台灣貨櫃海運業競爭策略之研究 - cmr.ba.ouhk...

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2013 5 月第十六卷二期 • Vol. 16, No. 2, May 2013 台灣貨櫃海運業競爭策略之研究 陳俊安 鍾子程 王毓翎 http://cmr.ba.ouhk.edu.hk

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  • 2013 5 Vol. 16, No. 2, May 2013

    http://cmr.ba.ouhk.edu.hk

  • 1

    (DEMATEL) (ANP)

    (MMDE)

    DEMATEL

    ANP

    DEMATEL ANP

  • 2

    DEMATEL ANP

  • 3

    (2000)(1)(2)(3)

    (4)(5)

    (6)(7)(8)

    (9)

    (strategy)

    (2003)

    Richard Rumelt (1980)

    ()

    Michael E. Porter (1980)

    1.

    2.

    3.

    4.

    5.

  • 4

    (2000)

    (

    ) (

    )

    Michael E. Porter (1980) (

    )

    (2006)

    1.

    2.

    RFID (Radio Frequency Identification

    )

    3. (2008 11 )

    (strategic alliance)

  • 5

    (

    )

    (1997)

    -

    ()

    1

  • 6

    (A)(B)

    (C)(D)

    (a1)

    (a1)(b1)(b2)

    (c1)(c2)(d1)

    (d2)(d3)

    ()

    DEMATEL

    ANP

    () DEMATEL

    1.

    (0~4012

    34)

    2. (Direct Relation Matrix)(2008)

    n

    nn nnZ

    ija ijZ0

    Z

    nnnjn

    iniji

    nj

    aaa

    aaa

    aaa

    Z

    1

    1

    1111

  • 7

    3. (Liou et al, 2007)2

    n

    i

    ij

    n

    jnj

    ijni

    yyS11

    11max,maxmax ZS

    S

    ZX X

    4. (Direct/Indirect Matrix)(2008)X

    X=[ij]nnI Kk

    XX

    2lim

    10 ijx 0lim

    k

    kX T

    1122 limlimlim

    XIX

    XI

    XIXXXXIXXXXT

    k

    k

    K

    k

    k

    k

    5. (Causal Diagram)(2008) T=[tij]tij(ij=1,2,...,n)

    TDi nitDn

    j

    iji ,,2,1,1

    Rj

    njtRn

    i

    ijj ,,2,1,1

    Dii

    Rjj

    (D+R) (Prominence)DiRi

    (D-R) (Relation)

    DiRi(Di-Ri)

    (Di-Ri)

    (Di+RiDi-Ri) (D+R) (D-R)

    MMDEDEMATEL

    MMDE (entropy)

  • 8

    () MMDE

    1. nnT

    {T}={t11t12...t21t22...tnn}{T}

    T

    (tijxixj)=(,,)T*

    2. (Dispatch-Node set)T*

    (Dispatch-Node set),TDiTDi={xi}={x1x2

    xn}

    3. (mean de-entropy)TDit

    TtDiHDTt

    DiHDHtDi

    Dit

    Di

    tDi

    tTN

    HMDE

    nD

    n pppHnnn

    HH ,,,1

    ,,1

    ,1

    21

    iin pppppH lg,,, 21

    ( 11

    n

    i

    ip 00lg iii pifpp lge)N(X)

    {X}

    4.

    TtDiTmax

    Di

    5. (Receive-Node set)T*

    24

    TRe

    TmaxRe

    6. TmaxDiT*u

    TmaxReT*uTThTTh

    TThTmaxDiTmax

    Re Remaxmax TGTGTG DiTh *1 TCTC Th C(X){X}

    (Scale) (Pairwise Comparison)

  • 9

    (2005)ANPAHP

    (Ratio Scales)

    () ANP

    1. (Criteria)

    (sub-criteria)

    ()

    ()

    (DEMATEL)

    2. (Pairwise Comparison Matrix)

    (1)

    Saaty1~9

    ANP

    A=[aij]nn=

    1

    1

    1

    21

    221

    112

    nn

    n

    n

    aa

    aa

    aa

    ij

    ija

    a1

    nji ,,3,2,1,

    AB3

    3CA6

    6BCBC

    77

    nn

    (2)

    ijij WAW max ijW max

    A

  • 10

    (3)aijijajkj

    kaikik

    aik=aijajkmaxSaaty

    ..

    ....

    IR

    ICRC (Consistency Ratio, C.R.)

    (C.I.) 1

    .. max

    n

    nIC

    (C.R.)C.I.

    R.I...

    ....

    IR

    ICRC maxn

    C.I. (Consistency Index)R.I. (Random

    Index)n

    R.I.

    3.

    (Unweighted Supermatrix)

    (Weighted Supermatrix)

    4. (Super Matrix)

    nmnmmnn

    m

    eeeeeeeee

    CCC

    212222111211

    21

    21

    mmmm

    m

    m

    mn

    m

    m

    n

    n

    m

    WWW

    WWW

    WWW

    e

    e

    e

    e

    e

    e

    e

    e

    e

    C

    C

    C

    W

    m

    21

    22221

    11211

    2

    1

    2

    22

    21

    1

    12

    11

    2

    1

    2

    1

  • 11

    mC m mne mn

    njnnn

    nj

    nj

    jijiji

    jijiji

    jijiji

    ij

    www

    www

    www

    W

    12111

    22212

    12111

    ji

    ji

    0ijW ANP

    (Unweighted Supermatrix)

    (Weighted Supermatrix) (Limit Supermatrix)

    (Weighted Supermatrix)

    ( kk

    W

    lim W)

    (Limited Supermatrix)

    5.

    5

    10

    10 100%

    60% 40% 40-50 4 30-40 6

    10 4 1

    2 3 21 30

    3 11 20 5 6 10 3

  • 12

    (DEMATEL)

    DEMATEL

    MATLAB

    ()

    Z

    3

    3

    ()

    Z

    n

    i

    ij

    n

    jnj

    ijni

    yyS11

    11max,maxmax =0+2.6+3+2.7=8.3Z

    SS

    ZX X

    1

    A B C D

    A 0 2.5 3 2.6 8.1

    B 2.6 0 2.6 2.8 8

    C 3 2.7 0 2.4 8.1

    D 2.7 3 2.6 0 8.3

    8.3 8.2 8.2 7.8 ---

    2

    A B C D

    A 0 0.3012 0.3614 0.3133

    B 0.3133 0 0.3133 0.3373

    C 0.3614 0.3253 0 0.2892

    D 0.3253 0.3614 0.3133 0

    :()

  • 13

    () (/)

    X 0lim

    k

    kX (0)

    12lim

    XIXXXXT kk

    (TX

    I)T( 1 XIXT )

    (T)

    3

    A B C D

    A 11.4761 11.5875 11.6426 11.1838

    B 11.6094 11.2530 11.5112 11.0987

    C 11.7359 11.5950 11.3716 11.1652

    D 11.9310 11.8304 11.8235 11.1472

    :()

    ()

    1.

    {T}={11.9310,11.4761,11.5875,... ,11.1472}{T}

    T

    T*

    2. (Dispatch-Node set)T*

    (Dispatch-Node set), TDi

    TDi

    ={ xi }={4,4,4,3,1,2,3,1,2,1,3,2,1,3,4,2}

    3. (mean de-entropy)

    Dit

    Di

    tDi

    tTN

    HMDE

    4. 0.0196

    ={4,4,4,3}={3,4}

    5. (Receive-Node set)

    24

    TRe

    ={1,2,3,1,3,1,2,2,3,1,3,2,4,4,4,4}0.0291

    TmaxRe

    ={1,2,3,1,3,1}={1,2,3}

  • 14

    () T*TmaxDiu

    ={(11.9310,4,1)(11.7359,3,1 )}(

    T*)TmaxReu={(11.9310,4,1)

    (11.8304, 4,2)(11.8235,4,3)}(

    T*)TTh={11.9310,4,1)(11.8235,4,3)(11.8304,4,2)

    (11.7359,3,1 )}TTh11.7359

    ()

    T (D)

    (R)tij (i,j =1,2,...,n) T

    nitDn

    j

    iji ,,2,1,1

    njtRn

    i

    ijj ,,2,1,1

    DR

    =D+R=D-R

    4

    D 46.73 A 46.75 A 92.64 D 2.14

    A 45.89 C 46.35 C 92.22 C -0.48

    C 45.87 B 46.27 B 91.74 B -0.80

    B 45.47 D 44.59 D 91.33 A -0.86

    ()

    T DRD+R D-R

    D R

    D+R () D-R

    () X ()

    Y ()

    (D+R) (D-

    R) 11.736

  • 15

    ()

    Z

    ()

    Z

    n

    i

    ij

    n

    jnj

    ijni

    yyS11

    11max,maxmax =3+3.8+2.6+2.8+0+3.1+2.7+3.5+2.5=24

    ZSS

    ZX X

    ()

    X 0lim

    k

    kX (0)

    12lim

    XIXXXXT kk

    (TX

    I)T( 1 XIXT )

    ()

    1. {T}={1.114,1.101,,.59

    TT*

    2. (Dispatch-Node set)T*

    (Dispatch-Node set), TDi

    3. (mean de-entropy)

    Dit

    Di

    tDi

    tTN

    HMDE

    4. 0.0291

    ={5,2,2,5,6,5}={2,5,6}

  • 16

    5. (Receive-Node set)

    0.01961

    TmaxRe

    ={2,5,6,6}={2,5,6}

    6. T*TmaxReu={(1.114,5,2)

    (1.1011, 2, 5)(1.08,6,5)}(

    T*)TmaxReu={(1.114,5,2)(1.1011, 2,5)

    (1.093, 2, 6) }(T*)

    TTh={(1.114,5,2)(1.1011, 2, 5)(1.093, 2, 6)(1.08,6,5)}TTh

    1.08

    ()

    T (D)

    (R)tij (i,j =1,2,...,n) T

    nitDn

    j

    iji ,,2,1,1

    njtRn

    i

    ijj ,,2,1,1

    DR

    =D+R=D-R

    5

    5

    c1 9.08 c1 8.82 c1 17.90 b2 0.33

    a2 8.97 a2 8.74 a2 17.71 b1 0.32

    c2 8.74 c2 8.69 c2 17.43 c1 0.26

    b1 8.47 d2 8.51 b1 16.62 a2 0.23

    d1 8.04 b1 8.15 d2 16.27 c2 0.05

    b2 7.78 d1 8.11 d1 16.15 d1 -0.07

    d2 7.76 a1 7.91 a1 15.52 d3 -0.07

    a1 7.61 b2 7.45 b2 15.23 a1 -0.30

    d3 6.89 d3 6.96 d3 13.85 d2 -0.75

    ()

    T DRD+R D-

    R D R

    D+R () D-R

    () X (

    ) Y ()

  • 17

    (D+R)

    (D-R) 1.08

    (ANP)

    Saaty (1994) (AHP) 6 :

    6 AHP

    1

    3

    5

    7

    9

    2,4,6,8

    : Saaty (1994)

    ()

    ANP Saaty

    DEMATEL 7

    7 ANP

    1. d1 A

    d1 a1 a2

    a1 1 1/1.09905

    a2 1.09905 1

    2. d2 A

    d2 a1 a2

    a1 1 1/1.549919

    a2 1.549919 1

  • 18

    3. d3 A

    d3 a1 a2

    a1 1 1/1.873699

    a2 1.873699 1

    4. d1 B

    d1 b1 b2

    b1 1 3.09496

    b2 1/3.09496 1

    5. d2 B

    d2 b1 b1

    b1 1 1.217271

    b1 1/1.217271 1

    6. d3 B

    d3 b1 b1

    b1 1 1/1.29403

    b1 1.29403 1

    7. d1 C

    d1 c1 c2

    c1 1 1/1.018399

    c2 1.018399 1

    8. d2 C

    d2 c1 c2

    c1 1 1/1.305678

    c2 1.305678 1

    9. d3 C

    d3 c1 c2

    c1 1 1/1.227681

    c2 1.227681 1

    10. c1 A

    c1 a1 a2

    a1 1 1/4.042823

    a2 4.042823 1

    11. c2 A

    c2 a1 a2

    a1 1 1/1.299324

    a2 1.299324 1

  • 19

    ()

    8

    8 ANP

    1. d1 A

    d1 a1 a2

    a1 1 1/1.09905 0.47642

    a2 1.09905 1 0.52358

    2. d2 A

    d2 a1 a2

    a1 1 1/1.549919 0.39217

    a2 1.549919 1 0.60783

    3. d3 A

    d3 a1 a2

    a1 1 1/1.873699 0.34798

    a2 1.873699 1 0.65202

    4. d1 B

    d1 b1 b2

    b1 1 3.09496 0.75580

    b2 1/3.09496 1 0.24420

    5. d2 B

    d2 b1 b2

    b1 1 1.217271 0.54900

    b2 1/1.217271 1 0.45100

    6. d3 B

    d3 b1 b2

    b1 1 1/1.29403 0.56408

    b2 1.29403 1 0.43592

  • 20

    7. d1 C

    d1 b1 b2

    b1 1 1/1.018399 0.50456

    b2 1.018399 1 0.49544

    8. d2 C

    d2 b1 b2

    b1 1 1/1.305678 0,56629

    b2 1.305678 1 0.43371

    9. d3 C

    d3 b1 b2

    b1 1 1/1.227681 0.55111

    b2 1.227681 1 0.44889

    10. c1 A

    c1 a1 a2

    a1 1 1/4.042823 0.19833

    a2 4.042823 1 0.80167

    11. c2 A

    c2 a1 a2

    a1 1 1/1.299324 0.43490

    a2 1.299324 1 0.56510

    ()

    ( 2 ) ( 2 ) (

    2 ) ( 3 ) 3

    2

    CR =0.00000.1

    ()

    DEMATELSuper Decision

    Saaty

    ANP

    Super Decision

  • 21

    9 ANP

    a1 a2 b1 b2 c1 c2 d1 d2 d3

    a1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.198 0.435 0.476 0.392 0.348

    a2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.802 0.565 0.524 0.608 0.652

    b1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.756 0.550 0.564

    b2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.244 0.450 0.435

    c1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.505 0.566 0.551

    c2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.495 0.434 0.449

    d1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

    d2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

    d3 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

    ()

    10 ANP

    a1 a2 b1 b2 c1 c2 d1 d2 d3

    a1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.198 0.435 0.159 0.131 0.116

    a2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.802 0.565 0.175 0.203 0.214

    b1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.252 0.183 0.188

    b2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.082 0.151 0.145

    c1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.168 0.189 0.183

    c2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.165 0.145 0.150

    d1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

    d2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

    d3 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

    ()

    Super DecisionANP

    :(a2)(0.211)

    (b2)(0.208)(c2)(0.180)(c1)(0.153)

    (b1)(0.126)(a1)(0.122)

    (d1)(0.000)(d2)(0.000)

    (d3)(0.000)

    (a2)(0.211)(b2)(0.208)(c2)

    (0.180)(c1)(0.153)

  • 22

    () (DEMATEL)

    DEMATEL(A)

    DEMATELDR ()

    (c1)

    () (ANP)

    ANP

    (a2)(b2)

    (c2)

    () (DEMATEL)(ANP)

    DEMATELDR () ANP

    (a2)(c2)

  • 23

    DEMATELD-R () ANP

    (b2)(a2)

    ()

    1.

    2.

    3.

  • 24

    2003-

    2005 ANP DEMATEL

    2008-

    MOD

    1997

    2006

    2000

    Liou, J. J. H., Tzeng, G. H., & Chang, H. C. (2007). Airline safety measurement

    using a hybrid model. Journal of Air Transport Management, 13(4), 243249.

    Porter, M. E. (1980). Competitive Strategy, New York, NY: Free Press.

    Rumelt, R. P. (1980). The evaluation of business strategy. In Glueck, W. F.,

    Business Policy and Strategic Management (3rd Ed.). New York, NY: McGraw

    Hill.

    Saaty, T. L. (1994). Fundamentals of decision making and priority theory: The

    analytic hierarchy process. Pittsburgh, PA: RWS.