臺灣銀行 總經理 張明道 2012.5.13

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義守大學專題演講. 我國銀行業的機會與挑戰. 臺灣銀行 總經理 張明道 2012.5.13. 大 綱. 壹、 國際經濟 情勢 貳、 國 內 經濟 情況 參 、 我國銀行業經營現況 肆、銀行業的機會與挑戰. 壹、國際經濟情勢. 一、全球經濟雙速成長. ( 一 ) 主要工業國家經濟欲振乏力. 資料來源:各國官方網站。. ( 二 ) 亞洲主要國家經濟表現較佳. 單位: %. 資料來源:各國官方網站。. 美、歐、中國大陸及東協六國 GDP 占全球 GDP 比率. %. 資料來源: IMF. (三)本年主要國家經濟成長率預測. %. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • * 2012.5.13

  • *

  • *

  • *()

    /2008-0.30.31.1-0.1-1.1-1.02009-3.5-4.2-5.1-2.7-4.4-5.520103.01.93.71.52.14.420111.71.43.01.70.8-0.7

    2010 32.52.14.01.63.05.542.32.13.71.41.73.12011 10.42.44.72.31.5-0.321.31.62.91.70.4-1.731.81.32.71.60.3-0.443.00.72.01.30.5-0.62012 12.20.0

  • *()%

    /20089.6 2.3 1.7 2.320099.20.3-1.0-2.6201010.46.314.87.020119.23.64.95.0

    201119.74.29.17.629.53.51.25.339.13.66.04.348.93.33.63.0201218.11.6

  • GDPGDPIMF%

  • *(Global Insights Ins.) ,20124%

    Chart1

    2.2

    1.5

    -0.5

    4.8

    8.4

    3

    3.7

    2

    3.8

    Sheet1

    2.21.5-0.54.88.43.03.72.03.8

  • *() OECD growth cycle outlookOECD: regained momentum: regained momentum: potential turning point: potential turning point: continued sluggish activity: continued sluggish activity: regained momentum

  • *()%

    /20083.83.33.65.91.42009-0.40.32.2-0.7-1.420101.61.63.33.3-0.720113.02.74.55.4-0.3

    2011103.53.05.05.5-0.2113.43.04.84.2-0.5123.02.74.24.1-0.22012 12.92.73.64.50.122.92.73.43.20.332.72.73.53.60.5

  • *Bloomberg2007/1/1-2012/4/27 119.6104.79/1.(Thomson Reuters) Mar.22, 2012 2.(U.S.A. Energy Information Administration), Mar.6, 2012 ()10058.2859.51141.84144.28

    2012105.0105.7114.7

  • *() 2008 Federal funds rateRepo rate(0~0.25%)(0~0.1%)%(0.5%)(1.0%)2010201120124/20

  • * :200811 (Quantitative Easing,QE1) 201011QE2Fed(2011)9214,000Fed2011892013(0-0.25%)2014:ECB20111221Long-term Refinancing Operations, LTRO31%4,890229LTRO5,300:2010103570200932,00020111062,750295003,250

  • *(3.50%)%4/20(0.5%)20102011(3.25%)()(1.875%)2012

  • *

  • *()GDPEurostat%60%

    Chart1

    145165.3

    118.6120.1

    93.3107.8

    92.5108.2

    82.385.8

    8381.2

    61.268.5

    2010

    2011

    Sheet1

    2010145.0118.693.392.582.383.061.2

    2010144.9118.493.392.582.383.261.0

    2011Q2154.7121.2106.5102.386.082.066.0

    2011165.3120.1107.8108.285.881.268.5

  • *GDPEurostat% 3%

    Chart1

    10.39.1

    4.63.9

    9.84.2

    31.213.1

    7.15.2

    4.31

    9.38.5

    2010

    2011

    Sheet1

    201010.34.69.831.27.14.39.3

    2010144.9118.493.392.582.383.261.0

    2011Q2154.7121.2106.5102.386.082.066.0

    20119.13.94.213.15.21.08.5

  • (PIIGS)Bloomberg2012.5.4*

    2012/05701931401033802012/063324410201004792012/07403623302216562012/0841274160834142012/091627500.18843752012/1013358602946712012/11018550262162012/123447260575332162,3382010.189673,724

  • *()EFSF20108420111126EFSF1ESM20127EFSF5,000IMF4IMFIMF7,000LTRO52334891.9(1%)LTRO 2238005,2902532712

  • *56(Francois Hollande)51.7%173562Syriza9IMF

  • *

  • *

  • *201010.72%2011 4.04%2012 3.38%f% 201214302-4222

  • *1732233894514520102011132.12012

  • *%11

    Chart1

    71.91

    36.55

    41.21

    33.28

    31.45

    24.9

    21.11

    23.51

    12.08

    14.4

    19.61

    18.93

    17.94

    12.99

    14.64

    8.36

    8.64

    4.36

    3.85

    4.46

    1.71

    1

    -4.58

    -8.06

    -16.75

    8.35

    -3.42

    Sheet1

    1234567891011122010/1234567891011122011/1234567891011122012/123

    -42.64-26.29-24.73-19.3-18.13-10.74-7.18-8.952.87.3831.9547.7671.9136.5541.2133.2831.4524.921.1123.5112.0814.419.6118.9317.9412.9914.648.368.644.363.854.461.711-4.58-8.06-16.758.35-3.42

    9899100

  • *%42610(CPI)1.94%21.46%0.48

    Chart1

    0.26

    2.34

    1.26

    1.34

    0.76

    1.19

    1.31

    -0.47

    0.29

    0.56

    1.52

    1.24

    1.1

    1.33

    1.4

    1.31

    1.66

    1.95

    1.33

    1.34

    1.37

    1.26

    1.03

    2.02

    2.35

    0.23

    1.21

    CPI

    Sheet1

    1234567891011122010/1234567891011122011/1234567891011122012/123

    CPI0.262.341.261.340.761.191.31-0.470.290.561.521.240.262.341.261.340.761.191.31-0.470.290.561.521.241.11.331.41.311.661.951.331.341.371.261.032.022.350.231.21

    PPI6.86.096.879.069.437.025.323.333.773.672.422.346.86.096.879.069.437.025.323.333.773.672.422.341.973.875.824.663.423.894.044.085.085.754.914.284.371.84-0.11

  • *(%)()()4.17%47.0

  • *%

    Chart1

    217.35175.7

    166.90932.6

    233.56250.1

    219.21847.7

    254.64557.5

    227.14934.1

    238.99638.5

    240.4826.6

    223.95817.5

    241.921.9

    243.71221.8

    238.12619

    253.32916.6

    212.26327.2

    272.25216.6

    273.11324.6

    278.6969.4

    251.65410.8

    281.2417.7

    257.8127.2

    246.19.9

    270.26211.7

    246.7591.3

    239.5130.6

    210.799-16.8

    234.05210.3

    263.437-3.2

    ()

    ()

    Sheet1

    2010/1234567891011122011/1234567891011122012/123

    ()217.351166.909233.562219.218254.645227.149238.996240.48223.958241.9243.712238.126253.329212.263272.252273.113278.696251.654281.24257.812246.1270.262246.759239.513210.799234.052263.437

    ()75.732.650.147.757.534.138.526.617.521.921.81916.627.216.624.69.410.817.77.29.911.71.30.6-16.810.3-3.2

  • *321.58%%

    Chart1

    303.6971.81

    274.136.25

    343.943.66

    339.635.15

    337.2934.03

    342.222.48

    338.318.23

    348.823.3

    359.816.68

    356.512.26

    357.414.34

    365.6815.27

    344.5913.47

    288.75.33

    389.913.37

    374.110.14

    376.211.53

    373.69.18

    375.911.12

    367.15.26

    369.62.72

    372.064.38

    366.52.54

    363.05-0.72

    314.8-8.63

    339.5317.6

    383.7-1.58

    Sheet1

    2010/1234567891011122011/1234567891011122012/123

    303.69274.1343.9339.6337.29342.2338.3348.8359.8356.5357.4365.68344.59288.7389.9374.1376.2373.6375.9367.1369.6372.06366.5363.05314.8339.53383.7

    71.8136.2543.6635.1534.0322.4818.2323.316.6812.2614.3415.2713.475.3313.3710.1411.539.1811.125.262.724.382.54-0.72-8.6317.6-1.58

  • *%1.875%0.508%2.896%1.2695%426201020112012

  • *GDPCPI4210%41216.9%30%35%515515156104121040.48CPI0.83CPI 2.29%4303.38% GDPCPI3270.4%62

  • *%( );( )

    2012

    (2012.4)3.38(3.85)(2012.4)3.48(3.96)(2012.4)3.55(4.07)(2011.12)3.81(2012.3) 3.88(3.93)(2012.3)3.73(3.7)(2012.4)3.6(5.0)(2012.4)3.8(3.8)(2012.4)3.4(4.1)

  • *

  • *27.535.225.2%25.7%%

  • *

    Chart1

    -476892789312376-7420

    5733223651065238750

    513457287-1426844364

    528393028379783919

    1458152729410081183190

    1525013165215513200006

    OBU

    Sheet1

    20062007200820092010201120102011

    -47,6895,73351,34552,839145,815152,5011,831.90

    OBU27,89322,3657,28730,28327,29431,6520.34%

    12,37610,652-14,26879710,08115,5135.39%

    000003411679

    -7,42038,75044,36483,919183,190200,0060.87

    49.8958.8364.8269.4890.5118.98

  • *%

  • *()()

    Chart1

    0.0380.3034

    0.02240.4989

    0.02130.5883

    0.01840.6482

    0.01540.6948

    0.01150.905

    0.00611.5807

    0.00432.5183

    Sheet1

    200420052006200720092009201020112012/2

    5907370536613281285221491,679

    3.80%2.24%2.13%1.84%1.54%1.15%0.61%0.43%0.43%

    30.34%49.89%58.83%64.82%69.48%90.50%158.07%251.83%259.02%

  • *

    Chart2

    1111117451

    1281107751

    1361108351

    1411108451

    1511108241

    1711107231

    177287321

    Sheet1

    20051111117451203

    20061281107751222

    20071361108351236

    20081411108451242

    20091511108241249

    20101711107231258

    2011177287321263

    2012/1-3

    Sheet2

    Sheet2

    1111117451

    1281107751

    1361108351

    1411108451

    1511108241

    1711107231

    177287321

    Sheet3

    Sheet3

    1111117451

    1281107751

    1361108351

    1411108451

    1511108241

    1711107231

    177287321

  • *

    Chart1

    0.0030.0481

    -0.003-0.0043

    0.00140.0221

    0.00160.0247

    0.00280.0449

    0.00580.091

    0.00590.0933

    (ROA)

    (ROE)

    Sheet1

    20052006200720082009201020112012/2

    (ROA)0.30%-0.30%0.14%0.16%0.28%0.58%0.59%0.12%

    (ROE)4.81%-0.43%2.21%2.47%4.49%9.10%9.33%1.91%

    45.946.94543.9

  • *

  • *GDP

  • *GDP

    Chart1

    -74.2122435

    387.5129105

    443.6126202

    839.2124811

    1831.9136142

    2000137570

    ()

    GDP()

    Sheet1

    200620072008200920102011

    ()(74)38844483918322000

    GDP()122,435129,105126,202124,811136,142137,570

  • *WEF WEF GCI--The Global Competitiveness Index

    Country/EconomyGCI 2011-2012GCI 2010-2011Financial market developmentSoundness of banksRank ScoreRank Rank ScoreSwitzerland15.74175.3526Singapore25.63315.845Sweden35.612115.2417Finland45.47795.348United States55.434224.8790Germany65.415394.5487Netherlands75.418234.8668Denmark85.409175.0178Japan95.406324.6472United Kingdom105.3912204.94111Hong Kong SAR115.361125.7810Canada125.3310135.201Taiwan135.2613244.8451Korea, Rep.245.0222803.9599China264.9027484.4264

  • *Bloomberg2000-2004 2004-2008 2008-2009 2010 ECFA

  • *

  • *IFRS Basel III

  • 10*

    (%)(%) ()(%)200182.357.48575.9-200281.466.12 (1,045.9)-200380.694.33 504.5 -200479.543.80 1,553.5 30.34200579.772.24 786.4 49.89 200679.41 2.13 (74.2)58.83 200781.56 1.84 387.5 64.82 200878.50 1.54 443.6 69.48 200974.75 1.15 839.2 90.50 201075.15 0.61 1,831.9 158.07 201175.88 0.43 2,000.1 251.83

  • *

    200113,384,6861,093,92351,23784.503.95200213,192,273841,46665,64587.436.8200313,866,734652,02180,82276.469.50200415,077,668657,020109,90771.4911.96200516,251,375772,044111,43874.3610.73200616,872,537820,247104,46151.216.52200717,587,934861,827128,87848.287.22200818,264,902866,998108,45736.044.51200918,413,416502,056110,25541.389.09201019,861,471492,592142,46441.9912.14201121,430,806583,235137,79739.099.24

  • **3003002011

    ()300 (%) ()300 (%) 11496,040.69 36.94 295.63 15.50 56102,754.01 39.52 1,066.72 55.92 289,587.55 3.69 43.91 2.30 2212,429.93 4.78 111.34 5.84 164,628.53 1.78 50.74 2.66 122,299.54 0.88 47.502.49 1210,018.05 3.85 4.3502.30 113,211.13 1.23 35.97 1.89 91,055.87 0.41 12.13 1.21 35,330.19 2.05 48.27 2.53 154.28 0.02 0.51 0.03 1612,607.08 4.85 139.68 7.33 300260,016.85100.001,856.75100.00

  • (Basel ) Basel (3)Basel Basel I *

  • Basel III

  • *Volcker RuleVolcker Rule Volckerprprietary trading

    Volcker Rule

  • *DoddFrank (Volcker Rule) 2012721()Volcker Rule (Fed) 4192Volcker Rule 11 Volcker Rule

    1.2.

  • *%** IMF 2012.04 4301013.38%

    Chart1

    -3.531.72.1

    -5.54.4-0.72

    -4.31.91.4-0.3

    9.210.49.28.2

    -1.810.7243.6

    0.36.33.63.5

    -2.6752.6

    -114.84.92.7

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012**

    Sheet1

    2009-0.7-3.7-3.5-5.5-4.32.89.26.8-0.6-7.8-1.80.3-2.6-1.0

    20105.13.13.04.41.97.310.410.17.54.010.76.37.014.8

    20114.01.61.7-0.71.46.49.27.83.54.34.03.65.04.9

    2012**4.01.92.12.0-0.36.18.27.53.64.13.63.52.62.7

  • *%

    2010413.615.06701.413.34314.711.46568.510.81293.710.70553.710.532011507.416.46833.814.14363.611.80621.210.53312.010.12607.910.3120121-4176.418.30280.215.03102.410.63180.29.67101.5 10.53194.010.41

  • *Taiwan

  • *ECFA()12111

  • *1.

  • *2. 415.61,523.11,693.1

  • *3.%

  • *4. 730.445,526.81908.13

  • *2008630200982011721OBU (DBU)

  • *2

  • * (trade in services)

  • *

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    *

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