1 recipient of james watt gold medal churches together in brundall february 29 th 2012 the triple...
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Each person in the UK is continuously using 5kW resulting in the emission of 9 tonnes per annum. In America twice as much energy is consumed Developed Countries constitute just over 10% of World’s Population >>Consume over 50% of energy and other resources Is this fair? 20% of population consume < 5% of resources and the majority in this group do not have access to clean drinking water Is this fair? What can we do about it? – it seems like an impossible task 3 The Triple Challenges for Christians of Climate Change, Energy Security and Cost - a Route to a Fair and Sustainable Future A Brief Resume of Climate Change and Overview of Energy Demand Energy Security Issues – particularly for the UK Reducing Demand through Awareness and good Management Renewable Energy Options for a Sustainable Future Conclusions and ReflectionsTRANSCRIPT
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Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal
Churches Together in BrundallFebruary 29th 2012
The Triple Challenges for Christians of Climate Change, Energy Security and Cost - a Route to a Fair and Sustainable Future?
Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnvReader Emeritus: University of East Anglia
Genesis 1:26 “ ......God made man to have dominion of the earth”Some versions “ ....... God made man ruler over the earth”? Dominion ? Rule ??Jesus taught by challenging people to think and ponderMatthew: 19:21 - the parable of the Rich Man“.... Go and sell all you have ..........”“......... It is harder for a rich person to enter the Kingdom of God than for a camel to go
through the eye of a needle”A good teacher leaves the audience with something to ponder not to tell his students what
they should do.Mark 12:17. “Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar’s and to God the things that
are God’s “- demonstrates joined up thinking prompts us to think of the consequence of our actions.- In Bhuddism the Pali Canon urges believers in that faith to think about the consequences
of their actions
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The Triple Challenges for Christians of Climate Change, Energy Security and Cost - a Route to a Fair and Sustainable Future?
Each person in the UK is continuously using 5kW resulting in the emission of 9 tonnes per annum.In America twice as much energy is consumedDeveloped Countries constitute just over 10% of World’s Population >>Consume over 50% of energy and other resources Is this fair?20% of population consume < 5% of resources and the majority in this group do not have access to clean drinking water Is this fair?What can we do about it? – it seems like an impossible task
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The Triple Challenges for Christians of Climate Change, Energy Security and Cost - a Route to a Fair and Sustainable Future
• A Brief Resume of Climate Change and Overview of Energy Demand• Energy Security Issues – particularly for the UK• Reducing Demand through Awareness and good Management• Renewable Energy Options for a Sustainable Future• Conclusions and Reflections
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Increasing Occurrence of Drought
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Increasing Occurrence of Flood
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19792003
Climate Change: Changes in the Artic 1979 - 2003
• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region
• NASA satellite imagery• في الجليد الصيف
الشمالي القطبالمنطقة تغطيةالقطبيه
• الصور ناساالفضاءيه
Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
•20% reduction in 24 yearsفي ٪ 20• سنوات 24تخفيض
المناختغير كاب القطبيه الجليديه على 2003 - 1979 اثار
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Is Global Warming natural or man-made?
Natural causes• Earth’s Orbit• Sunspot Activity• Volcanic Eruptions • Etc.
Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960
Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period.
BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement
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Global Surface TemperaturesIn 2010 we had one of the warmest ever January – February periods. Some people say surely it was coldest for 30 yearsBut why do people not account for the record breaking high
temperatures in the tropics, Australia etc?5th Warmest for January
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• Winter: October – March: • Summer: April to September• Compared to 1960 – in 2010,
– 13.1% less heating needed– And 106% more cooling.
Temperature variations in East AngliaTemperature rise in East Anglia over last 50 years is unequivocal
2010 was one a particularly warm year despite cold spells in Europe in January and December
NASA says it tied as being warmestwww.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/.../HQ_11-014_Warmest_Year.htm
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10Per capita Carbon Emissions
UK
How does UK compare with other countries?Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others?
What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?
France
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•Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport.
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Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions.
Fuel Approximate emission factor
per kWh
Comments
Coal ~900 – 1000g Depending on grade and efficiency of power station
Oil ~800-900 Depending on grade and efficiency of power station
Gas (Steam) ~600gGas (CCGT) 400 – 430g Assuming CCGT – lower value
for YarmouthNuclear 5 – 10g Depending on reactor typeRenewables ~ 0 For wind, PV, hydro
• Transmission/Distribution losses in UK ~ 8-8.5%• In India ~ 20 – 25%
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Carbon Emissions and Electricity
UKFrance
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r
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Electricity Generation i n selected Countries
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0
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1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
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etre
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Actual UK productionActual UK demandProjected productionProjected demand
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Import Gap
Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UKGas Production and Demand in UK On 7th/8th December 2010: UK
Production was only 39%: 12% from storage and 49% from
imports
Prices have become much more volatile since UK is no longer self sufficient in gas.
In recent years, electricity retail prices have varied much less than wholesale prices and have also risen less.
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Variation in Wholesale and Retail Electriity Prices
In Real Terms, Domestic Electricity Prices have only recently returned to 1981 levels
6th Feb 2012 08:42 GMTGazprom Expects Gap Between EU Gas Requests this week
By Anna Shiryaevskaya Russia’s natural-gas export monopoly, said it expects a gap between requests from European customers and the amount it can supply during the cold snap. Gazprom is supplying at the maximum capacity.
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Matthew Brown and Ben Farey (Bloomberg)2012-02-23 06:24:37.12 GMTTraders in U.K. natural gas are grappling with the most changeable prices in more than two years U.K. day-ahead gas jumped to 101.5 pence a therm on Feb. 7, from 64.5 pence on Feb. 2.
Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s so cannot help
short term.
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers/costs
Energy Review
2002
New Predictions
9th May 2011 (*)
Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (at present 45-50%)
Available now (but gas is running out –
imported prices much higher)
~2p + 8.0p
[5 - 11]
nuclear fission (long term)
0 - 15% (France 80%) - (currently 18% and
falling)
new inherently safe designs - some
development needed2.5 - 3.5p 7.75p
[5.5 - 10]
nuclear fusion unavailable not available until 2040 at earliest not until 2050 for significant impact
"Clean Coal" Coal currently ~40% but scheduled to fall
Available now: Not viable without Carbon
Capture & Sequestration
2.5 - 3.5p
[7.5 - 15]p - unlikely
before 2025
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
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12000
14000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity (M
W)
New Build ?ProjectedActual
Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020.
?
Plans for the UK's first carbon capture project at the Longannet power station in Fife costing £1bn have been scrapped, the energy secretary has confirmed.
19 October 2011 Last updated at 16:35 Longannet carbon capture scheme
scrapped
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Future prices from
* Renewable Energy Review – 9th May 2011 Climate Change Committee
1.5MW TurbineAt peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes
On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002
(Gas ~ 2p)
Predictions May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]
available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002
(Gas ~ 2p)
Predictions May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]
available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p
Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich
Climate Change Committee (9th May 2011) see offshore wind as being very expensive and recommends reducing planned expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50%some technical
development needed to reduce costs.
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002
(Gas ~ 2p)
Predictions May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]
available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50%some technical
development needed to reduce costs.
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at
Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.
Rated capacity 5.5 kW
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but
limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW projects
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002
(Gas ~ 2p)
Predictions May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]
available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50%some technical
development needed to reduce costs.
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but
limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW projects
Climate Change Report suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) might be achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW.
Photovoltaic<<5% even
assuming 10 GW of installation
available, but much further research needed to bring down
costs significantly15+ p 25p +/-8
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002
(Gas ~ 2p)
Predictions May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]
available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50%some technical
development needed to reduce costs.
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but
limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW projects
Photovoltaic<<5% even assuming
10 GW of installation
available, but much further research needed to bring down costs significantly
15+ p 25p +/-8
To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass
Sewage, Landfill, Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas
??5% available, but research needed in some areas e.g. advanced gasification
2.5 - 4p7 - 13p
depending on technology
Transport Fuels:
• Biodiesel?
• Bioethanol?
• Compressed gas from methane from waste.
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas
~ 2p)
Predictions May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% available but costly ~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW projects
Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very costly 15+ p 25p +/-8
Biomass ??5% available, but research needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p
Wave/Tidal Stream
currently < 10 MW may be
1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)
technology limited - major development not
before 20204 - 8p
19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p
+/- 7.5p Wave
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas
~ 2p)
Predictions May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% available but costly ~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW projects
Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very costly 15+ p 25p +/-8
Biomass ??5% available, but research needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p
Wave/Tidal Stream
currently < 10 MW may be
1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)
techology limited - major development not
before 20204 - 8p
19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p
+/- 7.5p Wave
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas
~ 2p)
Predictions May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% available but costly ~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW projects
Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very costly 15+ p 25p +/-8
Biomass ??5% available, but research needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p
Wave/Tidal Stream
currently < 10 MW may be
1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)
technology limited - major development not
before 20204 - 8p
19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p
+/- 7.5p Wave
Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages have been considered frequently
e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009Severn Barrage could provide 5-8%
of UK electricity needs
In Orkney – Churchill BarriersOutput ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south.
Would save 40000 tonnes of CO2
Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%
technology available but unlikely for 2020. Construction time ~10 years.
In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development
26p +/-5
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas
~ 2p)
Predictions May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% available but costly ~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW
Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very costly 15+ p 25p +/-8
Biomass ??5% available, but research needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p
Wave/Tidal Stream
currently < 10 MW ??1000 - 2000 MW
(~0.1%)
technology limited - major development not
before 20204 - 8p 19p Tidal
26.5p Wave
Tidal Barrages 5 - 15% In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development 26p +/-5
Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002
(Gas ~ 2p)
Predictions May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind ~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% available but costly ~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW
Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very costly 15+ p 25p +/-8
Biomass ??5% available, but research needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p
Wave/Tidal Stream
currently < 10 MW ??1000 - 2000
MW (~0.1%)
technology limited - major development not
before 20204 - 8p 19p Tidal
26.5p Wave
Tidal Barrages 5 - 15% In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development 26p +/-5
Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
Demonstrates importance of on shore wind for next decade or so
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Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?.
Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 10 - 20 years.[very expensive or technically immature or both]
If our answer is NODo we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal?
• then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee [9th May 2011]
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
Our Choices: They are difficult
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Our Choices: They are difficultIf our answer is YESBy 2020
• we will be dependent on GAS for around 70% of our heating and electricity
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, AlgeriaAre we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
TWh
Nuclear new nuclear coal new coal CCSoil Other Renewables onshore wind offshore windUK gas Imported gas Demand
Existing Nuclear
Existing Coal
Oil
UK GasImported
Gas
New Nuclear
New Coal
Other Renewables
Offshore Wind
Onshore Wind
• 1 new nuclear station completed each year after 2020.• 1 new coal station fitted with CCS each year after 2020•1 million homes fitted with PV each year from 2020 - 40% of homes fitted by 2030 •19 GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now
Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.
Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation
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How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
Raising Awareness
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Raising Awareness
• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.
• Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)
• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year.
• Filling up with petrol (~£50 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
上海徐汇区高第一小学
• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya
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The Behavioural Dimension: Awareness raisingElectricity Consumption
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Social Attitudes towards energy consumption have a profound effect on actual consumption
Data collected from 114 houses in Norwich between mid November 2006 and mid March 2007
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For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER] can vary by as much as 9 times.
When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times
Electricity Consumption in an Office Building in East Anglia
05000
1000015000200002500030000350004000045000
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
2003 2004 2005
Con
sum
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Wh)
• Consumption rose to nearly double level of early 2005. • Malfunction of Air-conditioning plant.• Extra fuel cost £12 000 per annum ~£1000 to repair fault• Additional CO2 emitted ~ 100 tonnes.
Low Energy Lighting Installed
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kWh % cost Rank % Renewables Norwich 3,535 79% 6 0.0%Ipswich 4,349 97% 159 0.0%Waveney 4,417 99% 181 1.9%Broadland 4,618 103% 231 3.0%Great Yarmouth 4,699 105% 252 30.0%St Edmundsbury 4,869 109% 280 1.0%Breckland 5,028 112% 312 31.8%Forest Heath 5,174 116% 336 0.0%Babergh 5,252 117% 343 0.1%South Norfolk 5,347 119% 358 5.0%Suffolk Coastal 5,371 120% 360 1.0%North Norfolk 5,641 126% 385 1.3%Mid Suffolk 5,723 128% 390 18.3%King's Lynn and West Norfolk 5,731 128% 393 2.5%UK Average 4478• % of average cost of electricity bills compared to National Average • Rank position in UK out of 408 Local Authorities
Average house in Norwich emits 1.87 tonnes of CO2 from electricity consumptionin Kings Lynn 3.04 tonnes of CO2 (based on UK emission factors)
Average household electricity bill in Norwich is 64% that in Kings Lynn
Average Domestic Electricity Consumption in Norfolk and Suffolk
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Electricity Supply in Norfolk and Suffolk (GWh)
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• 2009 Data for Renewables and Sizewell• Other Data based on typical load factors
Existing Renewables
Sizewell B
Great Yarmouth
• Total generation in Norfolk and Suffolk (allowing for losses) ~ 11000 GWh
• Total demand in Norfolk and Suffolk = 7803 GWh• Net export to remainder of UK ~ 3200
GWh
At £12.50 per tonne (EU-ETS price), this represents a benefit of £18 million to rest of UK in carbon saved.
Export of Electricity to rest of UK
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Sustainable Options for the future?Energy Generation•Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic installations, hotels – generally lees suitable for other businesses
•Solar PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation
• Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in Norwich – generates 826kWh/year (average over 7 years).
• The more hot water you use the more solar heat you get!
• Renewable Heat Incentive available from 2012
• Area required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm depending on technology and manufacturer
• Approximate annual estimate of generation
= installed capacity * 8760 * 0.095
hours in year load/capacity factor of 9.5%
Data from BMREPORTS for 2010Changes in output over 30 minute periodWindMax: 914 MWMin: – 1051 MWStDev : 37.8 MWNuclearMax: 1630 MWMin: - 877 MWStDev: 39.9MW
How Variable is Wind Energy?Data for Sun/Mon 25/26 Sep 2011
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How Variable is Wind Energy?70% of Wind Output is now Visible to National Grid
Predictions are made 2 days and 1 day in advance and demonstrate a correlation comparable with the prediction of demand variations.
Prediction made mid-afternoon for next 48 hoursPrediction made 1 day later and typically for output 24 hours in advanceActual Output in last week of January 2012
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Options available for the HouseholderEnergy Generation•Micro Wind - roof mounted turbines
•Mini Wind - mast mounted turbines – can be good as long as well clear of buildings, trees, etc – can be a good option for farms
Building Mounted - ~ 1kW machines ~ generally poor performance because of turbulence except in a few locationsNot generally recommended
Mast mounted away from buildings - 6kW Potential output 6000 – 10000 kWh depending on location
Vertical Axis machine – better in turbulence
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Alternative Strategies for Financing• Consumer purchases system and benefits from both reduction in
imported electricity and Feed In Tariff – suitable for both domestic and commercial properties for those who are capital rich but income poor.
• Company pays for and installs system and claims the Feed In Tariff – the owner of land benefits from reduced energy bills – for those with limited capital and less concerned with income.
• Schemes exist for • small wind – e.g. Windcrop who offer 5kW turbines which are less
affected by planning issues • Domestic/community PV up to 50kW
Images courtesy of WindCropHonningham Thorpe, Norfolk
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Options available for the HouseholderEnergy Generation•Onshore Wind - sensible for community schemes – e.g. Orkney, Germany, Denmark etc – the cheapest form of renewable energy
• Biomass boilers - can be sensible but need a reliable fuel supply. In cost terms with the proposed Renewable Heat Incentive there are attractions for homes heated by oil or electricity but not, at present, mains gas.
• Most convenient if running on pellets
• Cheaper with wood chip but more difficult to automate
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Ground Source: Heat Pumps
Typically twice floor area of house is required for heat collection.Best performance with under floor heating – i.e difference between heat supply and source temperature is as low as possible
Zones of house can be controlled via a manifold
Options available for the Householder – Heat Pumps
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Heat pumps run off electricity
For a well designed ground source heat pump system: Typically 3.5 – 4.5 as much heat is produced as electricity consumed – the Coefficient of Performance (COP).
If a buffer tank is included in system, then off peak electricity can be used to heat store overnight – minimising use of full rate electricity.
Air source heat pumps require external fan system, and are not as efficient as air temperature is low when most heat is needed.
Retro fitting with existing radiators will lead to poor COP, but could be improved by fitting double radiators and/or a buffer tank
Options available for the Householder – Heat Pumps
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Micro CHP
Replaces normal boiler
Provides heat and electricity – would normally run on gas
Currently there are incentives under the Feed In Tariff.
Options available for the Householder – CHP
• To be eligible to claim for any Incentive the installation must be installed by a registered MCS installer.
• Certificate of installation must be presented at time of registration.
All microgeneration Installations such as solar, wind, biomass, heat pumps, CHP must
be MCS Accredited
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Seeking Effective Low Carbon Solutions for Energy Supply• Small scale solar PV under the Feed in Tariff (@43.3p/kWh)• ~ £700+ per tonne CO2 saved• Large Scale On-shore wind under Renewable obligation• ~ £90+ per tonne CO2 saved
713 7000 MWh on shore wind generated at an extra cost of £265.4MTotal generated = 361 110 000 MWh: Effective subsidy = 0.07p / kWh ~
0.6% on domestic bills or ~2% with all renewables consideredCompared to rises of 20%+ mostly from increases in fossil fuelsSubsidy for onshore wind is being cut by 10% in near future
• Cavity Insulation• ~ <<£20 per tonne CO2 saved
• There will be an increased demand for electricity in a future which promotes conservation of energy! - heat pumps – electric vehicles
• Effective Energy Management can often be cost negative in terms of CO2 saved.
• An effective strategy will focus on most cost effective solutions both in the short term and long term.
Data from Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2011
Conclusions: A Strategy for Future Sustainable Energy Supply • Will require:• Effective Awareness and Energy Management;• Improved Technology to make better use of existing energy;• Low Carbon Energy Supply – including:
– Cost effective and technically mature renewables – Nuclear (?)– Carbon Capture and Sequestration – but this will not be
available until mid 2020s on scale required if then. • Only On Shore Wind (??? Some biomass) will be most cost
effective solutions for renewable energy until at least 2020• Large Scale Wind is often meeting stiff opposition from
planning issues – many of which are red-herrings• Innovative solutions for financing
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1.33 billion people
0.94 billion people
Raw materials
1.03 billion people
Products: 478 Mtonnes
CO 2 increase in 3 years
Aid & Education
The Unbalanced Triangular Trade
Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years
Water issues are equally important.
Each tonne of steel imported from a developing country consumes ~ 40 - 50 tonnes of water
Ethical Issues
Conclusions and Reflections (1)• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades
• Energy Security will become increasingly important, particularly in the UK.
• Energy costs are rising mostly from increasing scarcity of traditional fossil fuels
• Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity and cost increases more likely in future.
• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of renewable energy and small changes in behaviour
It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.
• What about our Christian response?
• Do we ignore these warnings?
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Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
FINALLY "If you do not change direction, you may end up
where you are heading."
(直译):“如果你不改变,你将止步于原地。”
www.uea.ac.uk/~e680/cred/creduea.htm
This presentation will be available from tomorrow at
Conclusions and Reflections (1)• Together we can make a difference> a sustainable future for all our children and those overseas• Even we might have to decide whether to drive 1.6 miles or
heat our home for one hour.• Remember the story about the camel and the eye of a needle• Matthew: 19:26. “...for God anything is possible” – so let us
ask God to show us the way forward
Act of Commitment• As we celebrate the goodness, diversity and wonder of God’s
creation, we admit our collective guilt in allowing species to become so swiftly extinct, in depleting finite energy and raw materials, and in polluting the earth’s soil, water and atmosphere. Let us be ready to change the way we think and live.
• Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come.
• Let us commit ourselves, as individuals and within our churches, to do all we can to heal and restore the damage people have caused to God’s earth, and to develop sustainable lifestyles, both for ourselves and to inspire others.
• Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come.
• Let us commit ourselves to do all in our power to support church communities planning a better way of living in their localities.
• Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come.
Act of Commitment
• Let each of us commit ourselves to play our part and take what action we can to cherish God’s creation.
• Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come.
• We pledge to pray and work for an environmentally sustainable and socially just world, in the interest of all earth’s Inhabitants, both present and future generations, and for the well-being and flourishing of the whole earth.
Amen