workshop on “smes financing in the asia-pacific region: crisis and countermeasures”

52
PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION COUNCIL Session 1: SMEs Financing in the Asia- Pacific Region amid the Financial Crisis: Status, Challenges and Trends 第第 第第第第第第第第第第第第第第第第 一:: 第第 第第第第第 Dr Chris Hall CEO, Comnami, PECC SME Network Leader [email protected] Workshop on “SMEs Financing in the Asia-Pacific Region: Crisis and Countermeasures” (June 8-12, 2009, Shanghai National Accounting Institute)

Upload: liseli

Post on 06-Jan-2016

64 views

Category:

Documents


4 download

DESCRIPTION

Workshop on “SMEs Financing in the Asia-Pacific Region: Crisis and Countermeasures” (June 8-12, 2009, Shanghai National Accounting Institute). Session 1: SMEs Financing in the Asia-Pacific Region amid the Financial Crisis: Status, Challenges and Trends 第一节:金融危机下亚太地区中小企业融资: 现状、挑战和趋势 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION COUNCIL

Session 1: SMEs Financing in the Asia-Pacific Region amid the Financial Crisis: Status,

Challenges and Trends

第一节:金融危机下亚太地区中小企业融资:现状、挑战和趋势

Dr Chris Hall CEO, Comnami, PECC SME Network Leader

[email protected]

Workshop on “SMEs Financing in the Asia-Pacific Region: Crisis and Countermeasures”

(June 8-12, 2009, Shanghai National Accounting Institute)

1. Background Framework Profile of SMEs

中小企业背景介绍

2. The context of the 2008 Financial Tsunami

2008 金融海啸情况介绍

3. Financing trends for SMEs in APEC

亚太地区中小企业的融资趋势

4. The impact of the 2008 Financial Tsunami on SME finance

2008 金融海啸对中小企业融资的影响

5. What have governments done to address the challenges?

政府的应对措施

6. A vision of what could be done better to address the challenges

如何更好地应对挑战?

7. Conclusion

结论

SMEs are important: they contribute about half the GDP, half the employment, and most of the job growth in APEC 中小企业作用重大:为 APEC 贡献了大约一半的 GDP 、一半的就业和大多数的新增就业岗位。

There is a major economic and financial crisis about every 6 or 7 years. The 2008 crisis is unusual in that it is affecting so many economies at the same time. The big impact on SMEs is probably not likely to be felt until 2009/2010每隔六七年就会发生一次比较严重的经济和金融危机。 2008 年的危机的不寻常之处在于,它同时对众多经济体产生影响。其对中小企业的巨大影响很可能直到 2009/2010 年才感受得到。

SMEs have proved resilient in adapting to previous crises经证明,中小企业在适应危机方面颇具韧性。

Banks are the largest source of finance to SMEs, and supply over half of SME finance 银行是中小企业最大的资金来源,为中小企业提供一半以上的融资。

There is a long term structural problem that real growth in bank finance has been low or negative. SMEs have been finding it harder to get bank finance for the last decade or so. 长期存在一个结构性问题,即银行融资实际上一直是低增长或者负增长。过去十年来,中小企业获得银行融资的难度越来越大了。

In the short term (12 - 18 months) the government and bank response is not likely to have much direct effect on SME Finance. 短期来看( 12-18 个月),政府和银行不可能给中小企业融资带来很多直接影响。

There is a now window of opportunity to improve the management of risk by banks in lending to SMEs, and improve management of SMEs by getting banks, ICT suppliers, telcos and governments to work cooperatively. 通过银行、信息技术提供商、电信运营商和政府的通力合作,现在有机会提高银行给中小企业贷款的风险管理水平,并且改进中小企业的自身管理水平。

1.

Background Framework Profile of SMEs

中小企业背景介绍

What is an SME?

中小企业的定义

non employing

~ 55%

1 to 4 employees

~ 30%

5 to 19 ~ 11%

20 to 500 ~2% to 3%

99.9% of all businesses are SMEs, employing less than 500 people, 98% employ less than 100, 80% employ less than 5 people

99.9% 的企业都是中小企业,员工人数在 500 人以下。98% 的企业员工人数不到 100 , 80% 的企业员工不到 5 人。

There is no consistent definition of SMEs across APEC, but the great bulk of SMEs employ less than 100, and most less than 20 people.

在整个亚太地区尚不存在对中小企业一致的定义,但是大多数中小企业雇佣的员工数在 100 以下,绝大多数在 20 人以下。

large firms make up less than 0.1% of businesses大公司占所有企业数的 0.1% 不到

How many SMEs are there in APEC?

APEC 的中小企业数量

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Australia

Brunei

Canada

Chile

China

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

Malaysia

Mexico

New Zealand

Peru

Philippines

Russia

Singapore

Chinese Taipei

Thailand

USA

Vietnam

There are now about 77 million SMEs in APEC, about 30 million of them in China, ...

but there should be about 100 million in APEC, about 60 million in China

亚太地区目前大约有7700 万中小企业,其中约 3000 万在中国…但是按常理看,亚太地区应该有约 1亿的中小企业,中国应该有 6000 万。

There are big differences across economies in propensity to start an SME

在创办中小企业的倾向性上各经济体情况迥异

0.005.00

10.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.0050.00

new

nascent

GEM 2006 data

% of adult population

占成年人口的百分比

People start SMEs up (entrepreneurship) as a result of: 创办中小企业是出于:

a) necessity (no job) 1 )必须创办(没有工作)

b) opportunity (for improved income and wealth) 2 )出现机会(来提高收入水平)

necessity driven start ups will become more important in the next years

未来几年由需求驱动的初创企业会越来越重要

Source GEM 2008 Executive Report

For every 1 million people, there are about 50,000 SMEs. 每 100 万人口之中,就有 5 万个中小企业。

GEM suggests about 5% (50,000) people try to start a new business each year, 每年约有 5% 的人( 5 万)尝试创办新企业,

and of that 50,000, about 45,000 will not succeed...其中,约 4.5 万人不会成功…

..but 5,000 will succeed. 但是 5000 人会成功

If the successful start up rate is 10% of the firm population (50,000 firms for 1 million people, or 1 SME for every 20 people), then 5,000 will start each year, of which about 1,000 (20 to 25%) are growth oriented and will need equity funds.

如果初创企业的成功率是 10% ,那么每年将有 5000 个企业成功诞生,其中 1000 个是成长型的,将需要权益资本的支持。

If about 10% (5,000) exit each year, then the SME population is

steady and it renews itself about every 10 years. 如果每年约有 10% 的企业退出,中小企业的数量则会趋于稳定,并且每隔 10 年更新一次。

not all who try to start-up, actually succeed

不是所有的创业者都会成功

What do these SMEs contribute?

中小企业的贡献

Micro less than 5 employees 微型企业: 5 人以下

large firms make up less than 0.1% of businesses, contribute between 40% and 60% of employment, and about 50% of GDP.

大公司占总公司数量的 0.1% 不到,提供 40%-60% 的就业和约 50% 的 GDP 。

Large firms usually destroy jobs, i.e. are net job destroyers

大公司通常会削减就业岗位,可谓净就业杀手。SMEs contribute about half of GDP, and about half of all jobs. About 20% of jobs are from medium, 20% from small and 20% from micro

中小企业创造大约一半的 GDP 和一半的就业岗位。约 20% 的工作来自中型企业, 20% 来自小企业, 20% 来自微型企业。

But SMEs, especially new micro and small enterprises create most of the job growth.

但是,绝大多数的新增就业岗位是由中小企业,尤其是微型企业和小企业提供的。

Small 5 to 19 employees小企业: 5-19 人

Medium 19 to 500 or so中型企业: 19-500 人

Large firms employ about half the workforce,but add relatively few net jobs

Small firms churn, add and destroy a lot of jobs, - net addition varies with cycle and economy

Fast growing firms contribute around 70% of net job growth

about 1% of firms

about 5% of firms

over 90% of firms

about 20% seek growth

How does the Entrepreneurial Engine work?

创业引擎的工作原理

大公司雇佣大约一半的劳动力,但是很少添加新工作岗位

大约 70% 的净工作增长是由快速成长的公司提供的

小公司产生同时也摧毁很多工作岗位,工作岗位的净增长随企业的生命周期和宏观经济状况而变

Large firms employ about half the workforce,but add relatively few net jobs

Small firms churn, add and destroy a lot of jobs, - net addition varies with cycle and economy

Fast growing firms contribute around 70% of net job growth

about 1% of firms

about 5% of firms

over 90% of firms

about 20% seek growth

How does the Entrepreneurial Engine work and what finance is needed?

创业引擎的工作原理及融资需求

Fast growth firms need growth finance, which is usually equity (such as VC)

快速成长的公司需要成长资金,通常是权益融资(如风投资金)The vast bulk of SMEs need working capital, mostly debt funding. A larger proportion than usual tend to exit if finance is not available

大多数中小企业需要营运资金,一般以债务融资为主。如果没有融资的话,较大比例的公司会退出市场。

The challenges in a downturn or crisis are that: 经济低迷期或危机下的挑战有:

more people have to start an SME out of necessity, not because of choice or opportunity; 更多的人得开始创业,是出于生存的原因,而非主动的选择或者某种机遇;

these necessity entrepreneurs are less likely to have appropriate management skills for an SME, or the appropriate attitude, to help them succeed;这些被迫创业的人很可能不具备适当的管理技能,或者正确的态度来助其成功;

It is more difficult for them to get finance, especially from risk averse lenders (eg banks) who might actually have the funds, but are not as effective at mobilising them; 他们将更难获得融资,尤其是从厌恶风险的贷款人(如银行)那,他们可能有资金,但是没有动员资金的效力

even though there are entrepreneurial opportunities arising from restructuring and bankruptcy/exits, a generation of growth oriented firms may not be able to avail of these opportunities because of lack of finance and smart money;...and即便企业的重组和破产会产生创业机会,一批成长型企业由于缺乏融资可能无法把握这些机遇。

this leads to a slower economic and social recovery than is potentially possible, or it shifts the recovery to locations with more conducive entrepreneurial environments (eg the Japan lost decade becomes China's decade of entrepreneurial growth).这将导致经济和社会复苏变缓,或者使复苏转移至对创业有利的环境中。

what are the entrepreneurial challenges of the Financial Tsunami?

金融海啸下的创业挑战

2.

The Context of the 2008 Financial Tsunami Crisis

2008 金融海啸情况介绍

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

CHN

HKG

IDN

JPN

USA

Previous economic crises and SME impact

过去的经济危机对中小企业的影响

The 1990 Japan crisis

bubble economy collapsed in Japan, rising Yen. Japanese SMEs adapt by moving to China and Asia, often financed by Large Japanese firms 泡沫破灭,日元升值。日本中小企业移至中国和其它亚洲地区,一般由大型日本公司提供资金支持

The 1997 Asian crisis

Construction bubble in Thailand, supported by cheap US bank loans collapses as Hedge Funds force devaluation of Baht, and contagion spreads. 在美国廉价银行贷款崩溃的助推下,泰国的房地产泡沫破灭,对冲基金迫使泰铢贬值,危机蔓延至其它亚洲国家

The 2001 Tech Wreck

The .com bubble collapses in USA, VC money moves to PRC. Economy slowed by 911美国的网络泡沫破灭,风投资金转而投向中国。 911 事件使经济放缓

2003 SARS

Main impact on HKG and SIN主要对香港和新加坡有影响

2008 financial Tsunami

?

GDP nominal growth (World Bank Data)

Previous economic crisis: 96/7 Asian Crisis in Korea and Chinese Taipei

以往的经济危机: 96/7 年韩国和中国台北的亚洲金融危机

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

K

T

GDP (1995 = 100) Korea and Chinese Taipei

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

K

T

Volume of bank funds to SMEs, indexed, Korea 1995, Chinese Taipei 1993 = 100

银行给中小企业的贷款额

Previous economic crisis: 96/7 Asian Crisis in Korea and Chinese Taipei

以往的经济危机: 96/7 年韩国和中国台北的亚洲金融危机

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

K

T

KM

TM

Population of SMEs (index 1991 =100) in total and manufacturing

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

KSME

TSME

KMSME

TMSME

Employment in SMEs (index 1992 =100) in total and manufacturing

Lessons for the 2008 Financial Crisis: 对 2008 金融危机的经验教训:

Both Korea and Chinese Taipei had developed good SME policy frameworks prior to the crisis

韩国和中国台北在危机发生前均已具备完善的中小企业政策框架

The main impact on SMEs is lagged by about 12 to 18 months; the worst is yet to come in 2010

对中小企业的主要影响将延后 12-18 个月发生;最糟糕的情形将在 2010 年出现

Entrepreneurs and SMEs are resilient. Restructuring opportunities as Chaebol restructured allowed Korean SMEs to bounce back and catch up to Taipei within 2 years.

企业家和中小企业都很有活力。重组机会使得韩国的中小企业反弹回来,并在两年内赶上了台北。

The ability to develop an internationally competitive industrial structure which is able to adapt quickly and take advantage of opportunities is very important in the face of a turbulent global environment.

在动荡的全球环境下,培育能够迅速适应环境和把握机遇并具有国际竞争力的产业结构,非常重要。 From: Hall, C. and Harvie, C, A comparison of the performance

of SMEs in Korea and Taiwan; policy implications for turbulent times, (2003) Journal of Korean Economy, Vol 4 (2) 225 - 260.

Previous economic crisis: 96/7 Asian Crisis in Korea and Chinese Taipei

以往的经济危机: 96/7 年韩国和中国台北的亚洲金融危机

3.

Financing trends for SMEs in APEC

亚太地区中小企业的融资趋势

Where do SMEs get finance to be able to grow and survive?

中小企业得以生存和成长的融资渠道

Debt债权 Equity股权

main sources 主要来源

stag

es o

f d

evel

op

men

t发展阶段

seed micro

start up

operations(working cap)

growth

FFF, owner funds, microfinance

FFF, Banks owner, FFF

banks, suppliers angel

banks VC, angel, IPO

finance stock

finance flows

What do we know of the pattern of finance to SMEs in APEC?

亚太地区中小企业的融资模式

Data sources are limited, only a few economies have regular updated reliable information on SME finance needs and supply, and all of these are 2010 economies 数据来源有限,仅少数几个经济体对中小企业的融资需求和供给信息定期更新。

In most cases the data are based on size of loan, not size of firm.大多数情况下,数据是根据贷款规模,而不是公司规模得出的。

In fact most lending to SMEs is from Banks. VC is a tiny proportion. 事实上,对中小企业的贷款大部分来自银行。风投仅占非常小的比例。

Equity and trade finance provide most of the rest. 余下部分主要为权益融资和贸易融资。

Early stage Venture capital about $ 5 b

Bank lending to SMEs in developed economies about $700 b, (excluding Japan which adds about $2500 b in debt to SMEs.)

Bank lending to SMEs in developing economies about $200 b

Banks are the biggest source of funds to SMEs, and potentially the biggest source of information, advice and mentoring

Banks supply about 50% of finance for established SMEs

Banks remain the single biggest provider of finance to established SMEs, supplying over 50% of funds in economies for which data are available

note: these are approximate figures based on modelling银行是中小企业最大的资金来源,也是潜在的最大的信息、建议和指导来源

备注:这些数据是在建模基础上得出的近似数据

Benchmark modelling of SME finance needs in APEC

亚太地区中小企业融资需求的基准模型Based on there being about 75million SMEs in APEC, and that finance is able to flow freely, so is available to all SMEs in APEC前提:亚太地区大约有 7500 万个中小企业,资金可以自由流动,因此可用于地区内的所有中小企业。

10% SMEs are micro $100 each 50% debt 50% equity

10% start up $10,000 each 30% debt 70% equity

60% operating $50,0000 each 50% debt 50% equity

20% growth $100,000 each 30% debt 70% equity

.01% VC $1,000,000 each 30% debt 70% equity

.0001% IPO $10,000,000 each 10% debt 90% equity

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

micro start up operating growth vc ipo

the distribution of SMEs by stage

is likely to be

中小企业在不同的发展阶段的分布

Benchmark pattern of SME finance needs in APEC

亚太地区中小企业融资需求的基准模式

-

500,000,000,000

1,000,000,000,000

1,500,000,000,000

2,000,000,000,000

2,500,000,000,000

micro start up operating growth vc ipo

equity

debt

suggests that there is a demand for a stock of about $4.5 trillion for SME finance in APEC in 2010, about 60% ($ 2.7 t) equity, and 40% ($1.8 t) debt.模式表明, 2010 年, APEC 中小企业的融资需求在 4..5 万亿美元左右,其中60% 为权益融资, 40% 为债务融资。

micro lending and start up finance is a tiny proportion, but important to growth and economic resilience小额贷款和启动融资占比很小,但是对企业的成长和经济活力具有重要意义

VC and IPO only go to a tiny proportion of firms, and only in a few economies, so most SMEs dont get access

banks provide the bulk of SME finance for working capital and growth银行为中小企业的营运资本和成长提供大部分融资

-

500,000,000,000

1,000,000,000,000

1,500,000,000,000

2,000,000,000,000

2,500,000,000,000

micro start up operating growth vc ipo

Stickiness in financing 融资粘性

There is some evidence of stickiness (finance gaps) as growing firms move through stages, and change their finance needs, eg随着成长型公司达到不同的发展阶段,并更改其融资需求,有证据表明存在一定粘性(融资缺口)。

going from micro to start up or operating requires formal

financing 从微型企业到初创企业或运营企业,需要正规融资

going from debt to equity requires better governance 从债权到股权,需要更好的公司

治理

going to public equity requires investment

readiness 再到成为公众股权公司,需要投资

意愿

equity

debt

The proportion of bank lending to SMEs in most economies has declined

银行对中小企业的借贷比例在多数经济体均呈下降趋势

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Australia

Australia <100k

Canada <500 stat

Canada <100k

Indonesia

Japan SME

Japan Small

Korea

Chinese Taipei

USA <1m

USA small <100k

Bank lending on small loans or to SMEs as a % of total lending has declined in most economies for which data are available over the last 15 or so years

过去 15 年来,大多数经济体中,银行对中小企业的贷款或小额贷款比例呈下降趋势

-80.0

-70.0

-60.0

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

Australia Australia<100k

Canada<500 stat

Canada<100k

Indonesia Japan SME Japan Small Korea ChineseTaipei

USA USA small

The proportion of bank lending to SMEs in most economies has declined

银行对中小企业的借贷比例在多数经济体均呈下降趋势

.... and the decrease is bigger than can be explained by inflation....

…而且下降幅度比可用通胀解释的幅度更大

% change in proportion of bank lending to SMEs relative to large firms

Real growth of bank lending to SMEs is negative in many economies

很多经济体对中小企业的银行贷款实际上呈负增长

94 97

2001 latest

Aus

tral

ia S

ME

Aus

tral

ia s

mal

l

Aus

tral

ia la

rge

Can

dada

SM

E

Can

ada

smal

l

Can

ada

larg

e

Chi

nese

T S

ME

Chi

nese

T la

rge

Japa

n S

ME

Japa

n sm

all

Japa

n la

rge

US

A S

ME

US

A s

mal

l

US

A la

rge

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Australia SME

Australia small

Australia large

Candada SME

Canada small

Canada large

Chinese T SME

Chinese T large

Japan SME

Japan small

Japan large

USA SME

USA small

USA large 94 to Asian crisis

97 to tech wreck

2001 to latest

Average real growth of bank lending by size and period

Real growth of bank lending to SMEs has been negative, falling

对中小企业的银行贷款实际上呈负增长

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Australia < 500 k

Canada <500

Japan SME

Chinese Taipei SME

USA < 1m

Asian crisis tech wreck 911

Real growth of bank lending to small firms has been negative, falling

对小企业的银行贷款实际上呈负增长

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Australia < 100 k

Canada <100

Japan small

USA <100k

Asian crisis

亚洲金融危机

tech wreck 911

网络泡沫破灭和 911事件

but real growth in bank lending to large firms has been positive, growing

但是对大企业的银行贷款呈正增长

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Australia large

Canada large

Japan large

Chinese Taipei large

USA large

Asian crisis tech wreck 911

4.

The impact of the 2008 Financial Tsunami on SME Finance

2008 金融海啸对中小企业融资的影响

the factors leading to the 2008 Financial Tsunami

2008 金融海啸的形成因素

the factors leading to the 2008 Financial Tsunami

2008 金融海啸的形成因素

美国联邦基金利率

the factors leading to the 2008 Financial Tsunami

2008 金融海啸的形成因素

followed by a sharp fall as the financial crisis set in

随后,随着金融危机的出现,利率陡降

steady increases in official rates to combat inflation,

官方利率稳固上升以控制通胀

Source: http://comnami.com/eg_8_financial_tsunami_of_20081. technology allowed complex products to be created (eg securitised), traded, and leveraged 科技的进步使复杂的金融衍生产品被创造(如证券化)、交易和杠杆化。

2. “deregulation” moves of 1999 to repeal the Glass-Steagall act allowed banks (such as Citi, and Lehmans) to ride the wave of asset inflation. 1999 年的放松金融管制运动使银行(如花旗、雷曼)经受一波波的资产通胀。3. By 2007 this wave was shaped by a wave of SIV (Structured Investment Vehicles) write downs and Sub Prime defaults, and some bank runs from depositors (eg Northern Rock). By end 2007, the wave then came from the finance suppliers, mostly banks, who ceased to trust each other, so the interbank rates (eg LIBOR) rose steeply2007 年,结构性投资工具减记和次贷违约加重了这一波行情,一些银行(如北岩)发生挤兑事件。 2007 年底,银行变得互不信任,同业拆借利率陡升,是为第三波海啸浪潮。 4. This then led to the sharp fall in the share prices of Banks (by August 2008 Citi had fallen

58%, RBS 15.2%, Merrill 62%). This wave led to collapse and/or restructuring of many banks or near banks (Wachovia, Merrill Lynch, UBS, Indy Mac, Washington Mutual), Investment banks (Bear Stearns, Lehmans) Insurance providers (AIG), Mortgage Providers (Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae), and private equity providers (Allco, Babcock and Brown). 随后导致银行股价大幅下跌,很多银行、投行、保险机构、抵押机构和私募机构倒闭或者重组。5. Regulators and central banks scrambled to inject liquidity to the markets, partly by taking a stake in the banks. This has changed the whole pattern of competition. 监管机构和央行纷纷给市场注入流动性,部分还收购了银行股份,使整个竞争格局变了样。

the factors leading to the 2008 Financial Tsunami

2008 金融海啸的形成因素

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Dec 06 Mar 07 June 07 Sept 07 Dec 07 Mar 08 June 08 Sept 08 Dec 08\

lending growth to large firms

对大公司的贷款增长

real annual % growth

bank lending loans to SME of <$500,000 中小企业

Real growth of bank lending impact of Financial Tsunami Australia

金融海啸对澳大利亚的影响:银行借贷的实际增长情况

Australia Bank lending to SMEs and Large firms; Real growth annual nominal growth less CPI at quarterly intervals by size of loan

澳大利亚银行对中小企业和大公司的借贷情况

bank lending to very small <$100,000 小企业

Financial Tsunami of 2008

Australian banks were slowing their lending to large firms before the crisis (mostly because of rising cash rate pressures), but they further cut lending to SMEs into low or negative real growth by end 2008. 澳大利亚银行在危机发生前就放缓了对大公司的贷款,但是到 2008 年底时,也进一步削减了对中小企业的贷款,至低增长或负增长的程度。

source RBA tables D1 and G1

Growth of early stage and total VC in USA has slowed since 2001

美国早期阶段的风投和总风险资本自 2001 年以来放缓增长

0

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

1995  1996  1997  1998 1999   2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Total VC (all stages)

总风投(所有阶段)

Early stage + seed VC

Asian crisisTech wreck

2008 Financial Tsunami

USA Venture Capital Placements in nominal $US

.......and it has slowed even more in 2008/9

……2008/9 年更是进一步放缓

Anecdotally, finance has been harder to get for SMEs

中小企业面临越来越大的融资难问题

falling demand, confidence 需求缩水,信心下降

order books weak 订单减少

major customers cut back or collapse 主要客户削减开支或倒闭

higher insolvency bankruptcy rates 破产率更高

foreclosures by debt providers 债权人止赎

difficulty rolling over loans, credit 贷款和信贷难度更大

liquidity problems 流动性问题

extend payment periods 延长付款期限

Why is it becoming harder for SMEs to get finance from Banks?

中小企业为何更难获得银行融资?

Increasing intangible assets of SMEs and start ups make SME lending unattractive to banks中小企业和初创企业越来越多的无形资产使得中小企业贷款这一业务没有吸引力

BIS Basle II rules make banks rethink SME lending, and discourage uncollateralised lending新巴塞尔资本协议的规则让银行重新思考中小企业借贷,不鼓励无抵押的贷款

Banks push collateral loans, usually housing, in lieu of SME business loans相对中小企业贷款业务,银行更愿意追求抵押贷款,一般是住房抵押贷款

Banks push personal and credit card loans银行追求个人贷款和信用卡贷款业务

Banks channel SMEs to trade credit, or trade credit from large firms is more accessible to SMEs银行将中小企业转向贸易信贷,或者中小企业更容易获得大公司的贸易信贷

Improved efficiency of equity markets for SMEs针对中小企业的股票市场的效率有了提升

SMEs tap other debt sources (bonds, etc) 中小企业寻求其他债务融资来源(债券等)

and what might it mean? 什么意思? Increasing intangible assets of SMEs and start ups make SME lending unattractive to banks

BIS Basle II rules make banks rethink SME lending, and discourage uncollateralised lending

Banks push collateral loans, usually housing, in lieu of SME business loans

Banks push personal and credit card loans

Banks channel SMEs to trade credit, or trade credit from large firms is more accessible to SMEs

Improved efficiency of equity markets for SMEs

SMEs tap other debt sources (bonds, etc)

Banks need to find better ways of lending on intangibles银行需要寻求更好地给无形资产借贷的方式

APEC and BIS need to monitor the effect and revise Basle II if appropriateAPEC 和国际结算银行需要监测贷款效果,如果恰当的话,对 Basel II 进行修订

SME lending gets tied even more closely and susceptibly to housing cycle中小企业借贷与房地产周期关系更加紧密

Higher costs of borrowing for SMEs对中小企业的贷款成本更高

Difficult to borrow for SMEs which are not part of supply chain, or for SMEs in developing (2020) economies非供应链环上的中小企业,或者发展中经济体的中小企业,更难获得贷款

APEC needs to look to ways to improve equity markets. Currently SME equity markets are very inefficient in most economies APEC 需要寻求多种途径来完善股票市场。目前,大多数经济体的中小企业股票市场效率低下。

5.

What have governments done to address SME challenges in the 2008

Financial Tsunami Crisis?

政府的应对措施

Indirect impact on SMEs 间接影响:

deposit guarantees 存款担保

liquidity injections, print money 注入流动性,印刷纸币

reduce prime rates 减少最优惠利率

bank restructuring 银行重组

stimulatory fiscal spending 刺激性财政支出

grants to consumers, cash payouts 消费者赠款

Direct impact on SMEs 直接影响:

credit guarantee 信用担保

targeted tax relief 有目标的减税

loan moratoria 暂停贷款

what have governments done to address SME finance problems?

政府解决中小企业融资问题的举措

Indirect impact on SMEs

deposit guarantees

liquidity injections, print money

reduce prime rates

bank restructuring

stimulatory fiscal spending

grants to consumers, cash payouts

Direct impact on SMEs

credit guarantee

targeted tax relief

loan moratoria

what have governments done to address SME finance problems?

政府解决中小企业融资问题的举措

The problem is that most of these are

indirect, and address symptoms, not fundamentals

问题在于,大多数举措都是间接措施,治标不治本

6.

A vision of what could be done better to address SME finance challenges

如何更好地应对挑战?

Banks 银行Increasing use of portfolio lending and scoring models for loan assessment

进行贷款评估时,多运用组合贷款和打分模型

Less use of relational banking and know your customer (KYC)

少运用关系银行和了解客户

Basle II puts SME lending into different higher risk category...

《新资本协议》将中小企业贷款划入更高的风险类别…

Risk averse loan management, and declining real loans to SMEs

风险厌恶贷款管理,缩减对中小企业的真正贷款额度

SMEs 中小企业Less collateral as intangible assets, knowledge become more important.

要求以更少的抵押物充当无形资产,知识越发重要

Harder to get bank finance, SMEs seen as higher risk, and often have high default rates, NPLs

更难获得银行融资,因为中小企业风险更高,违约率高,不良资产高

Reluctant to improve education and management skill because of costs, time, relevance, and lack of incentive

由于成本、时间、相关度和缺乏激励等因素的考虑,中小企业一般不愿意提升知识水平和管理技能

Almost all SME managers have mobile phones with 3G capacity

几乎所有的中小企业经理都有具备 3G 功能的手机

The Problem 提出问题

Traditional model:

传统模型:

SME client

SME client

Bank

Bank

Alternative ICT model:

ICT模型:

Bank provides funds, but little advice or knowledge.

SME only provides bank with information on periodic basis

银行仅提供资金,不提供建议或信息。中小企业仅时不时地给银行提供信息

Bank provides funds conditional on SME using knowledge and education services to stay competitive, using

mobile technology. SME provides bank, via cellphone or computer, with information a regular basis, is matched against data base,

and advised on an exception process.

An alternative using ICT and mobile technology

运用信息通信技术和移动技术的另类方式

在中小企业运用知识和培训保持竞争力的前提下,银行才给它提供资金。中小企业通过手机或电脑定期给银行提供相关信息

How it works...for the SME customer

An SME approaches a bank for a loan, on line or in person

The bank loan assessor may rate the credit risk as high based on normal criteria, but sees potential, so seeks further diagnostic assessment

The diagnosis reveals gaps in management skills, so the bank requires as a condition of the loan that the applicant undertake specific training and maintain up to date information on unique web site

Bank loan provided at discounted rate, backed by government credit guarantee

1

2

3

4

Better management and returns for the SME and bank

对中小企业和银行:更好的管理,更高的回报

1. 中小企业向银行申请贷款。

2. 银行贷款评估员根据一般标准可能将其信用风险等级定为

“高”,但是看到其发展潜力,因此进行进一步诊断和评估。

3.诊断报告揭示企业在管理技能上尚有欠缺,因此银行要求贷款申请人进行培训,不断更新相关知识,以此作为贷款的前提。

4. 在政府信用担保的支持下,以一定的贴现率发放银行贷款。

中小企业客户方面:

How it works... for the bank

Appropriate relevant training developed, or bought in, and...

Bank identifies opportunities to reduce risk of lending to SMEs via active risk management, and training of assessors/loan managers, moves more to IRB Basle II base

...first tier of benefits from improved risk management and compliance as made available on-line to bank staff assessing or managing SME loans

1

2

3

second tier of benefits from active risk management of SME clients, and as bank on-line learning platform is made available to SMEs

4

Better management and returns for the SME and bank

对中小企业和银行:更好的管理,更高的回报

银行方面:

1. 银行通过积极的风险管理发现降低中小企业贷款风险的机会,对贷款经理和评估员进行培训,逐步实施《新资本协议》的内部评级法。

2. 进行适当的培训…

3. 改进风险管理和合规之后,第一重好处是利于银行贷款评估员和中小企业贷款员

4. 第二重好处是对中小企业客户的积极风险管理,银行的网上学习

平台也可供中小企业使用。

Content learningmaterial

Cases and examples

intelligenceand news

Assessment

Library andtext

Access to mentors and

chatSME - Bank

shared website

Industry Associations

Design curriculum in conjunction with SMEs, government, banks etc.

Implements assessment and

accreditation

Gives access to mentors

Banks

Give access to SME clients to platform and content via an extranet, internet.

Monitors performance against

portfolio, and improves risk selection and management

Universities, Content Developers

design and update content in conjunction with industry

associations, SMEs, banks, and government

Role in accreditation and articulated education

IT companies, Telcos

Work with banks, government, Industry

Associations etc to develop better access platforms and services, and to grow market

SME client

Government agencies

Collaborate in design, accreditation standards etc

but requires a consortium approach to achieve

但是需要多方协同才能实现

7.

Conclusions

结论

SMEs are important: they contribute about half the GDP, half the employment, and most of the job growth in APEC 中小企业作用重大:为 APEC 贡献了大约一半的 GDP 、一半的就业和大多数的新增就业岗位。

There is a major economic and financial crisis about every 6 or 7 years. The 2008 crisis is unusual in that it is affecting so many economies at the same time. The big impact on SMEs is probably not likely to be felt until 2009/2010每隔六七年就会发生一次比较严重的经济和金融危机。 2008 年的危机的不寻常之处在于,它同时对众多经济体产生影响。其对中小企业的巨大影响很可能直到 2009/2010 年才感受得到。

SMEs have proved resilient in adapting to previous crises经证明,中小企业在适应危机方面颇具韧性。

Banks are the largest source of finance to SMEs, and supply over half of SME finance 银行是中小企业最大的资金来源,为中小企业提供一半以上的融资。

There is a long term structural problem that real growth in bank finance has been low or negative. SMEs have been finding it harder to get bank finance for the last decade or so. 长期存在一个结构性问题,即银行融资实际上一直是低增长或者负增长。过去十年来,中小企业获得银行融资的难度越来越大了。

In the short term (12 - 18 months) the government and bank response is not likely to have much direct effect on SME Finance. 短期来看( 12-18 个月),政府和银行不可能给中小企业融资带来很多直接影响。

There is a now window of opportunity to improve the management of risk by banks in lending to SMEs, and improve management of SMEs by getting banks, ICT suppliers, telcos and governments to work cooperatively. 通过银行、信息技术提供商、电信运营商和政府的通力合作,现在有机会提高银行给中小企业贷款的风险管理水平,并且改进中小企业的自身管理水平。

Thank you!