BALIUAG

GUIGUINTO

PLARIDEL

PULILAN

CALUMPIT

MALOLOS

BULACAN

PAOMBONG

HAGONOY

CANDABA

STA. ANA

MEXICO

ARAYAT

STO. TOMAS

MINALIN

MASANTOL

MACABEBE

APALIT

SAN LUIS

ZARAGOSA

GUIMBA

CABANGAN

HERMOSA

DINALUPIHAN

MORONGSAMAL

ORANI

ANGELES

CAPAS

STA. IGNACIA

MAYANTOC

MAGALANG

BAMBAN

PORAC

OLONGAPOSUBIC

CASTILLEJOS

GERONA

ALIAGA

JAEN

STA. ROSA

ZARAGOZA

SAN ANTONIO

CABIAO

VICTORIA

LA PAZ

CONCEPCION

TARLAC

SASMUAN

MABALACAT

SAN ANTONIO

BOTOLAN

IBA

PALAUIG

MASINLOC

SAN CLEMENTECAMILING

PANIQUI

RAMOS

PURA

MANGATAREM

CANDELARIA

FLOOD PRONE

LAHAR PRONE

1992 LAHAR

1991 LAHAR

PYROCLASTIC

LEGEND:

FLOW DEPOSIT

AREA

AREA

1993 LAHAR

AREA AT RISK

LAKE, SEA

DUE TO AVULSION

SAN FERNANDO

BACOLOR

STA. RITA

GUAGUA

LUBAO

FLORIDABLANCA

SAN FELIPE

SAN NARCISO

SAN MARCELINO

0 10km

GRAPHIC SCALE

1991 Pinatubo Eruption (Case 1)

1.20 million people affected by

eruption and subsequent lahars

200,000 people entered

evacuation centers (ECs)

21 municipalities remained to

be high risk from lahars over

the next 5-10 years

In May 1993, 72,335 were still

residing in 54 ECs

38,000 others had relocated in

official settlement sites

BALIUAG

GUIGUINTO

PLARIDEL

PULILAN

CALUMPIT

MALOLOS

BULACAN

PAOMBONG

HAGONOY

CANDABA

STA. ANA

MEXICO

ARAYAT

STO. TOMAS

MINALIN

MASANTOL

MACABEBE

APALIT

SAN LUIS

ZARAGOSA

GUIMBA

CABANGAN

HERMOSA

DINALUPIHAN

MORONGSAMAL

ORANI

ANGELES

CAPAS

STA. IGNACIA

MAYANTOC

MAGALANG

BAMBAN

PORAC

OLONGAPOSUBIC

CASTILLEJOS

GERONA

ALIAGA

JAEN

STA. ROSA

ZARAGOZA

SAN ANTONIO

CABIAO

VICTORIA

LA PAZ

CONCEPCION

TARLAC

SASMUAN

MABALACAT

SAN ANTONIO

BOTOLAN

IBA

PALAUIG

MASINLOC

SAN CLEMENTECAMILING

PANIQUI

RAMOS

PURA

MANGATAREM

CANDELARIA

FLOOD PRONE

LAHAR PRONE

1992 LAHAR

1991 LAHAR

PYROCLASTIC

LEGEND:

FLOW DEPOSIT

AREA

AREA

1993 LAHAR

AREA AT RISK

LAKE, SEA

DUE TO AVULSION

SAN FERNANDO

BACOLOR

STA. RITA

GUAGUA

LUBAO

FLORIDABLANCA

SAN FELIPE

SAN NARCISO

SAN MARCELINO

0 10km

GRAPHIC SCALE

• Completed 26Jul2001

• P2.303 Billion cost

• Restored reliability of Mac Arthur Highway (+Mabalacat/Bamban Bridges)

• Restored Concepcion by-pass/alternate road (+San Francisco Bridge)

• Contained lahar deposition in Sacobia-Bamban River

PHUMP Master Plan, Phase 1

PHUMP - Pinatubo Hazard Urgent Mitigation Project

BALIUAG

GUIGUINTO

PLARIDEL

PULILAN

CALUMPIT

MALOLOS

BULACAN

PAOMBONG

HAGONOY

CANDABA

STA. ANA

MEXICO

ARAYAT

STO. TOMAS

MINALIN

MASANTOL

MACABEBE

APALIT

SAN LUIS

ZARAGOSA

GUIMBA

CABANGAN

HERMOSA

DINALUPIHAN

MORONGSAMAL

ORANI

ANGELES

CAPAS

STA. IGNACIA

MAYANTOC

MAGALANG

BAMBAN

PORAC

OLONGAPOSUBIC

CASTILLEJOS

GERONA

ALIAGA

JAEN

STA. ROSA

ZARAGOZA

SAN ANTONIO

CABIAO

VICTORIA

LA PAZ

CONCEPCION

TARLAC

SASMUAN

MABALACAT

SAN ANTONIO

BOTOLAN

IBA

PALAUIG

MASINLOC

SAN CLEMENTECAMILING

PANIQUI

RAMOS

PURA

MANGATAREM

CANDELARIA

FLOOD PRONE

LAHAR PRONE

1992 LAHAR

1991 LAHAR

PYROCLASTIC

LEGEND:

FLOW DEPOSIT

AREA

AREA

1993 LAHAR

AREA AT RISK

LAKE, SEA

DUE TO AVULSION

SAN FERNANDO

BACOLOR

STA. RITA

GUAGUA

LUBAO

FLORIDABLANCA

SAN FELIPE

SAN NARCISO

SAN MARCELINO

0 10km

GRAPHIC SCALE

•Completed March 2006

•Cost of P4.524 Billion

•Rehabilitated & fortified megadike

• Widened Gapan-San Fernando-Olongapo (GSO) Road

•Reconstructed Mancatian Bridge across Megadike w/c re-established the Dinalupihan-Angeles Road

•Pilot dredged Pasac Delta & Third River areas

PHUMP Master Plan, Phase 2

BALIUAG

GUIGUINTO

PLARIDEL

PULILAN

CALUMPIT

MALOLOS

BULACAN

PAOMBONG

HAGONOY

CANDABA

STA. ANA

MEXICO

ARAYAT

STO. TOMAS

MINALIN

MASANTOL

MACABEBE

APALIT

SAN LUIS

ZARAGOSA

GUIMBA

CABANGAN

HERMOSA

DINALUPIHAN

MORONGSAMAL

ORANI

ANGELES

CAPAS

STA. IGNACIA

MAYANTOC

MAGALANG

BAMBAN

PORAC

OLONGAPOSUBIC

CASTILLEJOS

GERONA

ALIAGA

JAEN

STA. ROSA

ZARAGOZA

SAN ANTONIO

CABIAO

VICTORIA

LA PAZ

CONCEPCION

TARLAC

SASMUAN

MABALACAT

SAN ANTONIO

BOTOLAN

IBA

PALAUIG

MASINLOC

SAN CLEMENTECAMILING

PANIQUI

RAMOS

PURA

MANGATAREM

CANDELARIA

FLOOD PRONE

LAHAR PRONE

1992 LAHAR

1991 LAHAR

PYROCLASTIC

LEGEND:

FLOW DEPOSIT

AREA

AREA

1993 LAHAR

AREA AT RISK

LAKE, SEA

DUE TO AVULSION

SAN FERNANDO

BACOLOR

STA. RITA

GUAGUA

LUBAO

FLORIDABLANCA

SAN FELIPE

SAN NARCISO

SAN MARCELINO

0 10km

GRAPHIC SCALE

Structural Measures •Flood damage mitigation, channel improvement in Porac-Gumain River •Drainage efficiency improvement in Pasac Delta & San Fernando River (link up w/ Third River)

Non-structural Measures •Study on extent of watershed degradation, its effects & causes • Integrated plan for comprehensive non-structural measures land use plan formulation rehabilitation options in

upper Porac-Gumain River basins flood management plan

& flood forecasting and warning system institutional set-up for

sustainable O&M of PHUMP 2 & 3 works identifying other priority

non-engineering sub-projects`

PHUMP, Phase 3 (Flood/Mudflow Control

Works for Porac-Gumain River in Pasac Delta

& San Fernando City (P4.132 billion)

Place: Mun. Town Hall, Guagua

Depth: 1.2m (max.)

Duration: (Still Inundated, as of July 19)

Place: Sto. Tomas, Lubao

Depth: 0.6m (ave.)

Duration: (Still Inundated, as of July 19)

Place: Mun. Town Hall, Sasmuan

Depth: 1.0m (max.)

Duration: (Still Inundated, as of July 19)

FLOODING SITUATION DUE TO TYPHOON GLORIA (JULY 2002)

0 0.50 1.0

2.0 km.

0.1 - 0.30 M

1 day – 1 Week

0.3 - 0.60 M

1 Wk to 1-Mon.

Inundation Map of City of San Fernando

0.6 M

Mon.

LAND USE INUNDATION ESTIMATED AVERAGE ESTIMATED

CLASS DEPTH NO. OF UNITS ASSESS VALUE FLOOD

DAMAGE

(m) km2 (500m2/Unit) 750,000/UNIT (Pesos)

0.1-0.3m 3.83 7660 5,745,000,000 0.025 143,625,000

0.3-0.6m 5.02 10040 7,530,000,000 0.03 225,900,000

> 0.6m 2.44 4880 3,660,000,000 0.035 128,100,000

km2 (1,000m2/Unit) 1,500,000/UNIT

0.1-0.3m 1.09 1090 1,635,000,000 0.025 40,875,000

0.3-0.6m 1.01 1010 1,515,000,000 0.03 45,450,000

> 0.6m 0 0 0 0.035 0

km2 (HECTARE) 195,000/HECTARE

0.1-0.3m 1.38 138 26,910,000 0.025 672,750

0.3-0.6m 0.75 75 14,625,000 0.03 438,750

> 0.6m 0.22 22 4,290,000 0.035 150,150

km2 (3,000m2/Unit) 3,000,000/UNIT

0.1-0.3m 0.1 33 100,000,000 0.02 2,000,000

0.3-0.6m 0.09 30 90,000,000 0.025 2,250,000

> 0.6m 0 0 0 0.03 0

km2 (5,000m2/Unit) 2,000,000/UNIT

0.1-0.3m 0.04 8 16,000,000 0.02 320,000

0.3-0.6m 0 0 0 0.04 0

> 0.6m 0 0 0 0.05 0

0.1-0.3m 0.02 0 0 0 0

0.3-0.6m 0 0 0 0 0

> 0.6m 0 0 0 0 0

TOTAL 589,781,650

Source: Factor applied from the Study on Flood Control and Drainage Project in Metro Manila, Volume 1 Main Report, 1990, JICA

ESTIMATED FLOOD DAMAGES IN SURVEY AREA(NORTH AND SOUTH BLOCK )

AREAFACTOR

COMMERCIAL

RESIDENTIAL

OPEN SPACE

INDUSTRIAL

INSTITUTIONAL

AGRICULTURAL

*

* See Angeles

Values

Objectives The project is part of the over-all engineering intervention works whose ultimate aim

is to rehabilitate affected areas devastated by the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, restore

conditions at least to pre-eruption levels, and provide the necessary facilities to

protect lives, properties, settlements, against lahar deposition and or flooding. Its

objective/purpose is to improve drainage, reduce extent, & minimize the duration of

flooding in Pasac Delta and Porac-Gumain river influence areas in the Province of

Pampanga. Specifically, the project aims to:

Reduce inundation depth from 1.5 – 1.8 meters to 0.60 – 0.90 meters in

the affected areas during 20-year flood event; and

a)

Shorten inundation time from 45 days to 10 days, and 10 days to 2-3

days during 20-year and 2-year flood event, respectively.

b)

Flooding was reduced in terms of area covered, duration and depth as follows

2-year flood 5-year flood 20-year flood

Area (ha) Days Depth Area (ha) Days Depth Area (ha) Days Depth

Without

Project

47,100.00 9 0.3-0.4 49,600.00 18 0.6-0.3 51,900.00 45 1.5-1.8

With

Project

29,000.00 2 0.1-0.2 35,500.00 4 0.2-.03 46,200.00 10 0.6-0.9

The following direct damages from flooding & lahar deposition are avoided:

a) Properties : P 198.96 M/Yr

P 26.02 M/Yr - Roads & bridges

P 119.68 M/Yr - Residential houses

P 53.26 M/Yr - Commercial bldgs & establishments

b) Agri-production : P 411.82 M/Yr.

P 136.08 M/Yr - rice or 13,608 ton (P 10.0/kg raw rice/paddy)

P 275.74 M/Yr - fish or 4,596 ton (P 60.00/kg)

c) Income losses : P 1,127.07 M/Yr (35 days) or

P 24,381 / HH / year or

P 4,583 / person / year

PHUMP Phase III Benefit Estimates

1. BASE CASE

(a) Project Cost

Investment cost : PhP 4,132 Mil.

(b) Project Benefits (per year) : PhP 1,670 Mil.

Avoided damage to property : PhP 198 Mil.

Avoided damage to agricultural production : PhP 412 Mil.

Avoided losses to livelihood : PhP 1,127 Mil.

(c) O/M cost per year : PhP 36 Mil.

(d) Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) : 31.84%

2. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Case EIRR (%) Remarks

1 28.81 Investment costs increase by 10%

2 28.49 Benefits decrease by 10%

3 26.47 Case 1 plus Case 2

4 26.95 Investment costs increase by 20%

5 25.88 Benefits decrease by 20%

6 22.35 Case 4 plus Case 5

Indicator Base Case

Cost Increase Benefit Decrease Combination

+10% +20% -10% -20%

+10%C/ -

10%B

+20%C/ -

20%B

IRR (%) 31.84

29.64

27.72 29.31

26.64

27.23

23.02

NPV (15%) 3,245.8

3,025.2

2,804.6 2,678.5 2,111.2 2,457.9

1,669.9

B/C 4.97 4.52

4.14 4.45 3.94 4.05 3.28

PHUMP Phase III Economic Evaluation

• Resettlement : 110 households (approx.)

– CP-2 40 households

– CP-3a/3b 40 households

– CP-4 30 households

• Land Acquisition :

– Structural areas : 203 ha

• Residential 1.0 ha

• Rice field 16.0 ha

• Fishpond 186.0 ha

– Spoil disposal areas in construction stage : about 311 ha

– Possible free spoil site areas within the Mun. of Guagua, 125

has.(approx.)

Projected cost of ROW acquisition of about P 537 million is needed to undertake

these activities. Acquisition of fishpond, rice field, and residential lots were

estimated at P 100.00/m2, P 250.00/m2, and P 1,500.00/m2, respectively.

Social and Environmental Evaluation

Estimated cost of residential structures ranges from PHP 4T/m2,

PHP 6T/m2, PHP 7.5T/m2 and PHP 10T/m2.

Affected Structures/Improvements

Note: Cost of structures/improvements based on actual estimate. Valuation based on

replacement cost method per Section 10, RA 8974 IRR

Devt Challenge

Goal Objective/ Target

Strategy / Policy

Program/Projects/ Activities

Flooding aggravated by the effects of the Pinatubo eruption along the influence areas of Porac-Gumain and San Fernando Rivers in Pampanga (refer to Table 5-7 for details)

Rehabilitate Pinatubo eruption affected areas, restore conditions to at least the pre-eruption levels, and institute measures to protect settlements, industrial and other socio-economic development against lahar deposition and flooding.

Reduce flood risks by implementing measures to reduce extent & minimize duration of flooding as follows:

Porac-Gumain: • Reduce inundation

depth from 1.5-1.8 meters to 0.60-0.90 meters during 20-year flood event; and shorten inundation time from 45 days to 10 days, and 10 days to 2-3 days during 20-year and 2-year flood event, respectively.

San Fernando: • Reduce inundation

depth from 0.3-0.6 meters down to 0.1- 0.2 meters; shorten inundation time from 18 days down to 4 days

Secure the reliability of the region’s major arterial roads and other key infrastructure facilities.

• Implement flood/mudflow control measures in order to (1) mitigate flood damages by channel improvement works in the Porac-Gumain River; (2) improve drainage efficiencies of river channel networks in the Pasac Delta, including the Fernando river & its efficient link up with the Third River.

• Plan out and Implement non-structural measures and institutional capability building in order to complement and ensure effectiveness of the instituted structural measures

• Retrofit key roads and infrastructures corresponding to the worst case scenario.

Pinatubo Hazard Urgent Mitigation Project (PHUMP) - Phase III Part I: Flood/Mudflow Control Works Dredging/excavation of major (Pasac, Guagua & Dalan Bapor) rivers, 19.2 km in length River diversion of the lower Porac-Gumain River to Pampanga Bay, 18.7km in length (7.2km with dike & 11.5km without dike) Improvement of 6 local drainage channels (14.7 km) & partial relocation of 2 channels (4.5 km) Construction of new bridges and raising of key roads & bridges. Dredging, excavation, improvement & embankment protection of San Fernando River & tributaries (with upgrading of Panlumacan Bridge & approaches)

Part II: Monitoring and Planning of Non-structural Measures and Institutional Capability Building (ICB) Formulation of comprehensive land use plan/s covering the entire watershed (with ROW acquisition & resettlement plan); Optimum rehabilitation options in the upstream stretch of Porac and Gumain river basins; Instituting flood forecasting and warning system (FFWS); Formulation of flood management plans of downstream LGUs; Formulation of development framework plan (ID institutional set-up and requirements); and Ensuring sustainable operation & maintenance of PHUMP II and III. Widening/Improvement of GSO Road & Emergency Dredging Project Widening/improvement of critical GSO Road sections; Raising of Sta. Cruz Bridge; and Dredging of critical waterways affecting GSO Road

Table 5-14 Development Planning Framework (The Case of Flooding in Pampanga)

Reconstructed hospital considering worst scenario flooding

LIVING WITH THE FLOODS ADB-FAO Tonle Sap Environmental Management Project

Kingdom of Cambodia

Team Leader: E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.