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Wor ld Tou r i sm Organ i za t i on

Capitn Haya 42, 28020 Madrid, Spain

Te l: 34915678100 ; Fa x: 349157137 33

E - m a i l : o m t @ w o r l d - t o u r i s m . o r g

We b : w w w . w o r l d - t o u r i s m . o r g

Tourism 2020 VisionTourism 2020 Vision

V o l u m e 4

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ContentsContents

Page

I n t roduc t i on . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Execut ive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

1. Ch an g es, P er f o r m a nce an d Tr en d s i n t h e 19 9 0 s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

1. 1 Dete rm in an t s an d In f lu en ce s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

1.2. Analysis of Flow s in Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

2. Fa cto r s , St r a teg i es, P l an s a nd Tr en d s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

2.1. Survey o f NTAs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

2.1.1. Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

2.1.2. Find ing s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

2.2. Factors Determining Europes Prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

2.2.1. Co mpet it io n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

2.2.2. Te ch no lo g y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

2.2.3. Tim esh are . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

2.2.4. Th eme P arks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

2.2.5. The Euro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

2.2.6. Airlin es . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

2.2.7. To ur op era t o rs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

2.2.8. Polit ical , Social and Behavioural Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

2. 3. Dest in a t io n St ra t e g ie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

2.3.1. Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

2. 3. 2. In d ivid u a l Co u n t ry Exam p le s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

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3. Fo recast s t o 20 20 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

3.1. Forecasts of Inbound Tourism Worldw ide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

3.2. Forecasts of Inbound Tourism to Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

3.2.1. Ove ra ll Eu ro pe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

3.2.2. Eu ro p ea n Su bre g io n s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

3.3. Forecasts of Outbound Tourism from Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

3.3.1. Ove ra ll Eu ro pe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

3.3.2. O ut b o un d t o Glo b a l Su b re g io n s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

3. 4. M ed it e rran e an Fo re cast s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

3. 5. B a lkan Fo re cast s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

3.6. Origin and Destinat ion Country Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

3.6.1. Inbound Tourism: Country Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

3.6.2. Inbound Tourism: Dest inat ions by Countries of Origin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

3.6.3. Outbound Tourism f rom Major Genera t ing Countr ies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

Appendices

1. Met ho do lo gy and Det a ils o f Tou rism 2020 Vi sio nStudy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

2. Te ch nica l No te s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

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The Tourism 2020 Visionprogramme of research and forecasting represents a continuation of

WTOs w ork in th e a rea o f to urism fo recasts initia ted in 1990 with t he g enera l objective:

to ident i fy the key t rends in to urism supply and demand w or ld-w ide , by region ; and

to determine thei r impact on the var ious sectors o f t he tour ism trade ; to gether w ith

the implicat ions for policy ma king a nd relevant strate gies.

The f irst tw o ph a ses prod uced a series of f oreca sting repo rts for the six WTO region s and a g lob-

al volume (Global Tour ism Forecasts to th e Year 2000 and Beyond ). These stud ies constitut ed pa rt

of t he WTOs commitme nt t o a ssist Mem bers in de veloping th e sophisticat ed t ourism fo recasting

capa bilities wh ich a re essent ial to support G overnme nts an d Nat iona l Tourism Adm inistrat ions

(NTAs) role in tourism ma rketing a nd pro mot ion, developm ent plann ing a nd pro vision o f infra-

structure a nd services. WTO ha s cont inued its a ssista nce in this area th roug h inter a lia a series of

technical seminars and its regular Tourism M arket Trendspublications.

The response from Mem bers to t he first series of fo recasting repo rts wa s strong ly positive w ith a

request for more detailed information such as: region-region (even country-country) flows, pro-

f i les of major out bo und travel markets (bot h e sta blished to urism sources, and emergen t origins),

assessment of prospects for groupings of countr ies smaller than, or which consti tute natural

gro upings no t in line w ith, the six WTO region s. Concise fact f iles of a numb er of ma rket seg-

ments (such a s those tha t a re already substa ntive, an d t hose w hich ha ve rapid-grow th prospects)

should also be included.

Pha se 3 - Tourism 2020 Vision- w as design ed t o t ake a ccount of these expressed needs. An exten-

sive programm e o f research a nd ana lysis wa s undertaken o ver a t w o-year period. The research

included a new survey of NTA membe rs of WTO w ith responses received f rom 85 count ries. A fol-

low -up response w a s also soug ht f rom 15 Asia n count ries in Ja nua ry and Septemb er 1998 a s a con-

sequence of the f inancial problems in t he reg ion. A survey w as a lso carr ied out am ong 50 to urism

visiona ries (i.e. t ourism a nd tra vel compa nies, an d the ir suppliers, resea rchers/w riters/pub lish-

ers/a cad emics specia lising in to urism, e cono mic an d p olitical specialists).

IntroductionIntroduction

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The results of t he Pha se 3 prog ramme o f w ork are presented in the fo l low ing series of reports:

1 Execu t i ve Summ ary

A document entitled Executive Summary was distributed at the General Assembly in Istanbul in

October 1997 which contained: global tourism prospects and determinants; regional forecasts; the

results of t he NTA survey; and the Mega trends w hich w ill need to be exploited (or ta ken into a ccount )

for success in the period to 2020. An updated version of the Executive Summary, distributed at the

Ministerial Con feren ce on Ocea ns an d New Tourism Destina tion s in Lisbo n in June 1998, w a s expa nde d

to include key developmental and marketing factors; while a second revision was published in

Decemb er 1999 ta king th e Sept emb er 1998 Asian NTA survey results into account .

2 Globa l and Reg iona l Forecasts

The de ta iled repo rt on w hich the Executive Summa ry a nd its subseq uent revision s a re ba sed.

3 M ar k e t Seg m en t s

This report cont a ins a series of f a ct files cont a ining a na lysis of ma jor a nd ra pidly g row ing ma r-

ket segment s/niches, presenting informat ion on a comparab le, action-oriente d f ormat for ea ch

subject segme nt o n:

Working def in it ions;

Est im a tes o f m agn itu de ;

Charac ter ist ics o f dema nd a nd supply ;

G ro w th pro sp ect s; an d

Promotiona l guidelines for NTAs.

4 Si x R eg i o n al V o l u m es

Examination o f chan ges, performance a nd trends in the f irst h alf o f t he 1990s w ill prefa ce deta i led

forecasts for each region, a nd special g roupings of countr ies within the se reg ions. Inbo und a nd

outbound tourism forecasts are presented, as well as principal origin-destination forecasts on a

subregion a l and (in selected m a jor cases) a cou ntry-count ry ba sis.

The present repo rt constitut es Tou rism 2020 Vision:Volume 4 Europe. It is structured in th ree pa rts

(the f irst examining the development o f t ourism in Europe in the first ha lf of the 1990s, the sec-

ond dea ling w ith the det ermina nts governing t he fo recasts for the period t o 2020, and t he third

presenting the forecasts themselves broken d ow n b y subregion).

There is also a summary of the main findings and conclusions, and this introduction. In addition,

there are t w o appe ndices conta ining ad ministrat ive, reference and technical informa t io n.

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Europe has been a long stand ing w or ld leader in terms o f to urist a r riva ls, but due to the g rowing

amo unt o f new destinations on of f er in ot her regions, its wo rld share ha s fal len by f ive percent-

age points over the period 1980 to 1998. Despite the average annual growth rate for Europe

being less than the world average over this period, Europes arrivals figures have seen strong

gro w th, just d oub ling since 1980.

Executive SummaryExecutive Summary

International Tourist Arrivals, 1950-2020

A series of Na tiona l Tourism Administra tion (NTA) surveys und erta ken by WTO over t he la st tw o

yea rs show th a t NTAs a re increasing the ir promo tiona l a ctivity and developing more a g gressive

ma rketing stra te g ies. There is also a n increa sing numb er of NTAs entering into joint vent ures with

the privat e secto r. Tourist o ffices a re diversifying t heir tourism prod uct to encoura g e new ma rket s,

sprea ding d ema nd a w ay f rom more tra dit ional area s such as ci t ies and coa stal regions. The trend

fo r visitors to ta ke multiple short brea ks rat her tha n on e long er holiday is encoura g ing ma ny NTAs

to d evelop to urist products to a tt ract shorter sta ying a nd hig her spend ing visitors. There is a lso a n

increased use of the Internet as a promotiona l and sales too l . Final ly, most destinations ant icipate

continued but stead y grow th ref lecting their relat ive ma turity a s tourism destina tions. Strong est

gro w th is a nticipa ted in the Ea st Mediterran ea n subreg ion, w ith Cyprus, Turkey an d Israel all

expecting grow th rates more tha n d ouble t he Europea n a verag e. The countr ies of Central/Eastern

Europe a lso expect strong grow th ra tes to accompany a diversi f ication of their tourism product

aw ay from t he cit ies to more rural area s.

0

20 0

40 0

60 0

80 0

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

M

illion

Arriv

als

South Asia

M idd le East

Africa

East Asia/Pacific

Americas

Europe

Actual Forecasts

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The European tourism industry faces ever increa sing levels of destination competi t ion from o ther

destinations and oth er go ods a nd services w hich vie w ith travel and to urism fo r discretiona ry t ime

an d spending. The Internet w ill become increasingly important as a promotiona l and sales too l , as

w ill Dig ita l TV wheni t becomes more estab lished. A shif t tow ards the predominance of the serv-

ice econom y in Europe w ill lea d t o t he rapid expan sion in the n umber of cal l centres for ma rket-

ing a nd sales. The t imeshare market is increa sing in importance, w ith some of the large t our oper-

ators entering the market. As leisure t ime continues to become a more valuable commodity,

theme parks w ill become increasing ly popular , by of fer ing th e visi tor a w ide rang e of at tractions

a nd f a cilities in a rela tively com pa ct area . The g rad ua l introd uction of t he Euro a s a single cur-

rency throug hout the Europea n Union w ill have a w ide rang e of posit ive ef f ects for the tourism

industry in Europe, th e ma in benef it coming from increased intra region a l tra vel. The rap id

increase in the num ber of low cost a irl ines sta r t ing up throug hout Europe w ill cont inue to boo st

intraregional travel due to the low cost of f ares. Consolida tion of t our operato rs and travel agen ts

throug hout Europe w ill cont inue, with the me dium size operato r being swa llow ed up, leaving t he

large ope rat ors and the small specialist opera to rs to serve th e ma rkets. Western societ y is experi-

encing an increased senior ci t izen seg ment, record d ivorce ra tes, later ma rriages a nd fa milies an d

increa sed sing le parent hou seholds; environme nta l aw a reness is a lso o n the increase. These fa c-

tors mean tha t the t ravel an d to urism industry must cater to a grea ter number of household and

specia l int erest segme nts.

Int ernat ional Tour ist Arr ivals in Europe Grow t h Rat e 1960-2020

The Tou rism 2020 Visionforecasts show tha t interna tional to urist arr ivals are expected t o rea ch

over 1.56 billion b y the yea r 2020. This dem onstra tes a n a nnua l grow th ra te o f 4.1 per cent over

the period 1995-2020. Long-haul travel worldwide will grow faster than intraregional travel. In

1995, long-haul travel accounted for 18 per cent of all international trips; by 2020 this is expect-

ed to increase to 24 per cent.

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

%

Actual

Trend

Actual Forecasts

-5

0

5

10

15

20

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Forecasts for internat ional tourist a rrivals to Europe show tha t t here w ill be 717 million arr ivals in

2020. This represents a n a nnua l grow th rat e o f 3.0 per cent o ver the period 1995-2020, w hich is

below the global growth rate of 4.1 per cent. Consequently the overal l share of arr ivals to the

European region is expected to decrease over the f orecast period . The g row th ra te o f a rrivals to

Western Europe w ill be th e low est of a ll the Europea n subreg ions, and by 2020 Cent ral/Ea stern

Europe will attract more visitors than Western Europe. Strong growth is also expected for arrivals

to the East Med iterran ea n subregion. Long -ha ul travel to Europe w ill grow at over one percent-

ag e po int fa ster t ha n intrareg ional tra vel over the period 1995-2020.

Executive SummaryExecutive Summary

International Tourist Arrivals by Receiving Region Growt h Rate, 1955-2020

The Tou rism 2020 Visionstudy forecasts that there wil l be over 729 mill ion outbound tourist

arr ivals gen erate d from Europe in the year 2020. This represents an an nual g row th rate over the

period 1995-2020 of 3.4 per cent, o ver half a percenta ge point b elow the globa l averag e of 4.1

per cent. Whilst Europe will remain the worlds largest tourist generating region by some consid-

erab le marg in, it is losing its ma rket sha re. In 1995, 55 per cent of a ll out bo und t ourists w ere from

Europe. By 2020, th is w ill decline to a round 47 per cent . Thou gh Western Europe w ill remain t he

largest gene rating subregion w ithin Europe over the forecast period , the East Med iterrane an sub-

region w ill show the highe st grow th rat e of o utbo und to urists. Long -ha ul travel f rom Europe w ill

grow at over double the rate o f intraregional travel bet w een 1995 an d 2020.

By 2020, 346 million to urists w ill visit Mediterran ea n d estina tions, representing ab out 22 per cent

of a l l arr ivals w orldw ide. Despite the g row th o f the Mediterranea n a s the w orlds larg est tourist

receiving region, the regions share of global tourism is expected to decrease over the period

1995-2020.

1955 1 960 1 965 1 970 1975 1 980 1 985 1 990 1995 2 000 2010 2020

A ct ua l Fo recast s

%

0

5

10

15

20

25

W or ld

EAP

Af ./ M E/ SA

Americas

Europe

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The t en Ba lkan countr ies are fo recast t o receive 79 mill ion interna tional to urist a rrivals in t he yea r

2020, thus recording a n a nnua l grow th ra te o f 4.6 per cent o ver the period 1995-2020. The lea d-

ing Ba lkan tourist destinations of Greece, Turkey, Bulga ria, Roma nia a nd Croat ia w ill retain t he

ma jority o f Ba lka n t ourist a rrivals; over 92 per cent in 2020.

Inter nati onal Touri st Arri vals by Touri st Generating Region 1995-2020

Europe

Americas

East A sia/PacificAfrica

M iddle East

South Asia

Not specif ied

Actual Forecast s

0

10 0

20 0

30 0

40 0

50 0

60 0

70 0

80 0

1995 2000 2010 2020

The individual inbo und country forecasts for the ma in tourist de stina tions within Europe show

that France will remain the regions largest tourist receiving country. By 2020, it is expected that

the re w ill be 106 million int erna tiona l tourist a rrivals to th e count ry.

The outbo und forecas ts o f the top f ive generat ing countr ies show that Germany wi ll remain the

regions largest generat ing count ry. How ever , the expected rate o f grow th of 2.9 per cent a year

w ill be below European averag e. With an expected g row th rat e of 3.9 a year , France w ill be the

fa stest g row ing gen erating ma rket of t he f ive major ones an alysed fo r this report .