津波 131112 前日シンポ...the research group lead by prof. dante figueroa from the university...
TRANSCRIPT
津波防災の今後の技術の方向性-観測,警報,防災情報-
2013年11月12日,第60回海岸工学講演会 前日シンポジウム,九州大学
関西大学社会安全学部高橋 智幸
16時08分M8.4
11日14時49分M7.9
15時14分M7.9
15時30分M7.9
21時35分M8.8
18時47分M8.8
13時50分M8.8
20時20分M8.8
13日07時30分M8.8
地震発生:3月11日14時46分頃,M9.0
3m6m3m
3m6m>10m6m4m3m
3m6m4m8m>10m>10m>10m>10m>10m4m
6m8m6m3m>10m>10m>10m>10m>10m>10m4m6m4m3m3m3m3m
22時53分M8.8
12日03時20分M8.8
17時58分M9.0
11日14時49分M7.9
15時14分M7.9
地震発生:3月11日14時46分頃,M9.0
3m6m3m
3m6m>10m6m4m3m
切り替え
引用:港空研資料 No.1231
第1波
発生した津波を観測↓
津波警報の信頼性向上
港空研(2011)に加筆
観測体制の整備(短期的)↓
既設設備の活用
GPS波浪計
56
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内閣府(2012)のケース③の図面を修正
GPS波浪計→ 津波波源に含まれる↓
津波波源の情報↓
津波警報の過小評価の有無をチェック
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1st Check�η0 �
2nd Check�ηmax �
地震発生
津波警報(信頼性の向上)
門廻ら(2013)
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観測 X
過小評価の危険性
門廻ら(2013)
観測体制の整備(中長期的)
↓点での観測+
面的,広域の観測(例)海洋レーダ
送信アンテナ
受信アンテナ
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Hinata et al. (2011)海洋レーダが観測した東北津波の流速分布
観測体制の整備(中長期的)
↓点での観測+
面的,広域の観測(例)海洋レーダ
海洋レーダによる東北津波の流速分布(観測)と水位分布(推定)
Hinata et al. (2011)
観測体制の整備(中長期的)
↓点での観測+
面的,広域の観測(例)海洋レーダ
May 2011
Page 2 of 2
HELZEL Messtechnik GmbH, Carl-Benz-Str. 9, 24568 Kaltenkirchen, Germany
Tel.: +49 (0) 4191 95 20 – 31, Fax: – 40, Email: [email protected] Web: www.helzel.com
The theoretical basis for this approach is that tsunami waves generate a characteristic periodic ocean
surface current pattern that can be used as the tsunami “signature”. This tsunami signature was detected
in the signal recorded by the WERA system in Chile. A comparison of the measured radar signatures with
nearby sea level measurements showed a high correlation between the two signals confirming that the
WERA system was successful in capturing the tsunami signal (see Figure 1).
This unique radar measurement of a real
tsunami is the proof of concept the ocean radar
community has been waiting for. The delay of
this discovery and announcement is solely due
to fact that the radar site in Chile (see Figure 2)
is not equipped with real time telemetry.
In addition, the significance of this finding
required the rigorous review of the acquired
data and confirmation of the results by three
independent scientific groups (University of
Concepcion, Chile, University of Hamburg, and
Hamburg University of Technology, Germany).
The final and detailed results of the analysis will
be presented by these groups in upcoming
conferences and in the peer reviewed literature.
The used ocean radar system WERA, manufactured by Helzel Messtechnik of Germany, is the most
reliable and accurate system. It can be easily operated from land and provides data over a range
exceeding 200 km (for low HF frequencies). Within this range a tsunami signature can be detected
making WERA a useful component for any national and/or international Tsunami Early Warning System.
Helzel Messtechnik provides a WERA tsunami
detection software package with automated
analysis on three different levels as displayed in
Figure 3. The adaptation to location specific
conditions requires scientific expertise that can
be provided by Helzel Messtechnik and their
scientific partners.
More detailed information on tsunami research
using WERA HF radars can be found online at
www.helzel.com
1 D. E. Barrick, 1979. “A coastal radar system for tsunami warning”, Remote Sensing of the Environment Vol. 8, 353-358]
² K.-W. Gurgel, A. Dzvonkovskaya, T. Pohlmann, T. Schlick, E. Gill, 2011. "Simulation and detection of tsunami signatures in ocean surface currents
measured by HF radar“, Ocean Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Science, Springer, DOI 10.1007/s10236-011-0420-9
Fig. 2: WERA ocean radar system at Rumena, Chile, (near Concepcion).
The system shown operates at 22 MHz and consists of a short array of
8 antennas that receive the signal backscattered from the surface of the
ocean.
Fig. 3: The WERA tsunami detection software package. It consists of three
levels of analysis that can be integrated into any Tsunami Early Warning
System. Its application requires a 50 km minimum distance between the
coastline and the continental shelf edge.
2011 Tohoku Tsunami
North-west
Fig.1: Left panel: Used beam (15°) for the plot on the right panel. The direction of the approaching tsunami is marked yellow, thesize of the measured pixel is marked red.Upper panel: Colour coded plot of WERA derived current velocities as function of time (x axis) and range (y axis).Lower panel: Sea surface elevation measurements from a tide gauge located approximately 50 km away from the WERA site.Note the significant correlation between the WERA derived velocity and sea surface elevation variability due to the tsunamigenerated by the earthquake in Japan.
WERA in Chile observed Tsunami Signature
The research group lead by Prof. Dante Figueroa from the University of Concepcion in Chile, hasreported that their WERA radar system was able to capture the signal of the tsunami that strucknortheast Japan in March, 2011. This is the first time ever that an ocean radar detected an approachingtsunami.
After the strong earthquake occurred in Japan on March 11, 2011, the generated tsunami travelledacross the Pacific Ocean and reached the coast of Chile within 22 hours. Following the earthquake andtsunami news, and due to lack of internet access, Prof. Dante Figueroa drove to the remote WERAocean radar site and manually switched his WERA system into fastest operation mode, which allows thecollection of real-time data every 30 seconds.
The theoretical basis for the detection of an approaching tsunami with ocean radars was firstintroduced by Dr. D. Barrick in 19791; nevertheless until this event, no real data of tsunami detectionexisted to confirm the ability of ocean radar systems to detect an approaching tsunami. Following theSumatra tsunami in 2004, Drs A. Dzvonkovskaya and K.-W. Gurgel (University of Hamburg, Germany)used a numerical model that was able to prove that ocean radar systems could be used as TsunamiEarly Warning Systems². The results clearly showed that ocean radar systems can be used as a tsunamiwarning system, assuming the distance between the coastline and shelf edge is long enough (> 50 km)to allow sufficient time for warning. This can be achieved only with array type antenna systems likeWERA which are the only systems able to provide the spatial and temporal resolution required forreliably detecting the fast approaching tsunami wave².
HELZEL (2011)
観測体制の整備(中長期的)
津波波源
紀伊水道や伊勢湾へ伝播
をカバー
する津波も観測可能
室戸岬潮岬
超巨大地震↓
津波警報の信頼性向上+
激甚被災地の探索
↓点での観測+
面的,広域の観測(例)海洋レーダ
津波波源は内閣府(2003)から転記Google Mapを使用
白浜局(和歌山県西牟婁郡白浜町)
美浜局(和歌山県日高郡美浜町)
2012年9月末和歌山県に
海洋レーダを設置完了↓
研究観測中
2012年度から津波を対象とした海洋レーダによる研究観測を開始関西大学・国土技術政策総合研究所・琉球大学・情報通信研究機構
2012年10月28日(日本時間)カナダ・クイーンシャーロット諸島地震津波
M7.7
JAMSTEC HPより
7mm程度の海面変動
岡本(2013)
海洋レーダ(関西大・国総研・琉球大・NICT)
GPS波浪計(港空研,2011) DONET(JAMSTEC HPより)
津波モニタリング
防災実務者
生データ
防災情報の種類,量,インターフェース
シミュレーション
付加価値
避難所までの最短経路 ≠ 安全な避難路
AR (Augmented Realty,拡張現実)↓
実際の風景 + 防災情報(浸水深や避難所,避難ビル,避難経路)
AR画面:防災情報のアイコンやデータを表示
避難所・避難ビルのアイコン避難経路の方向
瓦礫が浮かんだ水面(動画)
浸水深
避難所,避難ビル,避難経路
地図画面:堺市ハザードマップを表示
携帯端末用アプリ
+紙のハザードマップ
↓防災教育の教材※災害時には
使用しない!
梅本ら(2013)
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東北津波 AR Viewer
東北地方太平洋沖地震津波合同調査グループ
梅本ら(2013)
避難訓練支援ツール(開発中,プロトタイプ完成)
GPS & ジャイロ小型PC
神戸市に適用予定
イメージ
避難訓練 避難経路+避難所津波外力(到達時間,浸水深)
ご清聴ありがとうございました.