02 renminbi monetary system prasad
TRANSCRIPT
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T Rmb Rol th Globl Mot Stm
Eswar Prasad and Lei (Sandy) Ye
Fbu 2012
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T R R G M S
Eswar Prasad and Lei (Sandy) Ye
F 2012
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h e R e n m i n b i s R o l e i n t h e G l o b a l M o n e t a r y S y s t e m
BROOKINGS
II
S D I M
F R D , ,
IMF C D.
Lei (Sandy) Ye - C U.
Eswar Prasad S P P C
U. H B-
I, N CC I E, R
A N B E R-
. H F
About the Authors
Acknowledgments:
A N 2011 F R B S F
A R P-C G E. T S , S-J W
.
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BROOKINGS
III
ExEcutivE Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1. introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2. opEnnESSofthE capitalaccount . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4C C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
D F O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
3. SEquEncingand coSt/BEnEfit tradE-offS rElatEdto capitalaccount liBEralization . . . 8
4. Evaluating chinaon conditionSforattaining gloBalcurrEncyStatuS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
D F M D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16F M D R I F . . . . . . . . . 25
M P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
5. thE rEnminBiS intErnational prESEncE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35C M . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
C-B R S H K . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
T R C R C B W . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
6. implicationSofthE rEnminBiS aScEndancEforthE intErnationalmonEtarySyStEm. . . . 44I R R C-U.S. F F . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
W R K D O I P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
T R SDR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
7. concluSion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Box 2.1 C F C C E R W . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Box 5.1 S C C C C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
appEndixES
a: changESto capitalcontrolSin china, 200410 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
B: rEcEnt dEvElopmEntS pErtainingtothE intErnationaluSEofthE rEnminBi . . . . . . . 59
c: BilatErallocalcurrEncycEntralBankSwap agrEEmEntSwith chinaSincE 2008 . . 67
d: additionSof rEnminBito cEntralBankrESErvESacroSSthE world . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
rEfErEncESand BiBliography. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Contents
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BROOKINGS
Iv
P
.
S
.
T ,
. A C
H K
-
.
T
:
Economic size: A -
, ,
.
C 10
(15
) 9
. I 2011, -
-
GDP .
Opencapitalaccount: T
. C
-
. T
O
, C
. I ,
:
Internationalization: - - -
, ,
.
Capitalaccountconvertibility:
. A -
.
Reservecurrency:
.
C
. C
:
P -
.
E - -
.
A --
H K -
M.
Executive Summary
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h e R e n m i n b i s R o l e i n t h e G l o b a l M o n e t a r y S y s t e m
BROOKINGS
v
,
.
C -
.
G , C -
,
C .
W :
T - j,
,
. T -
,
.
T -
I-
M F S D
R .
A C
-
,
j
-
.
T -
,
.
,
.
Flexible exchange rate: R ,
. C ,
.
Financial market development: A
, -
. C
.
Macroeconomic policies: I
. C
GDP j
.
I -- ,C j :
S
,
-
, / -.
F -
;
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BROOKINGS
1
1. Introduction
C
. O , C
. E
, C
. G C
GDP
,
.
I , -
:
(1) j -
-
, -
; (2)
C ;
(3) -
. T
- : ,
C -
; ,
.1
A -
,
. B
, ,
. G
C ,
-
.2 I ,
C -. T :
Economicsize: A GDP
, , -
.
Opencapitalaccount: R -
,
- . T
1 A C F (2005,2011), E (2011), L D (2011), Y (2011).
2 S, .., C, P S (2009); S (2011). D M (2009) K (2011) .A . (2011) U.S. .
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BROOKINGS
2
W , 2, -
C
j . T
. T -
C
. A
, ,
, C -
. I , -
,
.
I 3,
C
-
/ -. A
. I -
, -
-
. A C
,
- ,
-
. T
-
-
. T j -
, ,
,
(Y 2011).
j .
Flexible exchange rate: R
- ,
. I
.
Financial market development: A
, - ,
. -
, ,
.
Macroeconomicpolicies: I -
, -
, -
.
T -
-
. F ,
S
S GDP
. M, j
, J
U.S. ,
() . S
U.S.
C
. B
.
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BROOKINGS
3
R H K -
, --
H K M
,
--
-
. T
C .
I 6, -
-
, -
U.S. . W
--
C -
. W C
-
U.S.
. W
C
-
,
C
. T j -
.
F,
S D R (SDR) -
,
. W -
-
SDR
.
I 4, -
. A-
,
, . A -
(
)
,
U.S. -
.
-
C ,
. T
. T
-
.
W -
C ,
j
, -
. G C
,
C . W -
, -
,
/
- .
I 5,
.
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BROOKINGS
4
2. Openness of the Capital Account
j . T
2.48,
. T C
2009 1.15,
C
, , .
taBlE 2-1. A Cross-Country Perspective on De
Jure Financial Openness
Country 1990 2000 2009
United States 2.48 2.48 2.48
United Kingdom 2.48 2.48 2.48
Switzerland N.A. 2.48 2.48
Japan 2.48 2.48 2.48
Germany 2.48 2.48 2.48
Brazil 1.84 1.15 0.43
Russia N.A. 0.79 0.17
South Arica 1.84 1.15 1.15
India 1.15 1.15 1.15
China 1.84 1.15 1.15
Note: T -
I M F, A R EA E R. N.A. = .
Source: U C I (2008)
W
-
C ,
j - -
. C j
, , C
. F , C-I
(C I 2008)
C j 1993. S -
I-
M FAnnualReportonExchangeArrangementsandExchangeRestrictions(AREAER).T
.3 B ,
.
Capital Controls
A j -
,
.
2-1 C-I -
1990 ( ), 2000,
2009.4 A
3 O j S (2009) M (2004). T S 2005 C. T M C.
4 T 1.84 () +2.48 (). T G , .
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BROOKINGS
5
(.., )
GDP ( K
. 2009). F 2-1
C 2004 2010. T -
,
$6 -
. T
GDP 1.
figurE 2-1. De Facto Financial Openness in
China, 200410
2010200920082007200620052004
A. Levels of Gross External Positions(in trillions of U.S. dollars)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
LiabilitiesAssets
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010200920082007200620052004
Liabilities
Assets
B. Gross External Positions as a Share of GDP(in percent)
Sources: IMF I F S W EO.
N, C
D ,
C
. I 2007,
-
$50,000 . M ,
-
(.., -
)
. F ,
2009,
. C -
,
. T
Q F-
I I
$1 ,
.
T
j -
,
. I A,
, IMF AREAER -
. T
-
, -
. I ,
-
.
De Facto OpennessA
. A -
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BROOKINGS
6
j , C -
, -
.
P ,
,
C
.
. I ,
C
S-
( 2-2). A GDP,
-
. A , , C
, -
B
I. -
j
,
( 2.1).
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
Euro
Are
aU.S.
U.K.
Japa
nCh
ina
Switz
erland
Russia
Brazil
India
SouthAfric
a
Liabilities
Assets
B. Gross External Positions as a Share of GDP
(in percent)
Euro
Are
aU.S.
U.K.
Japa
nCh
ina
Switz
erlan
d
Russia
Brazil
India
SouthA
frica
A. Levels of Gross External Positions
(in trillions of U.S. dollars)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Liabilities
Assets
figurE 2-2. De Facto Financial Openness across Economies
Sources: IMF I F S W E O.
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BROOKINGS
7
Box2.1: Capital Flows and Chinas Capital Exports to the Rest o the World
C . G
2000 2007 ( A ). F
, $406 2010, C
. O , . G 2009
$184 2010 ( B). S 2000, -
C ( C). F 2000 2010, C $2.8 ,
$845 ( $219
, FDI). I , -
. D , $1.8 ,
- ($1.1 ) FDI .
C ( net) $436 2008 2009
( E). I 2010, $472
$184 , , $406 .
Duringtheperiod2000-2011,Chinaonnetexportedabout$2trillionofnancialcapitaltotherestoftheworld( , C ).
Chinas Gross Capital Flows, 20002011 (in billions o U.S. dollars)
Year A. Gross Infows
B. Gross Outfows
(excludingreserves)
C. Reserve Assets
Accumulation
D. Financial
Account Balance
(excludingreserves)
E. Financial Account Balance
(including reserves)
2000 58.0 56.1 10.7 2.0 8.7
2001 41.6 6.7 47.4 34.8 12.6
2002 50.0 17.7 75.2 32.3 42.9
2003 67.6 14.8 137.5 52.8 84.7
2004 104.1 6.7 189.8 110.7 79.1
2005 183.4 86.4 251.0 96.9 154.0
2006 212.1 163.4 284.7 48.6 236.0
2007 262.9 170.8 460.7 92.0 368.6
2008 170.1 126.8 479.6 43.3 436.3
2009 201.5 24.6 400.5 176.9 223.7
2010 405.5 184.1 471.7 221.4 250.2
2011a 393.5 147.7 375.4 245.8 129.6
Notes:G . T .
T Q1 Q3 2011.Source: I M F, InternationalFinancialStatistics.
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BROOKINGS
8
3. Sequencing and Cost/Benefitrade-Offs Related to Capital
Account Liberalization
T
. F
,
, -
. A
-
,
. T
-
( K .
2009). T ,
-
-
(P Rj 2008).
T
.5 A
. T
-
,
. D
,
C
-
(G
P 2007). M,
-
-
, .
T
U.S. , -
J
2005. W ,
J
2008, J 2010.
3-1 -
,
. T C
-
j .
5 S P, R W (2005) C. A Y (2011).
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BROOKINGS
9
F 3-1 C 2000
. T
, 2010
FDI . A
C -
FDI 63
C () ( 3-2).
FDI 72
. FDI
. P
-
,
FDI. N,
FDI
j
,
-
.
A
,
,
. S- ---
-
j
,
-
. C
-
U.S. . T
- ,
C
. R ,
C
, . B
.
-
. O
. B
,
, .
W C
. T
, -
. W .
taBlE 3-1. Exchange Rate Volatility (percentage standard deviation o monthly log changes)
Country 19952011 200511a
Nominal NEER REER Nominal NEER REER
Brazil 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.2 3.1
China 0.3 1.3 2.0 0.4 1.3 1.9
India 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.7
Russiab 6.1 6.1 5.3 2.8 2.1 4.1
South Arica 3.9 3.5 3.4 4.4 3.5 3.5
Sources: I M F, I F S; NEER REER B I S (58 ).
Note: NEER REER (-) , . T - U.S. .
D 2011 O. NEER R J 1995.
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BROOKINGS
10
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Portfolio and Other Investment Inflows
FDI Inflows
Reserve Accumulation
Portfolio and Other Investment Outflows
FDI Outflows
figurE 3-1. Chinas Balance o Payment Flows (in billions o U.S. dollars)
taBlE 3-2. Chinas International Investment Position (in billions o U.S. dollars)
Aspect o Position 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Net position 281 413 640 1,188 1,494 1,511 1,791
A. AssetsTotal 933 1,229 1,690 2,416 2,957 3,457 4,126
1. FDI 53 64 91 116 186 246 311
2. Portolio 92 117 265 285 253 243 257
Equity 0 0 1 20 21 55 63
Debt 92 117 264 265 231 188 194
3. Other investments 166 216 254 468 552 515 644
4. Reserve assets 623 831 1,081 1,547 1,966 2,453 2,914
Fx reserves 610 819 1,066 1,528 1,946 2,399 2,847
B. Liabilities
Total 653 816 1,050 1,228 1,463 1,946 2,3351. FDI 369 472 614 704 916 1,315 1,476
2. Portolio 57 77 121 147 168 190 222
Equity 43 64 106 129 151 175 206
Debt 13 13 14 18 17 15 15
3. Other investments 227 267 315 378 380 442 637
Source: IMF I F S.
Source: IMF I F S
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11
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
Long-term public
Long-term private
Short-term
A. Levels (in billions of U.S. dollars)
0
5
10
15
20
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
Long-term publicLong-term private
Short-term
B. Ratio to GDP (In percent)
figurE 3-2. Evolution o External Debt, China
Sources:W B G D F, IMF W E O.
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12
figurE 3-3. Comparative Perspective on Gross External Debt in 2010
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
SouthAfric
aInd
iaBr
azil
Russia
Chin
a
Switz
erlan
d
Japa
n
Germ
any
U.K.
U.S.
Euro
Are
a
A. Levels of Gross External Positions(in billions of U.S. dollars)
0
100
200
300
400
500
China
Brazil
India
SouthA
frica
Russia
Japa
nU.S.
Euro
Are
a
Germ
any
Switz
erlan
dU.K.
B. Ratio to GDP (in percent)
Sources:W B Q E D D G D F, EIU CD.
Notes:G , , .
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13
$1.8 2010. I ,
C
. B ,
B, I
S A -
,
( 3-3).
T
. T U.S.
,
$2.5 2010. G, J S-
, J -
$3.1 . T
L A A
1980 1990. C
,
GDP 18
1993 j 9 2010 (
3-2). C -
( 3-3),
.
A
$3
.
I, C
-
EuroArea
Germany
Japan
Switzerland
U.K.
U.S.
Brazil
China
India
Russia
SouthAfrica
Net Position -1,649 1,383 3,088 786 -317 -2,471 -698 1,791 -223 16 -65
A. Assets
Total 21,971 8,550 6,919 3,285 14,539 20,315 595 4,126 410 1,173 304
1. FDI 6,277 1,426 831 911 1,675 4,429 175 311 94 369 89
2. Portolio 6,466 2,581 3,346 1,117 3,240 6,694 17 257 2 37 131
Equity 2,550 765 679 441 1,159 4,486 1 63 2 5 123
Debt 3,916 1,817 2,667 676 2,082 2,209 16 194 0 33 8
3. Other invst. 6,791 3,279 1,592 802 5,984 5,050 115 644 17 286 40
4. Resv. assets 790 217 1,097 269 78 489 289 2,914 298 479 44
Fx reserves 207 37 1,036 217 49 52 281 2,847 268 433 35
5. Fin. derivatives 1,648 1,048 53 186 3,563 3,653 0 0 0 2 0
B. Liabilities
Total 23,620 7,167 3,831 2,499 14,857 22,786 1,294 2,335 633 1157 369
1. FDI 4,967 957 215 576 1,076 2,659 473 1,476 198 493 148
2. Portolio 9,852 3,020 1,872 767 3,939 11,709 656 222 171 278 180
Equity 4,243 590 989 672 1,472 3,510 430 206 138 233 138
Debt 5,608 2,430 883 95 2,467 8,199 226 16 33 45 42
3. Other invst. 7,094 2,140 1,680 1,005 6,375 4,876 161 637 264 383 42
4. Fin. derivatives 1,708 1,051 65 150 3,467 3,542 4 0 0 3 0
Source: IMF I F S.
taBlE 3-3. International Investment Positions in 2010 (in billions o U.S. dollars)
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BROOKINGS
14
(L D 2011). H,
-
,
.
R -
(E 2011). I,
.
T
-
j C-
,
(P 2011). A , C
-
, -
. B -
70 ,
j , . I
- -
, .
L
. I,
. L
C
- -
. I -
-
(S 2011; R
U.K.
. T
. I ,
-
, ,
. I
,
GDP 20002007
(, , -
)
U.K. U.S. ( 3-4).
taBlE 3-4. Average Current Account Balances:
2000-2007 (in percent o GDP)
Euro area 0.3Germany 3.2
Japan 3.4
Switzerland 11.7
United Kingdom -2.3
United States -4.9
Source: IMF W E O .
I , C j
.N,
-
-
.
M,
-
.
L
. T -
. B
-
-
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BROOKINGS
15
W , -
.
C
. A
C j -
S .
C , -
,
C . I
,
- ,
, -
.6
A
/ -. Y (2011)
- j C-
,
-
. H -
, -. T
C ,
-
-
.
H 2009). F
, FDI -
.
T
. I -
,
,
C. F , C
$50,000 ,
$5,000. B - -
.
I ,
. T -
C -
. F ,
-
. T,
, ,
. O C -
, ,
. T
.
6 S P (2009) .
-
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h e R e n m i n b i s R o l e i n t h e G l o b a l M o n e t a r y S y s t e m
BROOKINGS
16
4. Evaluating China on Conditions forAttaining Global Currency Status
I
, C
- .
Domestic Financial MarketDevelopment
F
-
.7 H,
-
,
-
. T
:
Breadth: ,
;
Depth: -
; Liquidity: (
).
W , -
-
. I - ,
. O
-
. A
,
.
T, ,
.
F, - -
, j-
-
,
. H -
, ,
(E
F 2010). I C ,
7 S (1991); C F (2007); F (2009); O (2011).
-
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h e R e n m i n b i s R o l e i n t h e G l o b a l M o n e t a r y S y s t e m
BROOKINGS
17
. F 4-1
,
$8.8 M 2011,
. D-
-
, - -
, . 4-1
200710.
I ,
80 . C -
,
186 GDP 2010. T
j
, U.K., -
j ( 4-2).
. T
, , C
- -
(F
2011). T
.
I , C
-
, , -
. O -
C -
,
.
C -,
-
0
5
10
15
20
201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
Equity
Bonds
Domestic Credit
figurE 4-1. Domestic Financing Prole, China (in trillions o U.S. dollars)
Source: ABO, A D B.Notes:T , , .
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BROOKINGS
18
C ,
(H 2007). T
-
. I
-
.
O C
. I 2005,
C . T
. M -
2005,
( 4-2).
B
2008, - GDP, -
( 4-3). B
2009 2010. A
2010, C
-
U.S.,
taBlE 4-1. Use o Loans o Financial
Institutions in China
(in trillions o U.S. dollars)
2007 2008 2009 2010
Total 3.58 4.44 6.23 7.57
Resident/
Household 0.69 0.83 1.20 1.70
Non-fnancial
Corporate2.89 3.60 5.03 5.87
Source:P B C.
Notes: E-- U.S. -- .
T C
. P
. T
0
50
100
150
200
250
U.K.ChinaJapanGermanyIndiaU.S.Brazil
figurE 4-2. Bank Deposits, 2010 (as a ratio to GDP)
Source: CEIC .
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BROOKINGS
19
( 4-3). A -
-
,
.
M, C
. F
,
-
.
N, -
C -
-
. F 4-4
, . N -
2005.
4-4 -
.
B , C
-
. 4-5
taBlE 4-3. Equity Markets across Countries in 2010
Brazil
China
EuroArea
Germany
India
Japan
Russia
Switzerland
SouthAfrica
U.K.
U.S.
Market
capitalization
(bn USD)
1,546 4,763 6,277 1,430 1,616 4,100 1,005 1,229 1,013 3,107 17,139
Stocks traded
(bn USD)
901 8,030 4,656 1,405 1,057 4,280 800 869 340 3,007 30,455
Turnover ratio 0.66 1.64 0.75 1.03 0.76 1.14 0.86 0.76 0.40 1.02 1.89
Source:W B W D I.
Notes: . D C S S S E.
taBlE 4-2. Evolution o Equity Markets in
China: 2000-2011
Marketcapitalization
(billionsof
U.S.
dollars)
Stockstraded
(billionsof
U.S.
dollars)
Turnoverratio
2000 581 722 1.58
2001 524 449 0.81
2002 463 333 0.68
2003 681 477 0.83
2004 640 748 1.13
2005 781 586 0.83
2006 2,426 1,635 1.02
2007 6,226 7,792 1.80
2008 2,794 5,471 1.21
2009 5,008 8,956 2.30
2010 4,763 8,030 1.64
2011 (Nov.) 3,650 - -
Sources:W B W D I, CEIC.
Notes: . D C
S S S E.
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BROOKINGS
20
0
50
100
150
200
250
20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
Stocks traded
Market capitalization
figurE 4-3. Equity Markets in China: 2000-2010 (in percent o GDP)
Source:WB W D I.
Notes:D C S S S E.
taBlE 4-4. Turnover o Government and Corporate Bonds, China
Government Bonds Corporate Bonds
Turnover (billions
U.S. dollars)Turnover Ratio
Turnover (billions
U.S. dollars)Turnover Ratio
2002 11 0.03 0.3 0.04
2003 105 0.25 0.2 0.02
2004 97 0.17 0.6 0.03
2005 214 0.27 40 0.73
2006 273 0.26 78 0.78
2007 623 0.43 114 0.79
2008 1,518 0.79 213 0.91
2009 1,170 0.57 478 1.12
2010 2,299 0.96 776 1.25
Source: ABO, A D B, .
Notes: . . R . C .
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BROOKINGS
21
Q42010
Q42009
Q42008
Q42007
Q42006
Q42005
Q42004
Q42003
Q42002
Q42001
Q42000
Q41999
Q41998
A. Levels (in billions of U.S. dollars)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Financial
Non-financial corporates
Government
Q42010
Q42009
Q42008
Q42007
Q42006
Q42005
Q42004
Q42003
Q42002
Q42001
Q42000
Q41999
Q41998
B. Ratio to GDP (in percent)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
FinancialNon-financial corporates
Government
figurE 4-4. Evolution o Domestic Debt Securities, China
Sources: Q BIS EIUCD, .
Notes:T J 2011. R GDP .
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BROOKINGS
22
C
. T
,
,
- U.S.
. I -
C
G-
J ( J,
).
F 4-5
D 2010. A -
,
B I S
-
(C G F
S 2007, 18). C
$3 ,
2010
. T U.S.
-
,
j . T
C ,
,
$2.4 2010,
$8.9 U.S. T
C 1.0,
14.3 U.S. T -
I
C, I -
.8 B
,
.
taBlE 4-5. Government and Corporate Bond Turnover, 2010: A Cross-Country Perspective
Government Corporate
Amount
outstanding
TurnoverTurnover
ratio
Amount
outstanding
TurnoverTurnover
ratioUS 8,853 126,756 14.3 7,519 3,922 0.5
Euro area 7,926 - - 5,536 - -
Germany 1,400 7,834 5.6 335 - -
China 2,388 2,299 1.0 620 776 1.3
Japan 10,480 12,076 1.2 1,107 76 0.1
India 520 1,155 2.2 191 141 0.7
Sources:S A U S, S I F M A (SIFMA), E C B, B,T F F S A, ABO, CEIC , S E B I, .
Notes: T U.S. . C C, E , G, J . N U.S. I.
8 I , C J 4-4 4-5 . I , . E.., C 2010 $7.2 $2.9 ,. S, ( D 2010) 3.0 4.6,. F J, $46 $0.3 , 4.34 0.28. T 2011 ChinaFinancialStabilityReport 64 ($9.6 ) 2010 (PBC 2011).
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BROOKINGS
23
-
. W -
, C
. T
C
.
T C
-
j (-
4-6). T C
,
. I
,
U.S.,
, J. T U.S.
$25 . I, C
U.K. S,
. T -
C .
C
. O-
(2011) , ,
. I ,
-
. H,
-
SouthAfric
a
Switz
erlan
dIn
dia
Brazil
U.K.
Chin
a
Euro
Are
a
Japa
nU.S.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Financial
Non-financial corporates
Government
figurE 4-5. Domestic Debt Securities, 2010: By Residence and Sector o Issuance
(in trillions o U.S. dollars)
Source: BIS .Notes:T . E E.
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BROOKINGS
24
.
taBlE 4-6. International Bonds and Notes
Outstanding (selected currencies; in
billions o U.S. dollars)
2010 % o total
U.S. dollar 10,503.0 39.2
Euro 11,795.0 44.1
Pound sterling 2,089.0 7.8
Yen 761.0 2.8
Swiss ranc 401.0 1.5
South Arican rand 36.0 0.1
Brazilian real 35.0 0.1
Renminbi 19.0 0.1
Russian rouble 15.1 0.1
Indian rupee 1.5 0.0
Total 26773.0
Source: BIS
Notes: T . BIS.
j. T, -
j
C .
A j - ,
. H,
(..,
) . T
,
U.S. 83 -
2010 ( 4-6). T
96 -. O 0.1
. T
j . F -
, I,
-
,
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
JapanU.S.Euro AreaGermanyU.K.BrazilIndiaSwitzerlandSouth AfricaChinaRussia
Gross debt
Net debt
2010 2016 2010 20162010 20162010 20162010 20162010 20162010 20162010 20162010 2016 2010 20162010 2016
figurE 4-6. General Government Debt as a Share o GDP: Major Advanced, Emerging Market
Economies (in percent)
Source:IMF W E O.
Notes:T , . D C, I, R . 2010 C IMF .
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BROOKINGS
25
. W
-
, C
. E
-
. M,
-
, -
C
.
Financial Market Development Re-lated to International rade andFinancial ransactions
A
-
. A
,
. T -
K (1995) -
,
, .
F 4-7 C
-
. 20089,
$3.2 -
, 54 GDP, 2010. T C
U.S. ( 4-8). F
, C
GDP, U.S.
. 4-7 C
9 ,
A -
C - -
, growth . A ,
, ,
. T
30.3 D 1998 D
2010 ( 4-4 ). T
C
$19 2010, -
2005. T -
, 17
$522 2010. F,
, -
2000.
T C
. N,
- . T
-
, , - (C F
2007). I , -
C
, ,
50 51 5 6 . I
-
, C
.
O, - C
, ,
(L 2009, 2011). B -
. T
. M ,
-
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BROOKINGS
26
0
500
1000
1500
2000
201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
Exports
Imports
A. Levels (in billions of U.S. dollars)
201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
Exports
Imports
B. Ratio to GDP (in percent)
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
figurE 4-7. Chinas Exports and Imports, 1990-2010
Source:W B W D I (WDI).
Notes: .
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BROOKINGS
27
Euro
Are
aU.S.
China
Germ
any
Japa
nU.K.
India
Russia
Switz
erlan
dBr
azil
SouthA
frica
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Exports
Imports
A. Levels (in trillions of U.S. dollars)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Switz
erlan
d
Germ
any
Euro
Are
aU.K.
China
SouthAfric
a
Russia
India
Japa
nU.S.
Brazil
B. Ratio to GDP (in percent)
Exports
Imports
figurE 4-8. Cross-Country Perspective on Trade in 2010
Source: EIU CD .
Notes: E . F - .
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BROOKINGS
28
I ,
-
. T
. U
, E M (2011) ,
2010, C
,
2000. C
,
. T U.S.
-
,
.9
T C -
. T -
-
.
W -
. A -
,
U.S. -
. F
-
. A 2010,
1 (
200 , -
)
( 4-8). T
. T U.S.
, 85 - 2010. T
162 .
U.S. (
).
T C
.
taBlE 4-7. Share o World Trade acrossEconomies in 2010 (in percent)
A. Trade in Goods and Nonactor Services
Exports Imports Total
Trade
Euro Area 26.5 26.2 26.4
United States 9.9 12.9 11.4
China 9.4 8.4 8.9
Germany 8.3 7.5 7.9
Japan 4.7 4.4 4.5
United Kingdom 3.5 4.0 3.8
Russia 2.4 1.8 2.1
India 1.9 2.4 2.1
Switzerland 1.8 1.6 1.7
Brazil 1.3 1.3 1.3
South Arica 0.5 0.6 0.5
B. Trade in Goods
Exports Imports Total
Trade
Euro Area 13.0 12.5 12.8
United States 8.5 13.0 10.7
China 10.5 9.2 9.8
Germany 8.4 7.0 7.7
Japan 5.1 4.6 4.8
United Kingdom 2.7 3.7 3.2
Russia 2.7 1.8 2.2
India 1.5 2.2 1.8
Brazil 1.3 1.3 1.3Switzerland 1.2 1.1 1.2
South Arica 0.5 0.6 0.6
Sources:EIU CD IMF I F S.
9 T N ; . T : G (2), K (7), J (9), I (14), R (19) B (20).
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29
taBlE 4-8. Currency Distribution o Global Foreign Exchange Market Turnover (selected currencies;
in percent)
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
U.S. dollar 86.8 89.9 88.0 85.6 84.9
Euro ... 37.9 37.4 37.0 39.1
Deutsche mark 30.5 ... ... ... ...
Japanese yen 21.7 23.5 20.8 17.2 19.0
Pound sterling 11.0 13.0 16.5 14.9 12.9
Swiss ranc 7.1 6.0 6.0 6.8 6.4
Indian rupeea,b 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9
Russian roublea 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9
Chinese renminbib 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9
South Arican randa, b 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.7
Brazilian reala, b 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.7
All currencies 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0
Source:BISNotes:T 200%, .D j - - (.., - ). () F 1998, . () I BIS 2010.
taBlE 4-9. Geographical Distribution o Global Foreign Exchange Market Turnover (selected
economies; in percent)
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Brazil 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3
China 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4
Germany 4.8 4.7 5.4 4.6 2.4 2.1
Hong Kong 5.6 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.7
India 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.5
Japan 10.3 7.0 9.0 8.0 5.8 6.2
Russia 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.8
South Arica 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3
Switzerland 5.4 4.4 4.5 3.3 5.9 5.2
United Kingdom 29.3 32.6 31.8 32.0 34.6 36.7
United States 16.3 18.3 16.0 19.1 17.4 17.9
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source:BIS.
Notes:D j - (.. - ). E 90 100 . D B 1998 . D C 1998 2004 .
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BROOKINGS
30
,
. B
, C
B I
. O
,
. T
-
,
.
4-11 A
2010 j -
. C
-
. I
,
. L
,
I
, , C -
H K
. I
2010, H K 5
( 4-9). T
-
.
R -
, -
. 4-10
A 2010
, , ,
. S -
24
C,
,
30 . F, C
taBlE 4-10. Currency and Instrument Distribution o Global Foreign Exchange Market Turnover.
(percentage shares o average daily turnover in April 2010)
SpotOutright
orwards
Foreign
exchange
swaps
Currency
swaps
Options
and other
instruments
U.S. dollar 35.2 11.6 47.4 1.1 4.7
Euro 44.4 9.6 39.2 1.1 5.6
Japanese yen 39.7 15.2 36.9 0.9 7.2
Pound sterling 41.6 10.7 43.4 0.5 3.9
Swiss ranc 36.4 7.5 50.2 0.7 5.3
S. Arican rand 31.7 9.9 54.3 0.5 3.6
Russian rouble 50.6 6.3 39.7 0.5 2.9
Indian rupee 35.8 36.1 18.0 0.1 9.9
Brazilian real 31.3 47.3 2.9 1.4 17.1
Chinese renminbi 23.7 41.6 19.9 0.2 14.6
Source: BIS.
Notes:T , , . D j - - - (.., - ).
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BROOKINGS
31
U.S. $93 $86 ,
( 4-12). T
$389 ,
B I.
taBlE 4-12. Over-the-Counter Interest Rate
Derivatives (Gross notional
outstanding in billions o U.S.
dollars as o Oct 21, 2011)
G-14
Dealers
Non-G14
dealersTotal
Euro 28,528 64,675 93,203
U.S. dollar 41,950 45,036 86,986
Japanese yen 8,010 24,490 32,500
Pound sterling 7,775 13,625 21,400
Swiss ranc 1,098 1,995 3,093
S. Arican rand 491 1,430 1,921
Brazilian real 290 704 994
Indian rupee 317 492 809
Chinese renminbi 124 265 389
Russian rouble 47 86 133
Source: -O.
Notes:G-14 14 -O. N-G14 .
. T -
j . I -
I
C,
I
.
T
. I 2005
C -
. F
C F
E S .
S C -
-2000. I
2005, C - .
T -- (OC) -
,
2006. A O-
2011,
OC
taBlE 4-11. Turnover in Global Foreign Exchange Market, April 2010 (daily averages in billions o
U.S. dollars during April 2010)
SpotOutrightorwards
Foreignexchange
swaps
Currencyswaps
Optionssold
Optionsbought
Totaloptions
Totaloreign
exchange
contracts
U.S. dollar 1,188 392 1,600 38 106 101 160 3,378
Euro 691 150 610 18 57 55 87 1,555
Japanese yen 300 115 279 7 35 31 55 755
Pound sterling 213 55 222 3 13 13 20 513
Swiss ranc 92 19 127 2 9 8 13 253
Indian rupee 14 14 7 0 2 2 4 38
Russian rouble 18 2 14 0 1 1 1 36
Chinese renminbi 8 14 7 0 3 4 5 34
S. Arican rand 9 3 16 0 1 1 1 29
Brazilian real 9 13 1 0 3 3 5 27
Source:BIS.
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BROOKINGS
32
H K
O 2010 O 2011. A
M
, , -
.
, -
C -
. A
,
C
-
. T
-
. U,
C -
.
A C
, j
. F ,
/ ,
C
20
2010. U F I A-
,
7
78
. A
,
, , ,
.
T -
C -
. ,
H K -
-
. F-
4-9
0
30
60
90
120
150
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
Renmimbi deposits (billions of U.S dollars)
Number of authorized institutions engaged in Renminbi business
figurE 4-9. Renminbi Deposits in Hong Kong, Jan. 2005 Oct. 2011
Source:M H K M A .
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BROOKINGS
33
j
1970 1980,
(-
4-10). O , , P-
B C -
--
C
. T
, ,
.
taBlE 4-13. Volatility o Annual CPI Ination
(standard deviation)
A. Reserve Currency Economies
1970-
2010
1980-
2010
1990-
2010
2000-
2010
Euro Area - - 0.6 0.5
Germany 2.0 1.6 1.1 0.7
Japan 4.8 1.8 1.3 0.7
Switzerland 2.6 1.9 1.5 0.5
United Kingdom 5.4 3.1 1.8 1.3
United States 3.1 2.3 1.2 1.1
B. Key Emerging Markets
1970-
2010
1980-
2010
1990-
2010
2000-
2010
Brazil 572.1 640.3 668.1 2.6
China - 7.8 6.6 2.1
India 5.8 3.8 4.1 3.6
Russia - - 221.0 3.8
South Arica 4.5 4.9 4.0 3.4
Sources: IMF I F S, G FD.
Notes:E 1999 2010. D , C R 1987-2010 1993-2010,.
Macroeconomic Policies
A
, (O 2011, .3). T
- -
-
. A , C -
j -
. T
,
-
. M, C -
IM F
1.6 2011, -
1 2012. I j
, -
C -
.
D ,
, C
. 4-13
-
, -
. D 20002010,
G M
,
j . T
1 . D ,
3 4 , C
, 2 .
I , C
-
. I,
-
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BROOKINGS
34
(
)
( ). I
-
. T
-
,
-
. T ,
,
j C-
.
-5201020052000199519901985198019751970
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
United States
United Kingdom
Switzerland
Japan
Germany
Euro Area
Figure 4-10. Annual CPI Ination Rates o Reserve Currency Economies (in percent)
Sources: IMF I F S, G F D.
A -
-
. A -
, C j
.
I ,
.
A L (2011) (IMF 2011) -
, -
. I
. M,
-
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BROOKINGS
35
5. he Renminbis International Presence
M
.
C CNY, j M- , CNH
j
(H B
2010).
F 5-1
U.S. -
.10 D
CNH,
2010. T
2010 -
. T
H K
H K
; -
PBC
H K M A;
- .
T
() .
T
,
C -
C
. B 5.1 -
j C
2009
. A
B. S
(F
2011). I ,
.
Currency Markets
T (CNY)
(CNH) . O
C F E
S, P
B C (PBC). T -
H K I M-.
10 I , - - (NDF) . T NDF CNH , M . H, NDF CNY CNY . T - - , CNH .
-
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BROOKINGS
36
Box5.1: Summary o Changes to Capital Controls in China and Major Steps Taken to
Internationalize the RMB, 200911
Changes to Capital Controls
August2009.R -
. E . C , j S
A F E, j .
September2009. L Q F I I $1 -, ,
- - - .
August2010. F , H K M RMB , RMB M ,
j .
Major Steps toward RMB Internationalization
April2009.S C RMB - . C- J 2009.
September2009.M F RMB- H K.
November2009. I M C H S.
March2010. PBC N B B - , .
June2010. RMB 20 .
July2010.B C (H K) RMB .
July2010.H K RMB .
July2010.H H RMB- H K.August2010.F RMB .
August2010.MD RMB H K, .
October2010.O RMB .
October2010. P j .
December2010.T C - 365 67,359.
January2011. R 20 RMB FDI.
January2011.B C RMB N Y C.
August2011.C- RMB .
October2011. B RMB-- .
November2011.JP M A M $1 RMB- Q L P P, RMB--
.
December2011. C J .
-
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BROOKINGS
37
B , -
,
CNH -
CNY
. T
. E
,
2011,
CNH CNY
, .
A
,
H K
. A , C -
-
. S
C . A , ,
-
, -
. T -
.
Cross-Border Renminbi Settlementin Hong Kong
C j
, H
K. I, H K
. I 2004,
H K
. S , , -
-
.
G C ,
,
11/23/11
12/23/11
1/23
/12
10/23/11
9/23
/11
8/23
/11
7/23
/11
6/23
/10
5/23
/10
4/23
/11
3/23
/11
2/23
/11
1/23
/11
12/23/10
11/23/10
10/23/10
9/23
/10
8/23
/10
CNH-USD offshore
CNY-USD onshore
6
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.9
figurE 5-1. Onshore and Ofshore Renminbi-US dollar Exchange Rates
Source: B.
Notes:T - U.S. (CNY) (CNH), 08/23/2010 1/24/2012. CNH . E - .
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BROOKINGS
38
. O -
- -
-
. T
C
-
.
F 5-3
- H
K. D 2011,
$25 ,
2010. C- -
H K,
. I
H K 73
C 2010
-
(E 2011). F 5-2
- -
2010. I
, -
C $93 (
2011). D
2011, -
8 C
.
D
C,
. B ,
C
,
C
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Q3 2011 Q4 2011Q2 2011Q1 2011Q4 2010Q3 2010Q2 2010Q1 2010
Services trade and other current account
Import
Export
Total
figurE 5-2. Cross-Border Renminbi Settlement (in billions o U.S. dollars)
Source:CEIC . IMF Q4 2010.
Notes:T - , , .
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BROOKINGS
39
. A -
, , H
K I M RMB -
M 6, 2006,
, RMB ,
, . F-
5-5
-2010, H K
- . S ,
. T
$550 A 2010,
S-
2011.
A ,
A
. S , .
F,
, -
.
86
2011 (HKMA 2011). T
- -
M
J 23, 2011.
A j - H K,
. P A -
5-4 2007 2010,
, $6
2010. I 2011 ,
$11 ,
2010 -
( B). I
2011,
-
.
A -
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
M1011
M1111
M911
M811
M711
M611
M511
M411
M311
M211
M111
M1210
M1110
M1010
M910
M810
M710
figurE 5-3. Renminbi Remittances: Cross-Border Trade Settlement (in billions o U.S. dollars)
Source:CEIC .
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BROOKINGS
40
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
20112010200920082007
A. Annual
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2011 Q42011 Q32011 Q22011 Q12010 Q42010 Q32010 Q22010 Q1
Other
Industrial
Supranational
Govt-National
Govt Agency
Financial
Bank
B. Quarterly by Industry of Issuance
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Other
Europe
U.S.
Other Asia and Pacific
Supranational
Hong Kong
Mainland China
2011 Q42011 Q32011 Q22011 Q12010 Q42010 Q32010 Q22010 Q1
C. Quarterly by Source Country
0
2
46
8
10
12
figurE 5-4. Renminbi Bond Issuance in Hong Kong (in billions o U.S. dollars)
Sources: CEIC, B .
Notes: G A - C D B. S A D B. A 2010 A 5.44 U.S. , 2010 B C 6.24 U.S. . T . P A H KM A CEIC. P B C B .
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BROOKINGS
41
-
. M , -
A S-
A N + 3 C
M I 2000.12 A C
P, S K, J,
(..,
T) - . U
, C U.S. -
-
.13 I ,
C
.
S,
M C. T
B C 5-4. T, -
- -
-
M H K .11 T
.
he Renminbi Creates Ripples inthe Central Banking World
T PBC
. C
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Sep201
1
Jun201
1
Mar201
1
Dec201
0
Sep201
0
Jun201
0
Mar201
0
Dec200
9
Sep200
9
Jun200
9
Mar200
9
Dec200
8
Sep200
8
Jun200
8
Mar200
8
Dec200
7
Sep200
7
Jun200
7
Mar200
7
Dec200
6
Sep200
6
Jun200
6
Mar200
6
Right scale: Volume (thousands)
Left scale: Value (billions of U.S. dollars)
Source:CEIC
figurE 5-5. Renminbi Clearing Transactions: Hong Kong Interbank Market
11 S, .., R T D C S, FinancialTimes, N 23, 2011.12 T C M I A S A N + 3
- .13 T K J 2002 - . T
P 2003 , , - C RMB P P ( H 2009; I 2011).
-
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BROOKINGS
42
C (RMB) -
U S (USD),
(EUR) B (GBP).14
F, C C
B 0.3
- -
, S 2011 Mon-etaryPolicyReport.
O
( -
D). A -
I M F, -
( ) .
B
, -
, j j -
,
. A
-
.
I D 2011, C J
.15
$300
2010,
$100 . A
-
, --
. M, - ,
. O , -
,
S 2008, C -
,
- . A-
C , ,
. I
,
. T
,
$205 .
T
. T H K
M A (HKMA) -
PBC O 2010,
. A 2010,
HKMA 20
, $3 (HKMA 2010). T PBC
2010 AnnualReport -2010,
803.5 . T PBC -
30 -
-
(PBC 2010, 33). T
10 , $1.5 , H K. N, PBC
- -
.
A ,
,
. M N
, - 2011. T C B
N S 5, 2011,
14 N A I C R E R, C B N P R, S 5, 2011.15 E C F M D C J, P B C, D 25, 2011.
-
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BROOKINGS
43
,
. A,
,
C .
. C
J B I C-
- ,
J C
-
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BROOKINGS
44
6. Implications of the Renminbi sAscendance for the InternationalMonetary System
. T -
- U.S.
.
C
, -
- U.S.--
. D U.S.
I C S (IC) -
U.S. . 6-1 , IC , C 12 -
, ,
2 . T
C
2010 $1.3 ,
. P A 6-2 C
U.S.
- ,
, .16 C
U.S. . F - -, C U.S.
( 6-2,
B), -
. O C
T
, - ,
-
. I , -
. W
.
Implications of a Rising Renminbifor China-U.S. Financial Flows
O
C ,
$3.2 2011 (-
6-1, ). T
50 C GDP,
C
j .
I 2010 -
2011,
$200 ( 6-1, ).T
2011, . T
2011,
16 I, C - U.S. 2009. T, , .
-
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45
U.S.
$100 C . M ,
C
. T
U.S.
.
U.S.
.
T U.S.
C (
) . F 6-3
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2011201020092008200720062005
A. Foreign Exchange Reserve Stocks: Q1 2005 Q4 2011
0
50
100
150
200
250
2011201020092008200720062005
B. Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves: Q1 2005 Q4 2011
-50
figurE 6-1. Chinas Foreign Exchange Reserves (in billions o U.S. dollars)
Sources: IMF I F S, CEIC.
Note: D -- .
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BROOKINGS
46
, . B
-
-
. M,
C (C
P 2010; L 2011). A -
-
, -
. A -
C
. F , -
, -
,
,
.
S -
C
. I ,
. I - -
taBlE 6-1. Chinas Holdings o U.S. Government Debt
March 30, 2000 June 30, 2011
Treasuries Agencies Treasuries Agencies
Total Outstanding Held by the Public 3,519 3,334 9,742 7,185
Total Held by Foreigners 884 261 4,501 1,197
Chinas Holdings 71 20 1,166 332
Chinas Share o Foreign Holdings 8.0% 7.5% 25.9% 27.8%
Chinas Share o Total Outstanding 2.0% 0.6% 12.0% 4.6%
Foreign Share o Total Outstanding 25.1% 7.8% 46.2% 16.7%
Sources: IC S, F R F F, B P D, .
Notes:T U.S. . . I I, D $5.8 M 30, 2000 $14.3 J 30, 2011. - GSE- GSE-
- . C J 30, 2011 J 30,2010 - . T IC S C - , j C . S A S A F E.
C
, -
, U.S.
T j U.S.
-
. T -
C
. H U.S.
U.S. G
C,
. T
, ,
C
U.S. .
W C
I
, -
C
-
. C
-
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47
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Treasury Bonds, Notes
Treasury Bills, Certificates
Corporate Debt
Agency Debt
Equity
201020092008200720062005200420032002
A. China
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Treasury Bonds, NotesTreasury Bills, Certificates
Corporate Debt
Agency Debt
Equity
China
Japa
nU.
K.
Switz
erlan
d
Germ
any
Russ
iaBr
azil
India
Sout
hAfri
ca
B. Cross-Country, June 2010
Figure 6-2. Foreign Portolio Holdings o U.S. Portolio Securities (in billions o U.S. dollars)
Source: U.S. D .
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48
Figure 6-3. U.S. Portolio Holdings o Foreign Securities (in billions o US dollars)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
20102009200820072006200520042003
Short-term Debt
Long-term Debt
Equity
A. China
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
B. Cross-Country, June 2010
U.K.Ja
pan
Switz
erland
Germ
anyBr
azilCh
inaIn
dia
Sout
hAf
ricaRu
ssia
Short-term Debt
Long-term Debt
Equity
Source: U.S. D .
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49
. T,
-
C
.
Will the Renminbi Knock theDollar Off Its Pedestal?
T U.S.
. I
,
7 , 18 25 ,
20002003 ( 6-4). M
-
. S , ,
,
63 2010.
H,
,
( 6-5). T
-
I M F.
C I,
$3.5 . G
, , -
. O ,
-
-U.S. ,
( 6-6).
D , j
U.S. ,
U.S. . A
F R -
- ,
. F
,
. C ,
C I C (CIC),
-
U.S.
. 6-2
CIC
- . T
36 2009 48
2010. A -
,
2010, 13 2009.
Table 6-2. China Investment Corporations
Global Portolio Distribution (in
percent)
Total Holdings
2009 2010
Cash Funds and Other 32 4
Equity 36 48
Fixed Income Securities 26 27
Alternative Investments 6 21
Diversied Fixed-Income Securities
2009 2010
Government Agency Bond 27 9
Government Bond 44 38
Asset-Backed Securities 8 12
Corporate Bond 13 32
Other Structured Products 8 9
Sources: F 2 3 C I C AR, 2010. F 5 C I C AR, 2009.
Notes: CIC $374
2010, ( ) $135 (CIC A R 2010, 9).
A C -
-
,
C
-
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BROOKINGS
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
Swiss franc
Yen
Pound sterling
Euro
Dollar
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
allocated
unallocated
figurE 6-4. Reserve Currency Shares o Total Allocated Reserves (in percent)
figurE 6-5. Shares o Allocated and Unallocated Reserves (in percent)
Source: Q IMF C C F E R (COFER).Note: D 2010 Q3 2011 Q2 .
Source: Q IMF C C F E R (COFER).Note: D 2010 Q3 2011 Q2 .
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010
TotalTo banksTo nonbanks
figurE 6-6. U.S. Dollar Share o Cross-Border Foreign Currency Liabilities o Non-U.S. Banks.
(in percent)
Source:BIS
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BROOKINGS
51
6-7 U.S.
90 GDP, IMF
110 GDP, $21
, 2016. T -
. T -
,
J , -
,
.
F 6-7 -
C U.S.
.
T , U.S.
-
.
R U.S.
, C
- - .
he Renminbi and the SDR
T I M F S D-
R
IMF. I U.S. , ,
J . SDR
IMF
. T SDR
$320 .17 SDR
-
-
. T SDR
. B - SDR
, SDR
(O 2011).
0
5
10
15
20
25
ChinaU.S.
PBC Bonds
Gross Debt
Net Debt
2010 20102016 2016
A. Levels (in trillions of US dollars)
ChinaU.S.
PBC Bonds
Gross Debt
Net Debt
2010 20102016 2016
B. Ratio to GDP (in percent)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
figurE 6-7. Gross and Net General Government
Debt
Sources: IMF W E O, CEIC, .
Notes:D C . 2010 C IMF .
17 T 204 SDR U.S. N 23, 2011, 0.643 SDR $1.
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BROOKINGS
52
C
SDR . T -
P B C (
S A F
E), Y G, IMF
SDR
IMF
BRICS [B, R, I, C S
A -
] -
S D R
(SDR) 2015. B Y
C SDR
.18
SDR 5
,
SDR
. B
,
SDR -
. -
,
SDR .
H,
SDR ,
-
.
T IMF 2010 -
E B
: D -
C -
-
, C
T 2011
SDR. T F
, G
2011,
, -
. A G-20 C Nj M
2011, F N S
: I
-
SDR
, W
j -
C, j
.
T
N 2011 G-20 S C -
: W SDR
j -
. T SDR
-
, IMF . A SDR
, -
. T
. W
SDR
2015, , -
,
IMF , -
. D
, S
: T [ - SDR ], C -
I
.
18 S C FX H P A BRICS C SDR, R, M 5, 2011.
-
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BROOKINGS
53
V
V
--
E -
C
.
T -
,
SDR -
. C
. I
. T IMF
. F , -
, IMF
-
. T
C D,
,
( ) .
SDR
. D
.19 T,
IMF -
,
SDR
.
, SDR
(1) IMF (
IMF )
, (2) -
IMF . T -
2000 ,
SDR . T IMF
(1)
, (2)
. T, -
-
SDR . B , IMF
B P
,
. T SDR -
,
( )
.
I N 2011, IMF -
SDR :20
19 IMF E B C 2010 R SDR V, IMF P I N 10/149.20 IMF E B D C B SDR C B, IMF P I N 11/137. F
, C B SDR C B, I M F, S 2011.
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BROOKINGS
54
7. Conclusion
.
T C
. T
. T U.S. -
-
j (E
F 2010). T
C -
- .
, C
H K . O
,
,
S .
A C - -
,
j
-
. M,
G
, C
-
.W
C . A
j , C
. T
. T - j,
,
-
.T
,
.
I,
-
. T
C J D
2011 C -
, A ,
-
-
C. T ,
,
-
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BROOKINGS
55
T C
-
j
. T
C
,
-
,
C .
T C -
. U, C
-
.
,
,
. O
,
-
, -
.
E -
,
I-
M F S D R
. T IMF
C C IMF,
SDR
IMF
C
.
-
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BROOKINGS
56
T
P
W (2007) J 31, 2011. R
: IMFAnnualReportsonExchangeArrange-ments andExchangeRestrictions (AREAER, 200411). A .
Changes during January1.U C E P
A, (1) H
K S A R (SAR)-
M C
$6 $20 ; (2)
M C H K SAR
j j
M C ;
(3) M C HK ,
-
M
.
June27. F- -
.
June27.C
-
.
December 1. F , H K M,
. E
$200,000; ,
.
Changes during
January15. T
3 .
Changes during
April13. D -
;
-
- ; -
-
,
; -
; -
-
, -
j .
July1. T C
.
Appendix A: Changes to Capiital Controls in
China, -
-
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BROOKINGS
57
August29. T - -
-
$50,000 $200,000.
October1. T
-
.
November15. T
-
.
December1. T
.
Changes during
August1. T -
, -
. D -
j, SAFE ,
-
.
September29. W Q DI I, -
- .
September29. T QFII $800 $1
, - -
- - ,
September 1. N .
Changes during
February1. T -
$50,000 . R -
$50,000
.
March2. T S A F E- (SAFE) 2007 - -
C- 30
- 60
2006 . I , C-
- 30
-
60 2006
M 31, 2008.
August30. T SAFE
. SAFE -
- j $10
.
December9. T Q F I- I (QFII) $30 -
$10 .
Changes during
March7. R
.
July14. T
.
-
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BROOKINGS
58
, RMB
C
. T
, -
.
, -
6 12 ;
-
.
Changes during
August 17. F , -, H K SAR M SAR RMB
-
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BROOKINGS
59
T
-
. A -
.
AREAER IMFAnnualReportson
Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions;
HKMA H K M A; PBC P B C.
Changes during
January18. M - -
H K S A-
R (SAR). (AREAER 2004, 229,
A .)
January.P .(HKMA)
February25. P H K
SAR - ,
, RMBH
K ,
H K. (AREAER 2004, 229,
A .)
February 25. T PBC
,
. (PBC)
April1. T - -
$50,000
$20,000. (AREAER2004, 229, P -
.)
May 1. T
30 50 20 . (ARE-AER 2004, 229, E
)
May1. T
j -
. P,
. (AREAER 2004, 229,
E .)
August12.T PBC M
SAR. (PBC)
September8.M C
- -
- M SAR. (ARE-AER 2005, 235, A
.)
November1.T PBC
- -
. (PBC)
November 3. P MSAR -
Appendix B: Recent Developments Pertaining
to the International Use of the
Renminbi
-
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BROOKINGS
60
February18.T PBC -
-
. (PBC)
April6. A -
. (PBC)
April30. T PBC P-A I
F C-
,
C . (PBC)
May 18. T . T
C F E S
. (PBC)
June15.T PBC - . (PBC)
June17. N - .
(PBC)
August2.T -
, -
. (AREAER2006, 299, E -
.)
August 2. D
50 (-
, 30 ) 80 (, 50
)
; -
$200,000 (,
$100,000). (AREAER2006, 300, E -
.)
; ; -
, H K
, M ;
-
M SAR. (AREAER2005,
235, A
.)
November17. T C D B - -
-
. (PBC)
December28. F , PBC -
. (PBC)
Changes during
January1. T
C 20,000
6,000 . (PBC)
January 1. P
$20,000 . T
$20,000, . (AREAER2006, 300, P
.)
January10. R M C - -
T
K S. (ARE-AER 2006, 300, A
.)
January15. T
3 . (AREAER2006, 300, P-
.)
-
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BROOKINGS
61
October9. T A D B I F C
-
1 1.13 , -
, ,
C . (PBC)
November1. T PBC - H K -
-
. F,
PBC H
K .
December5. R-
F, G, I, L,
P, S, U S V-
. (AREAER2006, 300, A -
.)
December8. T PBC C C- B C D B -
-
. (PBC)
December13. T PBC - , -
. (PBC)
December15. R- B J. (AREAER2006, 300,
A .)
December18. T 13 21. (ARE-AER
, 272, E .)
December 28. T . (AREAER
2006, 300, E .)
August2. T PBC . (PBC)
August3. L : (1) I
, -
$5,000 $3,000; (2) -
,
$8,000 $5,000. (AREAER 2006, 300, P-
-
.)
August9. T PBC - ,
C C B C D-
B . (PBC)
August 15. I C F-
E S. T I
C B C C C-
B U.S.
.
August16.T S A F E-
(SAFE)
--
C
. T
-
,
. (PBC)
August30.T S C
-
. (PBC)
September 22. T SAFE .
(PBC)
-
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BROOKINGS
62
October20. A
. (AREAER
2007, 272, E .)
December 11. C - . U W
O , ,
,
C ,
,
. F
C B R C
- C
C 1
. (AREAER 2007, 272,
P
.)
December29. T C F E - S
. (PBC)
Changes during January4. T S I O R(SHIBOR) . (PBC)
January 14. T PBC
H K, j .
January15.T - 21 22. (AREAER2007, 273, E-
.)
February1.T
$50,000 $20,000. R
-
; ,
Changes during
January4.O-- -
. (PBC)
January24.T PBC - . (PBC)
March 10. T C F E - S C M E
(CME) C -
CME -
(PBC).
April 15. O ,
, ,
-
, . (AREAER2007, 273,
P .)
April18.T PBC - -
. (PBC)
May1. R - $20,000
. (AREAER 2007, 272, P-
-
.)
July.T PBC -
. (PBC)
September1.T I I R Q F I I (QFII)
S I C ,
QFII S I
C . (AREAER2007, 273, P -
.).
-
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BROOKINGS
63
,
. (PBC)
September 29. T PBC . (PBC)
Changes during
January18. T PBC . (PBC)
July 25. T C D F CP S .
August5.T
,
F E A
D; ,
. (AREAER2009, 539, E
.)
August20. T SAFE
Bj S, j
. (PBC)
August. T
$1 $800 (L D-
2011, 11).
December. T C B RC -
- --
(L D 2011,
10).
Changes during
January 7. T PBC
500
. (PBC)
;
-
-
SAFE. (AREAER2008, 321, P
.)
March20.A .
April9. T C F E S-
-
, -
. (PBC)
June7. T S G E
PBC -
. (PBC)
June26. R HK. (PBC)
July5.T Q D I I- (QDII) .
August12. D
-
. T
. (AREAER2008, 321, E-
.)
August17.R U.S. ,, , H K ,
. (PBC)
August20. T SAFE
. (PBC)
September3.T N A FM I I
-
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64
Changes during
March24. T PBC N B R B
. T C
. (PBC)
June 22. T PBC, ,j N E
P R S C-B
P. T
- .
C--
. C 20 M
. P-
,
. (PBC)
July7. H H I L - -
H K,
.
July13. T B C (H K) -
. (PBC)
July19. F H KSAR ,
. I ,
-
.
,
C J 2009 (AREAER 2011,
631, N A C.)
March16. T PBC HKMA -- .
March17.T SAFE N D S- E D Q
F I 2009, -
. (PBC)
March18.T PBC
. (PBC)
April8. T S C -
S, G, S, Z,
D -
. (PBC)
May14andJune24. T PBC B E A H K S
B C (C) 4 -
3 , , -
- H K. (PBC)
May. T M C
j - , ,
-
(L D 2011, 10).
July. R - . (PBC)
September28.T M F C - -
- H K. (HKMA)
November28.T I M C HC., L., S. (PBC)
December14.T PBC -
M. (PBC)
-
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BROOKINGS
65
November. I - - C
M U. (HKMA)
December8. T C -
-
365 67,359. (PBC)
December15. T R M I C- E .
(PBC)
December. T B C (H K) O- RMB B I, H K -
, .
Changes during
January 1. T SAFE -
C
: , -
, -
. -
, 18
.
C -. (AREAER2011, 632, E
.)
January 6. R 20 M
. P,
-
. B H K
. (AREAER
2011, 632, A - , HKMA.)
January.TB C - N
Y C.
August19. MD 200 ,
-
. (FinancialTimes)
August.T . (S C B)
October 1. N -
C
C-
M . L
(AREAER 2011, 632, N
.)
October1. P j : Bj,
G ( S), S (-
Q) J. E
j
SAFE
, , j.
I ,
SAFE. (ARE-AER 2011, 632, E
.)
October.A HKMA PBC 8
B C .
November22. T PBC C F-
E S R-
- . (PBC)
November 24. C 1 -
. (FinancialTimes)
-
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BROOKINGS
66
October16. T C G & S E -
H K. (CNBC, O 16)
October17. T M C
-
.
November 10. T PBC A C B -
C. (PBC)
November.JP M A M - $1 -
Q L P P-
,
- .
December16.R M C
(FinancialTimes, D 18, 2011).
December25. C J - ,
, ,
.
February 14. T PBC RMB-FOREX -
. (PBC)
February. T Q L F P(QLFP) S.
ird quarter. R- -
(FinancialTimes, S
29, 2011).
June23.T PBC - C B
R F. (PBC)
August 23. C- -