vs

-

-

1981-2010

1 (CO2 )

/

2 (CH4)

3 (N2O)

(c) Ian Britton - FreeFoto.com (c) Ian Britton - FreeFoto.com

http://www.pbase.com/caveman_lee/teanautuataperehttp://www.pbase.com/caveman_lee/teanautuatapere

= -18 oC

Atmospheric greenhouse gases act like a blanket keeping the earth surface warm.

14-15

2013

CO2 396 ppm +42%

CH4 1824 ppb +153%

N2O 326 ppb +21%

Source: WMO, http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/news/documents/400ppm.final.pdf

80

801750-2011CO240%30%

?

188020120.85C

1850

1980 2012

Source: NASA

301450

1-3

4-6

10-12

7-9

1979-2012

- (Muir Glacier, Alaska's Glacier Bay)

1941813 2004831

1941 2004800

:

:

2003-2012

19

:1. 2.

source: Climate Commission, Australia

?

2011 2012721boston.com bloomberg.com

20127

matome.naver.jp

Source : Bureau of Meteorology

2012/2013

2013

Source: Telegraph, UK Source: Associated Press

2014

:

?

?

1991

: US Geological Survey

2020

50

20

(: IPCC, 2007)

-

Source: Japan Meteorological Agency

!

2046128

(RCPs) 4 :

RCP2.6 (), RCP4.5 () RCP6.0 (), RCP8.5 ()

? ()

RCP2.6

RCP 8.5

214 oC

2oC

,4

2045-2065 2081-2100

RCP2.6 0.17 - 0.32 0.26 - 0.55

RCP4.5 0.19 - 0.33 0.32 - 0.63

RCP6.0 0.18 - 0.32 0.33 - 0.63

RCP8.5 0.22 - 0.38 0.45 - 0.82

?

, 2081-2100

, 2081-2100

1883

1884

1908

1913

(1885-2014)

100 1.2 oC

+

(10-5)

: 19.1 oC (1981-201025)

(4-10)

: 27.7 oC (1981-201025)

2014

Rank

Mean Temperature of June

Year

1 29.0 oC 2014

2 28.9 oC 1999

3 28.8 oC 2002

3 28.8 oC 1996

Rank

Mean Temperature of July

Year

1 29.8 oC 2014

2 29.7 oC 1967

3 29.6 oC 2007

3 29.6 oC 2003

Rank

Mean Temperature of

September

Year

1 29.0 oC 2014

1 29.0 oC 2008

1 29.0 oC 1969

4 28.9 oC 1992

Rank

Mean Temperature of

June to August

Year

1 29.3 oC 2014

2 29.0 oC 2011

2 29.0 oC 1983

4 28.9 oC 2009

2015

1900

2000

4oC 6 163

35oC 32 4.5

25

2091-2100 1986-2005 23.3 3 6

(1885-2014)

1997 (3343)

1963 (901)

1900 2000

100mm

37 18

150mm

32 14

200mm

41 21

(18852014)

200867

(Source : GEO, CEDD)

145.5 - 307.1 -

200867

(: WiNG)

(1.8)(Source : GEO, CEDD)

211986-2005180

...

- 1289; - 3168

1885 - 2005 2 3

2006 - 2100 2 12

()()

1980-1999

2090-2099

( 1) 104 77

( 100) 3.5 5.3

/ (1954-2014)

(1947)

/

()

() ()

() ()

() ()

()

1 1962 3.96 1.77 5.03 3.2

2 1954 3.18 1.68 - -

3 1949 2.90 1.49 - -

3 1964 3.14 1.49 3.54 2.96

5 1979 2.78 1.45 4.33 3.23

6 2008 3.53 1.43 3.77 1.77

()

() ()

() ()

() ()

()

1906 3.35 1.83 - 6.10 (?)

1937 4.05 1.98 6.25 3.81

1962

Source: ISD

2081-2100 1986-2005 0.63 1.07

21 1.07

0.146

()

#()

(2046-2065)

0.53

(2081-2100)

1.07

1 2.7 3.2 3.8

2 2.9 3.4 4.0

5 3.1 3.6 4.2

10 3.3 3.8 4.4

20 3.4 3.9 4.5

50 3.5 4.0 4.6

(WMO)

(IPCC)

(UNEP)

1990 (UNFCCC)

(Kyoto Protocol)

1995

2001

2007

2013/14

IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

WMOUNEP1988

1990199520012007

(WGI)(AR5)20139

2014 11

?

2008

:?

11kWh 11kW

= 10001 (kilo-Watt-hour, kWh)