117

図 4.5. テイラールールからの逸脱と住宅供給活動

AUT

BEL

FIN

FRA

DEU

GRCIRL

ITA

LUX

NLDPRT

ESP

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

-20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Cumulated deviations from a Taylor rule, 2001Q3-2006Q4

% change in house loans 2003Q1-2006Q4

AUT

BEL

FIN FRA

DEU

GRC

IRL

ITA

NLD

ESP

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

-20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Cumulated deviations from a Taylor rule, 2001Q3-2006Q4

Change in housing investment as % of GDP, 2001Q1-2006Q4

Source: Ahrend et al. (2008).

図 4.6. 転換点前後の資産価格

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

High house price path Middle house price path

Low house price path

% change year on year

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

High stock market path Middle stock market path

Low stock market path

Note: The evolution of real house prices and real stock market indices just prior to and after when the economy enters a

(technical) recession are displayed in the two panels. The middle, high and low paths are the median, upper quintile and

lower quintile of the observations for all OECD countries.

Source: OECD Economic Outlook 86 database.

118

図 4.7. コアインフレ率・住宅価格に調整したコアインフレ率

United States

Calibrated on the period 1965-1985 Calibrated on the period 1985-2005

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Actual

Predicted

% growth year-on-year

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Actual

Predicted

% growth year-on-year

Note: The core inflation adjustment for house price movements is based on the estimates from a Kalman filter (the one

step ahead predicted signal).

Source: OECD Economic Outlook 86 database.

図 5.1. 資本市場の規模

% of GDP

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Euro area UK Japan USA

1990-94 2000-05

Note: The figures are calculated as the sum of stock market capitalisation, private sector credit and private domestic debt

securities issuance as a percentage of GDP.

Source: Hartmann et al. (2007).

119

図 5.2. OECD 諸国の実体経済と金融部門の循環

Unweighted average of OECD countries

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1946

1949

1952

1955

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

Real GDP growth (LHS)

Deviation from trend of the bank asset to GDP ratio (RHS)

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1946

1949

1952

1955

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

Real GDP growth

Change (p.p.) in the bank asset to GDP ratio

Notes: OECD staff calculations based on data provided by Alan M. Taylor (Schularick and Taylor, 2009). The series

plotted are arithmetic averages of individual series of the following countries: Australia, Canada, Switzerland, Germany,

Denmark, Spain, France, UK, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, US. GDP growth is the rate of growth of real GDP,

deviation from trend of the bank asset/GDP ratio is the deviation of the bank asset/GDP ratio from its trend (trend is

computed using the HP filter). The series are 3-year moving averages. Banking assets are defined as total domestic

currency assets of banks and banking institutions.

Source: Schularick and Taylor (2009) and OECD Economic Outlook 86 database.

図 5.3. 銀行部門の順景気循環：ローリングウィンドウによる予測値

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1946 1

957

1949 1

960

1952 1

963

1955 1

966

1958 1

969

1961 1

972

1964 1

975

1967 1

978

1970 1

981

1973 1

984

1976 1

987

1979 1

990

1982 1

993

1985 1

996

1988 1

999

1991 2

002

1994 2

005

1997 2

008

Bank asset to GDP ratio (LHS)

Coefficient estimates (RHS)

Note: Coefficient estimates are displayed only if they are statistically significant. The estimations are performed using

difference GMM. The percentage point change in the bank asset/GDP ratio is the dependent variable and GDP growth

and lagged changes in percentage points of the bank asset to GDP ratio are the independent variables. The data points

for bank asset-to-GDP ratio refer to the end of the period. The bank asset-to-GDP ratio is calculated as the unweighted

average of the ratio of 13 OECD countries.

Source: Schularick and Taylor (2009) and OECD Economic Outlook 86 database.

120

図 5.4. 株式市場の変動性と社債スプレッドの順景気循環的性質

United States, 1999-2010

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

GDP growth (LHS) VIX index (RHS)

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

0

2

4

6

8

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

GDP growth (LHS)

AAA spread (RHS)

BBB spread (RHS)

Notes: The spread is for yields of corporate AAA or BBB 5-7 or 7-10 year bonds over the government bond yield.

The VIX index is a market-based measure of stock-market volatility.Source: OECD Economic Outlook 86 database,

Chicago Board Options Exchange and Datastream.

図 5.5. OECD 諸国の資本バッファー

Capital adequacy ratio, 2007

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

SWE

FRA

PR

T

AU

S

HU

N

ITA

ESP

IRL

BEL

GR

C

CZE

NO

R

PO

L

ISL

CH

E

CA

N

DN

K

KO

R

JAP

GB

R

AU

T

SVK

USA

DEU

NLD

LUX

FIN

TUR

Notes: The figures are not fully comparable because of differences in national regulation.

Source: IMF.

121

図 6.1. 総合的な PMR スコア

2008

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

USA

GB

RC

AN

NLD IS

LD

NK

ESP

JAP

NO

RFI

NA

US

NZL

CH

EH

UN

SWE

DEU

AU

TIT

AB

ELP

RT

FRA

KO

RLU

XC

ZEM

EXTU

RP

OL

OECD Average

Note: Index scale from 0-6 from least to most restrictive. Countries are ranked according to the indicator score on

aggregate.

Source: OECD Product Market Regulation Database.

122

図 6.2. 経常不動産課税

2008, % of GDP

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

BEL

LUX

GR

CC

ZEC

HE

MEX

TUR

AU

TH

UN

NO

RSV

KD

EU FIN

ITA

ESP

PR

TIR

LSW

EK

OR

PO

LD

NK

AU

SIS

LN

ZL JAP

FRA

CA

NU

SAG

BR

Note: Data for Australia, Greece, Mexico and Poland refer to 2007.

Source: OECD Tax Revenue Database.

123

図 7.1. ショックに直面した場合の財政・金融政策に対する安全域

Panel A. Safety margins for fiscal policy Panel B. Safety margins for monetary

policy

Note: The figure shows the distribution of the government deficit and the interest rate following standard shocks either

with a zero initial debt level or one corresponding to 60% of GDP.

124

図 7.2. 価格の硬直性の増大による金融・財政政策に対する安全域

Panel A. Safety margins for fiscal policy Panel B. Safety margins for monetary

policy

125

図 7.3. 労働力供給の弾力性の向上による金融・財政政策に対する安全域

Panel A. Safety margins for fiscal policy Panel B. Safety margins for monetary

policy

126

WORKING PAPERS

The full series of Economics Department Working Papers can be consulted at

www.oecd.org/eco/working_papers/

759. Exports and property prices in France: are they connected?

(April 2010) by Balázs Égert and Rafał Kierzenkowski

758. Further Advancing Pro-Growth Tax and Benefit Reform in the Czech Republic

(April 2010) by Zdeněk Hrdlička, Margaret Morgan, David Prušvic,

William Tompson and Laura Vartia.

757. Advancing structural reforms in OECD countries: Lessons from twenty case

studies

(April 2010) by William Tompson and Thai-Thanh Dang

756. Labour markets and the crisis

(April 2010)

755. Long-term growth and policy challenges in the large emerging economies

(March 2010) by Paul Conway, Sean Dougherty and Artur Radziwill

754. Explaining household saving rates in G7 countries: implications for Germany

(February 2010) by Felix Hüfner and Isabell Koske

753. Monetary policy responses to the crisis and exit strategies

(February 2010) by Makoto Minegishi and Boris Cournède

752. Sub-central governments and the economic crisis: impact and policy responses

(February 2010) by Hansjörg Blöchliger, Claire Charbit, José Maria Pinero

Campos and Camila Vammalle

751. Improving China’s health care system

(January 2010) by Richard Herd, Yu-Wei Hu and Vincent Koen

127

750. Providing greater old-age security in China

(January 2010) by Richard Herd, Yu-Wei Hu and Vincent Koen

749. China’s labour market in transition: job creation, migration and regulation

(January 2010) by Richard Herd, Vincent Koen and Anders Reutersward

748. A pause in the growth of inequality in China?

(January 2010) by Richard Herd

747. China’s financial sector reforms

(January 2010) by Richard Herd, Charles Pigott and Sam Hill

746. A bird’s eye view of OECD housing markets

(January 2010) by Christophe André

128

745. The automobile industry in and beyond the crisis

(January 2010) by David Haugh, Annabelle Mourougane and Olivier Chatal

744 Towards a flexible exchange rate policy in Russia

(December 2009) by Roland Beck and Geoff Barnard

743. Fiscal federalism in Belgium: Challenges and possible improvements

(December 2009) by Willi Leibfritz

742. Product Market Regulation in Russia

(December 2009) by Paul Conway, Tatiana Lysenko and Geoff Barnard

741. How to reform the Belgian tax system to enhance economic growth

(December 2009) by Jens Høj

740. Improving the policy framework in Japan to address climate change

(December 2009) by Randall S. Jones and Byungseo Yoo

739. Health-care reform in Japan: controlling costs, improving quality and ensuring

equity

(December 2009) by Randall S. Jones

738. Financial stability: overcoming the crisis and improving the efficiency of the

banking sector in Japan

(December 2009) by Randall S. Jones and Masahiko Tsutsumi

737. Recent Oil Price Movements– Forces and Policy Issues

(December 2009) by Eckhard Wurzel, Luke Willard and Patrice Ollivaud

736. Promoting competition to strengthen economic growth in Belgium

(December 2009) by Tomasz Koźluk

735. Prudential Regulation And Competition In Financial Markets

(November 2009) by Rüdiger Ahrend, Jens Arnold and Fabrice Murtin

734. Keeping slovénian public finances on a sustainable path

129

(October 2009) Pierre Beynet and Willi Leibfritz

733. Pedal to the metal: Structural reforms to boost long-term growth in Mexico and

spur recovery from the crisis

(October 2009) David Haugh and Agustin Redonda

732. Achieving higher performance: Enhancing spending efficiency in health and

education in Mexico

(October 2009) Cyrille Schwellnus

731. Russia’s long and winding road to a more efficient and resilient banking sector

(October 2009) Geoff Barnard

730. How do institutions affect structural unemployment in times of crises?

(October 2009) Davide Furceri and Annabelle Mourougane