國際觀光客與商務客來台之經濟影響評估 以日本客 及...
TRANSCRIPT
-
(WTO)
(CGE) ORANI 20082009
()
CGE ORANI
C2-63
-
(World Tourism Organization WTO)2000
8
World Tourism and Travel
Council WTTC
2010 GDP 11.6%
World Tourism and Travel Council WTTC
2008 197
GDP 4.7% 54 7
5.2%
( 1) 96
164 8,507 44.36%
() 98 8,614 26.61%
116 6,380 31.39%
2008/12/15
C2-64
-
1 96
()
737,638 318,098 110,644
87,597 71,663 206,028
823,272 598,853
96
Tour Taiwan Years 2008-20092008-2009
2008
-
(CGE)20082009
(2003)
(2003)
C2-65
-
(2004)
ORANI Melbourn
(Input-Output
Tables)
CGE
CGE
() CGE
(general equilibrium theorem)
(neo-classical school) Walras Walras Law
1930 Leontief ( IO)
IO
1950 Arrow and Debreu (1954)
1960 Johansen (1960) CGE
Scarf (1967) Scarf (Scarfs algorithm)
CGE
CGE Johansen 1960
CGE
CGE
CGE
C2-66
-
CGE
() CGE
CGE
Walras
CGE Armington
(intra-industry trade, cross hauling)
CGE
()()
()
C2-67
-
CGE
Walras
ORANI
ORANI Monash P.B. Dixon
IMPACT 1970
ORANI Johansen
(percentage change)
(separability)
(Calibration)
(Closure) GEMPACK
(Multi-step)
(1) (2)
()(3) ()
(4) (5)
C2-68
-
ORANI CGE
1.
2. Armington
3.
4.
5.
6.
7. Johansen
ORANI IO IO GNP
ORANI
ORANI
ORANI
2004
161
WTO
C2-69
-
95
96
(161)17
(2005)
-
(161)26
23
2
(161 )
95 96
C2-70
-
3
(161 )
()
()
(2005)-
C2-71
-
96
( 4)
(2005)-
( 5) 96
ORANI
4 96 (%)
39.29 9.26 9.53 11.65 1.06 29.2 100
50.68 13.26 6.51 3.65 2.5 23.4 100
32.52 5.38 8.1 9.51 0.82 43.67 100
40.61 5.47 1.77 1.76 1.12 49.27 100
96
5 (%)
7.3
23.4
2.7
4.6
0.7
14.8
0.2
0.5
0.3
0.1
2
() 9.5
100
(2005)-
C2-72
-
CGE
CGE
CGE CGE
CGE
.
CGE
CGE
ORANI
TAIGEM
(1999)
CGE
(rigidity)
C2-73
-
CGE CGE
-
2008-2009 2008
2015 (2007-2009 )
(CGE) ORANI 96
(2005)
-
1. 2. 3. 4.
2015 (2007-2009 )
96 10 5.
6.
1
C2-74
-
CRESH CRETH
161
ORANI
1
93 161
C2-75
-
6
GDP
GDP0.382%
0.168%0.045%0.033%
GDP0.665%
GDP0.18%
6
0.293 0.131 0.034 0.025 0 0
0.937 0.442 0.111 0.075 1.744 0.199
-0.292 -0.138 -0.029 -0.021 0.162 0.05
0.382 0.168 0.045 0.033 0.665 0.18 GDP
-0.08 -0.035 -0.007 -0.004 0.022 0.023
0.311 0.134 0.032 0.022 -0.211 -0.177
-0.363 -0.163 -0.048 -0.037 -0.256 -0.177
-0.097 -0.05 -0.009 -0.008 0.069 0.021
-0.309 -0.147 -0.032 -0.023 0.092 0.017
C2-76
-
161 (
7 )
13.895%
6.314% 2.731% 1.499% 19.211%
6.333%
7
5.832 1.908 1.539 0.443 9.945 2.456
4.207 1.77 2.731 0.397 19.211 1.43
0.617 0.275 0.097 0.053 0.546 0.115
1.585 0.546 0.298 0.116 1.912 0.331
2.967 1.152 0.249 0.248 2.72 1.24
0.538 0.248 0.126 0.053 0.971 0.235
1.515 0.45 0.178 0.11 1.547 0.6
0.143 0.21 0.072 0.037 0.175 -0.03
0.205 0.09 0.024 0.018 -0.629 -0.148
13.895 6.314 1.815 1.499 16.024 6.333
0.898 0.623 0.087 0.087 0.821 0.734
0.152 0.093 0.019 0.015 -0.243 -0.142
2.064 0.948 0.245 0.206 2.759 0.971
0.097 0.078 0.025 0.029 -5.381 -1.718
1.036 0.105 0.132 0.082 -1.704 0.722
0.205 0.18 0.02 0.069 -0.033 0.055
3.394 0.649 0.315 0.068 5.614 1.273
0.356 0.953 0.039 0.219 0.037 -0.662
0.55 0.124 0.055 0.038 -0.23 -0.125
0.007 0.077 -0.002 0.006 0.341 -0.467
0.673 0.097 0.068 0.023 -0.625 -0.091
0.57 0.175 0.058 0.084 -0.564 -0.001
C2-77
-
0.437693 0.121 0.049 0.022 1.12 -1.747
0.509 0.203 0.054 0.113 -0.474 0.149
0.275 0.099 0.026 0.064 1.125 0.643
-0.103 0.002 -0.01 0.001 2.683 0.496
161 ( 8
)
8
26.163 6.11 5.267 1.385 66.4671 8.2444
4.279 1.771 2.835 0.401 35.3912 2.3902
0.35 0.146 0.07 0.035 0.8994 0.1985
0.45 0.187 0.09 0.045 1.1562 0.2551
2.98 1.141 0.24 0.252 3.2389 1.5327
0.438 0.196 0.123 0.043 1.5599 0.2628
1.746 0.465 0.206 0.107 2.6522 0.6289
0.026 0.105 0.051 0.023 0.6603 0.141
0.784 0.195 0.103 0.052 1.3334 0.2719
8.715 3.758 1.036 0.847 13.7078 5.0662
2.807 1.933 0.249 0.245 3.3432 2.3963
1.496 0.637 0.145 0.047 1.8436 0.7524
3.12 1.345 0.371 0.303 4.9076 1.8138
2.648 1.175 0.434 0.388 5.7808 1.7197
0.05 0.073 0.004 0.007 0.0628 0.0882
0.115 0.449 0.014 0.411 0.6204 0.9461
4.365 0.842 0.407 0.091 5.1218 1.0261
0.191 0.001 0.021 0.001 0.0013 0.0026
0.19
0.167
0.027
0.073
0.021
0.018
0.027
0.073
0.03
0.0809
0.06
0.1618
0.309 0.007 0.032 0.007 0.0074 0.0149
0.286 0.075 0.031 0.075 0.083 0.166
0.25 0.094 0.029 0.094 0.1038 0.2075
C2-78
-
0.369 0.212 0.039 0.212 0.233 0.466
0.158 0.126 0.015 0.126 0.1386 0.2772
0.197 0.009 0.022 0.009 0.0099 0.0197
-0.043 -0.007 0.005 -0.002
-0.146 -0.014 -0.045 -0.006
-0.415 -0.047 -0.139 -0.027
-0.018 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001
-0.082 -0.009 -0.019 -0.006
( 9 )
9
0.880 0.141 0.132 0.030 3.412 0.270
-0.227
-0.191
-0.087
-0.072
-0.024
-0.018
-0.016
-0.013
0.890
0.891
0.247
0.244
-0.190 -0.072 -0.019 -0.013 0.809 0.223
-0.112 -0.043 -0.014 -0.007 0.783 0.233
-0.230 -0.086 -0.019 -0.015 1.121 0.299
-0.098 -0.053 -0.009 -0.009 0.910 0.244
-0.294 -0.108 -0.029 -0.020 1.184 0.327
0.338 0.047 0.052 0.021 1.628 0.396
C2-79
-
-0.298 -0.117 -0.033 -0.023 0.644 0.169
0.674 0.505 0.054 0.059 1.597 0.875
0.320 0.140 0.028 0.003 1.152 0.411
0.434 0.199 0.055 0.049 2.281 0.734
3.156 1.399 0.520 0.465 6.992 2.086
-0.940 -0.057 -0.121 -0.071 2.078 -0.353
-0.211 0.098 -0.022 0.163 1.001 0.617
3.502 0.452 0.312 0.012 10.436 2.450
-0.217 -0.444 -0.024 -0.102 0.843 0.584
-0.578 -0.262 -0.062 -0.042 0.667 0.258
-6.906 -1.283 -0.771 0.892 0.473 0.515
-0.445 -0.174 -0.047 -0.032 0.885 0.250
-0.441 -0.174 -0.047 -0.028 0.924 0.269
-5.505 -3.311 -0.591 1.086 -0.049 1.157
-0.177 -0.054 -0.019 0.035 0.944 0.362
-0.355 -0.085 -0.038 0.060 0.175 2.994
-1.554 -0.454 -0.172 -0.054 -0.927 -0.111
-0.21 -0.022 -0.072 -0.014
-0.04 -0.004 -0.012 -0.003
-0.222 -0.024 -0.075 -0.015
-0.24 -0.026 -0.084 -0.016
-0.038 0.007 -0.022 -0.003
492.253% 23.553%
( 10 )
96
C2-80
-
10
74.726 17.260 15.104 3.926 492.253 26.032 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.824 0.330 0.133 0.072 0.016 -0.068 0.653 0.266 0.111 0.059 0.346 0.035 3.586 1.340 0.274 0.297 3.583 1.780 0.499 0.213 0.117 0.045 0.603 0.025 2.301 0.545 0.264 0.124 2.305 0.452 0.031 0.112 0.054 0.024 0.580 0.114 4.245 1.134 0.531 0.279 2.660 0.540 -1.894 -1.082 -0.390 -0.327 -2.487 -1.335 2.050 1.362 0.178 0.172 1.822 1.512 3.071 1.282 0.288 0.090 3.322 1.514 2.735 1.166 0.321 0.260 3.682 1.401 19.472 8.063 2.831 2.460 23.553 6.908 -2.282 0.127 -0.315 -0.178 3.614 -2.051 0.063 0.725 0.008 0.704 0.425 1.444 1.581 0.468 0.158 0.075 -2.472 -0.759 0.024 -0.811 0.001 -0.195 -1.505 1.952 1.356 -0.022 0.134 0.075 -0.569 0.151 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.410 -0.022 0.041 0.001 -0.033 0.015 0.441 -0.013 0.040 0.118 0.144 0.094 5.417 -0.479 0.534 3.442 -3.355 3.798 0.202 0.133 0.020 0.206 0.214 0.463 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 5.626 2.365 0.562 0.482 -6.130 -1.262
-0.165 -0.019 -0.119 -0.018
-0.027 -0.006 -0.023 -0.005
-1.112 -0.526 -0.335 -0.075
-0.979 -0.154 -0.558 -0.104
-0.221 -0.025 -0.192 -0.033
C2-81
-
GDPGDP0.382%0.168%0.045%0.033%
GDP0.665%
GDP0.18%
GDP 0.665%
1993 374 2007 3886
2020
C2-82
-
(2000)
(1995)
(2003)
31 4 637- 674
(1994) 43 9 1- 5
(2006)
(2008)
(2002)
(2003)
(2002) WTO -
(2003)
(2004)
(2003)
(2006)
(2003)
(2007) -
C2-83
-
(2000)
(2001)
(2004)
(2007) RDF-5
(2005)-
(2008)-
(2008) 3E -
(2005)
95
96
(2005)-
Arrow, K.J., and Debru, G. (1954), Existence of an equilibrium for a competitive
economy, Econometrica, 22, 265-290.
Clare.A.Gunn (1988), Tourism Planning, Taylor & Francis.
C2-84
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Codsi, G., and Pearson, K.R. (1988), GEMPACK: Genaral Purpose Software for
Applied General Equilibium and Other Economic Modelers, Computer Science in
Economics and Management, 1: pp.189-207.
Dixon, P.B., Parmenter, B.R., Sutton, J., and D.P. Vincent, (1982), ORANI: A
Multisectoral Model of the Australian Economy, North-Holland, Armsterdam.
Grado, S.C., Strauss, C.H., and Lord, B.E. (1998), Economic Impacts of Conferences
and Conventions, Journal of Convention and Exhibition Management, 1:1, 19-33.
Johansen, L. (1960), A Multisectoral Model of Economic Growth, Amsterdam,
Noth-Holland Press.
Narayan, Perash Kumer(2003), The Macroeconomic Impact of the IMF
Recommended VAT Policy for the Fiji Economy: Evidence from A CGE Model,
Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies, Nov2003.15(3):226-236.
Serra-Puche, Jaime(1984), A General Equilibrium Model for the Mexican Economy,
Presented at the NBER conference on Applied General Equilibrium Analysis. Ed:
Herbert Scarf and John B. Shoven. NY: Cambridge U. Press.
Schulz, C. N. (1971), Existence, Space and Architecture, N. Y: Praeger Publishers.
C2-85
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An Economic-wide Analysis for Stimulating the
Arriving of International Tourists and Business
Travelers -- focus on the Japanese Tourist and China
Market
Jo-Ping Liang Ching-Pin Hung Duu-Hwa Lee
Abstract
According to the WTO analyzing reporter, Tourism has become the prime resource of earning
foreign exchange in many countries. This article uses a comprehensive computable general equilibrium
model named ORANI to stimulate the short-term economic effects in 1. Japan Tourists, 2. Japan
Business Travelers, 3. China Tourists, 4. China Business Travelers and the long-term effects in 5.China
Tourists and Business Travelers, 6.Japan and China Business Travelers which under the government
policies of Tour Taiwan Year 2008-2009 and Taiwan MICE Industry. Results show that in the
short-term, Japan Tourists have more benefits both in macro and industrial economics ; in the long-term,
China Tourists and Business performs better than the short-term as well as Japan and China Business
Travelers.
Key word: CGE modelORANI modelInternational Tourist
C2-86