1

MAS

Horn of Africa

failure collapse Rotberg

2004

Doreian and Hummon 1976: Chap. 7

2

MAS

MAS

Cederman 1997: chap.8; Lustick et

al. 2004 Weidmann et al. 2006

MAS

MAS

Geographical Information System GIS

MAS GIS

Kohler and Gumerman 2000; Gimblet 2002

MAS GIS

Cederman and Girardin 2006

GIS

MAS

(1)

30 55

PopCell Population Cell PopCell

3

State

Traits

Axelrod 1997: chap.7; Cederman 1997: chap.8

(“02”, “93”, “02”)

”02” ”93” ”02”

Resources

GIS

GIS

Sakamoto 2007: pp.8-10

2-1

GIS

PopCell 1

GIS CIESIN et al. 2004

2-2 PopCell

GNI World

Bank 2005

1

4

2-1

2-2

5

(2)

Ruler

Traits PopCell

Cederman 1997: chap.8

”**”

Ruler (“02”, “**”, “02”) ”02”

”**” ”02”

Mobilization Factors

PopCell

1974

”03” ”93”

”01”

(“03”, “93”, “01”)

6

2-3

(3) 2

Period PopCell

2-3

Deployment

PopCell State Transition

PopCell

PopCell

PopCell

PopCell

PopCell

PopCell

PopCell

2 [Sakamoto 2007:

pp.4-8]

Period

:

:

PopCell

7

PopCell

PopCell

3

PopCell

[0,1]

Cederman 1997: p.192

PopCell

MAS GIS

(1)

3-1

(1) GIS

GNI World Bank 2005 PopCell

3

8

3-1

GNI 90

ETH

(1930-1974) $168.9387

—

SOM

(1969-1991) $116.5836

—80

SDN (1956-) $499.4887

—

KEN

(1978-2002) $343.9161

Markakis 1990; Gebru Tereke1996; Markakis 1998; Brons 2001; Johnson 2003;

Woodward 2003

3-2 Sakamoto

2007: pp.4-8, pp.12-13

Coercion Effect (3) PopCell

— —

4

3-2

4

9

3-2

Period 300

PopCell 200

100

1.0

[0, 200] ( )

0 ( )

0.2

0.2

(2)

3-1

PopCell

3-1

3-2

10

300

300

60

10

3-1 :ETH :SOM :SDN :KEN

3-2

11

80

90

91

1983 2005 72

(3)

Jackson 1990; Clapham 1996

3-3

3-2 300 10

3-3

13

PopCell

3-1 1990

GNI

3-4 PopCell

(4)

(1)(2)

(3)

3-4 PopCell

15

GIS

GIS

(2)

PopCell

Woodward 2003

16

70

SPLA

90 SPLA

Cederman 1997: chap.5

EPLF TPLF

Paddison

1983

TPLF

95 72

05

17

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