World Hunger and Food

Security

Lecture Series in Quantitative

Sustainability

by

Toni Menninger http://www.slideshare.net/amenning/

World Hunger and Food Security

• About 18 Million people die each year from

hunger, 10 million of them are children

• 850 million are undernourished – 1 in 8 people

worldwide

• 2 billion suffer from micro nutrient deficiency

• 1.2 billion are overfed

• 1 in 5 US children affected by food insecurity

World Hunger and Food Security

• 850 million are undernourished – 1 in 8 people worldwide

Congo 50% undernourished

Mongolia

World Hunger and Food Security

Is there enough?

World Hunger and Food Security

• The average person requires 2200 to 2400 dietary

calories (kcal) per day.

• Per capita food consumption in 2003: 2800 kcal,

up from 2250 in 1961 (FAO).

• Since the “Green Revolution”, food production has

increased faster than world population.

• Theoretically, even today there is enough food for 8

billion people.

• Hunger is not caused by a global food shortage. It

is caused by economic inequality – the poorest

people can't afford an adequate diet.

• Per capita food consumption: 2800 kcal (FAO data for

2003), up from 2250 in 1961.

• Since the Green Revolution” after WWII, food

production has increased faster than world population.

Increase appears to have slowed since 1990.

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

Food consumption per capita

Source: FAO

Grand Total

Linear Regression for

Grand Total

kcal/capita/d

ay

Global

• Since the post war “Green Revolution”, food

production has increased faster than world population.

Increase appears to have slowed since 1990.

• However, cereal production per capita has peaked in

1985 and has since been in decline.

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Cereals total production and consumption per capita

Cereals total production per

capita

Cereals total consumption -

Excluding Beer

kg/c

apita/y

ear

World's largest grain producers, 2010 (FAOSTAT) 0 100,000,000 200,000,000 300,000,000 400,000,000 500,000,000 600,000,000

ChinaUnited States of America

IndiaIndonesia

BrazilFrance

Russian FederationBangladesh

ArgentinaCanada

Viet NamGermany

UkraineThailand

MexicoMyanmarPakistanAustralia

TurkeyPoland

Iran (Islamic Republic of)Philippines

United KingdomNigeria

EgyptSpain

ItalyRomaniaEthiopia

South AfricaHungary

KazakhstanJapan

Projected population growth to 9 billion by 2050 –

almost 80 million new eaters every year -

how to feed the world sustainably?

→ Food security requires population stabilization

and/or increase in the amount of food available

and/or more equitable distribution/access!

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

Food consumption per capita

Source: FAO

Grand Total

Linear Regression for

Grand Total

kcal/capita/d

ay

Projected population growth to 9 billion by 2050 –

almost 80 million new eaters every year - how to

feed the world sustainably?

→ Food security requires population stabilization

and/or increase in the amount of food available

and/or more equal distribution/access!

Brainstorming question: Group work

How can the amount of food energy available

to humans be increased? What possible

approaches do you see? Think in terms of the

whole system – try to adopt a Systems

Perspective!

• Area under cultivation

• Land productivity (yield per acre)

• Availability for human consumption

• Post-harvest losses and waste

Factors determining food supply

Area under cultivation

→ Protect arable land from erosion, degradation,

desertification, urban development

→ Climate Change: some marginal areas may become

available for cultivation but some prime crop areas are

threatened

→ Expanding agricultural area in many countries not

possible or only at high environmental cost

→ Tropical rainforest soils not suitable for intensive

agriculture

→ Some marginal areas can be made productive if

carefully managed – avoid overgrazing

→ Increasing importance of Urban Gardening

Factors determining food supply

Area under cultivation: slight decline since 1970s

Factors determining food supply

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

0

100000000

200000000

300000000

400000000

500000000

600000000

700000000

800000000

Total harvested area for selected crops (source: FAO)

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

Wheat

Cereals,Total

Ha

Wheat

Rice

Corn Soybeans

Cereals total

Productivity (yield per acre)

Thanks to the Green Revolution, global food production

since 1960 has more than kept up with population growth. How

was this achieved, and at what price?

→ Green Revolution yield gains through:

• Synthetic fertilizer

• Chemical pesticides

• Irrigation

• High performance crop varieties (hybrid,

genetic engineering)

• Capital and energy intensive, dependence of

farmers from agribusiness; is it sustainable?

Factors determining food supply

Productivity (yield per acre):

→ Green Revolution yield gains through:

• Synthetic fertilizer

• Pesticides

• Irrigation

• High performance crop varieties (hybrid, genetic engineering)

• Capital and energy intensive, dependence of farmers from

agribusiness; is it sustainable?

→ Yield gains through alternative approaches?

• Permaculture, locally adapted varieties, diversification

instead of monoculture

• Higher labor input required

Factors determining food supply

Recommended

reading: National

Geographic Special

Report: The Global

Food Crisis

Productivity (yield per acre)

Green Revolution yield gains

through:

• Synthetic fertilizer

→ Compare grain production

and fertilizer use – which has

grown faster? Is it sustainable?

Productivity (yield per acre)

→ Green Revolution yield gains through:

• Irrigation – is it sustainable?

Productivity (yield per acre)

→ Green Revolution yield gains

through:

• Irrigation

The map shows ground water changes

in India during 2002-08, with losses in

red and gains in blue, based on

GRACE satellite observations. The

estimated rate of groundwater table

decline in northwestern India is 33

centimeters per year. Increases in

groundwater in southern India are due

to recent above-average rainfall,

whereas rain in northwestern India was

close to normal during the study

period. Credit: I. Velicogna/UC Irvine

(source: UC Irvine)

Productivity (yield per acre)

→ Green Revolution yield gains through:

• Irrigation

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cf

m?id=is-india-running-out-of-water

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/i

ndia_water.html

"If measures are not soon taken to ensure

sustainable ground water usage,

consequences for the 114 million residents

of the region may include a collapse of

agricultural output, severe shortages of

potable water, conflict and suffering," says

Matt Rodell of NASA's Goddard Space

Flight Center.

1 foot ground water

decline per year

Productivity (yield per acre)

→ Green Revolution yield gains through:

• High performance crop varieties (hybrid, genetic

engineering)

• Decline in the variety of food crops because a handful of

high performance varieties dominate the seed market

• Tendency to monoculture and industrial farming

• Commercial varieties often not adapted to local

conditions in developing countries (especially Africa) and

to the needs of small subsistence farmers

• Hybrid and patented GM varieties are expensive and

farmers are prevented from reseeding their own seed

Decline in the variety of food crops

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/07/food-ark/siebert-text

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/07/food-ark/potato-variety

Productivity (yield per acre)

→ Green Revolution yield gains through:

• High performance crop varieties (hybrid, genetic

engineering)

→ Yield gains through alternative approaches?

• Permaculture, locally adapted varieties, diversification

instead of monoculture

• Higher labor input required

Productivity (yield per acre)

→ Green Revolution yield gains: consistent linear trend

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

R² = 0.99

R² = 0.97

R² = 0.96

R² = 0.98

R² = 0.96

Crop yields 1961-2007

Source: FAO (http://faostat.fao.org/site/567/default.aspx)

Maize

Linear Regression for Maize

Rice

Linear Regression for Rice

Soybeans

Linear Regression for Soybeans

Wheat

Linear Regression for Wheat

Cereals,Total

Linear Regression for

Cereals,Total

in H

g/H

a

1Hectogram (Hg) = 100 gram

Productivity (yield per acre)

→ Green Revolution yield gains: consistent linear trend

implies decline in fractional growth rate

(Source: Science, Sept 25, 2009)

Availability for human consumption

→ Competition for harvested food between humans,

livestock, cars (biofuels), and pests (rats)

→ Also, some agricultural production not edible:

coffee, tea, tobacco, cotton, flowers ...(cash crop)

→ In many poor countries, a large share of

agricultural production consists in cash crops for

export. These countries lose the ability to grow

their own food and become dependent on

commodity prices on the world market. Their

agriculture is often dominated by large corporate

plantations and lacks diversity.

Factors determining food supply

Availability for human consumption

→ Competition for harvested food between humans

and livestock

Factors determining food supply

Availability for human consumption

→ Competition for harvested food between humans

and cars (biofuels)

Factors determining food supply

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19206199

http://www.leopoldina.org/en/press/news/leopoldina-critical-towards-use-of-bioenergy/

The Hunger Games/

Availability for human consumption

→ Competition for harvested food between humans,

livestock, and cars (biofuels)

Factors determining food supply

http://www.tnfeedandgrain.org/2012/08/31/drought-ignites-battle-over-corn-supplies-u-s-

biofuel-mandate-pits-ethanol-refineries-against-meat-producers/

Post-harvest losses and waste

Factors determining food supply

Post-harvest losses (waste)

Why so much waste?

• In affluent countries: Food is cheap

• In developing countries: Infrastructure for harvest

storage, distribution, protection from pests often lacking

• Conservation principle:

Reducing waste is

much cheaper than

increasing production!

Factors determining food supply

Post-harvest losses (waste): Reducing waste is much

cheaper than increasing production!

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/23/report-finds-americans-

wasteful-of-food/

http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0007940

http://www.nrdc.org/food/wasted-food.asp

Factors determining food supply

• Population growth

• Arable land area

• Agricultural Productivity

• Diversion of agricultural resources to non-food

crops, livestock feed, and biofuels

• Post-harvest losses and waste

• Global justice and equitable access

Factors affecting food security

Systems perspective:

What strategies for improving food security

do you recommend?