclear Fleet


7

2

4

14

10

WNISR2018


FRANCE — RÉPARTITION DES ÂGES


WNISR2018


PAYS “NEWCOMER” POTENTIELS

Sour

ces:

Var

ious

, com

pile

d by

WN

ISR,

201

8

WNISR2018


US FOCUS – 18 “EARLY CLOSURES” 2009-2025

46

Sour

ces:

Var

ious

sour

ces c

ompi

led

by W

NIS

R

WNISR2018


© W

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Wind

PV

NaturalGas

OtherRenewables

Coal

FuelOil

Nuclear

15.6

6.0

2.6 2.3 1.7

-1.8 -0.6

-2.3

-7.5

-2.2

Startup and Shutdown of Electricity Generating Capacity in the EU in 2017 by Energy Source in GWe

NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT

47

Sources: WindEurope, WNISR, 2018

WNISR2018


FOCUS ALLEMAGNE

48

0

30

60

90

120


NuclearReduction

-64

Fossil FuelReduction

-28

RenewablesIncrease

113

Main Evolution of the German Power System between 2010 and 2017in TWh

Nuclear and Fossil FuelGeneration Reductions

as well as Export Increase...

... are Covered by Consumption Decrease and

Renewable Production Increase

Net ExportIncrease

37

ConsumptionDecrease

-16

Sources WNISR, based on AGEB 2018

WNISR2018


0

50

100

150

200

250

300Asia (excl. China and India)IndiaChina

Middle East and AfricaEurope

Americas (exclu. US and Brazil)Brazil

US

20172016201520142013201220112010200920082007200620052004

NuclearRenewable

© W

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Regional Breakdown of Nuclear and Renewable Energy Investments in US$ Billion, 2004-2017


49

Sources: FS-UNEP,BNEF 2018 and WNISR Original Research

WNISR2018



50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

WindUtility Scale Solar (²)Gas - Combined CycleCoalNuclear

2017 11.0

2016 10.0

2015 9.0

2014 8.0

2013 7.0

2012 6.0

2011 5.0

2010 4.0

2009 3.0


Selected Historical Mean Costs by Technology LCOE values in US$/MWh (¹)

20%

-8%

-27%-86%-67%

Lazard LCOE VersionsSources: Lazard Es)mates, 2017

WNISR2018


Sources: DOE-EIA, 2018

201720142012201020082006200420022000 201720142012201020082006200420022000

© W

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Wind

Solar

Nuclear


in net added TWh

Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Annual Production2000-2017in net TWh

26

10

3543

53

15

51

12

68

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