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INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY

Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and Efficiency

Key Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis

ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Worldwide Trends in Energy Use and Efficiency

Key Insights from IEA Indicator Analysis

Peter TaylorActing Head, Energy Technology Policy Division

IEEJ Workshop, 7 July 2008, Tokyo

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載




ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Overview

IEA indicators work

Global patterns of energy use and CO2emissions

Understanding energy and CO2 trends in the IEA

Energy and CO2 reduction potentials

Conclusions





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

IEA Indicators Work

Establish a harmonised framework for analysisHarmonisation => ComparabilityComparability => Understanding of global trends and drivers

Produce meaningful cross-country analysis to provide guidance to policy-makers on:

Underlying drivers (economic activity & structure, income, prices...)Trends in energy use and CO2 emissionsEnergy efficiency opportunities and progressPolicy effectiveness





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Key Outputs – Published Reports

2007In support of the G8 Plan of Action

2008





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Total Final Energy Consumption per Capita

0

5 0

1 00

1 50

2 00

GJ

per c

apita

Othe r Tr a ns por t Se r vic e s Hous e holds Ma nufa c tur ing





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Total Final Energy Consumption per Unit of GDP

Index for 1990 to 2005 Absolute Values in 2005

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1 00

1 10

1 20

19 9 0 1 9 95 2 0 00 2 0 05

Inde

x (1

990=

100)

Br a zil OECD Pa c ificSouth Afr ic a OECD Eur opeMe xic o RoWUS & Ca na da Rus s iaIndia China

0

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

3 0

3 5

4 0

MJ

per

US

D 2

000

u s ing GDP a t PPP us ing GDP a t MER





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

End-Use Coverage for Indicators





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Factors Affecting Energy Use and CO2 Emissions

Households, services and transport -decomposition approach:

Energy UseActivityStructure (mix of activities)Energy intensity of each activity

CO2 EmissionsEnergy useFuel mixCarbon intensity of each fuel





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Household Energy Use by End-Use, IEA19

0

2

4

6

8

1 0

1 2

1 4

1 6

19 90 1 99 5 20 00 2 00 5

EJ

Spa c e he a ting

Applia nc e s

Wa te r he a ting

Lighting

Cooking

5 % 5 %4 % 5 %

1 7% 1 6%

1 6%2 1%

5 8%5 3%

0 %

2 0%

4 0%

6 0%

8 0%

1 00 %

19 90 20 05





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Decomposition of Changes in Space Heating per Capita, 1990-2005

-2 .0 %

-1 .5 %

-1 .0 %

-0 .5 %

0 .0 %

0 .5 %

1 .0 %

1 .5 %

Ave

rage

ann

ual p

erce

nt c

hang

e

Ac tua l s pa c e h e a tin g p e r c a p ita Dwe llin g s ize e ffe c t Oc c up a n c y e ffe c tEffic ie n c y o f c o nve rs io n e ffe c t Us e fu l in te n s ity e ffe c t





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Energy consumption of Appliances, EU15

0

1 0 0

2 0 0

3 0 0

4 0 0

5 0 0

kWh

per y

ear

1 9 9 0 1 9 95 2 00 0 20 0 5

3 5 %

4 0 %

4 5 %

5 0 %

5 5 %

6 0 %

6 5 %

19 9 0 1 9 95 2 0 0 0 20 0 5

Sha

re in

tota

l app

lianc

es e

nerg

y us

e

La r ge a pplia nc e s Othe r a pplia nc e s

Average Unit Energy Consumption Share of Large and Small Appliances

Source: ODYSSEE





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Measures of Energy Intensity in the Service Sector, 2005

0 .0

0 .2

0 .4

0 .6

0 .8

1 .0

1 .2

1 .4

1 .6

1 .8

GJ

per m

2

Ele c tr ic ity Fue ls

0 .0

0 .2

0 .4

0 .6

0 .8

1 .0

1 .2

1 .4

1 .6

1 .8

2 .0

MJ

per

US

D P

PP

200

0

Ele c tr ic ity Fue ls

Energy Use per Unit of Floor Area Energy Use per Value-Added





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Impact of Structure on Service Sector Energy Use

Factors Affecting Service Sector Energy Use Share of Floor Space by Sub-Sector

-0 .5%

0 .0 %

0.5 %

1.0 %

1.5 %

2.0 %

2.5 %

Ca n a d a J a p a n US

Ave

rage

ann

ual p

erce

nt c

hang

e

Ac tua l e ne r gy us e Ac tivity Str uc tur e Inte ns ity

0%

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

10 0%

Educ a tion He a lth

Re ta il Food & lodging

Offic e s Othe r





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Passenger Transport CO2 Emissions per Capita, 2005

0

1

2

3

4

5

t CO

2 pe

r cap

ita

Ca rs Othe r p a s s e ng e r mo de s





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Energy Use per Passenger-Kilometre (All Modes)

0 .0

0 .5

1 .0

1 .5

2 .0

2 .5

MJ

per

pkm

1 99 0 20 05





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Share of Total Passenger Transport by Mode, 2005

0 %

1 0%

2 0%

3 0%

4 0%

5 0%

6 0%

7 0%

8 0%

9 0%

1 00 %

Ca rs Bu s e s Ra il Air Wa te r





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Average Fuel Intensity of the Car Stock

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

1 99 0 19 95 2 000 2 00 5

Litr

es o

f gas

olin

e eq

uiva

lent

per

100

veh

icle

-km

USAus tr a lia J a pa n Ne w Ze a la nd Ca na da Switze r la nd Swe de n Ir e la nd Ge r ma ny Ne the r la nds Nor wa y Aus tr ia Fr a nc e UKFinla nd De nma r k Ita ly Gr e e c e





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Decomposition of Car Energy Use per Capita, 1990 – 2005

-2%

-1%

0 %

1 %

2 %

3 %

4 %

Ave

rage

ann

ual p

erce

nt c

hang

e

Ca r e ne rgy u s e pe r c a p ita Own e rs h ip e ffe c t Us a g e e ffe c t Fue l in te ns ity e ffe c t





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Freight CO2 Emissions per Unit of GDP, 2005

0 .0 0

0 .0 1

0 .0 2

0 .0 3

0 .0 4

0 .0 5

0 .0 6

0 .0 7

0 .0 8

kg C

O2

per U

SD

PP

P 2

000

Tr uc ks Othe r fr e ight mode s





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Freight Transport Energy Use perTonne-Kilometre by Mode, 2005

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

MJ

per

tkm

Tr uc ks Ra il Ships





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Decomposition of Changes in Truck Energy Intensity, 1990-2005

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Ave

rage

ann

ual p

erce

nt c

hang

e

Tr uc k e ne r gy pe r tkm Tr uc k-km pe r tkm Tr uc k e ne r gy pe r tr uc k-km





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Industry – New Approach

Indicators based physical production:Not influenced by price variationsCan be directly related to technology choicesAllow assessment of efficiency potentials

Potentials calculation:Uses comparison of actual performance vsBAT/BPTShows where the potential liesBut “instantaneous” potential, not suitable for short-term target setting





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Energy Requirement per Tonne of Clinker by Country, Including Alternative Fuels

2 .0

2 .5

3 .0

3 .5

4 .0

4 .5

5 .0

5 .5

6 .0

1 99 0 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 1 99 5 1 99 6 1 99 7 1 99 8 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 2 00 3 2 00 4

GJ

per t

onne

of c

linke

r

USChinaWe ighte d a ve r a geCa na daKor e aIndiaBr a zilSpa inIta lyGe r ma nyTha ila ndMe xic oJ a pa n





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

CO2 Reduction Potentials in Cement in 2005, Based on Best Available Technology

0.18

0.39

0.25

0.220.20 0.20

0.19

0.14

0.09

0.06

0.16

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

World Rus s ia Ca na d a US China Kore a Bra zil Ind ia OECDEurop e

J a p a n Othe r

Mt C

O2

0 .00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

Spe

cific

sav

ings

pot

entia

l (t C

O2

per

tonn

e of

cem

ent)

Fos s il fue l s a ving s Ele c tr ic ity s a ving s Alte rna tive fue lsBF s la g c linke r s ub s titution Othe r c linke r s ub s titute s Sp e c ific s a ving s p ote ntia l





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Heat Consumption in Pulp and Paper Production versus Best Available Technology

4 0

6 0

8 0

1 00

1 20

1 40

1 60

19 90 1 99 5 20 00 20 05

Eff

icie

ncy

inde

x (B

AT=

100)

J a pa nSwe de nGe r ma nyFinla ndKor e aFr a nc eWe ighte d a ve r a geBr a zilSpa inIta lyUSUKCa na da





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

CO2 Emissions per Tonne of Pulp Exported and Paper Produced

0 .0

0 .1

0 .2

0 .3

0 .4

0 .5

0 .6

0 .7

0 .8

0 .9

1 .0

1 99 0 19 95 20 00 20 05

t CO

2 pe

r ton

ne o

f pul

p ex

port

ed a

nd p

aper

pro

duce

d

USSpa inUKWe ighte d a ve r a geIta lyJ a pa nKor e aFr a nc eGe r ma nyBr a zilCa na daFinla ndSwe de n





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Specific Power Consumption inAluminium Smelting

1 4 00 0

1 4 50 0

1 5 00 0

1 5 50 0

1 6 00 0

1 6 50 0

1 99 0 19 95 20 00 20 05

kWh

per t

onne

of p

rim

ary

alum

iniu

m

Nor th Ame r ic aEur opeWe ighte d a ve r a geEa s t As iaLa tin Ame r ic aOc e a niaAfr ic a





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

CO2 Reduction Potentials in Iron and Steel in 2005, Based on Best Available Technology

0.30

0.70

0.61

0.48 0.48

0.35

0.29

0.22

0.15 0.14

0.08 0.07

0.17

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

World

Ukraine

Ind ia

Brazil

China

Rus s iaSouth

Afr i

c a

CanadaOECD Euro

pe US

Korea

J a pa n

Othe r

Mt C

O2

0 .0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Spe

cific

sav

ing

pote

ntia

l (t C

O2

per

tonn

e of

ste

el)

CDQ (or a d va nc e d we t q ue nc hing ) COG re c ove ryBla s t furna c e imp rove me nts Inc re a s e d BOF g a s re c ove rySwitc h from OHF to BOF Effic ie nt p owe r g e ne ra tion from BF g a sS te e l fin is hing imp rove me nts Sp e c ific s a ving s p ote ntia l





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Energy Saving Potentials in Chemicals in 2005, Based on Best Available Technology

Energy use (incl. electricity) Energy use (excl. electricity)

Reported Energy

UseEJ

BPT Energy

Use EJ

EEI Improvement Potential

Reported Energy Use

EJ

BPT Energy

UseEJ

EEI Improvement Potential

United States 7.8 5.2 0.67 33% 6.9 4.6 0.67 33%

Saudi Arabia 1.2 0.9 0.75 25% 1.2 0.9 0.75 25%

Taiwan 0.9 0.7 0.75 25% 0.7 0.6 0.76 25%

Netherlands 0.7 0.5 0.78 22% 0.6 0.5 0.78 22%

Brazil 0.7 0.5 0.79 21% 0.6 0.5 0.8 20%

India 1.1 0.9 0.82 18% 1.1 0.9 0.82 18%

China 4.4 3.7 0.84 16% 3.6 3.1 0.86 14%

France 0.7 0.6 0.86 14% 0.6 0.6 0.87 14%

Japan 2.2 1.9 0.86 14% 2 1.7 0.87 13%

Germany 1.3 1.1 0.87 14% 1.1 1 0.88 12%

Italy 0.5 0.4 0.86 14% 0.4 0.3 0.88 12%

Republic of Korea 1.5 1.3 0.88 12% 1.4 1.2 0.89 11%

Canada 0.9 0.8 0.92 8% 0.8 0.7 0.94 6%

United Kingdom 0.5 0.5 0.93 7% 0.5 0.4 0.96 4%

Total 33.4 26.1 0.78 22% 30.0 23.6 0.79 21%





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Power Generation – New indicators

Look at supply-side efficiencyGood IEA statistics availableCalculate efficiencies by fossil fuel and aggregate for key countries / regionsIssues around the treatment of CHPCalculate savings potentials based on

Best country average by fuel (low case)Best practice for new plant (high case)





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Efficiency of Power Production from Fossil Fuels in Public Electricity and CHP Plants

0%

5%

10 %

15 %

20 %

25 %

30 %

35 %

40 %

45 %

Eff

icie

ncy

of e

lect

rici

ty p

rodu

ctio

n

Ave r a ge 2001-2005 1990





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Technical Fuel and CO2 Savings Potentials in 2005 from Improved Efficiency

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Low Hig h Low Hig h Low Hig h Low Hig h Low Hig h Low Hig h

OECD Non-OECD World OECD Non-OECD World

EJ

0 .0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Gt C

O2

Coa l Oil Na tura l g a s

Fue l Sa ving s CO2 Sa ving s





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Changes in TFC/GDP Decomposed into Structural and Intensity Effects, 1990-2005

-2 .5%

-2 .0%

-1 .5%

-1 .0%

-0 .5%

0.0%

0.5%

Ave

rage

ann

ual p

erce

nt c

hang

e

In te ns ity e ffe c t Ene r gy s e r vic e s pe r GDP Ene r gy pe r GDP





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Long-Term Energy Savings from Improvements in Energy Efficiency, IEA11

0.5%

0.9%

2.0%

0.8%

0%

1%

2%

1973-1990 1990-2005

Ave

rage

ann

ual p

erce

nt c

hang

e

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1973 2005

EJ

Ac tua l e ne rgy us e Ene rg y s a vings d ue to e ne rg y e ffic ie nc y imp rove me nts Ene rg y e ffic ie nc y imp rove me nts

58%

Ac tua l e ne rg y us e

Hyp othe tic a l e ne rg y us e without e ne rg y e ffic ie nc y improve me nts

Sa ving s

1980 1990 2000





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Key Conclusions and Policy Messages

Indicators are a powerful tool for analysing trends in energy use and CO2 emissions, and calculating potentials for further savingsResults show the important role of energy efficiency in shaping patterns of energy use and CO2 emissions in IEA countries, but gains are often offset by other factorsLarge potential for further energy and CO2 savings in many industries and power generation (and other sectors)CO2 emissions growth can and must be decoupled from economic growth, but will require strong policy-action from GovernmentsUrgent need for governments to enhance framework for monitoring end-use energy consumption and address the gaps in available statistical data





ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Thank you !

www.iea.org/Textbase/Papers/2008/Indicators_2008.pdf

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