xv análisis de coyuntura de américa latina y el caribe
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7/31/2019 XV anlisis de coyuntura de Amrica Latina y el Caribe
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ZVBkdhuhu ag eixwkqwrb
BM_HEB DBQHKB X EB_HOGLWDHI-UGQHGMO_G?32? Mgahbkqg gd sgugkqg aiewmgkqi jbegmiu gkqgnb agdZV Hkfirmg ag Eixwkqwrb Dbqhkibmgrhebkb gkebnbai si dbEikfggkehb ag Sivhkehbdgu ag db Eimsbb ag Lguu gk BmhebDbqhkb *ESBD( bd Egkqi Nwmhddb+
Gd sghiai ag bkdhuhu eimsgkag diu mgugu ag lwdhi b ugqhgmog ?32?+
Kiqb< Ki gu eiuqwmog agd Bkdhuhu ag Eixwkqwb ag Bmheb Dbqhkbx gd Ebhog qbqb qgmbu b miai ag mikinfhei$ sgi abab db ahmgkuhkag db simgub ag egub db nwgb gk Eidimohb eikuhagbmiu sgqhkgkqgagaheb guqg kmgi b gzbmhkb gd kwgvi siegui rwg bjib ug agubiddb+
Eiirahkbair hkqgrhkuqhqwehikbd ^hdfrgai Nik|dg|$ u+l+
Eiirahkbair ag hkvguqhnbehk Lguu G+ Mbejbai M+
Hkvguqhnbairgu dvbi Vhddbbnb Ubmhgkqi0Fgkbkai Ubmhgkqi Ubkqbkag0 Mbnab Dsg| Eagkbu0
Bdfikui Hkuwbuqx _ianwg|0 Xbkh Vbddgli Awrwgx Xivbkkx Ogmag|$ u+l+
Ahugi< Vgrkheb Bdikui+
Dbu fiqinrbfbu wubabu gk guqg aiewmgkqi bebamhei x uhk fhkgu ag
dweri$ uik wubabu obli dhegkehb Ergbqhvg Eimmiku *EE(+
EB_BEBU$ 52 AG IEQWO_G AG ?32?
kaheg
2+ GD EBMHKI AG DB SB\< VBDI_B_ DBU GZSG_HGKEHBU SBUBABU ?
?+ SIDQHEB X MIVHDH\BEHK SI_ DB SB\ GK EIDIMOHB 6
5+ E_GB_ BMOHGKQG SB_B DB SB\9 22
1+ DB SB\ EIDIMOHBKB GU DB SB\ DBQHKIBMG_HEBKB 2>
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7/31/2019 XV anlisis de coyuntura de Amrica Latina y el Caribe
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dvbi Vhddbbnb Ubmhgkqi,
Wk gsbui ebnbai ag gkugbk|bu agd ebmhki geihai gkowueb ag db sb| gk Eidimohb+ Uhgqg niohgkiu$ mdqhsdguhkqgkqiu$ qbobu x gusgbk|bu$ eikuqhqwxgk vbdhiubu
gzsghgkehbu+ Si fhk ug vg db dw| bd fhkbd agd qkgd+
Eixwkqwb gzegsehikbd
Awbkqg dbu ughu aebabu ag gkfgkqbmhgkqi gkqg gd Guqbai x
dbu vbhbu nwghddbu ag Eidimohb$ jgmiu qgkhai sgiaiu aggewagehmhgkqi ag dbu jiuqhdhabagu$ sgi qbmohk mimgkqiu agourwgab ag uidwehikgu ahbdinbabu+ Gu gkgi bfhmb rwg diugkqgkahmhgkqiu fbebubik uhgmsg+ Ugb mu sgehui ahuqhknwhdiu mbqhegu< sbeqiu ag sb| gzhqiuiu$ bewgaiu sbehbdgu aghmsiqbkehb$ glgehehiu ag hkqgdiewehk eik guwdqbaiu sgebhiux ahdiniu fbebubaiu+
Sbb gmsg|b geiagmiu diu sbeqiu ag sb| agfhkhqhviu x gkngkgbd gzhqiuiu eik gd Mivhmhgkqi 28 ag bohd *M-28($ gd GlehqiSiswdb ag Dhogbehk *GSD( x iqbu bnwsbehikgu mgkigu bhkuqbkehbu ag db Eikuqhqwxgkqg ag 2882+
Uhk gmobni awbkqg dbu dqhmbu aiu aebabu gd eikfdheqi uggewageh$ x diu gkqgkahmhgkqiu gkqg niohgkiu bkqghigu x dbuFB_E x gd GDK ki dinbik guwdqbaiu gfgeqhviu+ Si gui ewkahgikdb agueikfhbk|b x gd guegsqhehumi uiog dbu siuhohdhabagu ag wkkwgvi siegui ag sb|+
Ki iouqbkqg jix buhuqhmiu b wkb eixwkqwb gzqbiahkbhb< gdniohgki x dbu FB_E bkwkehbik wk bewgai uiog db kgniehbehksbb fhkbdh|b sikqi dbu jiuqhdhabagu0 gd GDK x gd sguhagkqg jbk
gzsgubai hkqgu gk uwmbug bd siegui$ x ag mbkgb qbmohkuisgkagkqg db ehwababkb$ inbkh|behikgu ag db uiehgaba ehvhd$hkuqhqwehikgu x db eimwkhaba hkqgkbehikbd mbkhfhguqbk gusbdaix gusgbk|b ag rwg ug bdebkegk uidwehikgu kgniehbabu+
Si gui gu eikvgkhgkqg gvhub di uwegahai gk diu bkqghigusieguiu ag sb|+ Gkqgkag uwu behgqiu x gigu swgag bilbdwegu sbb gd beqwbd siegui$ uiog db obug si uwswguqi aggeikieg rwg dbu ehewkuqbkehbu jbk ebmohbai uhnkhfhebqh-vbmgkqg+
Ogqbkew *28:?-28:6(
Fwg gd niohgki Ogqbkew rwhgk si shmgb vg| baisqwkb sidqheb ag sb| rwg hkedwx db bmkhuqb *Dgx 57($ db gfimbeikuqhqwehikbd uiog gdgeehk siswdb ag bdebdagu$ gd Sdbk Kbehikbdag _gjbohdhqbehk gk |ikbu bfgeqbabu si db siog|b x gd eikfdheqibmbai$ x wkb Eimhuhk ag Sb| ag gsgugkqbehk sdwbdbwqih|bab sbb kgniehb eik dbu nwghd dbu+ Gkqikegu gk 28:1$ ugsiawlgik$ ag wkb sbqg$ gd bewgai ag Db Whog ag Egug bdFwgni$ Qgnwb x Sb| eik dbu FB_E$ x ag iqb$ gd bewgai eik gd GSDx gd M-28 ag Egug bd Fwgni x Qgnwb Ohdbqgbd+
Gk vhqwa agd bewgai eik dbu FB_E uwnh db Wkhk Sbqhqheb
*WS( sbb jbeg siuhodg wk qkuhqi b db beqhvhaba sidqheb dgnbd xgzhuqh gd eimsimhui ag db hkugehk uiehbd x geikmheb ag diunwghddgiu+ Db WS fwg wk fgkmgki sidqhei< eikuhnwh obkebabugk gd eikngui$ beegui b eisibehikgu x niohgkiu diebdgu xbajguhk ag vbhiu nwsiu ag h|rwhgab+
Gkqg qbkqi$ gk agubiddi ag db qgnwb$ gd M-28 siswui wkahdini kbehikbd x gd GSD siswui eikvieb wkb BubmodgbKbehikbd Eikuqhqwxgkqg+ Dbu qgu nwghddbu siswuhgik gfimbu
Bkdhuhu ag eixwkqwrb BM_HEB DBQHKB X EB_HOG LWDHI - UGQHGMO_G ?32? ?
2+ Gd ebmhki ag db sb|
? Lijbk Nbdqwkn ug gfhgg b db sb| kgnbqhvb eimi db bwugkehb ag vhidgkehb a hgeqb$ gk gd ugkqhai ag vhidgkehb fuheb$ x db sb| siuhqhvb eimi uwsgbehk ag dbu eikahehikguguqweqwbdgu x ewdqwbdgu rwg db ngkgbk *28:7( Uiorg db sb|$ Obegdikb$ Fikqbmbb+
5 Sebwq$ A+ *?332($ Nwgrrb eikqrb db uiehgaba$ Oiniq$ Gusbub+1 Nbeb Awk$ M+ *?336($ is+ ehq+$ s+ 226+
Fiqi *vg Nfhei 1($ eihkehahgkai gkowgkb sbqg eik diu sgiaiu sguhagkehbdgu ag dvbi WhogVdg|+
Ebog bkiqb rwg dbu mbejbu x eikegkqbehikgu$ wki ag diu
qhsiu ag beehk eidgeqhvb mu gewgkqg$ qwvi eimi shkehsbd
miqhvi diu buguhkbqiu$ mbubegu x agubsbhehikgu$ sgugkqbkai wkbuegkui gkqg ?335 x ?33> x wk ugnwkai shei gk ?322 *vgNfhei 5(+ B guqb qgkagkehb ug uwmb gd miqhvi si db hkugnwhabax vhidgkehb ngkgbdh|bab$ eik mimgkqiu hmsiqbkqgu gk 288:$
?33? x ?322+ Gk guqg iagk ag hagbu$ db mivhdh|behk si db sb|qbmohk jb qgkhai awbkqg gd sgiai ag bkdhuhu wkb gdgvbkqgeikegkqbehk gk miqhviu ag gejb|i bd ugewguqi x dbugqgkehikgu bohqbhbu+ Bu$ gd ebmohi gzsghmgkqbai eikuhuqg gkwkb mbxi eikegkqbehk gk gd gejb|i b dbu uhqwbehikgugdbehikbabu eik db vhidgkehb x gd eikfdheqi bmbai$ gk eikqbuqg
eik gd sgiai ag diu 83$ ewxb qgkagkehbfwg b db simiehk ag db sb| x dbourwgab ag isehikgu+
Gd qgeg nbk ebmohi ag db mivhdh-|behk si db sb| ug ab gk gd eimsiqb-mhgkqi ag diu beqigu+ Gk guqg ebmsi ugiougvbk aiu nbkagu qgkagkehbu+ Si wkbsbqg$ db fimb eimi diu beqigu hkuqhqw-ehikbdgu gnhikbdgu$ dbu bdebdabu
mwkhehsbdgu x dbu niogkbehikgu agsbqbmgkqbdgu ug fwgikhkvidwebkai gk db mivhdh|behk si db sb|$ dhagbkai dbeikviebqihb b diu ahuqhkqiu gvgkqiu+ Bu$ guqg ugeqi ug fwgaguqbebkai lwkqi b dbu inbkh|behikgu uiehbdgu$ inbkh|behikgusi db sb|$ hndguhbu$ rwg qbahehikbdmgkqg jbk dhagbai gdmivhmhgkqi si db sb|+ Db sbqhehsbehk ag dbu bdebdabu x niogkb-ehikgu jb guqbai vhkewdbab bd gejb|i ag dbu uhqwbehikgu agvhidgkehb$ eimi buguhkbqiu$ mbubegu$ agubsbhehikgu$ ugewguqiu
x gqgkehikgu$ abkai ewgkqb ag db sisgkuhk ag db hkuqhqwehi-
Bkdhuhu ag eixwkqwrb BM_HEB DBQHKB X EB_HOG LWDHI - UGQHGMO_G ?32? :
Ebog bkiqb rwg dbu mbejbu x eikegk-
qbehikgu$ wki ag diu qhsiu ag beehk
eidgeqhvb mu gewgkqg$ qwvi eimi
shkehsbd miqhvi diu buguhkbqiu$ mbubegu
x agubsbhehikgu$ sgugkqbkai wk
buegkui gkqg ?335 x ?33> x wk ugnwkai
shei gk ?322
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7/31/2019 XV anlisis de coyuntura de Amrica Latina y el Caribe
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kbdhaba sodheb b hkeisib gk uwu ahuewuiu gd qgmb ag db sb|+ Siiqb sbqg$ db mivhdh|behk uiehbd jb vhuqi$ awbkqg gd sgiaibkbdh|bai$ db gmgngkehb ag ugeqigu uiehbdgu eimi veqhmbu$siodbaigu wobkiu x mwlggu+
Gk wk eikqgzqi mu bmsdhi$ guqiu nbkagu ebmohiu gusikagkb dbu ahkmhebu agd eikfdheqi bmbai$ b diu guegkbhiu ag
kgniehbehk rwg ug bogk i ug ehgbk eik diu beqigu bmbaiuhdgnbdgu$ x buhmhumi b dbu qgkuhikgu rwg gmgngk ag dbu sidqhebuag diu niohgkiu gk qwki$ bu eimi ag dbu siuqwbu ag diu ugeqiguuiehbdgu fgkqg b db nwgb x db vhidgkehb$ eikfhnwbkai bu wkebmsi eimsdgli x eikfdheqhvi+
Db sb| eimi ebmsi ag db sidqheb
Gd siegui ag mivhdh|behk si db sb| ug hkuehog gk gd sieguisidqhei agd sbu+ Gd sgiai rwg brw ug boiab ab ewgkqb ag dbu
nbkagu vbhbehikgu gk gd ebeqg ag db mivhdh|behk aguag fhkbdguag diu biu 83$ sgi di gdgvbkqg gk gddi gu eikuhagb db eikgzhkgzhuqgkqg gkqg guqiu aiu guegkbhiu$ gd ag db sb| x gd ag db sidqheb+
Db egehgkqg mivhdh|behk uiehbd ag fhkbdgu ag uhndi *vg Nfhei2( eihkehab bmsdhbmgkqg gk wkb ubdhab sidqheb x kgniehbab agd
eikfdheqi bmbai+ Ag jgeji$ gd Mbkabqi Ehwababki si db Sb| 7
bqbli b 23 mhddikgu ag uwfbnbkqgu gk dbu mgubu ag viqbehk ag288>$ eimi wkb edbb mwguqb ag db ishkhk ehwababkb gk brwgdgkqikegu+ Qbd ishkhk fbvigeh gk uwu bushbehikgu sguhagkehbdgu*288:( bd ebkahabqi Bkau Sbuqbkb Bbkni$ rwhgk gkfbqh| gk uwahuewui gdgeqibd gd qgmb ag db sb|+ Gd siegui ag kgniehbehk gk
Ebnwk gkqg 2888 x ?33? gsgugkq hkhehbdmgkqg guqb ubdhab$sgi bd ug wk siegui fbddhai vide 2:3 nbaiu db ishkhk sodheb$rwg eikuhag db ubdhab kgniehbab wk gewui bniqbai x sgfhhgewh b db vb mhdhqb sbb guidvg gd eikfdheqi+ Ag miai rwg sbbdbu gdgeehikgu sguhagkehbdgu ag ?33?$ db fbvibohdhaba agdgdgeqibai fwg sbb dvbi Whog Vdg|$ rwg gkboid gd ahuewuiag db ugnwhaba x gd bkhrwhdbmhgkqi ag db hkuwngkehb0 ewbqi biuki fwgik uwfhehgkqgu$ si di rwg db gsgqhehk hkmgahbqb agsgiai sguhagkehbd fwg gd nbk gusbdabb|i ag db ishkhkkbehikbd b db siswguqb ag Whog+
Db mivhdh|behk si db sb| ag db shmgb aebab agd kwgvi uhndi
gzsgu gk uw hkqghi guqbu qgkuhikgu uiehbdgu fgkqg b diumqiaiu sbb guidvg gd eikfdheqi+ Gk qmhkiu ngkgbdgu$ dbsgaimhkbkehb ag db guqbqgnhb ag siqguqb eikqb db vhidgkehb*mbejbu x eikegkqbehikgu( ag guqiu biu eikqgkb aiushkehsbdgu vgqhgkqgu< gejb|i b db seqheb agd ugewguqi si
Bkdhuhu ag eixwkqwrb BM_HEB DBQHKB X EB_HOG LWDHI - UGQHGMO_G ?32? 8
7 Gd Qhgmsi *288>$ 27 ag bohd($ Ug bog sbui Mbkabqi Ehwababki si db Sb| Pgk dkgb]$ ahusikhodg gk< jqqs:85$gewsgbai< ?? ag bniuqi ag ?32?+
6 Wkb bmsdhb eikviebqihb si dbu gagu vhqwbdgu sbb gd 1 ag fgogi ag ?33: mbe wk jhqi ag guqbu mivhdh|behikgu gk Eidimohb+ Gd Qhgmsi *?33:$ 52 ag gkgi($ Db mbejbagd 1 ag fgogi eikqb dbu fbe kbeh eimi wk fii gk hkqgkgq x xb guq gk 265 ehwabagu Pgk dkgb]$ ahusikhodg gk< jqqs
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7/31/2019 XV anlisis de coyuntura de Amrica Latina y el Caribe
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sbqg ag dbu Fbe-gs 6$ si wk dbai$ x agkwkehb ag uhqwbehikgu aghkugnwhaba x vhidgkehb ngkgbdh|bab$ x buguhkbqiu$ mbubegu xagubsbhehikgu$ si gd iqi *vg Nfhei 5(+ Db shmgb$ ag ebeqgmu wobki0 db ugnwkab$ mu wbd+ Db shmgb$ jbehgkai gei agdahuewui ifhehbd ag agusguqhnhi ag db hkuwngkehb0 db ugnwkab$ gkdb vi| ag ugeqigu uiehbdgu mbnhkbaiu x veqhmbu agd eikfdheqi+
Guqbu fwg|bu ug agobqhgik ag kwgvi
gk ?323$ ewbkai diu guwdqbaiu b fbvi agLwbk Mbkwgd Ubkqiu ahgik ewgkqb ag dbsguhuqgkehb ag db ishkhk b fbvi ag dbsidqheb ag ugnwhaba dhagbab si uwbkqgegui+ Sgi aguag gd mhumi ahuewui agsiuguhk ag Ubkqiu>$ db ishkhk ug vhiuisgkahab eik db hkqgkehikbdhaba agdgehk gdgeqi sguhagkqg ag bvbk|b gk gd qgmb ag sb|+ Gddi bohwk kwgvi guegkbhi sidqhei gk gd ewbd diu ugeqigu bfgeqiu b dbubdhab kgniehbab bwmgkqbik gd vidwmgk ag uwu agmbkabu$ ghkedwui ugeqigu sidqheiu bdhkgbaiu eik gd whohumi jix ug
gbnwsbk gk qiki b db wkhaba kbehikbd siswguqb si gd beqwbdmbkabqbhi$ gusbdakaidi gk uwu sgqgkuhikgu x uwnhhgkaibahehikbdmgkqg wkb siuhodg ggdgeehk:+ Db dgnhudbehk gk mbqghbag sb|$ hmswdubab si gd niohgki ag Ubkqiu *eimi gd Mbei
Lwahei sbb db Sb|$ db Dgx ag Veqhmbu x _guqhqwehk ag Qhgbu$ dbgfimb b db Dgx ag Lwuqhehb x Sb|($ ab shuqb b guqb hkqgkehkggdgeehikhuqb+
Bu$ gk gd wmobd agd sgiai eimhehbd sbb gd ?321$ x bohgqbueikvgubehikgu gzsdibqihbu gkqg gd Niohgki x dbu Fbe$ gdahuewui ag db sb| ug sikg ag kwgvi gk gd guegkbhi eimi
hkuqwmgkqi ag db sidqheb gdgeqibd+ Db
qbgb ki gu fehd sbb Ubkqiu$ rwhgk qgkarwg eikvgkeg b aiu nbkagu ugeqigu ag dbishkhk sbb eikubnbug eimi gdSguhagkqg ag db sb|< bd ugeqi rwg uiuqhgkgdb uidwehk mhdhqb agd eikfdheqi$ dhagbaijix si dbu fhdbu agd whohumi$ x bd rwghkuhuqg gk db uidwehk kgniehbab sgi rwg
qiabvb ki eikuhagb b Ubkqiu eimi agsiuhqbhi ag uw viqi x uweikfhbk|b+ Dbu vbhbehikgu gk guqbu siuhehikgu vbk b agsgkag agdiu bvbkegu x guwdqbaiu gk dbu sidqhebu ag niohgki$ x ag diudiniu gk gd guegkbhi ag ahdiniu rwg ug jbk bohgqi+ Iqbu
isehikgu sguhagkehbdgu rwg uwlbk gk gd ebmhki qgkak rwgodbkah uwu bnwmgkqiu ag nwgb x sb| fgkqg b diu ugeqigu agishkhk uh rwhggk bushb b uidhi gk gd szhmi sgiai+
Bkdhuhu ag eixwkqwrb BM_HEB DBQHKB X EB_HOG LWDHI - UGQHGMO_G ?32? 23
Iqbu isehikgu sguhagkehbdgu rwguwlbk gk gd ebmhki qgkak rwg odbkah
uwu bnwmgkqiu ag nwgb x sb| fgkqg b
diu ugeqigu ag ishkhk uh rwhggk
bushb b uidhi gk gd szhmi sgiai+
> _gvhuqb Ugmbkb *?323$ > ag bniuqi($ Ahuewui eimsdgqi ag siuguhk ag Lwbk Mbkwgd Ubkqiu Pgk dkgb]$ ahusikhodg gk< jqqs8?-5+busz$ gewsgbai< ?? ag bniuqi ag ?32?+
: Ahbhi Db Ishkhk *?32?$ 2> ag bniuqi($ Ug mwgvgk diu bsixiu sbb db ggdgeehk ag Ubkqiu Pgk dkgb]$ ahusikhodg gk< jqqs)iiq)gahehikgu-bkqghigu)hqgm)??1-sid'E5'BAqheb-x-mivhdh|beh'E5'O5k-si-db-sb|-gk-eidimohb $ gewsgbai< 23 ag ieqwog ag ?32?+
Fiqi